Intrinsic value of Keysight Technologies - KEYS

Previous Close

$42.85

  Intrinsic Value

$34.33

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-20%

  Value-price divergence*

-30%

Previous close

$42.85

 
Intrinsic value

$34.33

 
Up/down potential

-20%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-30%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KEYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.17
  3.00
  3.20
  3.38
  3.54
  3.69
  3.82
  3.94
  4.04
  4.14
  4.23
  4.30
  4.37
  4.44
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  2,918
  3,006
  3,102
  3,207
  3,320
  3,443
  3,574
  3,715
  3,865
  4,025
  4,195
  4,375
  4,567
  4,769
  4,984
  5,210
  5,449
  5,701
  5,967
  6,248
  6,543
  6,855
  7,182
  7,527
  7,890
  8,272
  8,674
  9,096
  9,541
  10,008
  10,499
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,549
  2,629
  2,715
  2,809
  2,910
  3,018
  3,134
  3,257
  3,389
  3,529
  3,604
  3,762
  3,929
  4,105
  4,292
  4,489
  4,697
  4,916
  5,147
  5,390
  5,647
  5,917
  6,201
  6,500
  6,814
  7,145
  7,493
  7,859
  8,244
  8,648
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,512
  2,549
  2,629
  2,715
  2,809
  2,910
  3,018
  3,134
  3,257
  3,389
  3,529
  3,604
  3,762
  3,929
  4,105
  4,292
  4,489
  4,697
  4,916
  5,147
  5,390
  5,647
  5,917
  6,201
  6,500
  6,814
  7,145
  7,493
  7,859
  8,244
  8,648
Operating income, $m
  406
  456
  473
  491
  511
  533
  556
  581
  607
  636
  666
  771
  805
  840
  878
  918
  960
  1,005
  1,052
  1,101
  1,153
  1,208
  1,266
  1,326
  1,390
  1,458
  1,529
  1,603
  1,681
  1,764
  1,850
EBITDA, $m
  540
  585
  604
  625
  647
  671
  696
  724
  753
  784
  817
  852
  890
  929
  971
  1,015
  1,061
  1,110
  1,162
  1,217
  1,274
  1,335
  1,399
  1,466
  1,537
  1,611
  1,689
  1,772
  1,858
  1,949
  2,045
Interest expense (income), $m
  44
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  102
  108
  116
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  188
  200
  212
  224
  237
  251
  266
Earnings before tax, $m
  366
  412
  426
  442
  459
  477
  496
  517
  539
  562
  587
  687
  715
  745
  776
  810
  845
  882
  921
  962
  1,005
  1,051
  1,099
  1,149
  1,202
  1,258
  1,317
  1,379
  1,444
  1,512
  1,584
Tax expense, $m
  31
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  152
  159
  186
  193
  201
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  271
  284
  297
  310
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  428
Net income, $m
  335
  301
  311
  323
  335
  348
  362
  377
  393
  410
  429
  502
  522
  544
  567
  591
  617
  644
  672
  702
  734
  767
  802
  839
  878
  918
  961
  1,007
  1,054
  1,104
  1,156

