Intrinsic value of Kennametal - KMT

Previous Close

$38.80

  Intrinsic Value

$1.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$38.80

 
Intrinsic value

$1.64

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of KMT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,099
  2,147
  2,203
  2,265
  2,333
  2,409
  2,491
  2,579
  2,675
  2,778
  2,888
  3,005
  3,130
  3,262
  3,403
  3,552
  3,710
  3,877
  4,053
  4,239
  4,436
  4,643
  4,862
  5,092
  5,334
  5,589
  5,858
  6,141
  6,438
  6,751
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,142
  2,190
  2,245
  2,307
  2,376
  2,451
  2,533
  2,621
  2,716
  2,819
  2,879
  2,996
  3,120
  3,253
  3,393
  3,542
  3,699
  3,865
  4,041
  4,227
  4,423
  4,630
  4,847
  5,077
  5,319
  5,573
  5,841
  6,123
  6,419
  6,731
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,142
  2,190
  2,245
  2,307
  2,376
  2,451
  2,533
  2,621
  2,716
  2,819
  2,879
  2,996
  3,120
  3,253
  3,393
  3,542
  3,699
  3,865
  4,041
  4,227
  4,423
  4,630
  4,847
  5,077
  5,319
  5,573
  5,841
  6,123
  6,419
  6,731
Operating income, $m
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -41
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
EBITDA, $m
  132
  135
  139
  143
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  206
  214
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  293
  306
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  406
  425
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
Earnings before tax, $m
  -81
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -133
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -169
  -179
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -81
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -133
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -169
  -179

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,464
  2,520
  2,585
  2,658
  2,739
  2,827
  2,923
  3,027
  3,140
  3,260
  3,389
  3,527
  3,673
  3,829
  3,994
  4,169
  4,354
  4,550
  4,757
  4,976
  5,206
  5,450
  5,706
  5,976
  6,261
  6,560
  6,876
  7,207
  7,556
  7,923
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,464
  2,520
  2,585
  2,658
  2,739
  2,827
  2,923
  3,027
  3,140
  3,260
  3,389
  3,527
  3,673
  3,829
  3,994
  4,169
  4,354
  4,550
  4,757
  4,976
  5,206
  5,450
  5,706
  5,976
  6,261
  6,560
  6,876
  7,207
  7,556
  7,923
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
  0.852
Average production assets, $m
  1,262
  1,291
  1,324
  1,361
  1,402
  1,448
  1,497
  1,550
  1,608
  1,669
  1,735
  1,806
  1,881
  1,961
  2,045
  2,135
  2,230
  2,330
  2,436
  2,548
  2,666
  2,791
  2,922
  3,060
  3,206
  3,359
  3,521
  3,691
  3,869
  4,057
Working capital, $m
  277
  283
  291
  299
  308
  318
  329
  340
  353
  367
  381
  397
  413
  431
  449
  469
  490
  512
  535
  560
  586
  613
  642
  672
  704
  738
  773
  811
  850
  891
Total debt, $m
  724
  757
  794
  836
  883
  934
  990
  1,050
  1,115
  1,185
  1,260
  1,339
  1,424
  1,514
  1,610
  1,711
  1,819
  1,932
  2,052
  2,178
  2,312
  2,453
  2,601
  2,758
  2,922
  3,096
  3,278
  3,470
  3,673
  3,885
Total liabilities, $m
  1,427
  1,459
  1,497
  1,539
  1,586
  1,637
  1,693
  1,753
  1,818
  1,888
  1,962
  2,042
  2,127
  2,217
  2,312
  2,414
  2,521
  2,635
  2,754
  2,881
  3,015
  3,155
  3,304
  3,460
  3,625
  3,798
  3,981
  4,173
  4,375
  4,588
Total equity, $m
  1,037
  1,061
  1,088
  1,119
  1,153
  1,190
  1,231
  1,275
  1,322
  1,373
  1,427
  1,485
  1,546
  1,612
  1,681
  1,755
  1,833
  1,916
  2,003
  2,095
  2,192
  2,294
  2,402
  2,516
  2,636
  2,762
  2,895
  3,034
  3,181
  3,336
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,464
  2,520
  2,585
  2,658
  2,739
  2,827
  2,924
  3,028
  3,140
  3,261
  3,389
  3,527
  3,673
  3,829
  3,993
  4,169
  4,354
  4,551
  4,757
  4,976
  5,207
  5,449
  5,706
  5,976
  6,261
  6,560
  6,876
  7,207
  7,556
  7,924
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
  1.070
  1.080
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -81
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -133
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -169
  -179
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  175
  178
  182
  185
  189
  194
  199
  204
  210
  216
  174
  181
  188
  196
  205
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  306
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  406
Funds from operations, $m
  95
  96
  98
  100
  102
  104
  106
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  137
  141
  146
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  227
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
Cash from operations, $m
  89
  90
  91
  92
  93
  94
  96
  97
  99
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  155
  161
  166
  173
  179
  186
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -124
  -126
  -129
  -132
  -136
  -140
  -145
  -150
  -155
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -279
  -292
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -387
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -295
  -308
  -323
  -339
  -356
  -373
  -392
  -410
  -430
  -452
  -474
  -497
  -522
  -548
  -575
Free cash flow, $m
  -60
  -65
  -72
  -78
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -157
  -167
  -177
  -188
  -199
  -211
  -224
  -237
  -251
  -265
  -281
  -297
  -313
  -331
  -349
  -369
  -389
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  28
  33
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  165
  173
  183
  192
  202
  213
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  150
  160
  169
  180
  190
  202
  214
  226
  239
  253
  268
  283
  299
  316
  333
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  129
  139
  149
  158
  169
  178
  189
  199
  210
  222
  185
  197
  210
  223
  237
  251
  267
  282
  300
  317
  336
  355
  374
  395
  418
  441
  466
  491
  518
  546
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  69
  73
  77
  80
  84
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -110
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -141
  -150
  -160
  -169
  -180
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -226
  -239
  -253
  -268
  -283
  -299
  -316
  -333
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  21
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -167
  -177
Discount rate, %
  5.10
  5.36
  5.62
  5.90
  6.20
  6.51
  6.83
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.45
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -30
  -29
  -29
  -29
  -28
  -28
  -27
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -21
  -20
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -12
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.9
  93.7
  90.6
  87.6
  84.5
  81.6
  78.7
  75.9
  73.2
  70.5
  68.7
  66.9
  65.1
  63.3
  61.6
  59.8
  58.1
  56.4
  54.7
  53.0
  51.4
  49.8
  48.3
  46.7
  45.2
  43.8
  42.4
  41.0
  39.6
  38.3

