Intrinsic value of Kite Realty Group Trust - KRG

Previous Close

$16.63

  Intrinsic Value

$52.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+215%

Previous close

$16.63

 
Intrinsic value

$52.44

 
Up/down potential

+215%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as KRG.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KRG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  366
  375
  384
  395
  407
  420
  434
  450
  467
  485
  504
  524
  546
  569
  594
  620
  647
  676
  707
  740
  774
  810
  848
  888
  930
  975
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
  1,178
Variable operating expenses, $m
  299
  306
  313
  322
  331
  342
  353
  366
  379
  393
  401
  417
  434
  453
  472
  493
  515
  538
  562
  588
  615
  644
  674
  706
  740
  775
  813
  852
  893
  937
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  299
  306
  313
  322
  331
  342
  353
  366
  379
  393
  401
  417
  434
  453
  472
  493
  515
  538
  562
  588
  615
  644
  674
  706
  740
  775
  813
  852
  893
  937
Operating income, $m
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  103
  107
  112
  116
  122
  127
  132
  138
  145
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  190
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
EBITDA, $m
  449
  459
  471
  484
  499
  515
  533
  552
  572
  594
  617
  643
  669
  698
  728
  760
  793
  829
  867
  907
  949
  993
  1,040
  1,089
  1,141
  1,195
  1,253
  1,313
  1,377
  1,444
Interest expense (income), $m
  67
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
Earnings before tax, $m
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  230
  242
Tax expense, $m
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
Net income, $m
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  -520
  -532
  -546
  -561
  -578
  -597
  -617
  -639
  -663
  -688
  -715
  -745
  -775
  -808
  -843
  -880
  -919
  -961
  -1,004
  -1,050
  -1,099
  -1,150
  -1,205
  -1,262
  -1,322
  -1,385
  -1,452
  -1,522
  -1,595
  -1,673
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  -520
  -532
  -546
  -561
  -578
  -597
  -617
  -639
  -663
  -688
  -715
  -745
  -775
  -808
  -843
  -880
  -919
  -961
  -1,004
  -1,050
  -1,099
  -1,150
  -1,205
  -1,262
  -1,322
  -1,385
  -1,452
  -1,522
  -1,595
  -1,673
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  -0.704
  -0.705
  -0.703
  -0.704
  -0.704
  -0.704
  -0.703
  -0.704
  -0.704
  -0.705
  -0.705
  -0.703
  -0.705
  -0.704
  -0.705
  -0.705
  -0.704
  -0.703
  -0.704
  -0.705
  -0.704
  -0.704
  -0.704
  -0.704
  -0.703
  -0.704
  -0.704
  -0.704
  -0.704
  -0.704
Average production assets, $m
  3,739
  3,825
  3,923
  4,034
  4,156
  4,290
  4,436
  4,594
  4,765
  4,948
  5,143
  5,352
  5,574
  5,811
  6,061
  6,327
  6,608
  6,905
  7,220
  7,551
  7,901
  8,270
  8,659
  9,069
  9,501
  9,956
  10,434
  10,938
  11,468
  12,025
Working capital, $m
  -1,913
  -1,957
  -2,007
  -2,063
  -2,126
  -2,194
  -2,269
  -2,350
  -2,437
  -2,531
  -2,631
  -2,738
  -2,851
  -2,972
  -3,100
  -3,236
  -3,380
  -3,532
  -3,693
  -3,863
  -4,042
  -4,230
  -4,429
  -4,639
  -4,860
  -5,092
  -5,337
  -5,595
  -5,866
  -6,151
Total debt, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Total liabilities, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Total equity, $m
  -517
  -529
  -543
  -558
  -575
  -593
  -613
  -635
  -659
  -684
  -711
  -740
  -771
  -803
  -838
  -875
  -914
  -955
  -998
  -1,044
  -1,093
  -1,144
  -1,197
  -1,254
  -1,314
  -1,377
  -1,443
  -1,512
  -1,586
  -1,663
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  -520
  -532
  -546
  -561
  -578
  -597
  -617
  -639
  -663
  -688
  -715
  -744
  -776
  -808
  -843
  -880
  -920
  -961
  -1,004
  -1,050
  -1,100
  -1,151
  -1,204
  -1,262
  -1,322
  -1,385
  -1,452
  -1,521
  -1,596
  -1,673
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994
  0.994

