Intrinsic value of Kulicke&Soffa Industries - KLIC

Previous Close

$27.01

  Intrinsic Value

$74.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+175%

Previous close

$27.01

 
Intrinsic value

$74.15

 
Up/down potential

+175%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of KLIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  29.00
  26.60
  24.44
  22.50
  20.75
  19.17
  17.75
  16.48
  15.33
  14.30
  13.37
  12.53
  11.78
  11.10
  10.49
  9.94
  9.45
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.63
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
Revenue, $m
  1,044
  1,321
  1,644
  2,014
  2,432
  2,898
  3,413
  3,975
  4,584
  5,240
  5,940
  6,685
  7,472
  8,301
  9,172
  10,084
  11,037
  12,030
  13,065
  14,142
  15,262
  16,426
  17,635
  18,892
  20,198
  21,556
  22,968
  24,437
  25,966
  27,558
Variable operating expenses, $m
  778
  982
  1,219
  1,491
  1,798
  2,140
  2,518
  2,931
  3,378
  3,859
  4,362
  4,908
  5,487
  6,096
  6,735
  7,405
  8,104
  8,834
  9,594
  10,384
  11,207
  12,061
  12,949
  13,872
  14,831
  15,829
  16,865
  17,944
  19,067
  20,236
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  109
  112
  114
  117
  119
  122
  125
  127
  130
  133
  136
  139
  142
  145
  148
  152
  155
  158
  162
  165
  169
  173
  177
  180
  184
  188
  193
  197
  201
  206
Total operating expenses, $m
  887
  1,094
  1,333
  1,608
  1,917
  2,262
  2,643
  3,058
  3,508
  3,992
  4,498
  5,047
  5,629
  6,241
  6,883
  7,557
  8,259
  8,992
  9,756
  10,549
  11,376
  12,234
  13,126
  14,052
  15,015
  16,017
  17,058
  18,141
  19,268
  20,442
Operating income, $m
  156
  227
  311
  407
  515
  636
  770
  917
  1,076
  1,247
  1,442
  1,637
  1,843
  2,061
  2,289
  2,528
  2,778
  3,038
  3,310
  3,592
  3,886
  4,192
  4,509
  4,839
  5,183
  5,539
  5,910
  6,296
  6,698
  7,117
EBITDA, $m
  192
  269
  360
  464
  582
  714
  860
  1,019
  1,192
  1,379
  1,578
  1,790
  2,014
  2,250
  2,498
  2,758
  3,029
  3,313
  3,608
  3,915
  4,234
  4,566
  4,911
  5,270
  5,643
  6,031
  6,434
  6,854
  7,290
  7,745
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  6
  12
  18
  26
  35
  44
  55
  67
  79
  93
  108
  123
  139
  157
  175
  194
  213
  234
  256
  278
  301
  325
  351
  377
  404
  432
  461
  492
  524
Earnings before tax, $m
  155
  221
  299
  388
  489
  601
  726
  862
  1,009
  1,168
  1,349
  1,530
  1,720
  1,921
  2,132
  2,353
  2,584
  2,825
  3,076
  3,337
  3,608
  3,891
  4,184
  4,489
  4,806
  5,136
  5,478
  5,835
  6,207
  6,593
Tax expense, $m
  42
  60
  81
  105
  132
  162
  196
  233
  272
  315
  364
  413
  464
  519
  576
  635
  698
  763
  830
  901
  974
  1,050
  1,130
  1,212
  1,298
  1,387
  1,479
  1,575
  1,676
  1,780
Net income, $m
  113
  162
  218
  283
  357
  439
  530
  629
  737
  853
  985
  1,117
  1,256
  1,402
  1,556
  1,718
  1,886
  2,062
  2,245
  2,436
  2,634
  2,840
  3,054
  3,277
  3,508
  3,749
  3,999
  4,260
  4,531
  4,813

