Intrinsic value of Keysight Technologies Inc. - KEYS

Previous Close

$83.83

  Intrinsic Value

$38.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-54%

Previous close

$83.83

 
Intrinsic value

$38.36

 
Up/down potential

-54%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of KEYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 15.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.20
  18.68
  17.31
  16.08
  14.97
  13.98
  13.08
  12.27
  11.54
  10.89
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
  5.72
Revenue, $m
  4,661
  5,532
  6,490
  7,533
  8,661
  9,872
  11,163
  12,533
  13,979
  15,501
  17,098
  18,768
  20,513
  22,331
  24,224
  26,193
  28,241
  30,368
  32,580
  34,878
  37,266
  39,749
  42,332
  45,018
  47,815
  50,728
  53,762
  56,926
  60,225
  63,667
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,275
  5,040
  5,881
  6,797
  7,788
  8,851
  9,985
  11,187
  12,458
  13,794
  15,015
  16,482
  18,014
  19,610
  21,273
  23,002
  24,800
  26,669
  28,611
  30,629
  32,726
  34,907
  37,174
  39,534
  41,990
  44,548
  47,213
  49,990
  52,888
  55,911
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,275
  5,040
  5,881
  6,797
  7,788
  8,851
  9,985
  11,187
  12,458
  13,794
  15,015
  16,482
  18,014
  19,610
  21,273
  23,002
  24,800
  26,669
  28,611
  30,629
  32,726
  34,907
  37,174
  39,534
  41,990
  44,548
  47,213
  49,990
  52,888
  55,911
Operating income, $m
  386
  492
  609
  736
  874
  1,021
  1,178
  1,345
  1,521
  1,707
  2,083
  2,287
  2,499
  2,721
  2,951
  3,191
  3,440
  3,700
  3,969
  4,249
  4,540
  4,843
  5,157
  5,485
  5,825
  6,180
  6,550
  6,935
  7,337
  7,756
EBITDA, $m
  790
  937
  1,099
  1,276
  1,467
  1,672
  1,891
  2,123
  2,368
  2,626
  2,897
  3,180
  3,475
  3,783
  4,104
  4,437
  4,784
  5,145
  5,519
  5,909
  6,313
  6,734
  7,171
  7,627
  8,100
  8,594
  9,108
  9,644
  10,203
  10,786
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  97
  134
  175
  220
  269
  322
  379
  440
  505
  573
  645
  720
  799
  882
  967
  1,057
  1,150
  1,246
  1,347
  1,451
  1,559
  1,672
  1,789
  1,911
  2,038
  2,170
  2,307
  2,451
  2,600
  2,756
Earnings before tax, $m
  290
  359
  434
  516
  605
  699
  799
  905
  1,017
  1,134
  1,438
  1,566
  1,700
  1,839
  1,984
  2,134
  2,291
  2,454
  2,623
  2,798
  2,981
  3,170
  3,368
  3,573
  3,787
  4,010
  4,242
  4,485
  4,737
  5,001
Tax expense, $m
  78
  97
  117
  139
  163
  189
  216
  244
  274
  306
  388
  423
  459
  497
  536
  576
  619
  662
  708
  755
  805
  856
  909
  965
  1,023
  1,083
  1,145
  1,211
  1,279
  1,350
Net income, $m
  211
  262
  317
  377
  441
  510
  583
  661
  742
  828
  1,050
  1,143
  1,241
  1,342
  1,448
  1,558
  1,672
  1,791
  1,914
  2,043
  2,176
  2,314
  2,459
  2,609
  2,765
  2,927
  3,097
  3,274
  3,458
  3,651

