Intrinsic value of Nordstrom, Inc. - JWN

Previous Close

$43.86

  Intrinsic Value

$83.60

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+91%

Previous close

$43.86

 
Intrinsic value

$83.60

 
Up/down potential

+91%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of JWN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  15,989
  16,544
  17,143
  17,788
  18,479
  19,217
  20,004
  20,842
  21,731
  22,675
  23,674
  24,732
  25,849
  27,030
  28,277
  29,592
  30,978
  32,439
  33,978
  35,599
  37,305
  39,101
  40,991
  42,979
  45,069
  47,268
  49,579
  52,009
  54,563
  57,248
Variable operating expenses, $m
  13,302
  13,763
  14,260
  14,796
  15,370
  15,983
  16,637
  17,332
  18,071
  18,854
  19,661
  20,539
  21,467
  22,448
  23,483
  24,575
  25,726
  26,939
  28,218
  29,564
  30,981
  32,472
  34,041
  35,692
  37,428
  39,254
  41,174
  43,192
  45,313
  47,542
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1,747
  1,785
  1,824
  1,864
  1,905
  1,947
  1,990
  2,034
  2,079
  2,124
  2,171
  2,219
  2,268
  2,318
  2,369
  2,421
  2,474
  2,528
  2,584
  2,641
  2,699
  2,758
  2,819
  2,881
  2,945
  3,009
  3,076
  3,143
  3,212
  3,283
Total operating expenses, $m
  15,049
  15,548
  16,084
  16,660
  17,275
  17,930
  18,627
  19,366
  20,150
  20,978
  21,832
  22,758
  23,735
  24,766
  25,852
  26,996
  28,200
  29,467
  30,802
  32,205
  33,680
  35,230
  36,860
  38,573
  40,373
  42,263
  44,250
  46,335
  48,525
  50,825
Operating income, $m
  940
  996
  1,058
  1,127
  1,204
  1,287
  1,377
  1,476
  1,582
  1,696
  1,842
  1,974
  2,115
  2,265
  2,425
  2,596
  2,778
  2,971
  3,176
  3,394
  3,626
  3,871
  4,130
  4,405
  4,696
  5,004
  5,330
  5,674
  6,038
  6,423
EBITDA, $m
  1,637
  1,716
  1,804
  1,900
  2,005
  2,120
  2,243
  2,377
  2,520
  2,674
  2,839
  3,015
  3,203
  3,403
  3,616
  3,842
  4,082
  4,337
  4,607
  4,893
  5,196
  5,517
  5,856
  6,215
  6,594
  6,994
  7,417
  7,864
  8,335
  8,833
Interest expense (income), $m
  134
  148
  161
  175
  190
  206
  223
  241
  261
  282
  304
  327
  352
  379
  406
  436
  467
  500
  534
  571
  609
  649
  692
  737
  784
  833
  885
  940
  998
  1,058
  1,122
Earnings before tax, $m
  793
  835
  884
  938
  998
  1,064
  1,136
  1,215
  1,300
  1,392
  1,515
  1,622
  1,736
  1,858
  1,989
  2,129
  2,278
  2,437
  2,606
  2,785
  2,976
  3,179
  3,394
  3,622
  3,863
  4,119
  4,390
  4,677
  4,980
  5,301
Tax expense, $m
  214
  225
  239
  253
  269
  287
  307
  328
  351
  376
  409
  438
  469
  502
  537
  575
  615
  658
  704
  752
  804
  858
  916
  978
  1,043
  1,112
  1,185
  1,263
  1,345
  1,431
Net income, $m
  579
  610
  645
  685
  729
  777
  829
  887
  949
  1,016
  1,106
  1,184
  1,267
  1,357
  1,452
  1,554
  1,663
  1,779
  1,902
  2,033
  2,173
  2,320
  2,477
  2,644
  2,820
  3,007
  3,205
  3,414
  3,635
  3,869

