Intrinsic value of JMU ADR - JMU

Previous Close

$1.02

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$1.02

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of JMU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
Revenue, $m
  108
  129
  152
  177
  205
  235
  267
  301
  337
  375
  415
  457
  501
  546
  594
  643
  695
  749
  804
  862
  922
  984
  1,049
  1,117
  1,187
  1,260
  1,337
  1,416
  1,499
  1,585
Variable operating expenses, $m
  146
  172
  201
  233
  268
  305
  345
  388
  433
  480
  518
  570
  625
  682
  741
  803
  867
  934
  1,003
  1,075
  1,150
  1,228
  1,309
  1,394
  1,481
  1,573
  1,668
  1,767
  1,870
  1,978
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  146
  172
  201
  233
  268
  305
  345
  388
  433
  480
  518
  570
  625
  682
  741
  803
  867
  934
  1,003
  1,075
  1,150
  1,228
  1,309
  1,394
  1,481
  1,573
  1,668
  1,767
  1,870
  1,978
Operating income, $m
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -95
  -105
  -103
  -113
  -124
  -135
  -147
  -159
  -172
  -185
  -199
  -213
  -228
  -244
  -260
  -277
  -294
  -312
  -331
  -351
  -371
  -393
EBITDA, $m
  -21
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -67
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -100
  -109
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -149
  -160
  -171
  -183
  -196
  -209
  -222
  -236
  -251
  -266
  -281
  -298
  -315
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  22
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
Earnings before tax, $m
  -39
  -45
  -52
  -59
  -67
  -75
  -85
  -94
  -105
  -115
  -115
  -127
  -139
  -152
  -166
  -180
  -195
  -210
  -226
  -242
  -259
  -277
  -296
  -315
  -335
  -356
  -378
  -400
  -424
  -449
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -39
  -45
  -52
  -59
  -67
  -75
  -85
  -94
  -105
  -115
  -115
  -127
  -139
  -152
  -166
  -180
  -195
  -210
  -226
  -242
  -259
  -277
  -296
  -315
  -335
  -356
  -378
  -400
  -424
  -449

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  164
  197
  232
  271
  314
  359
  408
  460
  516
  574
  635
  699
  766
  835
  908
  984
  1,063
  1,144
  1,230
  1,318
  1,410
  1,505
  1,605
  1,708
  1,815
  1,927
  2,044
  2,165
  2,292
  2,424
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  164
  197
  232
  271
  314
  359
  408
  460
  516
  574
  635
  699
  766
  835
  908
  984
  1,063
  1,144
  1,230
  1,318
  1,410
  1,505
  1,605
  1,708
  1,815
  1,927
  2,044
  2,165
  2,292
  2,424
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.659
  0.655
  0.655
  0.653
  0.653
  0.655
  0.654
  0.654
  0.653
  0.653
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.653
  0.654
  0.655
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
Average production assets, $m
  116
  139
  164
  192
  222
  254
  288
  325
  364
  405
  448
  494
  541
  590
  641
  695
  751
  808
  868
  931
  996
  1,063
  1,133
  1,206
  1,282
  1,361
  1,443
  1,529
  1,619
  1,712
Working capital, $m
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
Total debt, $m
  14
  22
  31
  40
  50
  61
  73
  85
  98
  112
  127
  142
  158
  175
  192
  210
  229
  249
  269
  290
  312
  335
  359
  383
  409
  436
  464
  493
  523
  554
Total liabilities, $m
  39
  47
  56
  65
  75
  86
  98
  110
  123
  137
  152
  167
  183
  200
  217
  235
  254
  274
  294
  315
  337
  360
  383
  408
  434
  461
  488
  517
  548
  579
Total equity, $m
  125
  150
  177
  206
  239
  274
  311
  350
  392
  437
  483
  532
  583
  636
  691
  749
  809
  871
  936
  1,003
  1,073
  1,146
  1,221
  1,300
  1,381
  1,467
  1,555
  1,648
  1,744
  1,845
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  164
  197
  233
  271
  314
  360
  409
  460
  515
  574
  635
  699
  766
  836
  908
  984
  1,063
  1,145
  1,230
  1,318
  1,410
  1,506
  1,604
  1,708
  1,815
  1,928
  2,043
  2,165
  2,292
  2,424
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.120
  0.150
  0.170
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -39
  -45
  -52
  -59
  -67
  -75
  -85
  -94
  -105
  -115
  -115
  -127
  -139
  -152
  -166
  -180
  -195
  -210
  -226
  -242
  -259
  -277
  -296
  -315
  -335
  -356
  -378
  -400
  -424
  -449
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
Funds from operations, $m
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -52
  -60
  -68
  -76
  -85
  -95
  -104
  -115
  -126
  -137
  -148
  -161
  -173
  -186
  -200
  -214
  -229
  -244
  -260
  -277
  -294
  -312
  -331
  -351
  -371
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  -21
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -50
  -57
  -65
  -74
  -83
  -92
  -102
  -112
  -122
  -134
  -145
  -157
  -170
  -183
  -196
  -210
  -225
  -240
  -256
  -272
  -289
  -307
  -326
  -345
  -365
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
Free cash flow, $m
  -45
  -54
  -62
  -72
  -82
  -92
  -104
  -115
  -127
  -140
  -153
  -167
  -181
  -196
  -212
  -228
  -244
  -261
  -279
  -298
  -317
  -337
  -358
  -380
  -403
  -426
  -451
  -477
  -504
  -532
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  61
  70
  79
  89
  99
  110
  122
  134
  146
  160
  161
  175
  190
  205
  221
  238
  255
  272
  290
  310
  329
  350
  371
  394
  417
  441
  466
  493
  520
  549
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  68
  78
  88
  98
  109
  121
  134
  146
  159
  174
  176
  190
  206
  222
  238
  256
  274
  292
  310
  331
  351
  373
  395
  419
  443
  468
  494
  522
  550
  581
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -61
  -70
  -79
  -89
  -99
  -110
  -122
  -134
  -146
  -160
  -161
  -175
  -190
  -205
  -221
  -238
  -255
  -272
  -290
  -310
  -329
  -350
  -371
  -394
  -417
  -441
  -466
  -493
  -520
  -549
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -39
  -46
  -54
  -63
  -72
  -81
  -92
  -103
  -114
  -126
  -139
  -152
  -165
  -180
  -194
  -210
  -225
  -242
  -259
  -277
  -295
  -315
  -335
  -355
  -377
  -400
  -423
  -448
  -473
  -500
Discount rate, %
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -55
  -55
  -54
  -52
  -50
  -47
  -43
  -39
  -35
  -31
  -27
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  54.3
  30.2
  17.2
  10.0
  5.9
  3.6
  2.2
  1.4
  0.8
  0.5
  0.4
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