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,999
  8,306
  9,744
  11,311
  13,005
  14,823
  16,761
  18,818
  20,990
  23,275
  25,673
  28,181
  30,800
  33,530
  36,372
  39,329
  42,403
  45,598
  48,918
  52,369
  55,955
  59,683
  63,561
  67,595
  71,795
  76,168
  80,724
  85,474
  90,428
  95,596
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,999
  8,306
  9,744
  11,311
  13,005
  14,823
  16,761
  18,818
  20,990
  23,275
  25,673
  28,181
  30,800
  33,530
  36,372
  39,329
  42,403
  45,598
  48,918
  52,369
  55,955
  59,683
  63,561
  67,595
  71,795
  76,168
  80,724
  85,474
  90,428
  95,596
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
  0.666
Average production assets, $m
  2,018
  2,395
  2,810
  3,262
  3,750
  4,275
  4,834
  5,427
  6,053
  6,712
  7,403
  8,127
  8,882
  9,669
  10,489
  11,342
  12,228
  13,150
  14,107
  15,102
  16,136
  17,211
  18,330
  19,493
  20,704
  21,965
  23,279
  24,649
  26,077
  27,568
Working capital, $m
  601
  714
  837
  972
  1,117
  1,273
  1,440
  1,617
  1,803
  2,000
  2,206
  2,421
  2,646
  2,881
  3,125
  3,379
  3,643
  3,918
  4,203
  4,499
  4,807
  5,128
  5,461
  5,807
  6,168
  6,544
  6,935
  7,343
  7,769
  8,213
Total debt, $m
  2,472
  3,233
  4,070
  4,982
  5,968
  7,026
  8,154
  9,351
  10,615
  11,945
  13,341
  14,800
  16,324
  17,913
  19,568
  21,289
  23,078
  24,937
  26,870
  28,878
  30,965
  33,135
  35,391
  37,739
  40,183
  42,729
  45,380
  48,145
  51,028
  54,036
Total liabilities, $m
  4,073
  4,834
  5,671
  6,583
  7,569
  8,627
  9,755
  10,952
  12,216
  13,546
  14,942
  16,401
  17,925
  19,514
  21,169
  22,890
  24,679
  26,538
  28,471
  30,479
  32,566
  34,736
  36,992
  39,340
  41,784
  44,330
  46,981
  49,746
  52,629
  55,637
Total equity, $m
  2,926
  3,472
  4,073
  4,728
  5,436
  6,196
  7,006
  7,866
  8,774
  9,729
  10,731
  11,780
  12,874
  14,015
  15,204
  16,440
  17,725
  19,060
  20,448
  21,890
  23,389
  24,948
  26,568
  28,255
  30,010
  31,838
  33,743
  35,728
  37,799
  39,959
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,999
  8,306
  9,744
  11,311
  13,005
  14,823
  16,761
  18,818
  20,990
  23,275
  25,673
  28,181
  30,799
  33,529
  36,373
  39,330
  42,404
  45,598
  48,919
  52,369
  55,955
  59,684
  63,560
  67,595
  71,794
  76,168
  80,724
  85,474
  90,428
  95,596
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.850
  0.930
  1.000
  1.050
  1.100
  1.130
  1.160
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.240
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.330
  1.330
  1.340
  1.340
  1.340
  1.340
  1.350
  1.350
  1.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418
  0.418

