Intrinsic value of Michael Kors Holdings - KORS

Previous Close

$67.17

  Intrinsic Value

$67.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

0%

Previous close

$67.17

 
Intrinsic value

$67.22

 
Up/down potential

0%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of KORS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 11.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,584
  4,689
  4,810
  4,945
  5,095
  5,260
  5,439
  5,633
  5,841
  6,066
  6,305
  6,561
  6,834
  7,123
  7,431
  7,756
  8,101
  8,466
  8,851
  9,257
  9,687
  10,139
  10,616
  11,119
  11,648
  12,205
  12,792
  13,409
  14,059
  14,742
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,441
  3,519
  3,608
  3,708
  3,819
  3,941
  4,073
  4,216
  4,371
  4,536
  4,660
  4,849
  5,050
  5,264
  5,492
  5,732
  5,987
  6,256
  6,541
  6,841
  7,159
  7,493
  7,846
  8,217
  8,608
  9,020
  9,454
  9,910
  10,390
  10,894
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,441
  3,519
  3,608
  3,708
  3,819
  3,941
  4,073
  4,216
  4,371
  4,536
  4,660
  4,849
  5,050
  5,264
  5,492
  5,732
  5,987
  6,256
  6,541
  6,841
  7,159
  7,493
  7,846
  8,217
  8,608
  9,020
  9,454
  9,910
  10,390
  10,894
Operating income, $m
  1,142
  1,170
  1,201
  1,237
  1,276
  1,319
  1,366
  1,416
  1,471
  1,529
  1,646
  1,712
  1,783
  1,859
  1,939
  2,024
  2,114
  2,209
  2,310
  2,416
  2,528
  2,646
  2,770
  2,902
  3,040
  3,185
  3,338
  3,499
  3,669
  3,847
EBITDA, $m
  1,297
  1,327
  1,361
  1,399
  1,442
  1,488
  1,539
  1,594
  1,653
  1,716
  1,784
  1,857
  1,934
  2,016
  2,103
  2,195
  2,292
  2,396
  2,505
  2,620
  2,741
  2,869
  3,004
  3,146
  3,296
  3,454
  3,620
  3,794
  3,978
  4,171
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,134
  1,161
  1,191
  1,225
  1,263
  1,304
  1,349
  1,398
  1,450
  1,506
  1,620
  1,684
  1,752
  1,825
  1,902
  1,984
  2,070
  2,161
  2,258
  2,360
  2,467
  2,580
  2,700
  2,826
  2,958
  3,098
  3,245
  3,400
  3,562
  3,733
Tax expense, $m
  306
  313
  322
  331
  341
  352
  364
  377
  391
  407
  437
  455
  473
  493
  514
  536
  559
  584
  610
  637
  666
  697
  729
  763
  799
  836
  876
  918
  962
  1,008
Net income, $m
  828
  847
  870
  894
  922
  952
  985
  1,020
  1,058
  1,099
  1,183
  1,229
  1,279
  1,332
  1,388
  1,448
  1,511
  1,578
  1,648
  1,723
  1,801
  1,884
  1,971
  2,063
  2,160
  2,262
  2,369
  2,482
  2,600
  2,725

