Intrinsic value of Kforce - KFRC

Previous Close

$25.55

  Intrinsic Value

$22.11

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  Rating & Target

hold

-13%

Previous close

$25.55

 
Intrinsic value

$22.11

 
Up/down potential

-13%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KFRC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.08
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,320
  1,346
  1,377
  1,413
  1,453
  1,497
  1,545
  1,597
  1,654
  1,716
  1,782
  1,852
  1,927
  2,007
  2,092
  2,183
  2,278
  2,379
  2,487
  2,600
  2,719
  2,845
  2,978
  3,118
  3,266
  3,421
  3,585
  3,757
  3,939
  4,129
  4,330
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,271
  1,300
  1,333
  1,371
  1,412
  1,458
  1,507
  1,561
  1,618
  1,680
  1,742
  1,813
  1,888
  1,968
  2,053
  2,143
  2,238
  2,339
  2,445
  2,557
  2,676
  2,801
  2,933
  3,072
  3,218
  3,372
  3,534
  3,704
  3,884
  4,072
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,261
  1,271
  1,300
  1,333
  1,371
  1,412
  1,458
  1,507
  1,561
  1,618
  1,680
  1,742
  1,813
  1,888
  1,968
  2,053
  2,143
  2,238
  2,339
  2,445
  2,557
  2,676
  2,801
  2,933
  3,072
  3,218
  3,372
  3,534
  3,704
  3,884
  4,072
Operating income, $m
  59
  75
  77
  79
  82
  84
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  110
  115
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
  213
  224
  234
  246
  258
EBITDA, $m
  68
  83
  85
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  268
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Earnings before tax, $m
  56
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
Tax expense, $m
  23
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
Net income, $m
  33
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  365
  371
  380
  390
  401
  413
  426
  441
  456
  473
  491
  511
  532
  554
  577
  602
  628
  656
  686
  717
  750
  785
  821
  860
  901
  944
  989
  1,036
  1,086
  1,139
  1,194
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  364
  371
  380
  390
  401
  413
  426
  441
  456
  473
  491
  511
  532
  554
  577
  602
  628
  656
  686
  717
  750
  785
  821
  860
  901
  944
  989
  1,036
  1,086
  1,139
  1,194
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.626
  3.628
  3.624
  3.623
  3.623
  3.625
  3.627
  3.621
  3.627
  3.628
  3.629
  3.624
  3.622
  3.623
  3.626
  3.626
  3.627
  3.627
  3.625
  3.626
  3.625
  3.624
  3.627
  3.626
  3.625
  3.624
  3.625
  3.626
  3.627
  3.625
  3.626
Average production assets, $m
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
Working capital, $m
  136
  137
  140
  144
  148
  153
  158
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  223
  232
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  383
  402
  421
  442
Total debt, $m
  116
  121
  127
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  178
  189
  201
  214
  228
  243
  258
  275
  293
  311
  331
  352
  374
  397
  422
  447
  475
  503
  533
  565
  599
  634
  671
Total liabilities, $m
  244
  248
  254
  260
  268
  276
  285
  294
  305
  316
  328
  341
  355
  370
  385
  402
  420
  438
  458
  479
  501
  524
  549
  574
  602
  630
  660
  692
  726
  761
  798
Total equity, $m
  122
  123
  126
  129
  133
  137
  141
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  176
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  313
  328
  344
  361
  378
  396
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  366
  371
  380
  389
  401
  413
  426
  440
  456
  473
  491
  511
  531
  554
  577
  602
  629
  656
  686
  717
  750
  785
  822
  860
  901
  943
  988
  1,036
  1,087
  1,139
  1,194
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.951
  0.980
  1.010
  1.030
  1.060
  1.090
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.260
  1.290
  1.320
  1.350
  1.380
  1.400
  1.430
  1.450
  1.480
  1.500
  1.520
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.610
  1.630
  1.640
  1.660
  1.680
  1.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Funds from operations, $m
  25
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
Cash from operations, $m
  39
  57
  58
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  141
  147
  154
  161
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -14
Free cash flow, $m
  27
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  135
  142
  148
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  31
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -15
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  18
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  57
  57
  58
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
Discount rate, %
 
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  54
  51
  48
  46
  43
  41
  38
  35
  32
  30
  26
  24
  21
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Kforce Inc. (Kforce) is engaged in providing professional and technical specialty staffing services and solutions. The Company operates through three segments, which include Technology (Tech), Finance and Accounting (FA) and Government Solutions (GS). The Company's Tech segment includes the operations of its subsidiary Kforce Global Solutions, Inc. The FA segment is engaged in providing both temporary staffing and permanent placement services to its clients in areas, such as general accounting, business analysis and others. The GS segment is engaged in providing services and solutions to the Federal Government as both a prime contractor and a subcontractor in the fields of information technology, and finance and accounting. Kforce operates through field offices located throughout the United States and one office in Manila, the Philippines. The Company offers various staffing services that consist of temporary staffing services (Flex) and permanent placement services (Direct Hire).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kforce (KFRC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.7
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 5.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 95.1%
Total Debt to Equity 95.1%
Interest Coverage 29
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Return On Total Capital 14.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Return On Equity 25.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.2%
Asset Turnover 3.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
EBITDA Margin 5.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Operating Margin 4.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 41.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.3%
Payout Ratio 36.4%

KFRC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KFRC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1320 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kforce. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Kforce. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KFRC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for KFRC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kforce, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kforce.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KFRC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KFRC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Kforce.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kforce. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KFRC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KFRC are equal to 1.8%.

Life of production assets of 7.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kforce operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KFRC is equal to 10.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $122 million for Kforce - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.728 million for Kforce is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kforce at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Kforce, Inc. : November 20, 2017   [Nov-20-17 12:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Kforce meets 3Q profit forecasts   [Oct-31-17 04:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kforce Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [09:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Kforce Commits Support for Hurricane Recovery   [Sep-15-17 12:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 23rd   [Aug-23-17 10:11AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Kforce, Inc. : August 21, 2017   [Aug-21-17 04:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Kforce misses Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-02-17 12:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Kforce, Inc. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:KFRC) : July 4, 2017   [Jul-04-17 04:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Dividend Stocks for Recent College Graduates   [Jun-20-17 10:41AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks for Conservative Investors   [Jun-06-17 09:14AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Kforce Completes New $300 Million Revolving Credit Facility   [May-25-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Kforce, Inc. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 12:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks You Haven't Thought Of   [May-17-17 04:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Kforce, Inc. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 04:43PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Kforce meets 1Q profit forecasts   [May-02-17 07:05PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kforce exec quits as golden parachute loses luster   [Apr-07-17 08:18AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for March 23rd   [Mar-23-17 07:14AM  Zacks]
▶ 5 Top Stocks to Buy as Bull Market Turns Eight   [Mar-09-17 09:23AM  Zacks]
▶ Is Kforce (KFRC) a Good Value Pick?   [Mar-01-17 09:55AM  Zacks]
▶ Meet the capital markets veteran who joined the Kforce board   [Jan-13-17 08:00AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Is Kforce Inc. (KFRC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 08:52AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of KFRC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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