Intrinsic value of J&J Snack Foods - JJSF

Previous Close

$149.09

  Intrinsic Value

$61.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

Previous close

$149.09

 
Intrinsic value

$61.55

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of JJSF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.74
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  993
  1,054
  1,117
  1,182
  1,251
  1,323
  1,397
  1,475
  1,557
  1,642
  1,731
  1,824
  1,922
  2,024
  2,131
  2,243
  2,360
  2,483
  2,612
  2,746
  2,888
  3,036
  3,192
  3,355
  3,526
  3,705
  3,893
  4,091
  4,298
  4,515
  4,743
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  929
  984
  1,041
  1,101
  1,164
  1,229
  1,297
  1,368
  1,443
  1,521
  1,593
  1,679
  1,768
  1,861
  1,959
  2,061
  2,168
  2,281
  2,399
  2,522
  2,652
  2,787
  2,930
  3,079
  3,236
  3,400
  3,572
  3,753
  3,943
  4,142
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
Total operating expenses, $m
  880
  933
  988
  1,045
  1,105
  1,169
  1,234
  1,302
  1,373
  1,448
  1,526
  1,598
  1,684
  1,774
  1,867
  1,965
  2,067
  2,174
  2,287
  2,405
  2,529
  2,659
  2,794
  2,937
  3,086
  3,243
  3,408
  3,580
  3,761
  3,951
  4,150
Operating income, $m
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  164
  174
  184
  194
  206
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
  293
  308
  325
  341
  359
  378
  397
  418
  439
  462
  486
  510
  536
  564
  592
EBITDA, $m
  148
  156
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  335
  353
  372
  391
  411
  433
  455
  479
  503
  529
  556
  585
  614
  646
  679
  713
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Earnings before tax, $m
  117
  121
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  171
  181
  191
  202
  222
  234
  246
  259
  272
  286
  301
  316
  333
  350
  368
  386
  406
  427
  448
  471
  495
  520
  546
  573
Tax expense, $m
  41
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  127
  134
  140
  147
  155
Net income, $m
  76
  88
  94
  99
  105
  112
  118
  125
  132
  140
  147
  162
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
  282
  296
  311
  327
  344
  361
  379
  399
  419

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  154
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  790
  675
  715
  758
  801
  847
  895
  945
  997
  1,052
  1,109
  1,169
  1,231
  1,297
  1,365
  1,437
  1,512
  1,591
  1,673
  1,759
  1,850
  1,945
  2,045
  2,149
  2,259
  2,373
  2,494
  2,621
  2,753
  2,892
  3,039
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  636
  675
  715
  758
  801
  847
  895
  945
  997
  1,052
  1,109
  1,169
  1,231
  1,297
  1,365
  1,437
  1,512
  1,591
  1,673
  1,759
  1,850
  1,945
  2,045
  2,149
  2,259
  2,373
  2,494
  2,621
  2,753
  2,892
  3,039
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.561
  1.561
  1.562
  1.559
  1.562
  1.562
  1.561
  1.561
  1.562
  1.561
  1.561
  1.560
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
Average production assets, $m
  222
  236
  250
  265
  280
  296
  313
  330
  349
  368
  388
  409
  431
  453
  477
  502
  529
  556
  585
  615
  647
  680
  715
  751
  790
  830
  872
  916
  963
  1,011
  1,062
Working capital, $m
  253
  105
  112
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  275
  289
  304
  319
  335
  353
  371
  389
  409
  430
  452
  474
Total debt, $m
  2
  11
  21
  31
  42
  53
  64
  76
  88
  101
  115
  129
  144
  160
  176
  193
  211
  230
  250
  271
  292
  315
  339
  364
  390
  417
  446
  476
  508
  541
  576
Total liabilities, $m
  153
  161
  171
  181
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  380
  400
  421
  442
  465
  489
  514
  540
  567
  596
  626
  658
  691
  726
Total equity, $m
  638
  514
  544
  576
  610
  645
  681
  719
  759
  801
  844
  889
  937
  987
  1,039
  1,093
  1,151
  1,210
  1,273
  1,339
  1,408
  1,480
  1,556
  1,635
  1,719
  1,806
  1,898
  1,994
  2,095
  2,201
  2,312
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  791
  675
  715
  757
  802
  848
  895
  945
  997
  1,052
  1,109
  1,168
  1,231
  1,297
  1,365
  1,436
  1,512
  1,590
  1,673
  1,760
  1,850
  1,945
  2,045
  2,149
  2,259
  2,373
  2,494
  2,620
  2,753
  2,892
  3,038
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.003
  0.020
  0.040
  0.050
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  76
  88
  94
  99
  105
  112
  118
  125
  132
  140
  147
  162
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
  282
  296
  311
  327
  344
  361
  379
  399
  419
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
Funds from operations, $m
  115
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  208
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  313
  329
  346
  363
  382
  401
  422
  443
  465
  489
  513
  539
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Cash from operations, $m
  121
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  182
  191
  199
  210
  221
  232
  245
  257
  271
  285
  299
  315
  331
  348
  365
  384
  404
  424
  446
  468
  492
  517
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
New CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -75
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
Free cash flow, $m
  46
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213
  224
  236
  248
  260
  274
  288
  302
  318
  334
  351
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  36
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  148
  156
  165
  173
  182
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
  247
  259
  273
  287
  301
  316
  332
  349
  367
  385
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  154
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  212
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  100
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
  214
  225
  236
  248
  261
  274
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  203
  57
  58
  58
  58
  58
  57
  56
  54
  52
  49
  46
  44
  41
  38
  34
  31
  28
  24
  21
  18
  15
  13
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