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,458
  2,514
  2,579
  2,652
  2,732
  2,820
  2,916
  3,020
  3,132
  3,252
  3,381
  3,518
  3,664
  3,820
  3,984
  4,159
  4,344
  4,539
  4,746
  4,964
  5,194
  5,436
  5,692
  5,962
  6,246
  6,544
  6,859
  7,190
  7,538
  7,904
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,458
  2,514
  2,579
  2,652
  2,732
  2,820
  2,916
  3,020
  3,132
  3,252
  3,381
  3,518
  3,664
  3,820
  3,984
  4,159
  4,344
  4,539
  4,746
  4,964
  5,194
  5,436
  5,692
  5,962
  6,246
  6,544
  6,859
  7,190
  7,538
  7,904
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
  1.865
Average production assets, $m
  1,008
  1,032
  1,058
  1,088
  1,121
  1,157
  1,197
  1,239
  1,285
  1,334
  1,387
  1,444
  1,503
  1,567
  1,635
  1,706
  1,782
  1,862
  1,947
  2,037
  2,131
  2,231
  2,336
  2,446
  2,563
  2,685
  2,814
  2,950
  3,093
  3,243
Working capital, $m
  380
  389
  399
  410
  423
  437
  451
  468
  485
  503
  523
  545
  567
  591
  617
  644
  672
  703
  735
  768
  804
  842
  881
  923
  967
  1,013
  1,062
  1,113
  1,167
  1,224
Total debt, $m
  149
  168
  190
  215
  242
  272
  304
  339
  377
  418
  461
  508
  557
  610
  665
  724
  787
  853
  923
  996
  1,074
  1,156
  1,242
  1,334
  1,429
  1,530
  1,637
  1,749
  1,866
  1,990
Total liabilities, $m
  831
  850
  872
  896
  923
  953
  986
  1,021
  1,059
  1,099
  1,143
  1,189
  1,239
  1,291
  1,347
  1,406
  1,468
  1,534
  1,604
  1,678
  1,756
  1,838
  1,924
  2,015
  2,111
  2,212
  2,318
  2,430
  2,548
  2,672
Total equity, $m
  1,627
  1,665
  1,707
  1,755
  1,809
  1,867
  1,931
  1,999
  2,073
  2,153
  2,238
  2,329
  2,426
  2,529
  2,638
  2,753
  2,876
  3,005
  3,142
  3,286
  3,438
  3,599
  3,768
  3,947
  4,135
  4,332
  4,541
  4,760
  4,990
  5,233
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,458
  2,515
  2,579
  2,651
  2,732
  2,820
  2,917
  3,020
  3,132
  3,252
  3,381
  3,518
  3,665
  3,820
  3,985
  4,159
  4,344
  4,539
  4,746
  4,964
  5,194
  5,437
  5,692
  5,962
  6,246
  6,544
  6,859
  7,190
  7,538
  7,905
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  828
  847
  870
  894
  922
  952
  985
  1,020
  1,058
  1,099
  1,183
  1,229
  1,279
  1,332
  1,388
  1,448
  1,511
  1,578
  1,648
  1,723
  1,801
  1,884
  1,971
  2,063
  2,160
  2,262
  2,369
  2,482
  2,600
  2,725
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  155
  157
  160
  163
  166
  170
  173
  178
  182
  187
  139
  144
  150
  157
  163
  171
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
  223
  234
  245
  256
  269
  281
  295
  309
  324
Funds from operations, $m
  983
  1,004
  1,029
  1,057
  1,088
  1,121
  1,158
  1,198
  1,241
  1,287
  1,321
  1,374
  1,430
  1,489
  1,552
  1,619
  1,689
  1,764
  1,843
  1,926
  2,014
  2,107
  2,205
  2,307
  2,416
  2,530
  2,650
  2,777
  2,910
  3,050
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
Cash from operations, $m
  975
  996
  1,019
  1,046
  1,075
  1,108
  1,143
  1,182
  1,223
  1,268
  1,301
  1,353
  1,407
  1,465
  1,526
  1,592
  1,661
  1,734
  1,811
  1,892
  1,978
  2,069
  2,165
  2,266
  2,372
  2,484
  2,602
  2,725
  2,856
  2,993
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -99
  -101
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -116
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -163
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -269
  -281
  -295
  -309
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -235
  -247
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -328
  -345
  -361
  -379
  -398
  -417
  -438
  -459
Free cash flow, $m
  857
  872
  889
  910
  933
  960
  988
  1,020
  1,054
  1,090
  1,115
  1,158
  1,203
  1,251
  1,302
  1,357
  1,414
  1,475
  1,540
  1,608
  1,680
  1,757
  1,837
  1,922
  2,011
  2,105
  2,204
  2,308
  2,418
  2,533
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  16
  19
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  16
  19
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  873
  891
  911
  935
  961
  989
  1,021
  1,055
  1,091
  1,131
  1,159
  1,204
  1,252
  1,303
  1,358
  1,416
  1,477
  1,541
  1,610
  1,682
  1,758
  1,839
  1,923
  2,013
  2,107
  2,206
  2,310
  2,420
  2,536
  2,657
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -231
  -242
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
Cash available for distribution, $m
  841
  853
  869
  887
  907
  931
  957
  986
  1,017
  1,051
  1,074
  1,113
  1,155
  1,201
  1,249
  1,300
  1,354
  1,412
  1,473
  1,538
  1,606
  1,678
  1,754
  1,834
  1,919
  2,008
  2,102
  2,201
  2,305
  2,415
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  806
  781
  756
  730
  703
  676
  647
  616
  584
  551
  510
  475
  439
  403
  367
  330
  295
  260
  227
  195
  166
  139
  115
  93
  75
  59
  45
  34
  25
  18
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Michael Kors Holdings Limited is a designer, marketer, distributor and retailer of branded women's apparel and accessories and men's apparel bearing the Michael Kors tradename and related trademarks MICHAEL KORS, MICHAEL MICHAEL KORS, and various other related trademarks and logos. The Company operates through three segments: retail, wholesale and licensing. The Retail operations consist of collection stores and lifestyle stores, including concessions and outlet stores, located primarily in the Americas (the United States, Canada and Latin America), Europe and Asia, as well as e-commerce. Wholesale revenues are principally derived from major department and specialty stores located throughout the Americas, Europe and Asia. The Company licenses its trademarks on products, such as fragrances, beauty, eyewear, leather goods, jewelry, watches, coats, men's suits, swimwear, furs and ties, as well as through geographic licenses.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Michael Kors Holdings (KORS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.9
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 6.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -55.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 8.3%
Interest Coverage 173
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 22.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Return On Total Capital 29.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.6%
Return On Equity 30.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.7%
EBITDA Margin 20.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27%
Operating Margin 15.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Net Profit Margin 12.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Effective Tax Rate 19.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

KORS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KORS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4494 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Michael Kors Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Michael Kors Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KORS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KORS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Michael Kors Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Michael Kors Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KORS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KORS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.1% for Michael Kors Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Michael Kors Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KORS stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KORS are equal to 22%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Michael Kors Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KORS is equal to 8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1595 million for Michael Kors Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 166 million for Michael Kors Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Michael Kors Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $11.2 billion.

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