Intrinsic value of Jacobs Engineering Group - JEC

Previous Close

$69.95

  Intrinsic Value

$50.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-28%

Previous close

$69.95

 
Intrinsic value

$50.45

 
Up/down potential

-28%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of JEC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.58
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  10,023
  10,223
  10,459
  10,727
  11,029
  11,364
  11,730
  12,130
  12,562
  13,028
  13,528
  14,063
  14,634
  15,242
  15,887
  16,573
  17,299
  18,068
  18,881
  19,740
  20,647
  21,604
  22,613
  23,677
  24,798
  25,978
  27,221
  28,530
  29,906
  31,355
  32,878
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  9,941
  10,163
  10,417
  10,701
  11,016
  11,362
  11,739
  12,147
  12,586
  13,058
  13,261
  13,799
  14,372
  14,981
  15,628
  16,312
  17,037
  17,804
  18,614
  19,469
  20,372
  21,323
  22,327
  23,384
  24,497
  25,669
  26,903
  28,201
  29,567
  31,003
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  9,631
  9,941
  10,163
  10,417
  10,701
  11,016
  11,362
  11,739
  12,147
  12,586
  13,058
  13,261
  13,799
  14,372
  14,981
  15,628
  16,312
  17,037
  17,804
  18,614
  19,469
  20,372
  21,323
  22,327
  23,384
  24,497
  25,669
  26,903
  28,201
  29,567
  31,003
Operating income, $m
  392
  282
  295
  311
  328
  347
  368
  391
  415
  442
  471
  802
  835
  869
  906
  945
  987
  1,030
  1,077
  1,126
  1,178
  1,232
  1,290
  1,350
  1,414
  1,482
  1,552
  1,627
  1,706
  1,788
  1,875
EBITDA, $m
  514
  606
  620
  636
  654
  673
  695
  719
  744
  772
  802
  833
  867
  903
  942
  982
  1,025
  1,071
  1,119
  1,170
  1,224
  1,280
  1,340
  1,403
  1,470
  1,540
  1,613
  1,691
  1,772
  1,858
  1,949
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  10
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  60
  67
  74
  82
  91
  100
  109
  119
  130
  141
  153
  165
  178
  192
  207
  222
  238
  255
  273
Earnings before tax, $m
  393
  272
  283
  296
  310
  325
  342
  360
  380
  401
  424
  749
  775
  803
  832
  863
  896
  931
  968
  1,007
  1,048
  1,091
  1,137
  1,185
  1,236
  1,289
  1,346
  1,405
  1,467
  1,533
  1,602
Tax expense, $m
  106
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  202
  209
  217
  225
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  283
  295
  307
  320
  334
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
Net income, $m
  294
  199
  207
  216
  226
  237
  249
  263
  277
  293
  309
  547
  566
  586
  607
  630
  654
  680
  706
  735
  765
  797
  830
  865
  902
  941
  982
  1,026
  1,071
  1,119
  1,169

