Intrinsic value of Kamada - KMDA

Previous Close

$5.55

  Intrinsic Value

$40.66

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+633%

Previous close

$5.55

 
Intrinsic value

$40.66

 
Up/down potential

+633%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of KMDA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  32.70
  29.93
  27.44
  25.19
  23.17
  21.36
  19.72
  18.25
  16.92
  15.73
  14.66
  13.69
  12.82
  12.04
  11.34
  10.70
  10.13
  9.62
  9.16
  8.74
  8.37
  8.03
  7.73
  7.46
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
Revenue, $m
  136
  177
  226
  283
  348
  423
  506
  599
  700
  810
  929
  1,056
  1,191
  1,335
  1,486
  1,645
  1,812
  1,986
  2,168
  2,357
  2,555
  2,760
  2,973
  3,195
  3,425
  3,664
  3,913
  4,172
  4,441
  4,721
Variable operating expenses, $m
  66
  86
  110
  137
  169
  205
  245
  290
  339
  393
  450
  512
  578
  647
  721
  798
  879
  963
  1,051
  1,143
  1,239
  1,338
  1,442
  1,549
  1,661
  1,777
  1,898
  2,023
  2,154
  2,290
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
  74
  76
  78
  79
  81
  83
  85
  86
  88
Total operating expenses, $m
  113
  134
  159
  187
  220
  257
  299
  345
  395
  450
  508
  572
  639
  709
  785
  863
  946
  1,031
  1,121
  1,214
  1,312
  1,412
  1,518
  1,627
  1,740
  1,858
  1,981
  2,108
  2,240
  2,378
Operating income, $m
  23
  43
  67
  95
  128
  165
  207
  254
  304
  360
  420
  484
  552
  625
  702
  782
  866
  955
  1,047
  1,143
  1,243
  1,347
  1,455
  1,568
  1,685
  1,806
  1,933
  2,064
  2,201
  2,343
EBITDA, $m
  28
  49
  75
  105
  140
  180
  224
  274
  328
  388
  452
  520
  593
  671
  752
  838
  928
  1,022
  1,121
  1,223
  1,330
  1,441
  1,557
  1,677
  1,801
  1,931
  2,066
  2,206
  2,352
  2,504
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  55
  60
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
Earnings before tax, $m
  23
  42
  65
  92
  123
  159
  198
  243
  291
  344
  401
  462
  527
  596
  668
  745
  825
  909
  996
  1,088
  1,183
  1,281
  1,384
  1,491
  1,602
  1,717
  1,837
  1,962
  2,092
  2,227
Tax expense, $m
  6
  11
  18
  25
  33
  43
  54
  65
  79
  93
  108
  125
  142
  161
  180
  201
  223
  245
  269
  294
  319
  346
  374
  403
  432
  464
  496
  530
  565
  601
Net income, $m
  17
  31
  48
  67
  90
  116
  145
  177
  212
  251
  293
  337
  385
  435
  488
  544
  602
  663
  727
  794
  863
  935
  1,010
  1,088
  1,169
  1,254
  1,341
  1,432
  1,527
  1,626

