Intrinsic value of Kronos Worldwide - KRO

Previous Close

$17.70

  Intrinsic Value

$62.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+252%

Previous close

$17.70

 
Intrinsic value

$62.35

 
Up/down potential

+252%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of KRO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  1,848
  1,972
  2,101
  2,235
  2,375
  2,521
  2,672
  2,830
  2,994
  3,166
  3,346
  3,533
  3,728
  3,933
  4,147
  4,370
  4,604
  4,849
  5,105
  5,373
  5,654
  5,949
  6,258
  6,581
  6,920
  7,275
  7,648
  8,039
  8,449
  8,879
Variable operating expenses, $m
  519
  554
  590
  628
  667
  708
  751
  795
  841
  890
  940
  993
  1,048
  1,105
  1,165
  1,228
  1,294
  1,363
  1,435
  1,510
  1,589
  1,672
  1,758
  1,849
  1,945
  2,044
  2,149
  2,259
  2,374
  2,495
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  946
  967
  988
  1,010
  1,032
  1,055
  1,078
  1,102
  1,126
  1,151
  1,176
  1,202
  1,229
  1,256
  1,283
  1,312
  1,341
  1,370
  1,400
  1,431
  1,462
  1,495
  1,528
  1,561
  1,595
  1,631
  1,666
  1,703
  1,741
  1,779
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,465
  1,521
  1,578
  1,638
  1,699
  1,763
  1,829
  1,897
  1,967
  2,041
  2,116
  2,195
  2,277
  2,361
  2,448
  2,540
  2,635
  2,733
  2,835
  2,941
  3,051
  3,167
  3,286
  3,410
  3,540
  3,675
  3,815
  3,962
  4,115
  4,274
Operating income, $m
  383
  451
  522
  597
  675
  757
  843
  933
  1,027
  1,125
  1,229
  1,338
  1,452
  1,572
  1,698
  1,830
  1,970
  2,116
  2,270
  2,432
  2,603
  2,783
  2,972
  3,171
  3,380
  3,600
  3,833
  4,077
  4,334
  4,605
EBITDA, $m
  427
  498
  572
  650
  732
  817
  907
  1,000
  1,098
  1,201
  1,309
  1,422
  1,541
  1,666
  1,797
  1,935
  2,080
  2,232
  2,392
  2,561
  2,738
  2,925
  3,121
  3,328
  3,545
  3,774
  4,015
  4,269
  4,536
  4,817
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  157
  167
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
Earnings before tax, $m
  357
  421
  489
  559
  633
  710
  791
  875
  964
  1,058
  1,155
  1,258
  1,366
  1,479
  1,599
  1,724
  1,856
  1,995
  2,141
  2,294
  2,456
  2,626
  2,805
  2,994
  3,192
  3,401
  3,622
  3,854
  4,098
  4,355
Tax expense, $m
  96
  114
  132
  151
  171
  192
  213
  236
  260
  286
  312
  340
  369
  399
  432
  465
  501
  539
  578
  619
  663
  709
  757
  808
  862
  918
  978
  1,040
  1,106
  1,176
Net income, $m
  261
  308
  357
  408
  462
  518
  577
  639
  704
  772
  843
  918
  997
  1,080
  1,167
  1,259
  1,355
  1,456
  1,563
  1,675
  1,793
  1,917
  2,048
  2,185
  2,330
  2,483
  2,644
  2,813
  2,991
  3,179