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  774
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,381
  6,739
  6,894
  7,071
  7,270
  7,491
  7,733
  7,996
  8,281
  8,588
  8,918
  9,270
  9,647
  10,047
  10,473
  10,925
  11,403
  11,910
  12,446
  13,012
  13,610
  14,241
  14,906
  15,608
  16,347
  17,125
  17,944
  18,807
  19,714
  20,669
  21,673
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,607
  6,739
  6,894
  7,071
  7,270
  7,491
  7,733
  7,996
  8,281
  8,588
  8,918
  9,270
  9,647
  10,047
  10,473
  10,925
  11,403
  11,910
  12,446
  13,012
  13,610
  14,241
  14,906
  15,608
  16,347
  17,125
  17,944
  18,807
  19,714
  20,669
  21,673
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
Average production assets, $m
  670
  685
  701
  719
  739
  761
  786
  813
  842
  873
  906
  942
  980
  1,021
  1,064
  1,110
  1,159
  1,211
  1,265
  1,323
  1,383
  1,447
  1,515
  1,586
  1,661
  1,741
  1,824
  1,911
  2,004
  2,101
  2,203
Working capital, $m
  1,070
  307
  314
  322
  331
  341
  352
  364
  377
  391
  406
  422
  439
  457
  477
  497
  519
  542
  566
  592
  619
  648
  678
  710
  744
  779
  817
  856
  897
  941
  986
Total debt, $m
  238
  291
  360
  439
  528
  626
  734
  851
  978
  1,115
  1,262
  1,420
  1,587
  1,766
  1,956
  2,157
  2,371
  2,597
  2,836
  3,089
  3,355
  3,637
  3,933
  4,246
  4,576
  4,923
  5,288
  5,673
  6,078
  6,503
  6,951
Total liabilities, $m
  2,953
  3,006
  3,075
  3,154
  3,243
  3,341
  3,449
  3,566
  3,693
  3,830
  3,977
  4,135
  4,302
  4,481
  4,671
  4,872
  5,086
  5,312
  5,551
  5,804
  6,070
  6,352
  6,648
  6,961
  7,291
  7,638
  8,003
  8,388
  8,793
  9,218
  9,666
Total equity, $m
  4,428
  3,734
  3,819
  3,918
  4,028
  4,150
  4,284
  4,430
  4,588
  4,758
  4,940
  5,136
  5,344
  5,566
  5,802
  6,052
  6,318
  6,598
  6,895
  7,209
  7,540
  7,890
  8,258
  8,647
  9,056
  9,487
  9,941
  10,419
  10,922
  11,451
  12,007
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,381
  6,740
  6,894
  7,072
  7,271
  7,491
  7,733
  7,996
  8,281
  8,588
  8,917
  9,271
  9,646
  10,047
  10,473
  10,924
  11,404
  11,910
  12,446
  13,013
  13,610
  14,242
  14,906
  15,608
  16,347
  17,125
  17,944
  18,807
  19,715
  20,669
  21,673
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.054
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.170
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.260
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.553
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  294
  199
  207
  216
  226
  237
  249
  263
  277
  293
  309
  547
  566
  586
  607
  630
  654
  680
  706
  735
  765
  797
  830
  865
  902
  941
  982
  1,026
  1,071
  1,119
  1,169
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  122
  324
  324
  325
  326
  326
  327
  328
  329
  330
  331
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
Funds from operations, $m
  708
  523
  531
  541
  552
  564
  577
  591
  606
  623
  641
  578
  598
  620
  643
  667
  693
  720
  749
  779
  811
  845
  880
  918
  958
  999
  1,043
  1,089
  1,138
  1,189
  1,243
Change in working capital, $m
  133
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
Cash from operations, $m
  575
  517
  524
  533
  543
  554
  566
  579
  593
  609
  626
  562
  581
  602
  623
  646
  671
  697
  724
  753
  784
  816
  850
  886
  924
  964
  1,006
  1,050
  1,097
  1,146
  1,197
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
New CAPEX, $m
  -118
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -236
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
Free cash flow, $m
  339
  479
  485
  491
  498
  506
  516
  526
  537
  550
  563
  496
  512
  528
  546
  565
  585
  607
  629
  653
  679
  706
  734
  764
  796
  829
  865
  902
  941
  982
  1,025
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -152
  56
  69
  79
  89
  98
  108
  117
  127
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  190
  201
  214
  226
  239
  253
  267
  281
  297
  313
  330
  347
  365
  385
  405
  426
  448
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -35
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -189
  56
  69
  79
  89
  98
  108
  117
  127
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  190
  201
  214
  226
  239
  253
  267
  281
  297
  313
  330
  347
  365
  385
  405
  426
  448
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  172
  535
  555
  570
  587
  605
  624
  643
  664
  686
  710
  653
  679
  707
  736
  767
  799
  833
  868
  906
  946
  987
  1,031
  1,077
  1,126
  1,176
  1,230
  1,286
  1,345
  1,408
  1,473
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -163
  -77
  -86
  -98
  -110
  -122
  -134
  -146
  -158
  -170
  -183
  -195
  -208
  -222
  -236
  -250
  -265
  -281
  -297
  -314
  -331
  -350
  -369
  -389
  -409
  -431
  -454
  -478
  -503
  -529
  -556
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  771
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,229
  469
  472
  477
  483
  490
  497
  506
  516
  527
  458
  471
  485
  500
  516
  534
  552
  572
  592
  614
  638
  662
  689
  716
  745
  776
  809
  843
  879
  917
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,179
  429
  411
  393
  374
  355
  336
  317
  297
  276
  218
  201
  184
  168
  152
  136
  120
  105
  91
  78
  66
  55
  45
  36
  29
  23
  17
  13
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. is a technical professional services company. The Company provides a range of technical, professional and construction services to industrial, commercial and governmental clients. The Company's services include Project Services; Process, Scientific, and Systems Consulting Services; Construction Services, and Operations and Maintenance Services. It operates four lines of business (LOBs): Petroleum and Chemicals; Buildings and Infrastructure; Aerospace and Technology, and Industrial. It caters its services to various sectors, such as oil and gas exploration, production and refining; chemicals and polymers; programs for various national governments, including aerospace, defense, and environmental programs; buildings; infrastructure and telecommunications; mining and minerals; pharmaceuticals and biotechnology; power; pulp and paper; technology and manufacturing, and food and consumer products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.6
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 51.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 258
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 5.3%
Total Debt to Equity 5.4%
Interest Coverage 31
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity 6.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
EBITDA Margin 5.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Effective Tax Rate 27%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Payout Ratio 18.4%

JEC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JEC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $10023 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Jacobs Engineering Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Jacobs Engineering Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JEC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for JEC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Jacobs Engineering Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Jacobs Engineering Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JEC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JEC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Jacobs Engineering Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Jacobs Engineering Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JEC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JEC are equal to 6.7%.

Life of production assets of 30.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Jacobs Engineering Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JEC is equal to 3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4428 million for Jacobs Engineering Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 121.589 million for Jacobs Engineering Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Jacobs Engineering Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Jacobs Declares Quarterly Dividend   [10:49AM  Business Wire]
▶ Investing Is Not Rocket Science   [Dec-30-17 02:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Colorado's largest private company now owned by Texas firm   [Dec-18-17 07:19PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Jacobs Engineering Group: S&P 500s Top Gainer on November 21   [Nov-22-17 09:45AM  Market Realist]
▶ The Hot Stock: Jacobs Engineering Engineers a 9% Gain!   [Nov-21-17 05:07PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Jacobs Engineering tops Street 4Q forecasts   [06:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ Jacobs Is Engineering a Rally   [Nov-07-17 02:45PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Jacobs Engineering Getting Closer To Key Technical Benchmark   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Jacobs Announces Sale of Its Interest in Neste Jacobs Oy   [Sep-29-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Jacobs Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-27-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of JEC
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