Intrinsic value of Jewett-Cameron Trading - JCTCF

Previous Close

$8.60

  Intrinsic Value

$3.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-63%

Previous close

$8.60

 
Intrinsic value

$3.15

 
Up/down potential

-63%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of JCTCF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.20
  17.78
  16.50
  15.35
  14.32
  13.38
  12.55
  11.79
  11.11
  10.50
  9.95
  9.46
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
Revenue, $m
  57
  67
  78
  90
  103
  117
  131
  147
  163
  180
  198
  217
  236
  257
  278
  300
  323
  347
  371
  397
  424
  452
  480
  511
  542
  574
  608
  644
  681
  719
Variable operating expenses, $m
  52
  61
  72
  83
  94
  107
  120
  135
  150
  165
  182
  199
  217
  235
  255
  275
  296
  318
  340
  364
  389
  414
  440
  468
  497
  527
  558
  590
  624
  660
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  52
  61
  72
  83
  94
  107
  120
  135
  150
  165
  182
  199
  217
  235
  255
  275
  296
  318
  340
  364
  389
  414
  440
  468
  497
  527
  558
  590
  624
  660
Operating income, $m
  5
  6
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
EBITDA, $m
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
Tax expense, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
Net income, $m
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
  64
  70
  77
  85
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  199
  211
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
  64
  70
  77
  85
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  199
  211
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.591
  2.577
  2.600
  2.571
  2.575
  2.600
  2.569
  2.579
  2.547
  2.571
  2.571
  2.553
  2.565
  2.570
  2.574
  2.564
  2.563
  2.570
  2.559
  2.561
  2.570
  2.568
  2.567
  2.568
  2.569
  2.563
  2.565
  2.566
  2.570
  2.568
Average production assets, $m
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
Working capital, $m
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
Total liabilities, $m
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
Total equity, $m
  19
  23
  26
  30
  35
  40
  44
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  109
  117
  126
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  184
  195
  206
  218
  231
  244
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  46
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  108
  117
  125
  135
  145
  155
  166
  176
  188
  199
  212
  224
  237
  251
  266
  281
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd. is a holding company for JC USA Inc. The Company operates through four segments, which include Industrial wood products; Lawn, garden, pet and other; Seed processing and sales, and Industrial tools and clamps. The Company's Industrial wood products segment reflects the business conducted by Greenwood Products, Inc., which is a processor and distributor of industrial wood products. The Company's Lawn, garden, pet and other segment reflects the business of Jewett-Cameron Company, which is a wholesaler of wood products and a manufacturer and distributor of specialty metal products. The Company's Seed processing and sales segment reflects the business of Jewett-Cameron Seed Company, which processes and distributes agricultural seed. The Company's Industrial tools and clamps segment reflects the business of MSI-PRO Co., which imports and distributes products, including pneumatic air tools, industrial clamps and saw blades.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Jewett-Cameron Trading (JCTCF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

JCTCF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JCTCF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $47.701056 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Jewett-Cameron Trading. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Jewett-Cameron Trading. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JCTCF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for JCTCF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Jewett-Cameron Trading, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Jewett-Cameron Trading.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JCTCF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JCTCF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Jewett-Cameron Trading.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Jewett-Cameron Trading. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JCTCF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JCTCF are equal to 6.6%.

Life of production assets of 11.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Jewett-Cameron Trading operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JCTCF is equal to 21.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $19.724371 million for Jewett-Cameron Trading - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 4.457 million for Jewett-Cameron Trading is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Jewett-Cameron Trading at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Jewett-Cameron Announces 3rd Quarter Financial Results   [Jul-11-18 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Jewett-Cameron Announces 2 for 1 Stock Split   [May-09-18 04:45PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Jewett-Cameron Announces 2nd Quarter Financial Results   [Apr-16-18 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Jewett-Cameron Announces 1st Quarter Financial Results   [Jan-16-18 04:25PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Jewett-Cameron Announces Fiscal 2017 Financial Results   [Nov-13-17 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Stocks Showing Improved Relative Strength: GMS   [Aug-30-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Jewett-Cameron Announces 3rd Quarter Financial Results   [Jul-17-17 04:35PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Jewett-Cameron Announces 2nd Quarter Financial Results   [Apr-13-17 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10-Q for Jewett-Cameron Trading Co. Ltd.   [Jul-22  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Jewett-Cameron Trading Co. Ltd.   [Apr-23  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Jewett-Cameron Trading Co. Ltd.   [Jan-16  07:07PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Jewett-Cameron Trading Co. Ltd.   [Oct-31  08:08PM  Company Spotlight]
▶ Jewett-Cameron Trading initiated with a Buy at Sidoti   [May-23  11:01AM  at theflyonthewall.com]
▶ Jewett-Cameron Announces 3rd Quarter Financial Results   [Jul-11  04:45PM  PR Newswire]

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