Intrinsic value of Kelly Services Cl A - KELYA

Previous Close

$28.41

  Intrinsic Value

$13.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-54%

Previous close

$28.41

 
Intrinsic value

$13.10

 
Up/down potential

-54%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KELYA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.37
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
Revenue, $m
  5,277
  5,620
  5,977
  6,348
  6,735
  7,138
  7,558
  7,997
  8,454
  8,931
  9,429
  9,950
  10,495
  11,064
  11,659
  12,282
  12,934
  13,617
  14,332
  15,081
  15,865
  16,687
  17,549
  18,452
  19,400
  20,393
  21,434
  22,527
  23,673
  24,875
  26,136
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5,546
  5,898
  6,264
  6,645
  7,042
  7,456
  7,888
  8,339
  8,809
  9,300
  9,804
  10,341
  10,901
  11,488
  12,102
  12,744
  13,417
  14,121
  14,859
  15,632
  16,443
  17,292
  18,182
  19,115
  20,094
  21,120
  22,196
  23,326
  24,510
  25,753
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,214
  5,549
  5,901
  6,267
  6,648
  7,045
  7,459
  7,892
  8,343
  8,813
  9,304
  9,808
  10,345
  10,905
  11,492
  12,106
  12,748
  13,422
  14,126
  14,864
  15,637
  16,448
  17,297
  18,187
  19,120
  20,100
  21,126
  22,202
  23,332
  24,516
  25,759
Operating income, $m
  63
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  118
  126
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  206
  216
  228
  240
  252
  265
  279
  294
  309
  325
  341
  359
  377
EBITDA, $m
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
  144
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  333
  350
  368
  387
  407
  427
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  0
  7
  15
  22
  30
  38
  47
  56
  66
  75
  86
  96
  108
  119
  132
  145
  158
  172
  187
  202
  218
  235
  253
  272
  291
  312
  333
  356
  379
  404
Earnings before tax, $m
  150
  71
  69
  67
  64
  62
  60
  58
  55
  53
  50
  56
  53
  50
  47
  44
  41
  37
  33
  30
  26
  21
  17
  12
  7
  2
  -3
  -9
  -15
  -21
  -27
Tax expense, $m
  30
  19
  19
  18
  17
  17
  16
  16
  15
  14
  14
  15
  14
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  121
  52
  50
  49
  47
  45
  44
  42
  40
  39
  37
  41
  39
  37
  35
  32
  30
  27
  24
  22
  19
  16
  12
  9
  5
  2
  -3
  -9
  -15
  -21
  -27

