Intrinsic value of KLA-Tencor Corporation - KLAC

Previous Close

$131.96

  Intrinsic Value

$256.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+94%

Previous close

$131.96

 
Intrinsic value

$256.59

 
Up/down potential

+94%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of KLAC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 21.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.80
  13.82
  12.94
  12.14
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
Revenue, $m
  4,634
  5,275
  5,957
  6,681
  7,445
  8,248
  9,089
  9,970
  10,889
  11,847
  12,844
  13,881
  14,960
  16,080
  17,245
  18,455
  19,713
  21,021
  22,381
  23,796
  25,270
  26,804
  28,403
  30,070
  31,808
  33,623
  35,517
  37,495
  39,562
  41,722
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,345
  2,666
  3,007
  3,368
  3,750
  4,152
  4,573
  5,013
  5,472
  5,951
  6,421
  6,940
  7,479
  8,039
  8,621
  9,226
  9,855
  10,509
  11,189
  11,896
  12,633
  13,400
  14,199
  15,032
  15,901
  16,808
  17,755
  18,744
  19,778
  20,858
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  439
  449
  459
  469
  479
  490
  501
  512
  523
  535
  546
  558
  571
  583
  596
  609
  622
  636
  650
  664
  679
  694
  709
  725
  741
  757
  774
  791
  808
  826
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,784
  3,115
  3,466
  3,837
  4,229
  4,642
  5,074
  5,525
  5,995
  6,486
  6,967
  7,498
  8,050
  8,622
  9,217
  9,835
  10,477
  11,145
  11,839
  12,560
  13,312
  14,094
  14,908
  15,757
  16,642
  17,565
  18,529
  19,535
  20,586
  21,684
Operating income, $m
  1,850
  2,160
  2,492
  2,843
  3,215
  3,606
  4,016
  4,445
  4,894
  5,361
  5,877
  6,384
  6,910
  7,458
  8,028
  8,620
  9,236
  9,876
  10,542
  11,236
  11,958
  12,710
  13,495
  14,312
  15,166
  16,057
  16,987
  17,960
  18,976
  20,039
EBITDA, $m
  1,930
  2,248
  2,587
  2,946
  3,326
  3,726
  4,146
  4,585
  5,044
  5,522
  6,020
  6,538
  7,077
  7,638
  8,220
  8,826
  9,455
  10,110
  10,792
  11,501
  12,239
  13,009
  13,811
  14,648
  15,520
  16,432
  17,383
  18,377
  19,417
  20,504
Interest expense (income), $m
  120
  121
  126
  156
  189
  223
  260
  298
  338
  380
  424
  469
  517
  566
  618
  671
  727
  784
  844
  906
  971
  1,039
  1,109
  1,182
  1,258
  1,338
  1,420
  1,507
  1,597
  1,691
  1,790
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,729
  2,034
  2,335
  2,655
  2,992
  3,346
  3,718
  4,108
  4,514
  4,938
  5,408
  5,867
  6,344
  6,841
  7,357
  7,893
  8,451
  9,032
  9,636
  10,264
  10,919
  11,601
  12,313
  13,054
  13,828
  14,636
  15,481
  16,363
  17,285
  18,249
Tax expense, $m
  467
  549
  631
  717
  808
  904
  1,004
  1,109
  1,219
  1,333
  1,460
  1,584
  1,713
  1,847
  1,986
  2,131
  2,282
  2,439
  2,602
  2,771
  2,948
  3,132
  3,324
  3,525
  3,734
  3,952
  4,180
  4,418
  4,667
  4,927
Net income, $m
  1,262
  1,485
  1,705
  1,938
  2,184
  2,443
  2,714
  2,998
  3,295
  3,604
  3,947
  4,283
  4,631
  4,994
  5,370
  5,762
  6,170
  6,593
  7,034
  7,493
  7,971
  8,469
  8,988
  9,530
  10,095
  10,685
  11,301
  11,945
  12,618
  13,322

