Intrinsic value of James Hardie Industries ADR - JHX

Previous Close

$11.14

  Intrinsic Value

$491.65

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$11.14

 
Intrinsic value

$491.65

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of JHX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  2,196
  2,344
  2,497
  2,656
  2,822
  2,995
  3,175
  3,363
  3,558
  3,762
  3,975
  4,198
  4,430
  4,673
  4,927
  5,193
  5,471
  5,762
  6,066
  6,385
  6,719
  7,069
  7,436
  7,820
  8,223
  8,645
  9,088
  9,552
  10,039
  10,550
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,748
  1,866
  1,988
  2,114
  2,247
  2,384
  2,527
  2,677
  2,832
  2,995
  3,164
  3,341
  3,527
  3,720
  3,922
  4,133
  4,355
  4,586
  4,829
  5,082
  5,348
  5,627
  5,919
  6,225
  6,545
  6,881
  7,234
  7,604
  7,991
  8,398
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,748
  1,866
  1,988
  2,114
  2,247
  2,384
  2,527
  2,677
  2,832
  2,995
  3,164
  3,341
  3,527
  3,720
  3,922
  4,133
  4,355
  4,586
  4,829
  5,082
  5,348
  5,627
  5,919
  6,225
  6,545
  6,881
  7,234
  7,604
  7,991
  8,398
Operating income, $m
  448
  478
  509
  542
  576
  611
  648
  686
  726
  768
  811
  856
  904
  953
  1,005
  1,059
  1,116
  1,175
  1,237
  1,303
  1,371
  1,442
  1,517
  1,595
  1,677
  1,764
  1,854
  1,949
  2,048
  2,152
EBITDA, $m
  546
  583
  621
  660
  702
  745
  789
  836
  885
  935
  988
  1,044
  1,101
  1,162
  1,225
  1,291
  1,360
  1,432
  1,508
  1,587
  1,670
  1,757
  1,849
  1,944
  2,044
  2,149
  2,259
  2,375
  2,496
  2,623
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  48
  31
  39
  48
  57
  66
  75
  85
  96
  107
  118
  130
  142
  155
  169
  183
  198
  213
  229
  246
  264
  282
  302
  322
  344
  366
  390
  414
  440
  467
Earnings before tax, $m
  400
  447
  470
  494
  519
  545
  572
  601
  630
  661
  693
  726
  762
  798
  836
  877
  918
  962
  1,008
  1,056
  1,107
  1,160
  1,215
  1,273
  1,334
  1,398
  1,464
  1,534
  1,608
  1,685
Tax expense, $m
  108
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  206
  215
  226
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  313
  328
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455
Net income, $m
  292
  326
  343
  361
  379
  398
  418
  438
  460
  482
  506
  530
  556
  583
  611
  640
  670
  702
  736
  771
  808
  847
  887
  929
  974
  1,020
  1,069
  1,120
  1,174
  1,230