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  783
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,796
  3,105
  3,204
  3,313
  3,430
  3,556
  3,692
  3,838
  3,993
  4,158
  4,334
  4,520
  4,718
  4,927
  5,148
  5,382
  5,629
  5,890
  6,165
  6,454
  6,760
  7,081
  7,420
  7,776
  8,151
  8,546
  8,961
  9,397
  9,856
  10,338
  10,846
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,013
  3,105
  3,204
  3,313
  3,430
  3,556
  3,692
  3,838
  3,993
  4,158
  4,334
  4,520
  4,718
  4,927
  5,148
  5,382
  5,629
  5,890
  6,165
  6,454
  6,760
  7,081
  7,420
  7,776
  8,151
  8,546
  8,961
  9,397
  9,856
  10,338
  10,846
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
Average production assets, $m
  486
  502
  518
  535
  554
  575
  597
  620
  645
  672
  701
  731
  763
  796
  832
  870
  910
  952
  997
  1,043
  1,093
  1,145
  1,199
  1,257
  1,318
  1,381
  1,449
  1,519
  1,593
  1,671
  1,753
Working capital, $m
  1,210
  439
  453
  468
  485
  503
  522
  542
  564
  588
  612
  639
  667
  696
  728
  761
  796
  832
  871
  912
  955
  1,001
  1,049
  1,099
  1,152
  1,208
  1,266
  1,328
  1,393
  1,461
  1,533
Total debt, $m
  1,093
  1,164
  1,239
  1,321
  1,410
  1,506
  1,609
  1,719
  1,836
  1,962
  2,095
  2,236
  2,386
  2,545
  2,712
  2,890
  3,077
  3,274
  3,483
  3,702
  3,934
  4,177
  4,434
  4,704
  4,988
  5,288
  5,602
  5,933
  6,281
  6,647
  7,031
Total liabilities, $m
  2,283
  2,354
  2,429
  2,511
  2,600
  2,696
  2,799
  2,909
  3,026
  3,152
  3,285
  3,426
  3,576
  3,735
  3,902
  4,080
  4,267
  4,464
  4,673
  4,892
  5,124
  5,367
  5,624
  5,894
  6,178
  6,478
  6,792
  7,123
  7,471
  7,837
  8,221
Total equity, $m
  1,513
  751
  775
  802
  830
  861
  894
  929
  966
  1,006
  1,049
  1,094
  1,142
  1,192
  1,246
  1,302
  1,362
  1,425
  1,492
  1,562
  1,636
  1,714
  1,796
  1,882
  1,973
  2,068
  2,168
  2,274
  2,385
  2,502
  2,625
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,796
  3,105
  3,204
  3,313
  3,430
  3,557
  3,693
  3,838
  3,992
  4,158
  4,334
  4,520
  4,718
  4,927
  5,148
  5,382
  5,629
  5,889
  6,165
  6,454
  6,760
  7,081
  7,420
  7,776
  8,151
  8,546
  8,960
  9,397
  9,856
  10,339
  10,846
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.722
  1.550
  1.600
  1.650
  1.700
  1.750
  1.800
  1.850
  1.900
  1.950
  2.000
  2.040
  2.090
  2.130
  2.180
  2.220
  2.260
  2.300
  2.330
  2.370
  2.400
  2.440
  2.470
  2.500
  2.530
  2.560
  2.580
  2.610
  2.630
  2.660
  2.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  335
  301
  311
  323
  335
  348
  362
  377
  393
  410
  429
  502
  522
  544
  567
  591
  617
  644
  672
  702
  734
  767
  802
  839
  878
  918
  961
  1,007
  1,054
  1,104
  1,156
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  134
  129
  131
  133
  135
  137
  140
  143
  145
  148
  151
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
Funds from operations, $m
  308
  430
  442
  456
  470
  485
  502
  520
  539
  559
  580
  583
  607
  632
  659
  688
  718
  749
  783
  818
  855
  894
  935
  979
  1,024
  1,072
  1,122
  1,175
  1,231
  1,290
  1,351
Change in working capital, $m
  -108
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
Cash from operations, $m
  416
  418
  428
  440
  453
  468
  483
  499
  517
  535
  555
  557
  579
  603
  628
  655
  683
  713
  744
  777
  812
  849
  887
  928
  971
  1,016
  1,064
  1,114
  1,166
  1,222
  1,280
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
New CAPEX, $m
  -91
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -90
  -70
  -72
  -76
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -268
Free cash flow, $m
  326
  348
  357
  365
  375
  386
  397
  409
  423
  437
  452
  449
  466
  484
  504
  524
  546
  569
  594
  619
  647
  675
  705
  737
  771
  806
  843
  882
  923
  966
  1,012
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  71
  75
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  198
  208
  220
  231
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  315
  331
  348
  366
  384
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -25
  71
  75
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  198
  208
  220
  231
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  315
  331
  348
  366
  384
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  300
  418
  432
  447
  464
  481
  500
  520
  540
  562
  585
  590
  616
  643
  671
  702
  733
  767
  802
  839
  878
  919
  962
  1,007
  1,055
  1,105
  1,158
  1,213
  1,271
  1,332
  1,396
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -211
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  783
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,180
  408
  421
  436
  451
  467
  484
  503
  522
  543
  545
  568
  592
  618
  645
  674
  704
  736
  769
  804
  841
  880
  921
  964
  1,010
  1,057
  1,107
  1,160
  1,215
  1,274
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,131
  373
  367
  359
  349
  339
  327
  314
  300
  285
  259
  242
  225
  207
  189
  171
  153
  135
  118
  102
  87
  73
  60
  49
  39
  31
  24
  18
  13
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Keysight Technologies, Inc. is a measurement company engaged in providing electronic design and test solutions to communications and electronics industries. The Company provides electronic design and test instruments and systems and related software, software design tools and related services that are used in the design, development, manufacture, installation, deployment and operation of electronics equipment. The Company operates through three segments: Communications Solutions Group (CSG), Electronic Industrial Solutions Group (EISG) and Services Solutions Group (SSG). The CSG and EISG segments provide electronic design and test software, instruments, and systems used in the simulation, design, validation, manufacturing, installation and optimization of electronic equipment. The SSG segment provides integrated service solutions, including repair and calibration services, professional services and remanufactured equipment.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Keysight Technologies (KEYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.7
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 72.2%
Total Debt to Equity 72.2%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Return On Total Capital 13.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Return On Equity 23.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.6%
EBITDA Margin 18.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Operating Margin 13.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Net Profit Margin 11.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Effective Tax Rate 8.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

KEYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KEYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2918 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Keysight Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Keysight Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KEYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KEYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Keysight Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Keysight Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KEYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KEYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for Keysight Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Keysight Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KEYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KEYS are equal to 16.7%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Keysight Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KEYS is equal to 14.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1513 million for Keysight Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 185.585 million for Keysight Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Keysight Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Keysight Technologies Sees Relative Strength Rating Climb To 73   [Sep-28-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Keysight reports 3Q loss   [Aug-31-17 08:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Keysight Technologies Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-30-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Positive on Cisco, Corning   [Jun-19-17 04:31PM  Barrons.com]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 14th   [Jun-14-17 10:23AM  Zacks]
▶ After-hours buzz: PLAY, KEYS & more   [Jun-06-17 05:14PM  CNBC]
▶ Keysight tops Street 2Q forecasts   [04:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Keysight Rated A Buy On 5G Wireless Ramp-Up, Network Testing   [May-30-17 04:40PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ixia Announces Collaboration with the CORD Project   [Apr-19-17 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Keysight tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Feb-16-17 04:32PM  AP]
Financial statements of KEYS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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