Intrinsic value of JMP Group - JMP

Previous Close

$5.60

  Intrinsic Value

$1.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

  Value-price divergence*

-77%

Previous close

$5.60

 
Intrinsic value

$1.39

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-77%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as JMP.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of JMP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.74
  2.60
  2.84
  3.06
  3.25
  3.43
  3.58
  3.72
  3.85
  3.97
  4.07
  4.16
  4.25
  4.32
  4.39
  4.45
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
Revenue, $m
  169
  173
  178
  184
  190
  196
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  280
  293
  306
  320
  334
  350
  366
  384
  402
  421
  441
  462
  485
  508
  533
  559
  586
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  166
  171
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  210
  218
  227
  237
  247
  257
  269
  281
  293
  307
  321
  336
  351
  368
  385
  404
  423
  443
  465
  487
  511
  536
  562
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  167
  166
  171
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  210
  218
  227
  237
  247
  257
  269
  281
  293
  307
  321
  336
  351
  368
  385
  404
  423
  443
  465
  487
  511
  536
  562
Operating income, $m
  3
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
EBITDA, $m
  4
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Interest expense (income), $m
  31
  31
  16
  25
  36
  47
  59
  72
  86
  102
  118
  135
  154
  173
  194
  216
  240
  264
  290
  318
  347
  378
  410
  444
  480
  517
  557
  599
  643
  689
  738
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  -24
  -9
  -18
  -28
  -39
  -51
  -64
  -77
  -92
  -108
  -125
  -143
  -162
  -183
  -204
  -227
  -251
  -277
  -303
  -332
  -362
  -393
  -427
  -462
  -498
  -537
  -578
  -621
  -666
  -714
Tax expense, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  3
  -24
  -9
  -18
  -28
  -39
  -51
  -64
  -77
  -92
  -108
  -125
  -143
  -162
  -183
  -204
  -227
  -251
  -277
  -303
  -332
  -362
  -393
  -427
  -462
  -498
  -537
  -578
  -621
  -666
  -714

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  85
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,126
  1,070
  1,101
  1,134
  1,171
  1,211
  1,255
  1,301
  1,352
  1,405
  1,462
  1,523
  1,588
  1,657
  1,729
  1,806
  1,888
  1,974
  2,065
  2,160
  2,261
  2,368
  2,480
  2,598
  2,722
  2,853
  2,991
  3,136
  3,289
  3,449
  3,617
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,041
  1,070
  1,101
  1,134
  1,171
  1,211
  1,255
  1,301
  1,352
  1,405
  1,462
  1,523
  1,588
  1,657
  1,729
  1,806
  1,888
  1,974
  2,065
  2,160
  2,261
  2,368
  2,480
  2,598
  2,722
  2,853
  2,991
  3,136
  3,289
  3,449
  3,617
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
Average production assets, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Working capital, $m
  0
  -87
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -295
Total debt, $m
  92
  48
  76
  106
  139
  175
  214
  256
  301
  350
  401
  456
  514
  576
  641
  711
  784
  861
  943
  1,029
  1,120
  1,216
  1,317
  1,423
  1,535
  1,653
  1,777
  1,907
  2,045
  2,189
  2,341
Total liabilities, $m
  1,006
  963
  991
  1,021
  1,054
  1,090
  1,129
  1,171
  1,216
  1,265
  1,316
  1,371
  1,429
  1,491
  1,556
  1,626
  1,699
  1,776
  1,858
  1,944
  2,035
  2,131
  2,232
  2,338
  2,450
  2,568
  2,692
  2,822
  2,960
  3,104
  3,256
Total equity, $m
  119
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  314
  329
  345
  362
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,125
  1,070
  1,101
  1,134
  1,171
  1,211
  1,254
  1,301
  1,351
  1,406
  1,462
  1,523
  1,588
  1,657
  1,729
  1,807
  1,888
  1,973
  2,064
  2,160
  2,261
  2,368
  2,480
  2,598
  2,722
  2,853
  2,991
  3,136
  3,289
  3,449
  3,618
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.773
  0.450
  0.690
  0.930
  1.190
  1.450
  1.710
  1.970
  2.230
  2.490
  2.740
  2.990
  3.240
  3.480
  3.710
  3.930
  4.150
  4.360
  4.570
  4.760
  4.950
  5.140
  5.310
  5.480
  5.640
  5.790
  5.940
  6.080
  6.220
  6.350
  6.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.033
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  -24
  -9
  -18
  -28
  -39
  -51
  -64
  -77
  -92
  -108
  -125
  -143
  -162
  -183
  -204
  -227
  -251
  -277
  -303
  -332
  -362
  -393
  -427
  -462
  -498
  -537
  -578
  -621
  -666
  -714
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Funds from operations, $m
  22
  -23
  -8
  -17
  -27
  -38
  -50
  -63
  -76
  -91
  -107
  -124
  -142
  -161
  -181
  -203
  -226
  -250
  -275
  -302
  -330
  -360
  -392
  -425
  -460
  -496
  -535
  -576
  -619
  -664
  -711
Change in working capital, $m
  13
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  9
  -21
  -6
  -14
  -24
  -35
  -46
  -59
  -72
  -87
  -102
  -119
  -137
  -156
  -176
  -197
  -219
  -243
  -268
  -294
  -322
  -351
  -382
  -415
  -450
  -486
  -524
  -564
  -606
  -651
  -697
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  145
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
Free cash flow, $m
  154
  -22
  -7
  -15
  -25
  -36
  -47
  -60
  -73
  -88
  -104
  -120
  -138
  -157
  -177
  -198
  -221
  -244
  -269
  -296
  -324
  -353
  -384
  -417
  -452
  -488
  -526
  -567
  -609
  -654
  -700
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -44
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -6
  97
  12
  21
  32
  43
  55
  68
  82
  98
  114
  131
  150
  169
  190
  212
  235
  260
  286
  313
  342
  372
  405
  438
  474
  512
  551
  593
  636
  682
  730
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -129
  53
  39
  51
  65
  79
  94
  110
  127
  146
  165
  186
  208
  231
  255
  281
  308
  337
  368
  399
  433
  468
  506
  544
  586
  630
  675
  723
  773
  826
  882
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  25
  31
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  149
  156
  164
  173
  182
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  6
  -97
  -12
  -21
  -32
  -43
  -55
  -68
  -82
  -98
  -114
  -131
  -150
  -169
  -190
  -212
  -235
  -260
  -286
  -313
  -342
  -372
  -405
  -438
  -474
  -512
  -551
  -593
  -636
  -682
  -730
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  85
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  20
  21
  15
  8
  0
  -8
  -18
  -28
  -40
  -52
  -65
  -80
  -95
  -111
  -129
  -147
  -167
  -188
  -210
  -233
  -258
  -284
  -311
  -340
  -370
  -402
  -436
  -472
  -509
  -549
Discount rate, %
 
