Intrinsic value of Kforce - KFRC

Previous Close

$31.17

  Intrinsic Value

$34.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+10%

Previous close

$31.17

 
Intrinsic value

$34.34

 
Up/down potential

+10%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of KFRC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
Revenue, $m
  1,431
  1,508
  1,588
  1,672
  1,760
  1,852
  1,949
  2,050
  2,156
  2,267
  2,384
  2,506
  2,634
  2,769
  2,910
  3,058
  3,213
  3,375
  3,546
  3,725
  3,914
  4,111
  4,318
  4,536
  4,764
  5,003
  5,255
  5,519
  5,796
  6,087
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,070
  1,127
  1,187
  1,250
  1,315
  1,384
  1,456
  1,531
  1,610
  1,693
  1,775
  1,866
  1,961
  2,061
  2,166
  2,276
  2,391
  2,513
  2,640
  2,773
  2,913
  3,060
  3,214
  3,376
  3,546
  3,724
  3,912
  4,108
  4,314
  4,531
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  285
  291
  298
  304
  311
  318
  325
  332
  339
  347
  354
  362
  370
  378
  387
  395
  404
  413
  422
  431
  441
  450
  460
  470
  481
  491
  502
  513
  524
  536
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,355
  1,418
  1,485
  1,554
  1,626
  1,702
  1,781
  1,863
  1,949
  2,040
  2,129
  2,228
  2,331
  2,439
  2,553
  2,671
  2,795
  2,926
  3,062
  3,204
  3,354
  3,510
  3,674
  3,846
  4,027
  4,215
  4,414
  4,621
  4,838
  5,067
Operating income, $m
  76
  89
  103
  118
  134
  151
  168
  187
  207
  228
  255
  278
  303
  329
  357
  386
  417
  450
  485
  521
  560
  601
  644
  689
  737
  788
  841
  898
  957
  1,020
EBITDA, $m
  87
  101
  115
  131
  147
  164
  182
  201
  222
  243
  266
  290
  315
  342
  370
  400
  432
  466
  501
  538
  578
  619
  663
  710
  759
  811
  865
  923
  984
  1,048
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
Earnings before tax, $m
  69
  82
  95
  109
  124
  140
  157
  175
  194
  213
  239
  262
  285
  310
  337
  365
  394
  425
  458
  493
  530
  569
  610
  653
  699
  747
  798
  852
  909
  969
Tax expense, $m
  19
  22
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  52
  58
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  106
  115
  124
  133
  143
  154
  165
  176
  189
  202
  216
  230
  246
  262
Net income, $m
  51
  60
  70
  80
  91
  102
  115
  128
  141
  156
  175
  191
  208
  226
  246
  266
  288
  310
  334
  360
  387
  415
  445
  477
  510
  546
  583
  622
  664
  708