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,384
  8,675
  8,989
  9,328
  9,690
  10,077
  10,490
  10,929
  11,396
  11,890
  12,414
  12,969
  13,555
  14,174
  14,828
  15,517
  16,244
  17,010
  17,818
  18,668
  19,562
  20,504
  21,495
  22,537
  23,634
  24,786
  25,999
  27,273
  28,612
  30,020
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,384
  8,675
  8,989
  9,328
  9,690
  10,077
  10,490
  10,929
  11,396
  11,890
  12,414
  12,969
  13,555
  14,174
  14,828
  15,517
  16,244
  17,010
  17,818
  18,668
  19,562
  20,504
  21,495
  22,537
  23,634
  24,786
  25,999
  27,273
  28,612
  30,020
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
  1.907
Average production assets, $m
  4,173
  4,318
  4,474
  4,643
  4,823
  5,016
  5,221
  5,440
  5,672
  5,918
  6,179
  6,455
  6,747
  7,055
  7,380
  7,723
  8,085
  8,467
  8,868
  9,291
  9,737
  10,205
  10,699
  11,217
  11,763
  12,337
  12,940
  13,574
  14,241
  14,942
Working capital, $m
  -943
  -976
  -1,011
  -1,049
  -1,090
  -1,134
  -1,180
  -1,230
  -1,282
  -1,338
  -1,397
  -1,459
  -1,525
  -1,595
  -1,668
  -1,746
  -1,828
  -1,914
  -2,005
  -2,100
  -2,201
  -2,307
  -2,418
  -2,536
  -2,659
  -2,789
  -2,925
  -3,069
  -3,219
  -3,378
Total debt, $m
  2,977
  3,233
  3,510
  3,807
  4,126
  4,467
  4,830
  5,217
  5,627
  6,063
  6,524
  7,012
  7,527
  8,072
  8,647
  9,254
  9,894
  10,568
  11,278
  12,026
  12,814
  13,643
  14,515
  15,432
  16,397
  17,411
  18,478
  19,599
  20,778
  22,016
Total liabilities, $m
  7,378
  7,634
  7,911
  8,208
  8,527
  8,868
  9,231
  9,618
  10,028
  10,464
  10,925
  11,413
  11,928
  12,473
  13,048
  13,655
  14,295
  14,969
  15,679
  16,427
  17,215
  18,044
  18,916
  19,833
  20,798
  21,812
  22,879
  24,000
  25,179
  26,417
Total equity, $m
  1,006
  1,041
  1,079
  1,119
  1,163
  1,209
  1,259
  1,311
  1,367
  1,427
  1,490
  1,556
  1,627
  1,701
  1,779
  1,862
  1,949
  2,041
  2,138
  2,240
  2,347
  2,460
  2,579
  2,704
  2,836
  2,974
  3,120
  3,273
  3,433
  3,602
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,384
  8,675
  8,990
  9,327
  9,690
  10,077
  10,490
  10,929
  11,395
  11,891
  12,415
  12,969
  13,555
  14,174
  14,827
  15,517
  16,244
  17,010
  17,817
  18,667
  19,562
  20,504
  21,495
  22,537
  23,634
  24,786
  25,999
  27,273
  28,612
  30,019
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.960
  3.110
  3.250
  3.400
  3.550
  3.690
  3.840
  3.980
  4.110
  4.250
  4.380
  4.510
  4.630
  4.750
  4.860
  4.970
  5.080
  5.180
  5.270
  5.370
  5.460
  5.540
  5.630
  5.710
  5.780
  5.850
  5.920
  5.990
  6.050
  6.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  579
  610
  645
  685
  729
  777
  829
  887
  949
  1,016
  1,106
  1,184
  1,267
  1,357
  1,452
  1,554
  1,663
  1,779
  1,902
  2,033
  2,173
  2,320
  2,477
  2,644
  2,820
  3,007
  3,205
  3,414
  3,635
  3,869
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  697
  720
  745
  773
  802
  833
  866
  901
  939
  978
  997
  1,041
  1,088
  1,138
  1,190
  1,246
  1,304
  1,366
  1,430
  1,499
  1,570
  1,646
  1,726
  1,809
  1,897
  1,990
  2,087
  2,189
  2,297
  2,410
Funds from operations, $m
  1,275
  1,330
  1,391
  1,457
  1,530
  1,610
  1,695
  1,788
  1,888
  1,995
  2,103
  2,225
  2,355
  2,495
  2,643
  2,800
  2,967
  3,144
  3,333
  3,532
  3,743
  3,967
  4,203
  4,453
  4,717
  4,997
  5,292
  5,603
  5,932
  6,279
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -158
Cash from operations, $m
  1,306
  1,363
  1,426
  1,495
  1,571
  1,653
  1,742
  1,837
  1,940
  2,050
  2,162
  2,287
  2,421
  2,564
  2,716
  2,878
  3,049
  3,231
  3,423
  3,628
  3,844
  4,072
  4,314
  4,570
  4,841
  5,126
  5,428
  5,747
  6,083
  6,438
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -651
  -673
  -696
  -722
  -749
  -778
  -809
  -842
  -877
  -915
  -955
  -997
  -1,041
  -1,088
  -1,138
  -1,190
  -1,246
  -1,304
  -1,366
  -1,430
  -1,499
  -1,570
  -1,646
  -1,726
  -1,809
  -1,897
  -1,990
  -2,087
  -2,189
  -2,297
New CAPEX, $m
  -136
  -145
  -156
  -168
  -180
  -193
  -205
  -219
  -232
  -246
  -261
  -276
  -292
  -308
  -325
  -343
  -362
  -381
  -402
  -423
  -445
  -469
  -493
  -519
  -546
  -574
  -603
  -634
  -667
  -701
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -787
  -818
  -852
  -890
  -929
  -971
  -1,014
  -1,061
  -1,109
  -1,161
  -1,216
  -1,273
  -1,333
  -1,396
  -1,463
  -1,533
  -1,608
  -1,685
  -1,768
  -1,853
  -1,944
  -2,039
  -2,139
  -2,245
  -2,355
  -2,471
  -2,593
  -2,721
  -2,856
  -2,998
Free cash flow, $m
  518
  545
  573
  605
  642
  682
