Intrinsic value of Kimball Electronics - KE

Previous Close

$17.20

  Intrinsic Value

$55.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+221%

Previous close

$17.20

 
Intrinsic value

$55.21

 
Up/down potential

+221%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of KE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.90
  20.21
  18.69
  17.32
  16.09
  14.98
  13.98
  13.08
  12.27
  11.55
  10.89
  10.30
  9.77
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
Revenue, $m
  1,135
  1,364
  1,619
  1,899
  2,205
  2,535
  2,890
  3,268
  3,669
  4,093
  4,539
  5,006
  5,495
  6,006
  6,539
  7,093
  7,670
  8,270
  8,893
  9,541
  10,214
  10,913
  11,641
  12,397
  13,184
  14,003
  14,856
  15,745
  16,672
  17,638
Variable operating expenses, $m
  964
  1,159
  1,375
  1,613
  1,873
  2,153
  2,454
  2,775
  3,116
  3,475
  3,853
  4,249
  4,665
  5,098
  5,550
  6,021
  6,511
  7,020
  7,549
  8,099
  8,670
  9,264
  9,881
  10,523
  11,191
  11,887
  12,611
  13,365
  14,152
  14,972
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  101
  103
  106
  108
  110
  113
  115
  118
  120
  123
  126
  129
  131
  134
  137
  140
  143
  146
  150
  153
  156
  160
  163
  167
  171
  174
  178
  182
  186
  190
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,065
  1,262
  1,481
  1,721
  1,983
  2,266
  2,569
  2,893
  3,236
  3,598
  3,979
  4,378
  4,796
  5,232
  5,687
  6,161
  6,654
  7,166
  7,699
  8,252
  8,826
  9,424
  10,044
  10,690
  11,362
  12,061
  12,789
  13,547
  14,338
  15,162
Operating income, $m
  69
  102
  138
  178
  222
  269
  320
  375
  433
  495
  560
  628
  699
  774
  851
  932
  1,016
  1,104
  1,195
  1,289
  1,388
  1,490
  1,596
  1,707
  1,822
  1,942
  2,067
  2,198
  2,334
  2,476
EBITDA, $m
  98
  136
  179
  225
  277
  332
  392
  456
  524
  595
  671
  750
  833
  920
  1,011
  1,105
  1,203
  1,305
  1,412
  1,522
  1,637
  1,756
  1,880
  2,010
  2,144
  2,284
  2,430
  2,582
  2,741
  2,906
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  3
  6
  9
  12
  16
  20
  25
  29
  34
  40
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  76
  84
  91
  99
  107
  115
  124
  133
  142
  152
  162
  172
  183
  195
Earnings before tax, $m
  69
  99
  132
  169
  209
  253
  300
  350
  404
  460
  521
  583
  649
  717
  788
  862
  940
  1,020
  1,104
  1,190
  1,281
  1,375
  1,473
  1,574
  1,680
  1,791
  1,906
  2,026
  2,151
  2,281
Tax expense, $m
  19
  27
  36
  46
  57
  68
  81
  95
  109
  124
  141
  157
  175
  194
  213
  233
  254
  275
  298
  321
  346
  371
  398
  425
  454
  484
  515
  547
  581
  616
Net income, $m
  50
  72
  96
  123
  153
  185
  219
  256
  295
  336
  380
  426
  473
  523
  575
  629
  686
  745
  806
  869
  935
  1,004
  1,075
  1,149
  1,227
  1,307
  1,391
  1,479
  1,570
  1,665