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,028
  2,128
  2,263
  2,404
  2,550
  2,703
  2,862
  3,028
  3,201
  3,382
  3,570
  3,768
  3,974
  4,189
  4,415
  4,651
  4,897
  5,156
  5,427
  5,710
  6,007
  6,319
  6,645
  6,987
  7,346
  7,722
  8,116
  8,530
  8,964
  9,419
  9,896
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,998
  2,128
  2,263
  2,404
  2,550
  2,703
  2,862
  3,028
  3,201
  3,382
  3,570
  3,768
  3,974
  4,189
  4,415
  4,651
  4,897
  5,156
  5,427
  5,710
  6,007
  6,319
  6,645
  6,987
  7,346
  7,722
  8,116
  8,530
  8,964
  9,419
  9,896
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
Average production assets, $m
  86
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  295
  310
  326
  343
  360
  379
  398
  418
Working capital, $m
  444
  438
  466
  495
  525
  557
  590
  624
  659
  697
  735
  776
  819
  863
  909
  958
  1,009
  1,062
  1,118
  1,176
  1,237
  1,302
  1,369
  1,439
  1,513
  1,591
  1,672
  1,757
  1,846
  1,940
  2,039
Total debt, $m
  0
  67
  136
  208
  282
  360
  441
  525
  613
  705
  801
  902
  1,007
  1,116
  1,231
  1,351
  1,477
  1,608
  1,746
  1,890
  2,042
  2,200
  2,366
  2,540
  2,723
  2,914
  3,115
  3,326
  3,546
  3,778
  4,021
Total liabilities, $m
  1,016
  1,083
  1,152
  1,224
  1,298
  1,376
  1,457
  1,541
  1,629
  1,721
  1,817
  1,918
  2,023
  2,132
  2,247
  2,367
  2,493
  2,624
  2,762
  2,906
  3,058
  3,216
  3,382
  3,556
  3,739
  3,930
  4,131
  4,342
  4,562
  4,794
  5,037
Total equity, $m
  1,012
  1,045
  1,111
  1,180
  1,252
  1,327
  1,405
  1,487
  1,572
  1,660
  1,753
  1,850
  1,951
  2,057
  2,168
  2,283
  2,405
  2,532
  2,664
  2,804
  2,950
  3,102
  3,263
  3,431
  3,607
  3,791
  3,985
  4,188
  4,401
  4,625
  4,859
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,028
  2,128
  2,263
  2,404
  2,550
  2,703
  2,862
  3,028
  3,201
  3,381
  3,570
  3,768
  3,974
  4,189
  4,415
  4,650
  4,898
  5,156
  5,426
  5,710
  6,008
  6,318
  6,645
  6,987
  7,346
  7,721
  8,116
  8,530
  8,963
  9,419
  9,896
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.060
  0.120
  0.180
  0.230
  0.270
  0.310
  0.350
  0.390
  0.420
  0.460
  0.490
  0.520
  0.540
  0.570
  0.590
  0.610
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  121
  52
  50
  49
  47
  45
  44
  42
  40
  39
  37
  41
  39
  37
  35
  32
  30
  27
  24
  22
  19
  16
  12
  9
  5
  2
  -3
  -9
  -15
  -21
  -27
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
Funds from operations, $m
  -3
  71
  70
  70
  69
  68
  67
  66
  65
  65
  64
  60
  59
  58
  57
  56
  55
  53
  52
  51
  49
  48
  46
  44
  43
  41
  38
  35
  31
  27
  23
Change in working capital, $m
  -40
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
Cash from operations, $m
  37
  44
  43
  41
  39
  37
  34
  32
  30
  27
  25
  20
  17
  14
  11
  7
  4
  0
  -4
  -8
  -12
  -16
  -21
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -51
  -58
  -67
  -75
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -4
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Cash from investing activities, $m
  10
  -14
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
Free cash flow, $m
  47
  30
  26
  23
  20
  17
  14
  11
  7
  3
  0
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -20
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -82
  -90
  -99
  -109
  -120
  -131
  -143
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -56
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
  191
  201
  211
  221
  232
  243
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  11
  16
  20
  25
  29
  34
  39
  45
  50
  56
  56
  62
  69
  76
  84
  92
  100
  109
  118
  127
  137
  148
  159
  171
  183
  197
  212
  228
  244
  262
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -56
  78
  85
  92
  100
  107
  115
  123
  133
  142
  152
  156
  167
  179
  191
  204
  218
  232
  247
  262
  278
  295
  314
  333
  354
  374
  398
  423
  449
  476
  505
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  109
  111
  115
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  285
  298
  313
  328
  345
  361
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -117
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -197
  -212
  -228
  -244
  -262
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  76
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  102
  101
  101
  100
  100
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  73
  41
  40
  39
  38
  37
  36
  34
  33
  31
  25
  23
  22
  20
  18
  17
  15
  13
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.0
  97.6
  95.9
  94.1
  92.1
  90.0
  87.8
  85.4
  83.0
  80.5
  78.2
  75.9
  73.5
  71.1
  68.7
  66.2
  63.8
  61.4
  59.0
  56.6
  54.3
  52.1
  49.8
  47.7
  45.5
  43.5
  41.4
  39.5
  37.6
  35.7

Kelly Services, Inc. is a workforce solutions provider, which is engaged in offering a range of specialty services. The Company provides workforce solutions in three regions: the Americas; Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Asia Pacific (APAC). The Company's segments are Americas Commercial, Americas Professional and Technical (Americas PT), EMEA Commercial, EMEA Professional and Technical (EMEA PT), and Outsourcing and Consulting Group (OCG). The Americas Commercial segment includes Office, Contact Center, Education, Marketing and Electronic Assembly. The Americas PT segment includes a range of specialty staffing services. The EMEA Commercial segment provides a range of staffing services, including Office, Contact Center and its temporary-to-hire service. The EMEA PT segment provides Engineering, Finance and Accounting services. The OCG segment delivers talent management solutions across multiple regions, skill sets and a spectrum of talent categories.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kelly Services Cl A (KELYA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 45.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 51
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 12.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Equity 12.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
EBITDA Margin 3.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Operating Margin 1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Payout Ratio 9.1%

KELYA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KELYA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5277 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kelly Services Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Kelly Services Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KELYA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KELYA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kelly Services Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kelly Services Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KELYA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $3 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KELYA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.7% for Kelly Services Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kelly Services Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KELYA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KELYA are equal to 1.6%.

Life of production assets of 8.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kelly Services Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KELYA is equal to 7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1012 million for Kelly Services Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.871 million for Kelly Services Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kelly Services Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Investing Is Not Rocket Science   [Dec-30-17 02:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Kelly Services(R) Names Chief Marketing Officer   [Nov-20-17 02:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ 5 Stocks Ripping Higher Ahead of Tax Reform   [Nov-14-17 04:32PM  Zacks]
▶ Kelly Services posts 3Q profit   [Nov-08-17 08:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs & Stocks Set to Soar on October Job Data   [Nov-06-17 10:20AM  Zacks]
▶ Kelly Services(R) Names Two Senior Leaders   [Oct-31-17 11:33AM  Marketwired]
▶ Is Kelly Services a Ben Graham Stock?   [Aug-22-17 03:51PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ 3 Value Stocks for Conservative Investors   [Aug-14-17 06:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Kelly Services posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 10:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Kelly Services, Inc. : May 16, 2017   [May-16-17 12:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Kelly Services posts 1Q profit   [10:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ Kelly Services posts 1Q profit   [07:58AM  Associated Press]
▶ Labor Policy Forum Addresses Gig Workers' Needs   [Feb-28-17 07:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Kelly Services(R) Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-16-17 02:25PM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of KELYA
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