  727
  777
  831
  889
  946
  1,015
  1,089
  1,168
  1,253
  1,344
  1,441
  1,545
  1,656
  1,774
  1,900
  2,033
  2,175
  2,326
  2,486
  2,655
  2,835
  3,025
  3,227
  3,440
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  240
  256
  277
  297
  319
  341
  363
  386
  411
  435
  461
  488
  516
  545
  575
  607
  640
  674
  710
  748
  787
  829
  872
  917
  965
  1,014
  1,067
  1,121
  1,179
  1,239
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  240
  256
  277
  297
  319
  341
  363
  386
  411
  435
  461
  488
  516
  545
  575
  607
  640
  674
  710
  748
  787
  829
  872
  917
  965
  1,014
  1,067
  1,121
  1,179
  1,239
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  758
  801
  850
  903
  961
  1,023
  1,091
  1,163
  1,241
  1,325
  1,407
  1,503
  1,604
  1,713
  1,828
  1,951
  2,081
  2,220
  2,366
  2,522
  2,687
  2,862
  3,047
  3,243
  3,451
  3,670
  3,902
  4,147
  4,406
  4,679
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  729
  766
  812
  862
  917
  977
  1,041
  1,111
  1,185
  1,265
  1,344
  1,436
  1,534
  1,638
  1,750
  1,868
  1,994
  2,128
  2,270
  2,420
  2,580
  2,749
  2,928
  3,118
  3,319
  3,531
  3,756
  3,994
  4,245
  4,510
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  699
  701
  707
  710
  711
  709
  703
  694
  681
  663
  638
  613
  583
  550
  514
  475
  434
  392
  349
  308
  267
  228
  192
  159
  129
  103
  81
  62
  46
  34
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Nordstrom, Inc. is a fashion specialty retailer in the United States. The Company's segments include Retail and Credit. As of March 20, 2017, the Company operated 344 the United States stores located in 40 states as well as an e-commerce business. The Company also offers its customers a variety of payment products and services, including credit and debit cards. As of March 20, 2017, the Retail segment included its 117 Nordstrom-branded full-line stores in the United States and Nordstrom.com, 216 off-price Nordstrom Rack stores, five Canada full-line stores, Nordstromrack.com/HauteLook, seven Trunk Club clubhouses and TrunkClub.com, two Jeffrey boutiques and two clearance stores that operate under the name Last Chance. The Company, through Credit segment, allows its customers to access a range of payment products and services, including a Nordstrom-branded private label card, approximately two Nordstrom-branded Visa credit cards and a debit card for Nordstrom purchases.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.1
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 8.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 92
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 317.6%
Total Debt to Equity 318.9%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Return On Total Capital 9.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Return On Equity 40.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.3%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
EBITDA Margin 9.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Operating Margin 5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Effective Tax Rate 48.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42%
Payout Ratio 72.3%

JWN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JWN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $15478 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nordstrom, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Nordstrom, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JWN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for JWN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nordstrom, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nordstrom, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JWN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1709 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JWN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Nordstrom, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nordstrom, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JWN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JWN are equal to 26.1%.

Life of production assets of 6.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nordstrom, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JWN is equal to -5.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $977 million for Nordstrom, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 157.979 million for Nordstrom, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nordstrom, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.9 billion.

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