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  382
  390
  400
  411
  423
  437
  451
  467
  484
  503
  514
  535
  557
  581
  606
  633
  661
  691
  722
  755
  790
  827
  866
  907
  950
  996
  1,043
  1,094
  1,147
  1,202
Funds from operations, $m
  431
  441
  452
  465
  479
  494
  511
  529
  548
  569
  590
  614
  639
  666
  695
  725
  758
  792
  828
  866
  906
  948
  993
  1,040
  1,089
  1,142
  1,196
  1,254
  1,315
  1,379
Change in working capital, $m
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -258
  -271
  -285
Cash from operations, $m
  468
  485
  502
  521
  541
  563
  586
  610
  636
  663
  690
  720
  753
  787
  823
  861
  902
  944
  989
  1,036
  1,085
  1,137
  1,192
  1,250
  1,310
  1,374
  1,441
  1,512
  1,586
  1,664
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -366
  -374
  -383
  -392
  -403
  -416
  -429
  -444
  -459
  -476
  -495
  -514
  -535
  -557
  -581
  -606
  -633
  -661
  -691
  -722
  -755
  -790
  -827
  -866
  -907
  -950
  -996
  -1,043
  -1,094
  -1,147
New CAPEX, $m
  -75
  -86
  -98
  -110
  -122
  -134
  -146
  -158
  -170
  -183
  -196
  -209
  -222
  -236
  -251
  -266
  -281
  -297
  -314
  -332
  -350
  -369
  -389
  -410
  -432
  -455
  -478
  -504
  -530
  -557
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -441
  -460
  -481
  -502
  -525
  -550
  -575
  -602
  -629
  -659
  -691
  -723
  -757
  -793
  -832
  -872
  -914
  -958
  -1,005
  -1,054
  -1,105
  -1,159
  -1,216
  -1,276
  -1,339
  -1,405
  -1,474
  -1,547
  -1,624
  -1,704
Free cash flow, $m
  27
  25
  21
  18
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  13
  8
  3
  -1
  -6
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -118
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  507
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  534
  25
  21
  18
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
Discount rate, %
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
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  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  534
  25
  21
  18
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
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  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Kite Realty Group Trust is a real estate investment trust. The Company, through its subsidiary, Kite Realty Group, L.P., owns interests in various operating subsidiaries and joint ventures engaged in the ownership, operation, acquisition, development and redevelopment of neighborhood and community shopping centers in selected markets in the United States. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned interests in 108 operating retail properties totaling approximately 21.4 million square feet of gross leasable area (including approximately 6.3 million square feet of non-owned anchor space) located in 20 states. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had an interest in two development projects under construction. In addition to its development projects, as of December 31, 2016, the Company had nine redevelopment projects. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned interests in one office operating property and an associated parking garage.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 1389.4
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 105.3%
Total Debt to Equity 105.3%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Return On Equity 0.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 74.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.8%
EBITDA Margin 70.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.3%
Operating Margin 18.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Payout Ratio 9500%

KRG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KRG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $359 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kite Realty Group Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Kite Realty Group Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KRG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 0%, whose default value for KRG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kite Realty Group Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kite Realty Group Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KRG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KRG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Kite Realty Group Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kite Realty Group Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KRG stock is equal to 1.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KRG are equal to 1021.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kite Realty Group Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KRG is equal to -522.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Kite Realty Group Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 84 million for Kite Realty Group Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kite Realty Group Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Kite Realty Group Trust Announces Quarterly Common Dividend   [May-10-18 04:13PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] REITs Feel the Churn as They Shake Up Management Teams   [May-09-18 12:15AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] REITs Feel the Churn as They Shake Up Management Teams   [May-08-18 01:14PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Kite Realty Group: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-25-18 06:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ Insiders Love These 3 Stocks Yielding 7%-9%   [Feb-28-18 08:37AM  Forbes]
▶ Kite Realty Group Trust Announces Quarterly Common Dividend   [Feb-14-18 04:12PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Kite Realty Group reports 4Q results   [Feb-01-18 05:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kite Realty Group reports 3Q results   [Oct-26-17 05:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kite Realty Group Trust Announces Quarterly Common Dividend   [Aug-11-17 04:20PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Kite Realty Group reports 2Q results   [01:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Kite Realty Group Trust Announces Quarterly Common Dividend   [May-11-17 04:17PM  Business Wire]
▶ Kite Realty Group reports 1Q results   [Apr-26-17 06:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Parkside finds replacement tenant for Field & Stream store in Cary   [Mar-31-17 03:15PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Parkside finds replacement tenant for Field & Stream store in Cary   [03:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Kite Realty Group Trust Announces Quarterly Common Dividend   [Mar-07-17 04:17PM  Business Wire]
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