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,544
  5,172
  5,841
  6,550
  7,299
  8,086
  8,911
  9,775
  10,676
  11,615
  12,592
  13,609
  14,666
  15,765
  16,907
  18,093
  19,326
  20,609
  21,942
  23,330
  24,774
  26,278
  27,846
  29,480
  31,185
  32,963
  34,820
  36,760
  38,786
  40,904
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,544
  5,172
  5,841
  6,550
  7,299
  8,086
  8,911
  9,775
  10,676
  11,615
  12,592
  13,609
  14,666
  15,765
  16,907
  18,093
  19,326
  20,609
  21,942
  23,330
  24,774
  26,278
  27,846
  29,480
  31,185
  32,963
  34,820
  36,760
  38,786
  40,904
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
Average production assets, $m
  542
  617
  697
  782
  871
  965
  1,063
  1,166
  1,274
  1,386
  1,503
  1,624
  1,750
  1,881
  2,018
  2,159
  2,306
  2,459
  2,619
  2,784
  2,957
  3,136
  3,323
  3,518
  3,722
  3,934
  4,155
  4,387
  4,629
  4,882
Working capital, $m
  519
  591
  667
  748
  834
  924
  1,018
  1,117
  1,220
  1,327
  1,439
  1,555
  1,675
  1,801
  1,931
  2,067
  2,208
  2,354
  2,507
  2,665
  2,830
  3,002
  3,181
  3,368
  3,563
  3,766
  3,978
  4,199
  4,431
  4,673
Total debt, $m
  2,328
  2,893
  3,495
  4,133
  4,807
  5,516
  6,259
  7,036
  7,847
  8,692
  9,572
  10,487
  11,438
  12,427
  13,455
  14,522
  15,632
  16,786
  17,986
  19,235
  20,535
  21,889
  23,300
  24,771
  26,305
  27,905
  29,577
  31,322
  33,146
  35,053
Total liabilities, $m
  4,089
  4,654
  5,257
  5,895
  6,569
  7,277
  8,020
  8,797
  9,608
  10,453
  11,333
  12,248
  13,200
  14,188
  15,216
  16,284
  17,394
  18,548
  19,748
  20,997
  22,297
  23,651
  25,061
  26,532
  28,066
  29,667
  31,338
  33,084
  34,907
  36,814
Total equity, $m
  454
  517
  584
  655
  730
  809
  891
  977
  1,068
  1,161
  1,259
  1,361
  1,467
  1,576
  1,691
  1,809
  1,933
  2,061
  2,194
  2,333
  2,477
  2,628
  2,785
  2,948
  3,118
  3,296
  3,482
  3,676
  3,879
  4,090
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,543
  5,171
  5,841
  6,550
  7,299
  8,086
  8,911
  9,774
  10,676
  11,614
  12,592
  13,609
  14,667
  15,764
  16,907
  18,093
  19,327
  20,609
  21,942
  23,330
  24,774
  26,279
  27,846
  29,480
  31,184
  32,963
  34,820
  36,760
  38,786
  40,904
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.120
  5.590
  5.980
  6.310
  6.590
  6.820
  7.020
  7.200
  7.350
  7.480
  7.600
  7.710
  7.800
  7.880
  7.960
  8.030
  8.090
  8.150
  8.200
  8.240
  8.290
  8.330
  8.370
  8.400
  8.440
  8.470
  8.490
  8.520
  8.550
  8.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,262
  1,485
  1,705
  1,938
  2,184
  2,443
  2,714
  2,998
  3,295
  3,604
  3,947
  4,283
  4,631
  4,994
  5,370
  5,762
  6,170
  6,593
  7,034
  7,493
  7,971
  8,469
  8,988
  9,530
  10,095
  10,685
  11,301
  11,945
  12,618
  13,322
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  80
  87
  95
  103
  112
  121
  130
  140
  150
  161
  143
  155
  167
  179
  192
  206
  220
  234
  249
  265
  282
  299
  316
  335
  354
  375
  396
  418
  441
  465
Funds from operations, $m
  1,342
  1,573
  1,800
  2,041
  2,295
  2,563
  2,844
  3,138
  3,445
  3,765
  4,091
  4,437
  4,798
  5,173
  5,563
  5,968
  6,389
  6,827
  7,283
  7,758
  8,253
  8,768
  9,305
  9,865
  10,449
  11,059
  11,697
  12,362
  13,059
  13,787
Change in working capital, $m
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  126
  130
  136
  141
  146
  152
  159
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  203
  212
  222
  232
  242
Cash from operations, $m
  1,275
  1,501
  1,723
  1,960
  2,210
  2,473
  2,750
  3,040
  3,342
  3,658
  3,979
  4,321
  4,677
  5,047
  5,432
  5,832
  6,248
  6,681
  7,131
  7,600
  8,088
  8,596
  9,126
  9,678
  10,254
  10,856
  11,484
  12,141
  12,827
  13,545
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -45
  -52
  -59
  -66
  -74
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -111
  -121
  -132
  -143
  -155
  -167
  -179
  -192
  -206
  -220
  -234
  -249
  -265
  -282
  -299
  -316
  -335
  -354
  -375
  -396
  -418
  -441
New CAPEX, $m
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -172
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -231
  -242
  -253
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -116
  -127
  -139
  -151
  -163
  -177
  -191
  -204
  -219
  -233
  -249
  -264
  -281
  -298
  -315
  -334
  -353
  -373
  -393
  -415
  -437
  -462
  -486
  -511
  -538
  -566
  -597
  -627
  -660
  -694
Free cash flow, $m
  1,159
  1,374
  1,585
  1,809
  2,046
  2,296
  2,560
  2,835
  3,124
  3,424
  3,730
  4,057
  4,396
  4,750
  5,117
  5,499
  5,895
  6,308
  6,738
  7,185
  7,650
  8,135
  8,640
  9,167
  9,716
  10,289
  10,888
  11,514
  12,167
  12,851
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  90
  565
  602