JMU Limited, formerly Wowo Limited, operates a business-to-business (B2B) online e-commerce platform that provides integrated services to suppliers and customers in the catering industry. The Company promotes the use of its platform for small- and medium-sized restaurants and restaurant chains in China. It provides one-stop procurement services, as well as other value-added services. It offers a selection of products through its Website, www.ccjoin.com, and its mobile applications. As of December 31, 2015, the Company’s offerings (including both online direct sales and online marketplace offerings) were organized into 10 product categories on its Website, including food ingredients; seasonings; alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks; hotel appliances; tableware; kitchen appliances; office appliances; furniture; hotel and restaurant information systems, and hotel and restaurant decoration. Its customers include restaurants, restaurant chains, hotels, food product manufacturers and others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  JMU ADR (JMU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -60.2
Price to Sales 20.6
Price to Book 6.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -251
Price to Free Cash Flow -188.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 563.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -88.2%
Return On Total Capital -9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.7%
Return On Equity -9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.9%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.1%
EBITDA Margin -26%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -314.7%
Operating Margin -38.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -334%
Pre-Tax Margin -38.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -334%
Net Profit Margin -34.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -296.3%
Effective Tax Rate 10.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

JMU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JMU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $88.736549 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by JMU ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of JMU ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JMU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for JMU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of JMU ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of JMU ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JMU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 138.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JMU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.7% for JMU ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for JMU ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JMU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JMU are equal to 108%.

Life of production assets of 22.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in JMU ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JMU is equal to -6.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $103.549859 million for JMU ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.197 million for JMU ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of JMU ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ JMU Announces ADS Ratio Change   [Aug-01-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ JMU Announces Change to Board of Directors   [Jul-25-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ JMU Announces Change to Board of Directors   [May-02-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ JMU Announces New Ready-to-Cook Food Strategy   [Mar-19-18 08:35AM  PR Newswire]
▶ JMU Limited (NASDAQ:JMU): Is Tech An Attractive Sector Play?   [Feb-09-18 12:42PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ JMU Announces Results of 2017 Annual General Meeting   [Jan-05-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Are JMU Limiteds (NASDAQ:JMU) Interest Costs Too High?   [Jan-01-18 01:45PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ How Does JMU Limited (JMU) Compare To The Tech Sector?   [Nov-08-17 03:49PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ JMU Provides Supplier Update for August and September   [Sep-28-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ JMU Announces Change to Board of Directors   [Jun-16-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ JMU to Participate in HSBC Internet, Media & Education Day   [Feb-28-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ JM Wowo Announces Results of 2016 Annual General Meeting   [Dec-20-16 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]

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