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  405
  427
  449
  473
  498
  524
  552
  580
  610
  642
  675
  709
  745
  783
  823
  865
  909
  955
  1,003
  1,054
  1,107
  1,163
  1,222
  1,283
  1,348
  1,416
  1,487
  1,562
  1,640
  1,722
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  405
  427
  449
  473
  498
  524
  552
  580
  610
  642
  675
  709
  745
  783
  823
  865
  909
  955
  1,003
  1,054
  1,107
  1,163
  1,222
  1,283
  1,348
  1,416
  1,487
  1,562
  1,640
  1,722
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.533
  3.532
  3.537
  3.535
  3.534
  3.534
  3.531
  3.534
  3.534
  3.531
  3.532
  3.535
  3.536
  3.536
  3.536
  3.535
  3.535
  3.534
  3.535
  3.534
  3.536
  3.535
  3.534
  3.535
  3.534
  3.533
  3.534
  3.533
  3.534
  3.535
Average production assets, $m
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  100
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  201
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
Working capital, $m
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  298
  313
  329
  346
  364
  382
  402
  422
  443
  466
  489
  514
  540
  567
  595
  625
  657
  690
  724
Total debt, $m
  133
  147
  162
  177
  193
  210
  228
  247
  266
  287
  308
  331
  354
  379
  405
  432
  461
  491
  522
  555
  590
  626
  665
  705
  747
  791
  837
  886
  937
  990
Total liabilities, $m
  264
  278
  293
  308
  324
  341
  359
  378
  397
  418
  439
  462
  485
  510
  536
  563
  592
  622
  653
  686
  721
  757
  795
  836
  878
  922
  968
  1,017
  1,068
  1,121
Total equity, $m
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  235
  247
  260
  273
  287
  302
  317
  333
  350
  368
  386
  406
  426
  448
  470
  494
  519
  545
  572
  601
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  405
  427
  450
  473
  498
  524
  551
  580
  610
  642
  674
  709
  745
  783
  823
  865
  909
  955
  1,003
  1,054
  1,107
  1,163
  1,221
  1,284
  1,348
  1,416
  1,487
  1,562
  1,640
  1,722
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.940
  0.990
  1.030
  1.070
  1.110
  1.150
  1.190
  1.220
  1.250
  1.280
  1.310
  1.340
  1.360
  1.390
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.540
  1.560
  1.570
  1.590
  1.600
  1.610
  1.630
  1.640
  1.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  51
  60
  70
  80
  91
  102
  115
  128
  141
  156
  175
  191
  208
  226
  246
  266
  288
  310
  334
  360
  387
  415
  445
  477
  510
  546
  583
  622
  664
  708
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Funds from operations, $m
  62
  72
  82
  92
  104
  116
  128
  142
  156
  171
  186
  203
  220
  239
  259
  280
  302
  326
  351
  377
  405
  434
  465
  498
  532
  569
  607
  648
  690
  736
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
Cash from operations, $m
  53
  63
  72
  82
  93
  105
  117
  130
  144
  158
  172
  188
  205
  223
  242
  263
  284
  306
  330
  356
  382
  410
  440
  472
  505
  540
  577
  616
  657
  701
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
Free cash flow, $m
  43
  52
  61
  71
  81
  92
  104
  116
  129
  143
  156
  171
  187
  205
  223
  242
  262
  284
  307
  331
  356
  383
  411
  441
  473
  506
  542
  579
  619
  660
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  57
  66
  76
  87
  98
  109
  122
  135
  148
  163
  177
  194
  211
  229
  249
  269
  291
  314
  338
  364
  391
  419
  449
  481
  515
  551
  588
  628
  670
  714
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  50
  59
  68
  78
  89
  100
  112
  125
  138
  152
  166
  182
  198
  216
  235
  255
  276
  298
  321
  346
  372
  400
  429
  460
  492
  527
  563
  602
  642
  685
Discount rate, %
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.51
  9.99
  10.49
  11.01
  11.57
  12.14
  12.75
  13.39
  14.06
  14.76
  15.50
  16.27
  17.09
  17.94
  18.84
  19.78
  20.77
  21.81
  22.90
  24.04
  25.25
  26.51
  27.83
  29.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  46
  51
  54
  57
  59
  60
  59
  58
  56
  53
  50
  46
  42
  37
  33
  28
  24
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Kforce Inc. (Kforce) is engaged in providing professional and technical specialty staffing services and solutions. The Company operates through three segments, which include Technology (Tech), Finance and Accounting (FA) and Government Solutions (GS). The Company's Tech segment includes the operations of its subsidiary Kforce Global Solutions, Inc. The FA segment is engaged in providing both temporary staffing and permanent placement services to its clients in areas, such as general accounting, business analysis and others. The GS segment is engaged in providing services and solutions to the Federal Government as both a prime contractor and a subcontractor in the fields of information technology, and finance and accounting. Kforce operates through field offices located throughout the United States and one office in Manila, the Philippines. The Company offers various staffing services that consist of temporary staffing services (Flex) and permanent placement services (Direct Hire).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kforce (KFRC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 6.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 30.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 95.1%
Total Debt to Equity 95.1%
Interest Coverage 29
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Return On Total Capital 14.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Return On Equity 25.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.2%
Asset Turnover 3.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
EBITDA Margin 5.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Operating Margin 4.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 41.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.3%
Payout Ratio 36.4%

KFRC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KFRC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1357.94 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kforce. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Kforce. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KFRC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.1%, whose default value for KFRC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kforce, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kforce.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KFRC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $279 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KFRC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Kforce.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kforce. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KFRC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KFRC are equal to 4.9%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kforce operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KFRC is equal to 11.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $134.277 million for Kforce - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.125 million for Kforce is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kforce at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is Kforce Incs (NASDAQ:KFRC) CEO Incentives Align With Yours?   [Oct-31-18 03:03PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Kforce: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It Time to Invest in Staffing Stocks?   [Aug-27-18 06:47PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Is Kforce Inc (NASDAQ:KFRC) A Strong Dividend Stock?   [Aug-16-18 01:10PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Kye Mitchell, 2018 BusinessWoman of the Year honoree   [Aug-13-18 09:48AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 5 Stocks to Buy on a Historic Job Growth Streak   [Aug-06-18 09:59AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Kforce: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Kforce Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Kforce crowdsources a new vision, mission from its employees   [Jul-19-18 07:32AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ How 'culture and great people' are the secrets to Kforce's Orlando success   [Jun-30-18 11:02AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Kforce names new CEO for key unit   [Jun-14-18 12:11PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Jobs Report Paints a Pretty Picture for These Top 5 Stocks   [Jun-04-18 01:47PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Kforce: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 07:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kforce beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-06-18 07:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kforce Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:45PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Heres how the new tax law will impact a leading Tampa staffing company   [Dec-29-17 12:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Kforce, Inc. : December 19, 2017   [Dec-19-17 01:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Kforce, Inc. : November 20, 2017   [Nov-20-17 12:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Kforce meets 3Q profit forecasts   [Oct-31-17 04:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kforce Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [09:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Kforce Commits Support for Hurricane Recovery   [Sep-15-17 12:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 23rd   [Aug-23-17 10:11AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Kforce, Inc. : August 21, 2017   [Aug-21-17 04:29PM  Capital Cube]

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