  638
  674
  709
  743
  777
  811
  845
  880
  915
  951
  989
  1,028
  1,068
  1,110
  1,154
  1,200
  1,249
  1,300
  1,354
  1,411
  1,471
  1,534
  1,601
  1,671
  1,745
  1,824
  1,907
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  90
  565
  602
  638
  674
  709
  743
  777
  811
  845
  880
  915
  951
  989
  1,028
  1,068
  1,110
  1,154
  1,200
  1,249
  1,300
  1,354
  1,411
  1,471
  1,534
  1,601
  1,671
  1,745
  1,824
  1,907
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,250
  1,939
  2,187
  2,447
  2,720
  3,005
  3,302
  3,612
  3,934
  4,270
  4,610
  4,972
  5,348
  5,738
  6,144
  6,566
  7,005
  7,462
  7,938
  8,433
  8,950
  9,489
  10,051
  10,637
  11,250
  11,890
  12,559
  13,259
  13,991
  14,757
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -496
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -212
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,662
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2,416
  1,877
  2,120
  2,376
  2,645
  2,926
  3,220
  3,526
  3,844
  4,176
  4,512
  4,870
  5,242
  5,628
  6,030
  6,448
  6,882
  7,334
  7,805
  8,295
  8,806
  9,338
  9,894
  10,474
  11,080
  11,712
  12,374
  13,065
  13,789
  14,546
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2,316
  1,718
  1,845
  1,957
  2,050
  2,124
  2,175
  2,204
  2,208
  2,189
  2,143
  2,078
  1,993
  1,890
  1,770
  1,639
  1,497
  1,351
  1,202
  1,054
  911
  775
  648
  533
  431
  342
  266
  202
  151
  110
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLA-Tencor) is a supplier of process control and yield management solutions for the semiconductor and related nanoelectronics industries. The Company's products are also used in a number of other high technology industries, including the light emitting diode (LED) and data storage industries, as well as general materials research. Its products and services are used by bare wafer, integrated circuit (IC), lithography reticle (reticle or mask) and disk manufacturers around the world. The Company's inspection and metrology products and related offerings are categorized in various groups, including Chip Manufacturing, Wafer Manufacturing, Reticle Manufacturing, LED, Power Device and Compound Semiconductor Manufacturing, Data Storage Media/Head Manufacturing, Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS) Manufacturing, and General Purpose/Lab Applications. It also provides refurbished KLA-Tencor tools as service and support for its products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.4
Price to Sales 5.9
Price to Book 15.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 21.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 202.1%
Total Debt to Equity 221%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Return On Total Capital 23.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Return On Equity 91.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.9%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 63%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.4%
EBITDA Margin 38.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.8%
Operating Margin 36.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 33.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26%
Net Profit Margin 26.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Effective Tax Rate 21.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.2%
Payout Ratio 37.1%

KLAC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KLAC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4037 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by KLA-Tencor Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of KLA-Tencor Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KLAC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KLAC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of KLA-Tencor Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of KLA-Tencor Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KLAC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $430 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KLAC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for KLA-Tencor Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for KLA-Tencor Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KLAC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KLAC are equal to 11.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in KLA-Tencor Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KLAC is equal to 11.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1620.511 million for KLA-Tencor Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 163.685 million for KLA-Tencor Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of KLA-Tencor Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $21.6 billion.

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