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  143
  186
  237
  296
  365
  443
  530
  627
  733
  848
  972
  1,106
  1,247
  1,398
  1,556
  1,723
  1,897
  2,080
  2,270
  2,468
  2,675
  2,890
  3,113
  3,345
  3,586
  3,837
  4,098
  4,368
  4,650
  4,943
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  143
  186
  237
  296
  365
  443
  530
  627
  733
  848
  972
  1,106
  1,247
  1,398
  1,556
  1,723
  1,897
  2,080
  2,270
  2,468
  2,675
  2,890
  3,113
  3,345
  3,586
  3,837
  4,098
  4,368
  4,650
  4,943
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.951
  0.952
  0.954
  0.956
  0.953
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.956
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
Average production assets, $m
  32
  41
  52
  66
  81
  98
  117
  139
  162
  188
  215
  245
  276
  310
  345
  382
  420
  461
  503
  547
  593
  640
  690
  741
  795
  850
  908
  968
  1,030
  1,095
Working capital, $m
  33
  43
  55
  69
  85
  103
  124
  146
  171
  198
  227
  258
  291
  326
  363
  401
  442
  485
  529
  575
  623
  673
  725
  780
  836
  894
  955
  1,018
  1,084
  1,152
Total debt, $m
  12
  25
  40
  58
  78
  101
  127
  156
  188
  222
  259
  298
  340
  385
  432
  482
  533
  588
  644
  703
  764
  828
  895
  964
  1,035
  1,110
  1,187
  1,267
  1,351
  1,438
Total liabilities, $m
  42
  55
  70
  88
  108
  131
  157
  186
  218
  252
  289
  328
  370
  415
  462
  512
  563
  618
  674
  733
  794
  858
  925
  994
  1,065
  1,140
  1,217
  1,297
  1,381
  1,468
Total equity, $m
  100
  131
  166
  208
  256
  311
  373
  441
  515
  596
  684
  777
  877
  982
  1,094
  1,211
  1,334
  1,462
  1,596
  1,735
  1,881
  2,032
  2,189
  2,352
  2,521
  2,697
  2,881
  3,071
  3,269
  3,475
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  142
  186
  236
  296
  364
  442
  530
  627
  733
  848
  973
  1,105
  1,247
  1,397
  1,556
  1,723
  1,897
  2,080
  2,270
  2,468
  2,675
  2,890
  3,114
  3,346
  3,586
  3,837
  4,098
  4,368
  4,650
  4,943
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.120
  0.190
  0.240
  0.280
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  17
  31
  48
  67
  90
  116
  145
  177
  212
  251
  293
  337
  385
  435
  488
  544
  602
  663
  727
  794
  863
  935
  1,010
  1,088
  1,169
  1,254
  1,341
  1,432
  1,527
  1,626
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  74
  80
  87
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  142
  152
  161
Funds from operations, $m
  22
  37
  55
  77
  102
  130
  162
  197
  236
  279
  324
  373
  425
  480
  539
  600
  664
  731
  801
  874
  950
  1,030
  1,112
  1,197
  1,286
  1,379
  1,475
  1,574
  1,678
  1,787
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
Cash from operations, $m
  13
  27
  43
  63
  86
  112
  142
  175
  212
  252
  295
  342
  392
  445
  502
  561
  623
  689
  757
  828
  902
  979
  1,060
  1,143
  1,230
  1,320
  1,414
  1,511
  1,613
  1,718
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -134
  -142
  -152
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -62
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -126
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -162
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -204
  -217
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  13
  26
  42
  61
  83
  108
  136
  168
  202
  240
  281
  325
  371
  421
  473
  529
  586
  647
  710
  776
  845
  916
  990
  1,068
  1,148
  1,231
  1,318
  1,408
  1,502
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  10
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  20
  25
  41
  60
  81
  106
  134
  165
  199
  237
  277
  320
  367
  416
  468
  523
  580
  641
  704
  769
  837
  908
  982
  1,059
  1,139
  1,222
  1,309
  1,398
  1,492
  1,589
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -42
  -48
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  9
  -5
  5
  18
  33
  51
  73
  97
  125
  156
  190
  227
  267
  310
  357
  406
  458
  512
  570
  630
  692
  757
  825
  896
  970
  1,046
  1,125
  1,208
  1,294
  1,383
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  9
  -4
  5
  15
  26
  37
  49
  61
  72
  82
  90
  97
  102
  104
  105
  103
  100
  94
  88
  80
  72
  63
  54
  46
  38
  31
  24
  19
  14
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1

Kamada Ltd. is an Israel-based biopharmaceutical company, which develops, produces and markets therapeutics, based on chromatographic purification technology. It offers bio-therapeutics for human use, such as specialty proteins, specific immunoglobulins, and other prescription medicines. The Company’s product line includes intravenous AAT for chronic replacement therapy in individuals with congenital alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency; KamRAB for prophylaxis of rabies infection; KamRho-D IM for prophylaxis of Rh hemolytic disease of the newborn; KamRho-D IV for treatment of immune thrombocytopenic purpura; and IVIG, a replacement therapy in primary and secondary immune therapy. Its product line also comprises Protosol to reduce blood loss in patients undergoing cardiac surgery; Heparin sodium injection for coagulation inhibition and prophylaxis of thromboembolic diseases and Heparin Lock Flush to maintain potency of intravenous injection device among other.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kamada (KMDA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

KMDA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KMDA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $102.825 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kamada. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Kamada. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KMDA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 32.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KMDA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kamada, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kamada.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KMDA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 48.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $46 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KMDA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.6% for Kamada.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kamada. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KMDA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KMDA are equal to 23.2%.

Life of production assets of 6.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kamada operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KMDA is equal to 24.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $89.492 million for Kamada - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.263 million for Kamada is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kamada at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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