J & J Snack Foods Corp. is a manufacturer, marketer and distributor of a range of snack foods and beverages for the food service and retail supermarket industries. The Company operates in three business segments: Food Service, Retail Supermarkets and Frozen Beverages. Its portfolio of products includes soft pretzels, frozen beverages, frozen juice treats and desserts, stuffed sandwiches, burritos, churros, fruit pies, funnel cakes, cookies and bakery goods, and other snack foods and drinks. Its principal snack food products are soft pretzels marketed primarily under brand names SUPERPRETZEL and BAVARIAN BAKERY; frozen juice treats and desserts marketed primarily under LUIGI'S, WHOLE FRUIT, ICEE, PHILLY SWIRL and MINUTE MAID brand names; churros marketed primarily under the TIO PEPE'S, CALIFORNIA CHURROS and OREO brand names, and bakery products sold primarily under the READI-BAKE, COUNTRY HOME, MARY B'S and DADDY RAY'S brand names, as well as for private label and contract packing.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  J&J Snack Foods (JJSF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 36.6
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 4.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23
Price to Free Cash Flow 38.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.3%
Total Debt to Equity 0.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Return On Total Capital 12.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Return On Equity 12.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.9%
EBITDA Margin 15.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Operating Margin 11.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Net Profit Margin 7.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Effective Tax Rate 35%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.9%
Payout Ratio 38.2%

JJSF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JJSF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $993 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by J&J Snack Foods. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of J&J Snack Foods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JJSF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for JJSF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of J&J Snack Foods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of J&J Snack Foods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JJSF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $4 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JJSF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for J&J Snack Foods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for J&J Snack Foods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JJSF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JJSF are equal to 22.4%.

Life of production assets of 8.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in J&J Snack Foods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JJSF is equal to 10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $638 million for J&J Snack Foods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.771 million for J&J Snack Foods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of J&J Snack Foods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Walt Disney Co Leads 5 Dividend Stocks Boosting Payouts   [Dec-04-17 10:42AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ J&J Snack Foods posts 4Q profit   [Nov-09-17 04:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ J & J Snack Foods Schedules Fourth Quarter Conference Call   [Oct-27-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ J&J Snack Foods posts 3Q profit   [Jul-24-17 09:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ J & J Snack Foods Schedules Third Quarter Conference Call   [Jul-13-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ J & J Snack Foods Corp. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jun-07-17 09:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to J&J Snack Foods Corp. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 04:14PM  Capital Cube]
▶ J&J Snack Foods misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Apr-24-17 04:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ J & J Snack Foods Schedules Second Quarter Conference Call   [Apr-12-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ J&J Snack Foods Introduces Pillsbury® Churro Bites   [Apr-11-17 09:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ This Sparkling Food Retailer Looks Bright   [Feb-19-17 10:10PM  GuruFocus.com]
Financial statements of JJSF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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