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  211
  262
  317
  377
  441
  510
  583
  661
  742
  828
  1,050
  1,143
  1,241
  1,342
  1,448
  1,558
  1,672
  1,791
  1,914
  2,043
  2,176
  2,314
  2,459
  2,609
  2,765
  2,927
  3,097
  3,274
  3,458
  3,651
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  403
  445
  490
  540
  594
  651
  713
  778
  847
  919
  814
  893
  976
  1,063
  1,153
  1,246
  1,344
  1,445
  1,550
  1,660
  1,773
  1,891
  2,014
  2,142
  2,275
  2,414
  2,558
  2,709
  2,866
  3,029
Funds from operations, $m
  615
  707
  808
  917
  1,035
  1,161
  1,296
  1,439
  1,589
  1,747
  1,863
  2,036
  2,217
  2,405
  2,601
  2,804
  3,016
  3,236
  3,465
  3,702
  3,949
  4,206
  4,473
  4,751
  5,040
  5,341
  5,655
  5,982
  6,324
  6,680
Change in working capital, $m
  101
  112
  124
  135
  146
  156
  167
  177
  187
  196
  206
  215
  225
  235
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  296
  308
  320
  333
  347
  361
  376
  391
  408
  426
  444
Cash from operations, $m
  514
  594
  684
  782
  890
  1,005
  1,129
  1,262
  1,402
  1,550
  1,657
  1,821
  1,992
  2,170
  2,357
  2,550
  2,752
  2,962
  3,179
  3,406
  3,641
  3,885
  4,140
  4,404
  4,679
  4,965
  5,264
  5,574
  5,898
  6,236
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -185
  -222
  -263
  -309
  -358
  -412
  -470
  -531
  -596
  -665
  -738
  -814
  -893
  -976
  -1,063
  -1,153
  -1,246
  -1,344
  -1,445
  -1,550
  -1,660
  -1,773
  -1,891
  -2,014
  -2,142
  -2,275
  -2,414
  -2,558
  -2,709
  -2,866
New CAPEX, $m
  -338
  -377
  -415
  -452
  -488
  -524
  -559
  -593
  -626
  -659
  -691
  -723
  -755
  -787
  -820
  -853
  -887
  -921
  -957
  -995
  -1,034
  -1,075
  -1,118
  -1,163
  -1,211
  -1,261
  -1,314
  -1,370
  -1,429
  -1,491
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -523
  -599
  -678
  -761
  -846
  -936
  -1,029
  -1,124
  -1,222
  -1,324
  -1,429
  -1,537
  -1,648
  -1,763
  -1,883
  -2,006
  -2,133
  -2,265
  -2,402
  -2,545
  -2,694
  -2,848
  -3,009
  -3,177
  -3,353
  -3,536
  -3,728
  -3,928
  -4,138
  -4,357
Free cash flow, $m
  -9
  -4
  6
  22
  43
  69
  101
  138
  179
  226
  228
  284
  344
  407
  474
  545
  619
  696
  777
  861
  947
  1,037
  1,130
  1,226
  1,326
  1,429
  1,536
  1,646
  1,761
  1,880
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  682
  761
  837
  912
  986
  1,058
  1,128
  1,197
  1,264
  1,330
  1,395
  1,460
  1,524
  1,589
  1,654
  1,721
  1,789
  1,860
  1,932
  2,008
  2,087
  2,170
  2,257
  2,348
  2,444
  2,545
  2,652
  2,764
  2,883
  3,008
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  281
  285
  284
  278
  267
  250
  227
  199
  166
  128
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  963
  1,046
  1,121
  1,190
  1,253
  1,308
  1,355
  1,396
  1,430
  1,458
  1,395
  1,460
  1,524
  1,589
  1,654
  1,721
  1,789
  1,860
  1,932
  2,008
  2,087
  2,170
  2,257
  2,348
  2,444
  2,545
  2,652
  2,764
  2,883
  3,008
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  955
  1,041
  1,127
  1,212
  1,295
  1,376
  1,456
  1,534
  1,610
  1,684
  1,624
  1,744
  1,868
  1,996
  2,129
  2,266
  2,408
  2,556
  2,709
  2,869
  3,034
  3,207
  3,387
  3,574
  3,770
  3,974
  4,188
  4,411
  4,644
  4,888
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -493
  -547
  -601
  -655
  -708
  -760
  -810
  -860
  -908
  -955
  -1,002
  -1,048
  -1,095
  -1,141
  -1,188
  -1,236
  -1,285
  -1,336
  -1,388
  -1,442
  -1,499
  -1,558
  -1,621
  -1,686
  -1,755
  -1,828
  -1,905
  -1,985
  -2,071
  -2,161
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  462
  495
  526
  557
  587
  617
  646
  674
  702
  729
  622
  695
  773
  855
  941
  1,030
  1,123
  1,220
  1,321
  1,426
  1,535
  1,649
  1,766
  1,888
  2,015
  2,146
  2,283
  2,425
  2,573
  2,728
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  443
  453
  458
  458
  455
  448
  436
  421
  403
  382
  295
  297
  294
  287
  276
  262
  244
  225
  203
  181
  159
  137
  116
  96
  78
  63
  49
  38
  28
  21
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.2
  96.8
  95.6
  94.6
  93.8
  93.1
  92.6
  92.2
  91.9
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7

Keysight Technologies, Inc. is a measurement company engaged in providing electronic design and test solutions to communications and electronics industries. The Company provides electronic design and test instruments and systems and related software, software design tools and related services that are used in the design, development, manufacture, installation, deployment and operation of electronics equipment. The Company operates through three segments: Communications Solutions Group (CSG), Electronic Industrial Solutions Group (EISG) and Services Solutions Group (SSG). The CSG and EISG segments provide electronic design and test software, instruments, and systems used in the simulation, design, validation, manufacturing, installation and optimization of electronic equipment. The SSG segment provides integrated service solutions, including repair and calibration services, professional services and remanufactured equipment.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Keysight Technologies Inc. (KEYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 152.6
Price to Sales 4.9
Price to Book 6.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 49.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 64.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 74
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 88.4%
Total Debt to Equity 88.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Return On Equity 5.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.9%
EBITDA Margin 14.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Operating Margin 7.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Effective Tax Rate 43%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

KEYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KEYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3878 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Keysight Technologies Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Keysight Technologies Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KEYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KEYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Keysight Technologies Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Keysight Technologies Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KEYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KEYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Keysight Technologies Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Keysight Technologies Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KEYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KEYS are equal to 43.3%.

Life of production assets of 9.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Keysight Technologies Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KEYS is equal to 12.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2433 million for Keysight Technologies Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 187.951 million for Keysight Technologies Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Keysight Technologies Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $15.8 billion.

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