Intrinsic value of Cesca Therapeutics - KOOL

Previous Close

$0.42

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$0.42

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of KOOL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.80
  20.12
  18.61
  17.25
  16.02
  14.92
  13.93
  13.04
  12.23
  11.51
  10.86
  10.27
  9.74
  9.27
  8.84
  8.46
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
Revenue, $m
  18
  22
  26
  31
  35
  41
  46
  52
  59
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  105
  113
  123
  132
  142
  153
  163
  174
  186
  198
  211
  224
  237
  252
  266
  282
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
Total operating expenses, $m
  25
  27
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  37
  38
  37
  38
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
Operating income, $m
  -7
  -4
  -2
  2
  5
  9
  13
  18
  22
  27
  36
  41
  47
  53
  59
  66
  73
  80
  88
  95
  103
  112
  120
  130
  139
  149
  159
  170
  181
  193
EBITDA, $m
  1
  4
  8
  13
  17
  23
  28
  34
  40
  47
  54
  61
  69
  77
  86
  94
  104
  113
  123
  133
  144
  155
  167
  179
  192
  205
  219
  233
  248
  263
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  12
  28
  43
  59
  76
  96
  117
  139
  163
  188
  215
  243
  273
  304
  336
  370
  405
  441
  479
  518
  559
  602
  646
  692
  739
  789
  841
  895
  951
  1,009
Earnings before tax, $m
  -19
  -32
  -44
  -57
  -71
  -87
  -103
  -121
  -141
  -161
  -179
  -202
  -226
  -251
  -276
  -303
  -332
  -361
  -391
  -423
  -456
  -490
  -525
  -562
  -600
  -640
  -682
  -725
  -770
  -816
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -19
  -32
  -44
  -57
  -71
  -87
  -103
  -121
  -141
  -161
  -179
  -202
  -226
  -251
  -276
  -303
  -332
  -361
  -391
  -423
  -456
  -490
  -525
  -562
  -600
  -640
  -682
  -725
  -770
  -816

