Intrinsic value of Jamba - JMBA

Previous Close

$13.01

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$13.01

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of JMBA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.10
  17.69
  16.42
  15.28
  14.25
  13.33
  12.49
  11.74
  11.07
  10.46
  9.92
  9.42
  8.98
  8.58
  8.23
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.12
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
Revenue, $m
  84
  99
  116
  133
  152
  173
  194
  217
  241
  266
  293
  320
  349
  379
  410
  443
  477
  512
  548
  586
  625
  666
  709
  753
  799
  847
  897
  949
  1,004
  1,061
Variable operating expenses, $m
  108
  127
  148
  171
  195
  221
  249
  278
  309
  341
  374
  410
  447
  485
  525
  566
  609
  654
  701
  749
  799
  852
  906
  963
  1,022
  1,083
  1,147
  1,214
  1,284
  1,356
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  108
  127
  148
  171
  195
  221
  249
  278
  309
  341
  374
  410
  447
  485
  525
  566
  609
  654
  701
  749
  799
  852
  906
  963
  1,022
  1,083
  1,147
  1,214
  1,284
  1,356
Operating income, $m
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -61
  -67
  -74
  -82
  -89
  -97
  -106
  -114
  -123
  -133
  -143
  -153
  -163
  -174
  -186
  -197
  -210
  -223
  -236
  -250
  -265
  -280
  -296
EBITDA, $m
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -58
  -65
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -99
  -107
  -115
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -161
  -172
  -182
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -257
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  -24
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -43
  -50
  -56
  -63
  -71
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -122
  -132
  -142
  -153
  -164
  -175
  -188
  -200
  -213
  -227
  -241
  -255
  -271
  -286
  -303
  -320
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -24
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -43
  -50
  -56
  -63
  -71
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -122
  -132
  -142
  -153
  -164
  -175
  -188
  -200
  -213
  -227
  -241
  -255
  -271
  -286
  -303
  -320

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  48
  57
  66
  76
  87
  99
  111
  124
  138
  153
  168
  183
  200
  217
  235
  253
  273
  293
  314
  335
  358
  381
  406
  431
  457
  485
  514
  543
  575
  607
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  48
  57
  66
  76
  87
  99
  111
  124
  138
  153
  168
  183
  200
  217
  235
  253
  273
  293
  314
  335
  358
  381
  406
  431
  457
  485
  514
  543
  575
  607
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.750
  1.737
  1.758
  1.750
  1.747
  1.747
  1.748
  1.750
  1.746
  1.739
  1.744
  1.749
  1.745
  1.747
  1.745
  1.751
  1.747
  1.747
  1.745
  1.749
  1.746
  1.748
  1.746
  1.747
  1.748
  1.746
  1.745
  1.748
  1.746
  1.748
Average production assets, $m
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  40
  44
  48
  53
  58
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  193
Working capital, $m
  -38
  -45
  -52
  -60
  -69
  -78
  -88
  -98
  -109
  -120
  -132
  -145
  -158
  -171
  -185
  -200
  -215
  -231
  -247
  -264
  -282
  -300
  -320
  -340
  -360
  -382
  -405
  -428
  -453
  -478
Total debt, $m
  -12
  -4
  4
  14
  23
  34
  45
  57
  69
  82
  96
  110
  125
  140
  156
  173
  190
  208
  227
  247
  267
  288
  310
  333
  356
  381
  407
  434
  462
  491
Total liabilities, $m
  44
  51
  60
  69
  79
  89
  100
  112
  124
  137
  151
  165
  180
  195
  211
  228
  246
  264
  282
  302
  322
  343
  365
  388
  412
  436
  462
  489
  517
  546
Total equity, $m
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  49
  57
  67
  77
  88
  99
  111
  124
  138
  152
  168
  183
  200
  217
  234
  253
  273
  293
  313
  336
  358
  381
  406
  431
  458
  484
  513
  543
  574
  607
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -2.420
  -0.700
  0.660
  1.770
  2.670
  3.420
  4.040
  4.560
  5.000
  5.380
  5.710
  5.990
  6.240
  6.460
  6.650
  6.820
  6.980
  7.110
  7.240
  7.350
  7.460
  7.550
  7.640
  7.720
  7.790
  7.860
  7.920
  7.980
  8.040
  8.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -24
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -43
  -50
  -56
  -63
  -71
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -122
  -132
  -142
  -153
  -164
  -175
  -188
  -200
  -213
  -227
  -241
  -255
  -271
  -286
  -303
  -320
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
Funds from operations, $m
  -20
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -154
  -165
  -176
  -187
  -199
  -212
  -224
  -238
  -252
  -267
  -282
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from operations, $m
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -118
  -128
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -168
  -179
  -191
  -203
  -215
  -228
  -242
  -256
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
Free cash flow, $m
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -122
  -132
  -142
  -153
  -164
  -175
  -188
  -200
  -213
  -227
  -241
  -255
  -271
  -286
  -303
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  43
  28
  33
  39
  45
  51
  57
  64
  72
  80
  88
  96
  105
  114
  124
  134
  144
  155
  166
  178
  190
  202
  215
  229
  243
  258
  273
  289
  306
  324
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  31
  36
  41
  48
  55
  61
  68
  76
  84
  93
  102
  110
  120
  129
  140
  151
  161
  173
  185
  197
  210
  223
  237
  252
  267
  283
  299
  316
  334
  353
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -43
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -64
  -72
  -80
  -88
  -96
  -105
  -114
  -124
  -134
  -144
  -155
  -166
  -178
  -190
  -202
  -215
  -229
  -243
  -258
  -273
  -289
  -306
  -324
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -31
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -57
  -64
  -72
  -80
  -88
  -96
  -105
  -114
  -124
  -134
  -144
  -155
  -166
  -178
  -190
  -203
  -216
  -229
  -244
  -258
  -274
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -30
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -30
  -29
  -28
  -27
  -25
  -23
  -21
  -18
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  7.3
  1.1
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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  0.0

Jamba, Inc. is a restaurant retailer of specialty food and beverage offerings. The Company operates through retail segment. The Company's offerings include whole fruit smoothies, squeezed juices and juice blends, Energy Bowls, and a range of food items including, hot oatmeal, breakfast wraps, sandwiches, Artisan Flatbreads, baked goods and snacks. The Company, through its subsidiary, Jamba Juice Company, operates a lifestyle brand. The Company has a global business driven by a portfolio of franchised and company-owned Jamba Juice stores, and licensed JambaGO and Jamba Juice Express formats. The Company has approximately 890 Jamba Juice stores globally, consisting of over 70 company-owned and operated stores, all located in the United States (Company Stores), approximately 740 franchisee-owned and operated stores (Franchise Stores) in the United States, and over 70 Franchise Stores in international locations (International Stores), collectively the (Jamba System).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Jamba (JMBA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.1
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 41.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -25.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 81.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Return On Equity 81.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 79%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77.5%
EBITDA Margin 10.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Effective Tax Rate 10%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

JMBA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JMBA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $70.926 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Jamba. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Jamba. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JMBA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for JMBA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Jamba, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Jamba.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JMBA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 128.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JMBA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Jamba.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Jamba. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JMBA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JMBA are equal to 18.2%.

Life of production assets of 4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Jamba operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JMBA is equal to -45.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-14.574 million for Jamba - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.641 million for Jamba is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Jamba at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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