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,513
  2,681
  2,857
  3,039
  3,229
  3,427
  3,633
  3,847
  4,071
  4,305
  4,548
  4,803
  5,069
  5,347
  5,637
  5,941
  6,259
  6,592
  6,941
  7,305
  7,688
  8,088
  8,508
  8,947
  9,408
  9,891
  10,398
  10,929
  11,487
  12,071
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,513
  2,681
  2,857
  3,039
  3,229
  3,427
  3,633
  3,847
  4,071
  4,305
  4,548
  4,803
  5,069
  5,347
  5,637
  5,941
  6,259
  6,592
  6,941
  7,305
  7,688
  8,088
  8,508
  8,947
  9,408
  9,891
  10,398
  10,929
  11,487
  12,071
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
  0.874
Average production assets, $m
  999
  1,066
  1,136
  1,209
  1,284
  1,363
  1,445
  1,530
  1,619
  1,712
  1,809
  1,910
  2,016
  2,126
  2,242
  2,363
  2,489
  2,622
  2,760
  2,905
  3,057
  3,216
  3,383
  3,558
  3,741
  3,933
  4,135
  4,346
  4,568
  4,800
Working capital, $m
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  332
  349
  368
  386
  406
  427
  449
  472
  496
Total debt, $m
  573
  725
  883
  1,047
  1,218
  1,396
  1,581
  1,775
  1,976
  2,186
  2,406
  2,635
  2,874
  3,124
  3,386
  3,659
  3,945
  4,245
  4,558
  4,887
  5,231
  5,591
  5,969
  6,364
  6,779
  7,214
  7,670
  8,148
  8,650
  9,176
Total liabilities, $m
  2,262
  2,413
  2,571
  2,735
  2,906
  3,084
  3,269
  3,463
  3,664
  3,874
  4,094
  4,323
  4,562
  4,812
  5,074
  5,347
  5,633
  5,933
  6,247
  6,575
  6,919
  7,279
  7,657
  8,052
  8,467
  8,902
  9,358
  9,837
  10,338
  10,864
Total equity, $m
  251
  268
  286
  304
  323
  343
  363
  385
  407
  430
  455
  480
  507
  535
  564
  594
  626
  659
  694
  731
  769
  809
  851
  895
  941
  989
  1,040
  1,093
  1,149
  1,207
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,513
  2,681
  2,857
  3,039
  3,229
  3,427
  3,632
  3,848
  4,071
  4,304
  4,549
  4,803
  5,069
  5,347
  5,638
  5,941
  6,259
  6,592
  6,941
  7,306
  7,688
  8,088
  8,508
  8,947
  9,408
  9,891
  10,398
  10,930
  11,487
  12,071
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.280
  2.700
  3.090
  3.450
  3.770
  4.070
  4.350
  4.610
  4.850
  5.080
  5.290
  5.490
  5.670
  5.840
  6.010
  6.160
  6.300
  6.440
  6.570
  6.690
  6.800
  6.910
  7.020
  7.110
  7.210
  7.290
  7.380
  7.460
  7.530
  7.600
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  292
  326
  343
  361
  379
  398
  418
  438
  460
  482
  506
  530
  556
  583
  611
  640
  670
  702
  736
  771
  808
  847
  887
  929
  974
  1,020
  1,069
  1,120
  1,174
  1,230
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  98
  105
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  198
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  315
  332
  349
  367
  386
  405
  426
  448
  471
Funds from operations, $m
  390
  431
  455
  479
  505
  532
  559
  588
  619
  650
  683
  718
  754
  791
  830
  871
  914
  960
  1,007
  1,056
  1,108
  1,162
  1,219
  1,278
  1,340
  1,406
  1,474
  1,546
  1,622
  1,701
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  384
  424
  447
  472
  497
  523
  551
  580
  609
  641
  673
  707
  743
  780
  818
  859
  901
  946
  992
  1,041
  1,092
  1,145
  1,201
  1,260
  1,322
  1,386
  1,454
  1,524
  1,599
  1,677
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -198
  -208
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -257
  -271
  -285
  -300
  -315
  -332
  -349
  -367
  -386
  -405
  -426
  -448
New CAPEX, $m
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -211
  -222
  -232
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -293
  -309
  -324
  -341
  -358
  -376
  -396
  -416
  -437
  -459
  -482
  -507
  -532
  -559
  -588
  -616
  -648
  -680
Free cash flow, $m
  228
  259
  273
  288
  303
  319
  335
  353
  370
  389
  408
  429
  450
  472
  494
  518
  543
  569
  597
  625
  655
  686
  719
  753
  789
  827
  866
  908
  951
  996
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -311
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  286
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
  502
  526
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  181
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -130
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  286
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
  502
  526
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  98
  411
  431
  452
  474
  497
  521
  546
  572
  599
  628
  658
  689
  722
  756
  792
  830
  869
  910
  954
  999
  1,047
  1,097
  1,149
  1,204
  1,262
  1,322
  1,386
  1,453
  1,523
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -473
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -375
  394
  413
  434
  455
  477
  500
  524
  550
  576
  603
  632
  662
  694
  727
  761
  798
  836
  875
  917
  961
  1,007
  1,055
  1,105
  1,158
  1,214
  1,272
  1,333
  1,397
  1,464
Discount rate, %
  7.30
  7.67
  8.05
  8.45
  8.87
  9.32
  9.78
  10.27
  10.79
  11.32
  11.89
  12.49
  13.11
  13.77
  14.45
  15.18
  15.93
  16.73
  17.57
  18.45
  19.37
  20.34
  21.35
  22.42
  23.54
  24.72
  25.96
  27.25
  28.62
  30.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -350
  340
  328
  314
  297
  280
  260
  240
  219
  197
  175
  154
  134
  114
  96
  79
  65
  52
  40
  31
  23
  17
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

James Hardie Industries Plc is a manufacturer of fiber cement products and systems for internal and external building construction applications in the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines. The Company's operating segments are North America and Europe Fiber Cement, and Asia Pacific Fiber Cement. The North America and Europe Fiber Cement manufactures fiber cement interior linings, exterior siding products and related accessories in the United States. The Asia Pacific Fiber Cement includes fiber cement manufactured in Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines, and sold in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, the Middle East (Israel, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates) and various Pacific Islands. The Company offers a range of fiber-cement building materials for both internal and external use across a range of applications, including external siding, internal walls, floors, ceilings, trim, fencing and facades.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  James Hardie Industries ADR (JHX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.7
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book -23.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 44.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity -266.5%
Total Debt to Equity -291%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Return On Total Capital 75.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 402%
Return On Equity -126.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -128.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.7%
EBITDA Margin 24.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.6%
Operating Margin 20.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Net Profit Margin 14.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Effective Tax Rate 24.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.2%
Payout Ratio 63.9%

JHX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JHX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2054.5 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by James Hardie Industries ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of James Hardie Industries ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JHX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.3%, whose default value for JHX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of James Hardie Industries ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of James Hardie Industries ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JHX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JHX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for James Hardie Industries ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for James Hardie Industries ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JHX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JHX are equal to 45.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in James Hardie Industries ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JHX is equal to 4.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-221.5 million for James Hardie Industries ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 3.195 million for James Hardie Industries ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of James Hardie Industries ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ James Hardie: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ James Hardie: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-10-18 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Galaxy Resources And Other Great Growth Stocks   [May-24-18 08:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Best Growth Stocks To Buy   [Feb-19-18 07:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ James Hardie posts 3Q profit   [Feb-02-18 05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ James Hardie posts 2Q profit   [Nov-09-17 01:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ James Hardie posts 1Q profit   [Aug-08-17 10:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ James Hardie posts 3Q profit   [Feb-03-17 05:00AM  Associated Press]
▶ Barclays Rated Mohawk Industries as Overweight   [Jan-10-17 09:07AM  Market Realist]
▶ James Hardie buys back shares worth $US35m   [Sep-05-16 04:34AM  Other]
▶ James Hardie posts 1Q profit   [Aug-12-16 06:25AM  AP]
▶ James Hardie expects strong FY17   [Aug-11-16 01:42AM  AAP]

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