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  59
  71
  84
  99
  115
  132
  150
  170
  190
  212
  235
  259
  285
  311
  339
  367
  397
  428
  460
  494
  528
  565
  602
  641
  682
  724
  768
  814
  862
  912
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  59
  71
  84
  99
  115
  132
  150
  170
  190
  212
  235
  259
  285
  311
  339
  367
  397
  428
  460
  494
  528
  565
  602
  641
  682
  724
  768
  814
  862
  912
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.305
  0.310
  0.310
  0.313
  0.304
  0.311
  0.307
  0.306
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.310
  0.308
  0.310
  0.308
  0.309
  0.310
  0.309
  0.308
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.310
  0.309
  0.309
Average production assets, $m
  46
  55
  65
  76
  89
  102
  116
  131
  147
  164
  182
  201
  220
  240
  262
  284
  307
  331
  356
  382
  408
  436
  465
  496
  527
  560
  594
  629
  666
  705
Working capital, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Total debt, $m
  8
  12
  16
  21
  27
  33
  39
  46
  53
  60
  68
  77
  85
  94
  104
  114
  124
  134
  145
  157
  169
  181
  194
  208
  221
  236
  251
  267
  283
  300
Total liabilities, $m
  20
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  51
  58
  65
  73
  81
  89
  98
  107
  116
  126
  136
  147
  158
  169
  181
  194
  207
  220
  234
  248
  264
  279
  296
  313
Total equity, $m
  39
  47
  55
  65
  75
  87
  99
  111
  125
  139
  155
  170
  187
  204
  222
  241
  261
  281
  302
  324
  347
  371
  396
  421
  448
  476
  505
  535
  566
  599
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  59
  71
  84
  99
  114
  132
  150
  169
  190
  212
  236
  259
  285
  311
  338
  367
  397
  428
  460
  493
  528
  565
  603
  641
  682
  724
  769
  814
  862
  912
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.200
  0.260
  0.300
  0.330
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -19
  -32
  -44
  -57
  -71
  -87
  -103
  -121
  -141
  -161
  -179
  -202
  -226
  -251
  -276
  -303
  -332
  -361
  -391
  -423
  -456
  -490
  -525
  -562
  -600
  -640
  -682
  -725
  -770
  -816
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  70
Funds from operations, $m
  -12
  -24
  -34
  -46
  -59
  -73
  -89
  -105
  -123
  -141
  -161
  -182
  -204
  -226
  -250
  -275
  -301
  -328
  -356
  -385
  -415
  -446
  -479
  -513
  -548
  -584
  -622
  -662
  -703
  -746
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  -12
  -24
  -35
  -46
  -60
  -74
  -89
  -106
  -123
  -142
  -162
  -183
  -204
  -227
  -251
  -276
  -302
  -329
  -357
  -386
  -416
  -447
  -480
  -514
  -549
  -585
  -624
  -663
  -704
  -747
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -100
  -106
Free cash flow, $m
  -25
  -38
  -50
  -64
  -79
  -96
  -114
  -132
  -152
  -174
  -196
  -219
  -244
  -270
  -296
  -324
  -353
  -383
  -415
  -447
  -481
  -516
  -553
  -590
  -630
  -671
  -714
  -758
  -804
  -853
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  27
  40
  53
  67
  82
  98
  116
  134
  154
  175
  194
  218
  242
  268
  295
  322
  351
  381
  412
  445
  479
  514
  550
  588
  627
  668
  711
  755
  801
  849
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  31
  44
  58
  72
  87
  104
  122
  141
  161
  183
  202
  226
  251
  277
  304
  332
  361
  392
  423
  456
  491
  526
  563
  601
  641
  683
  726
  771
  817
  866
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -27
  -40
  -53
  -67
  -82
  -98
  -116
  -134
  -154
  -175
  -194
  -218
  -242
  -268
  -295
  -322
  -351
  -381
  -412
  -445
  -479
  -514
  -550
  -588
  -627
  -668
  -711
  -755
  -801
  -849
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -21
  -34
  -46
  -59
  -74
  -90
  -107
  -126
  -145
  -166
  -188
  -211
  -235
  -261
  -287
  -314
  -343
  -373
  -404
  -436
  -469
  -504
  -540
  -577
  -616
  -656
  -698
  -742
  -788
  -836
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -20
  -31
  -40
  -49
  -57
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -89
  -90
  -89
  -87
  -84
  -80
  -75
  -69
  -62
  -55
  -49
  -42
  -35
  -29
  -24
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -9
  -6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  44.3
  17.9
  6.8
  2.5
  0.9
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Cesca Therapeutics Inc. is clinical-stage biotechnology company. The Company develops and markets integrated cellular therapies and delivery systems. The Company is engaged in developing and manufacturing of automated blood and bone marrow processing systems that enable the separation, processing and preservation of cell and tissue therapy products. The Company focuses on the business of research, development and commercialization of autologous cell-based therapeutics for use in the regenerative medicine industry. The Company's therapeutic development initiatives focuses on the fields of cardiovascular medicine and orthopedic regeneration. The Company offers a range of products, such as SurgWerks System, CellWerks System, AutoXpress System (AXP), MarrowXpress System (MXP), BioArchive System, and manual bag sets for use in the processing and cryogenic storage of cord blood.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cesca Therapeutics (KOOL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.1
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 12.9%
Total Debt to Equity 12.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -59.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.2%
Return On Total Capital -84.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -58.3%
Return On Equity -92.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -61.5%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.1%
EBITDA Margin -193.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -143.6%
Operating Margin -60%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -84.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -200%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -150.7%
Net Profit Margin -193.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -148.5%
Effective Tax Rate 3.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

KOOL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KOOL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $15 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cesca Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Cesca Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KOOL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KOOL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cesca Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cesca Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KOOL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 41.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $18 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KOOL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 356.3% for Cesca Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cesca Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KOOL stock is equal to 10.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KOOL are equal to 250.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cesca Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KOOL is equal to 9.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $31 million for Cesca Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9 million for Cesca Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cesca Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Rancho Cordova-based Cesca Therapeutics cutting about 20 jobs   [Jun-04-18 05:56PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Cesca Therapeutics Incs (NASDAQ:KOOL) Profit Outlook   [May-31-18 02:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Cesca Announces Closing of $5.5 Million Public Offering   [May-18-18 11:12AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cesca Prices $5.5 Million Public Offering   [May-16-18 12:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cesca raising $1.4 million in direct offering of stock   [Mar-26-18 05:53PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ How Financially Strong Is Cesca Therapeutics Inc (KOOL)?   [Dec-07-17 01:03PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Cesca Therapeutics aims to raise nearly $3 million with share offering   [Nov-29-17 06:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Distribution deal could help Rancho Cordova's Cesca expand into growing Asian markets   [Aug-29-17 03:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Company News for July 11, 2017   [Jul-11-17 10:19AM  Zacks]
▶ Rancho Cordova's Cesca Therapeutics acquiring Sacramento-based SynGen   [Jul-10-17 03:21PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Cesca Therapeutics Set to Join Russell Microcap® Index   [Jun-23-17 10:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cesca Therapeutics Announces Senior Management Promotions   [Apr-03-17 06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Wednesdays Biggest Biopharma Movers   [Mar-15-17 12:10PM  24/7 Wall St.]
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