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  984
  1,245
  1,550
  1,898
  2,292
  2,731
  3,216
  3,746
  4,321
  4,939
  5,599
  6,300
  7,042
  7,824
  8,645
  9,504
  10,402
  11,339
  12,314
  13,329
  14,384
  15,481
  16,621
  17,806
  19,037
  20,317
  21,648
  23,032
  24,473
  25,974
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  984
  1,245
  1,550
  1,898
  2,292
  2,731
  3,216
  3,746
  4,321
  4,939
  5,599
  6,300
  7,042
  7,824
  8,645
  9,504
  10,402
  11,339
  12,314
  13,329
  14,384
  15,481
  16,621
  17,806
  19,037
  20,317
  21,648
  23,032
  24,473
  25,974
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
  1.061
Average production assets, $m
  238
  301
  375
  459
  554
  661
  778
  906
  1,045
  1,195
  1,354
  1,524
  1,704
  1,893
  2,091
  2,299
  2,516
  2,743
  2,979
  3,224
  3,480
  3,745
  4,021
  4,307
  4,605
  4,915
  5,237
  5,572
  5,920
  6,283
Working capital, $m
  91
  115
  143
  175
  212
  252
  297
  346
  399
  456
  517
  582
  650
  722
  798
  877
  960
  1,047
  1,137
  1,230
  1,328
  1,429
  1,534
  1,644
  1,757
  1,875
  1,998
  2,126
  2,259
  2,398
Total debt, $m
  91
  180
  283
  401
  535
  684
  848
  1,028
  1,223
  1,432
  1,656
  1,894
  2,145
  2,410
  2,689
  2,980
  3,284
  3,602
  3,932
  4,277
  4,634
  5,006
  5,393
  5,794
  6,212
  6,645
  7,097
  7,566
  8,054
  8,563
Total liabilities, $m
  333
  422
  525
  643
  777
  926
  1,090
  1,270
  1,465
  1,674
  1,898
  2,136
  2,387
  2,652
  2,931
  3,222
  3,526
  3,844
  4,174
  4,519
  4,876
  5,248
  5,635
  6,036
  6,454
  6,887
  7,339
  7,808
  8,296
  8,805
Total equity, $m
  650
  823
  1,024
  1,255
  1,515
  1,805
  2,126
  2,476
  2,856
  3,264
  3,701
  4,165
  4,655
  5,172
  5,714
  6,282
  6,876
  7,495
  8,140
  8,810
  9,508
  10,233
  10,987
  11,770
  12,584
  13,430
  14,309
  15,224
  16,177
  17,169
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  983
  1,245
  1,549
  1,898
  2,292
  2,731
  3,216
  3,746
  4,321
  4,938
  5,599
  6,301
  7,042
  7,824
  8,645
  9,504
  10,402
  11,339
  12,314
  13,329
  14,384
  15,481
  16,622
  17,806
  19,038
  20,317
  21,648
  23,032
  24,473
  25,974
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.140
  0.220
  0.280
  0.320
  0.350
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  113
  162
  218
  283
  357
  439
  530
  629
  737
  853
  985
  1,117
  1,256
  1,402
  1,556
  1,718
  1,886
  2,062
  2,245
  2,436
  2,634
  2,840
  3,054
  3,277
  3,508
  3,749
  3,999
  4,260
  4,531
  4,813
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  36
  42
  49
  58
  67
  78
  90
  103
  116
  131
  135
  152
  170
  189
  209
  230
  252
  274
  298
  322
  348
  375
  402
  431
  461
  491
  524
  557
  592
  628
Funds from operations, $m
  149
  204
  268
  341
  424
  517
  620
  732
  853
  984
  1,120
  1,269
  1,426
  1,592
  1,766
  1,948
  2,138
  2,336
  2,543
  2,758
  2,982
  3,215
  3,456
  3,708
  3,969
  4,240
  4,523
  4,817
  5,123
  5,441
Change in working capital, $m
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
Cash from operations, $m
  128
  180
  240
  309
  388
  476
  575
  683
  800
  927
  1,060
  1,204
  1,358
  1,520
  1,690
  1,868
  2,055
  2,250
  2,453
  2,665
  2,885
  3,113
  3,351
  3,598
  3,855
  4,122
  4,400
  4,689
  4,990
  5,303
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -24
  -30
  -37
  -46
  -55
  -66
  -78
  -91
  -105
  -119
  -135
  -152
  -170
  -189
  -209
  -230
  -252
  -274
  -298
  -322
  -348
  -375
  -402
  -431
  -461
  -491
  -524
  -557
  -592
New CAPEX, $m
  -54
  -63
  -74
  -84
  -95
  -106
  -117
  -128
  -139
  -149
  -160
  -170
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -255
  -265
  -276
  -287
  -298
  -310
  -322
  -335
  -349
  -363
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -72
  -87
  -104
  -121
  -141
  -161
  -183
  -206
  -230
  -254
  -279
  -305
  -332
  -359
  -388
  -417
  -447
  -479
  -510
  -544
  -577
  -613
  -651
  -689
  -729
  -771
  -813
  -859
  -906
  -955
Free cash flow, $m
  56
  92
  136
  187
  247
  315
  391
  477
  571
  673
  780
  899
  1,026
  1,160
  1,302
  1,451
  1,608
  1,772
  1,943
  2,121
  2,307
  2,500
  2,701
  2,910
  3,127
  3,352
  3,587
  3,830
  4,084
  4,348
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  75
  89
  103
  118
  133
  149
  164
  180
  195
  209
  224
  238
  252
  265
  278
  291
  304
  317
  331
  344
  358
  372
  386
  402
  417
  434
  451
  469
  488
  509
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  33
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  108
  100
  103
  118
  133
  149
  164
  180
  195
  209
  224
  238
  252
  265
  278
  291
  304
  317
  331
  344
  358
  372
  386
  402
  417
  434
  451
  469
  488
  509
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  165
  192
  239
  305
  380
  464
  556
  656
  765
  882
  1,004
  1,137
  1,277
  1,425
  1,580
  1,743
  1,912
  2,089
  2,273
  2,465
  2,665
  2,872
  3,087
  3,311
  3,544
  3,786
  4,038
  4,300
  4,573
  4,857
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -146
  -173
  -201
  -230
  -260
  -290
  -321
  -350
  -380
  -408
  -436
  -464
  -491
  -517
  -543
  -568
  -594
  -619
  -645
  -671
  -698
  -725
  -754
  -783
  -814
  -846
  -880
  -915
  -952
  -992
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  408
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  16
  21
  26
  33
  40
  49
  58
  68
  79
  92
  105
  119
  134
  149
  166
  183
  202
  221
  241
  261
  283
  305
  329
  353
  378
  404
  431
  459
  489
  519
Cash available for distribution, $m
  427
  19
  38
  75
  120
  173
  235
  306
  386
  474
  568
  673
  787
  908
  1,038
  1,175
  1,319
  1,470
  1,629
  1,794
  1,967
  2,147
  2,334
  2,528
  2,730
  2,940
  3,158
  3,385
  3,620
  3,865
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  410
  18
  33
  62
  93
  126
  159
  191
  222
  248
  270
  287
  299
  305
  305
  298
  287
  271
  251
  228
  203
  178
  153
  129
  106
  86
  68
  52
  40
  29
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.0
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2
  96.2

Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures and sells capital equipment and expendable tools, as well as services, maintains, repairs and upgrades equipment, all used to assemble semiconductor devices. The Company supplies a range of bonding equipment. The Company operates through two segments: Equipment and Expendable Tools. The Equipment segment manufactures and sells a line of ball bonders, wedge bonders, advanced packaging and surface mount technology solutions. The Expendable Tools segment manufactures and sells expendable tools for a range of semiconductor packaging applications. It offers capital equipment and expendable tools used to assemble semiconductor devices, including integrated circuits, high and low powered discrete devices, light-emitting diodes and power modules. Its customers primarily consist of semiconductor device manufacturers, outsourced semiconductor assembly and test providers, other electronics manufacturers and automotive electronics suppliers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kulicke&Soffa Industries (KLIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.9
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 29%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 333.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 21.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 1.8%
Total Debt to Equity 1.8%
Interest Coverage 105
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 12.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Equity 13%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.8%
EBITDA Margin 15%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Operating Margin 12.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Net Profit Margin 13.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Effective Tax Rate -7.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

KLIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KLIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $809 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kulicke&Soffa Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Kulicke&Soffa Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KLIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 29% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KLIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kulicke&Soffa Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kulicke&Soffa Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KLIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $107 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KLIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.5% for Kulicke&Soffa Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kulicke&Soffa Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KLIC stock is equal to 2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KLIC are equal to 22.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kulicke&Soffa Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KLIC is equal to 8.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $913 million for Kulicke&Soffa Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 71 million for Kulicke&Soffa Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kulicke&Soffa Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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