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  676
  813
  965
  1,132
  1,314
  1,511
  1,722
  1,948
  2,187
  2,439
  2,705
  2,983
  3,275
  3,579
  3,897
  4,227
  4,571
  4,928
  5,300
  5,686
  6,087
  6,504
  6,937
  7,388
  7,857
  8,345
  8,854
  9,383
  9,935
  10,511
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  676
  813
  965
  1,132
  1,314
  1,511
  1,722
  1,948
  2,187
  2,439
  2,705
  2,983
  3,275
  3,579
  3,897
  4,227
  4,571
  4,928
  5,300
  5,686
  6,087
  6,504
  6,937
  7,388
  7,857
  8,345
  8,854
  9,383
  9,935
  10,511
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.679
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
  1.678
Average production assets, $m
  163
  196
  233
  274
  318
  365
  416
  471
  528
  589
  654
  721
  791
  865
  942
  1,021
  1,104
  1,191
  1,281
  1,374
  1,471
  1,572
  1,676
  1,785
  1,899
  2,016
  2,139
  2,267
  2,401
  2,540
Working capital, $m
  188
  226
  269
  315
  366
  421
  480
  542
  609
  679
  753
  831
  912
  997
  1,085
  1,177
  1,273
  1,373
  1,476
  1,584
  1,695
  1,812
  1,932
  2,058
  2,189
  2,325
  2,466
  2,614
  2,767
  2,928
Total debt, $m
  56
  109
  167
  231
  301
  376
  457
  543
  635
  731
  833
  940
  1,052
  1,168
  1,290
  1,416
  1,548
  1,685
  1,827
  1,975
  2,129
  2,288
  2,454
  2,627
  2,807
  2,994
  3,188
  3,391
  3,603
  3,823
Total liabilities, $m
  259
  311
  370
  434
  503
  579
  660
  746
  837
  934
  1,036
  1,143
  1,254
  1,371
  1,492
  1,619
  1,751
  1,888
  2,030
  2,178
  2,331
  2,491
  2,657
  2,830
  3,009
  3,196
  3,391
  3,594
  3,805
  4,026
Total equity, $m
  417
  502
  595
  698
  811
  932
  1,063
  1,202
  1,349
  1,505
  1,669
  1,841
  2,021
  2,209
  2,404
  2,608
  2,820
  3,041
  3,270
  3,508
  3,756
  4,013
  4,280
  4,558
  4,848
  5,149
  5,463
  5,789
  6,130
  6,485
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  676
  813
  965
  1,132
  1,314
  1,511
  1,723
  1,948
  2,186
  2,439
  2,705
  2,984
  3,275
  3,580
  3,896
  4,227
  4,571
  4,929
  5,300
  5,686
  6,087
  6,504
  6,937
  7,388
  7,857
  8,345
  8,854
  9,383
  9,935
  10,511
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.140
  0.220
  0.280
  0.330
  0.370
  0.400
  0.430
  0.450
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  50
  72
  96
  123
  153
  185
  219
  256
  295
  336
  380
  426
  473
  523
  575
  629
  686
  745
  806
  869
  935
  1,004
  1,075
  1,149
  1,227
  1,307
  1,391
  1,479
  1,570
  1,665
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  29
  34
  41
  47
  55
  63
  72
  81
  91
  101
  111
  122
  134
  147
  160
  173
  187
  202
  217
  233
  249
  266
  284
  303
  322
  342
  363
  384
  407
  430
Funds from operations, $m
  79
  106
  137
  171
  208
  248
  291
  337
  385
  437
  491
  548
  608
  670
  735
  803
  873
  946
  1,023
  1,102
  1,184
  1,270
  1,359
  1,452
  1,548
  1,649
  1,754
  1,863
  1,977
  2,096
Change in working capital, $m
  34
  38
  42
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  103
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
Cash from operations, $m
  45
  68
  95
  124
  157
  193
  232
  274
  319
  367
  417
  470
  526
  585
  647
  711
  777
  847
  919
  994
  1,073
  1,154
  1,238
  1,326
  1,418
  1,513
  1,612
  1,716
  1,823
  1,935
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -40
  -46
  -54
  -62
  -71
  -80
  -90
  -100
  -111
  -122
  -134
  -147
  -160
  -173
  -187
  -202
  -217
  -233
  -249
  -266
  -284
  -303
  -322
  -342
  -363
  -384
  -407
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -52
  -61
  -70
  -80
  -90
  -102
  -113
  -125
  -138
  -151
  -164
  -178
  -192
  -208
  -224
  -240
  -256
  -273
  -292
  -310
  -330
  -350
  -371
  -393
  -416
  -440
  -465
  -491
  -517
  -546
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  8
  25
  44
  67
  92
  119
  149
  181
  216
  253
  292
  334
  377
  423
  471
  521
  573
  628
  684
  743
  804
  867
  933
  1,002
  1,073
  1,148
  1,225
  1,305
  1,389
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  46
  52
  58
  64
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  221
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  25
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  71
  64
  58
  64
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  221
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  65
  72
  83
  108
  136
  167
  200
  235
  273
  313
  355
  399
  445
  494
  545
  598
  653
  710
  770
  832
  896
  964
  1,033
  1,106
  1,182
  1,260
  1,342
  1,428
  1,517
  1,610
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -75
  -84
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -229
  -238
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -289
  -301
  -314
  -327
  -341
  -355
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -10
  -12
  -11
  5
  24
  45
  70
  96
  125
  157
  191
  227
  265
  306
  349
  394
  441
  490
  541
  594
  649
  706
  766
  828
  892
  959
  1,029
  1,101
  1,176
  1,255
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -10
  -11
  -9
  4
  19
  33
  47
  60
  72
  82
  91
  97
  101
  103
  102
  100
  96
  90
  83
  75
  67
  59
  50
  42
  35
  28
  22
  17
  13
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  94.9
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8

Kimball Electronics, Inc. (Kimball Electronics) is an electronics manufacturing services (EMS) company. The Company is engaged in producing electronics for the automotive, medical, industrial and public safety markets. It provides design, engineering, manufacturing, packaging and distribution of electronic assemblies and circuit boards on a contract basis to a range of industries. The Company offers various engineering, manufacturing and supply chain services, such as design services; production and testing of printed circuit board assemblies (PCBAS); industrialization and automation of manufacturing processes; product design and process validation and qualification; reliability testing, which include testing of products under a series of environmental conditions; assembly, production and packaging of other related non-electronic products, and product life cycle management. It is engaged in producing safety critical electronic assemblies for the automotive market.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kimball Electronics (KE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.6
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 35.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 2.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 9.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Equity 10.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
EBITDA Margin 7.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Operating Margin 4.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Net Profit Margin 3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 22.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

KE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $930.914 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kimball Electronics. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Kimball Electronics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kimball Electronics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kimball Electronics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $99 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Kimball Electronics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kimball Electronics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KE are equal to 14.4%.

Life of production assets of 5.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kimball Electronics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KE is equal to 16.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $342.272 million for Kimball Electronics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.695 million for Kimball Electronics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kimball Electronics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Kimball Electronics: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-06-18 07:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kimball Electronics: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-01-18 05:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kimball Electronics: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 06:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kimball Electronics, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-08-18 07:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Kimball Electronics reports 2Q loss   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Kimball Electronics, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-02-17 09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Kimball Electronics posts 1Q profit   [Nov-01-17 06:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kimball Electronics posts 4Q profit   [Aug-04-17 12:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Kimball Electronics posts 3Q profit   [May-01-17 04:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kimball Electronics posts 2Q profit   [Feb-01-17 05:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Kimball Electronics Inc (KE)   [Dec-12-16 11:07AM  at Insider Monkey]

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