Kennametal Inc. is a supplier of tooling, engineered components and materials consumed in production processes. The Company operates through two segments: Industrial and Infrastructure. The Industrial segment generally serves customers that operate in industrial end markets, such as transportation, general engineering, aerospace and defense. The Infrastructure segment generally serves customers that operate in the earthworks and energy sectors supporting primary industries, such as oil and gas, power generation, underground, surface and hard-rock mining, highway construction and road maintenance. It provides wear-resistant products, application engineering and services backed by material science serving customers across various sectors. The Company's product offerings include a selection of standard and customized technologies for metalworking, such as metal cutting tools, tooling systems and services, as well as materials, such as cemented tungsten carbide products and super alloys.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kennametal (KMT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 63.9
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 42.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 191
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 68.3%
Total Debt to Equity 68.4%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.9%
Return On Equity 4.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.5%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.6%
EBITDA Margin 10.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Operating Margin 5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.7%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Effective Tax Rate 36.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Payout Ratio 130.6%

KMT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KMT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2058 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kennametal. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Kennametal. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KMT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.1%, whose default value for KMT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kennametal, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kennametal.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KMT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 102.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KMT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Kennametal.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kennametal. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KMT stock is equal to 1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KMT are equal to 60.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kennametal operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KMT is equal to 13.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1017 million for Kennametal - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 80 million for Kennametal is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kennametal at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Kennametal names new CFO   [08:03AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Kennametal: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ What is Behind Kennametal Incs (NYSE:KMT) Superior ROE?   [Jun-21-18 10:40AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Kennametal CFO Jan Kees van Gaalen to Retire   [Jun-15-18 06:45AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Kennametal Prices $300,000,000 of Senior Notes   [Jun-04-18 06:19PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Kennametal Names Lorraine Martin To Board Of Directors   [May-24-18 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Industrial Dividend Stocks Of The Month: Kennametal And More   [May-12-18 12:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Kennametal: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Bullish on Caterpillar? You'll Love These 2 Stocks   [Apr-03-18 09:30AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Kennametal misses 2Q profit forecasts   [06:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ John Rogers Comments on Kennametal Inc.   [Jan-18-18 06:00PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Kennametal Names New Business Segment Leaders   [Jan-16-18 06:45AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Kennametal Names Joseph Alvarado to Board of Directors   [Dec-15-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Opening Bell, December 12, 2017   [09:30AM  CNBC Videos]
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