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,850
  1,974
  2,103
  2,238
  2,377
  2,523
  2,675
  2,833
  2,997
  3,169
  3,349
  3,536
  3,732
  3,937
  4,151
  4,374
  4,609
  4,854
  5,110
  5,379
  5,660
  5,955
  6,264
  6,588
  6,927
  7,283
  7,656
  8,047
  8,457
  8,888
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,850
  1,974
  2,103
  2,238
  2,377
  2,523
  2,675
  2,833
  2,997
  3,169
  3,349
  3,536
  3,732
  3,937
  4,151
  4,374
  4,609
  4,854
  5,110
  5,379
  5,660
  5,955
  6,264
  6,588
  6,927
  7,283
  7,656
  8,047
  8,457
  8,888
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
Average production assets, $m
  503
  536
  572
  608
  646
  686
  727
  770
  815
  861
  910
  961
  1,014
  1,070
  1,128
  1,189
  1,252
  1,319
  1,389
  1,462
  1,538
  1,618
  1,702
  1,790
  1,882
  1,979
  2,080
  2,187
  2,298
  2,415
Working capital, $m
  543
  580
  618
  657
  698
  741
  786
  832
  880
  931
  984
  1,039
  1,096
  1,156
  1,219
  1,285
  1,354
  1,426
  1,501
  1,580
  1,662
  1,749
  1,840
  1,935
  2,034
  2,139
  2,249
  2,363
  2,484
  2,610
Total debt, $m
  548
  625
  705
  788
  874
  964
  1,058
  1,156
  1,258
  1,364
  1,475
  1,591
  1,712
  1,838
  1,970
  2,109
  2,253
  2,405
  2,563
  2,729
  2,903
  3,085
  3,276
  3,476
  3,686
  3,906
  4,136
  4,378
  4,632
  4,898
Total liabilities, $m
  1,143
  1,220
  1,300
  1,383
  1,469
  1,559
  1,653
  1,751
  1,852
  1,959
  2,070
  2,185
  2,306
  2,433
  2,565
  2,703
  2,848
  3,000
  3,158
  3,324
  3,498
  3,680
  3,871
  4,071
  4,281
  4,501
  4,731
  4,973
  5,227
  5,493
Total equity, $m
  707
  754
  803
  855
  908
  964
  1,022
  1,082
  1,145
  1,211
  1,279
  1,351
  1,426
  1,504
  1,586
  1,671
  1,760
  1,854
  1,952
  2,055
  2,162
  2,275
  2,393
  2,516
  2,646
  2,782
  2,924
  3,074
  3,231
  3,395
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,850
  1,974
  2,103
  2,238
  2,377
  2,523
  2,675
  2,833
  2,997
  3,170
  3,349
  3,536
  3,732
  3,937
  4,151
  4,374
  4,608
  4,854
  5,110
  5,379
  5,660
  5,955
  6,264
  6,587
  6,927
  7,283
  7,655
  8,047
  8,458
  8,888
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.780
  0.830
  0.880
  0.920
  0.960
  1.000
  1.040
  1.070
  1.100
  1.130
  1.150
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.310
  1.330
  1.340
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  261
  308
  357
  408
  462
  518
  577
  639
  704
  772
  843
  918
  997
  1,080
  1,167
  1,259
  1,355
  1,456
  1,563
  1,675
  1,793
  1,917
  2,048
  2,185
  2,330
  2,483
  2,644
  2,813
  2,991
  3,179
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  71
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  182
  192
  202
  212
Funds from operations, $m
  305
  355
  407
  461
  519
  578
  641
  707
  775
  848
  923
  1,003
  1,086
  1,174
  1,266
  1,363
  1,465
  1,572
  1,684
  1,803
  1,928
  2,059
  2,197
  2,342
  2,495
  2,657
  2,826
  3,005
  3,193
  3,391
Change in working capital, $m
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  110
  115
  121
  126
Cash from operations, $m
  270
  318
  369
  422
  477
  536
  596
  660
  727
  797
  871
  948
  1,029
  1,114
  1,203
  1,297
  1,396
  1,500
  1,609
  1,724
  1,845
  1,972
  2,106
  2,247
  2,396
  2,552
  2,717
  2,890
  3,072
  3,265
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -192
  -202
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -304
  -319
Free cash flow, $m
  196
  240
  287
  335
  386
  439
  495
  553
  615
  679
  746
  817
  891
  969
  1,051
  1,137
  1,228
  1,323
  1,424
  1,529
  1,640
  1,757
  1,880
  2,010
  2,147
  2,290
  2,442
  2,601
  2,769
  2,946
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  270
  317
  367
  418
  473
  529
  589
  651
  717
  785
  857
  933
  1,012
  1,096
  1,183
  1,276
  1,373
  1,475
  1,582
  1,695
  1,814
  1,939
  2,071
  2,210
  2,356
  2,510
  2,672
  2,843
  3,023
  3,212
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -157
  -164
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  317
  270
  317
  367
  419
  474
  531
  591
  654
  719
  789
  861
  937
  1,017
  1,102
  1,190
  1,283
  1,381
  1,484
  1,593
  1,707
  1,827
  1,953
  2,086
  2,227
  2,374
  2,530
  2,694
  2,866
  3,048
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  304
  247
  276
  302
  325
  344
  359
  369
  375
  377
  374
  367
  356
  342
  323
  302
  279
  254
  229
  202
  177
  152
  128
  106
  87
  69
  54
  42
  31
  23
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (Kronos) is a producer and marketer of titanium dioxide (TiO2) pigments, a base industrial product that is used in a range of applications. The Company, along with its distributors and agents, sells and provides technical services for its products with sales in Europe and North America. It offers its customers a portfolio of products that include TiO2 pigment grades under the Kronos brand, which provides a range of performance properties. It offers its products to domestic and international paint, plastics, decorative laminate and paper manufacturers. It ships TiO2 to its customers in either a powder or slurry form through rail, truck or ocean carrier. It sells and provides technical services for its products in three end use markets, which include coatings, plastics and paper. It produces TiO2 in two crystalline forms, which include rutile and anatase. Rutile TiO2 is manufactured using both a chloride production process and a sulfate production process.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kronos Worldwide (KRO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 47.7
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 5.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 55.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 84.8%
Total Debt to Equity 85.8%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Operating Margin 5.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 29.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -135.2%
Payout Ratio 162.8%

KRO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KRO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1729 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kronos Worldwide. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Kronos Worldwide. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KRO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KRO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kronos Worldwide, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kronos Worldwide.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KRO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 28.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $926 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KRO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Kronos Worldwide.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kronos Worldwide. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KRO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KRO are equal to 27.2%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kronos Worldwide operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KRO is equal to 29.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $754.3 million for Kronos Worldwide - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 115.908 million for Kronos Worldwide is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kronos Worldwide at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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