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  18
  18
  12
  6
  0
  -5
  -10
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  26.2
  23.5
  19.8
  15.5
  11.4
  7.8
  5.1
  3.1
  1.8
  1.0
  0.5
  0.3
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

JMP Group LLC, formerly JMP Group, Inc., is a full-service investment banking and asset management firm. The Company operates in five segments: Broker-Dealer, Asset Management, Corporate Credit, Investment Income and Corporate Costs. The Broker-Dealer segment includes a range of services, such as underwriting and acting as a placement agent for public and private capital markets raising transactions and financial advisory services in mergers and acquisitions, restructuring and other strategic transactions. The Asset Management segment includes the management of a range of pooled investment vehicles. The Corporate Credit segment includes the management of collateralized loan obligations and small business loans. The Investment Income segment includes income from the Company's principal investments in public and private securities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  JMP Group (JMP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40.1
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 77.3%
Total Debt to Equity 77.3%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 1.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Equity 2.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 82.3%
EBITDA Margin 20.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Operating Margin 1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin 1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate -133.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.6%
Payout Ratio 266.7%

JMP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JMP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $169 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by JMP Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of JMP Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JMP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for JMP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of JMP Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of JMP Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JMP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JMP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 33.7% for JMP Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for JMP Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JMP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JMP are equal to 2.1%.

Life of production assets of 3.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in JMP Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JMP is equal to -50.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $119 million for JMP Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.457 million for JMP Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of JMP Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Investor Network: JMP Group LLC to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-02-17 07:25AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ JMP reports 2Q loss   [Aug-01-17 11:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ JMP Group Declares Third Quarter 2017 Monthly Distributions   [Jul-20-17 04:20PM  Business Wire]
▶ JMP Group Announces Closing of CLO Transaction   [Jun-30-17 06:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ JMP reports 1Q loss   [Apr-26-17 06:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ JMP posts 4Q profit   [Feb-15-17 06:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ JMP Group Declares First Quarter 2017 Monthly Distributions   [Jan-19-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ How Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc (XENE) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-20-16 12:03AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Tech IPOs and Mega Mergers: What to Expect in 2017   [Nov-22-16 08:03PM  at Bloomberg]
▶ JMP Group Announces JMP Bryan Garnier Strategic Alliance   [Nov-08-16 06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ JMP Group Declares Third Quarter 2016 Monthly Distributions   [Jul-18-16 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Mortgage Rates: Brexit Or No, Borrowing Is Cheap   [Jun-23-16 12:35PM  at Forbes]
▶ JPMorgan Chase and GoPro Inc. Jump As Stocks Soar -- Again   [Apr-13-16 07:43PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of JMP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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