Intrinsic value of Kronos Worldwide - KRO

Previous Close

$23.76

  Intrinsic Value

$0.83

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$23.76

 
Intrinsic value

$0.83

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KRO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Kronos Worldwide (KRO) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.11
  30.60
  28.04
  25.74
  23.66
  21.80
  20.12
  18.60
  17.24
  16.02
  14.92
  13.93
  13.03
  12.23
  11.51
  10.86
  10.27
  9.74
  9.27
  8.84
  8.46
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
Revenue, $m
  1,364
  1,781
  2,281
  2,868
  3,547
  4,320
  5,188
  6,154
  7,215
  8,371
  9,619
  10,959
  12,387
  13,902
  15,502
  17,185
  18,950
  20,797
  22,725
  24,734
  26,826
  29,002
  31,265
  33,616
  36,060
  38,599
  41,238
  43,982
  46,836
  49,806
  52,896
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,783
  2,283
  2,871
  3,550
  4,324
  5,194
  6,160
  7,222
  8,379
  9,629
  10,970
  12,400
  13,916
  15,518
  17,202
  18,969
  20,818
  22,747
  24,759
  26,853
  29,031
  31,296
  33,650
  36,096
  38,638
  41,280
  44,026
  46,883
  49,855
  52,949
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,283
  1,783
  2,283
  2,871
  3,550
  4,324
  5,194
  6,160
  7,222
  8,379
  9,629
  10,970
  12,400
  13,916
  15,518
  17,202
  18,969
  20,818
  22,747
  24,759
  26,853
  29,031
  31,296
  33,650
  36,096
  38,638
  41,280
  44,026
  46,883
  49,855
  52,949
Operating income, $m
  81
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
EBITDA, $m
  122
  52
  67
  84
  104
  126
  151
  180
  211
  244
  281
  320
  362
  406
  453
  502
  553
  607
  663
  722
  783
  847
  913
  981
  1,053
  1,127
  1,204
  1,284
  1,367
  1,454
  1,544
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  18
  30
  46
  63
  84
  108
  134
  163
  195
  231
  268
  309
  352
  398
  447
  498
  552
  608
  666
  727
  791
  857
  926
  997
  1,071
  1,148
  1,228
  1,312
  1,398
  1,489
Earnings before tax, $m
  61
  -20
  -33
  -48
  -67
  -88
  -113
  -140
  -170
  -204
  -240
  -279
  -321
  -366
  -414
  -464
  -517
  -573
  -630
  -691
  -754
  -820
  -888
  -959
  -1,033
  -1,110
  -1,190
  -1,272
  -1,359
  -1,448
  -1,541
Tax expense, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  43
  -20
  -33
  -48
  -67
  -88
  -113
  -140
  -170
  -204
  -240
  -279
  -321
  -366
  -414
  -464
  -517
  -573
  -630
  -691
  -754
  -820
  -888
  -959
  -1,033
  -1,110
  -1,190
  -1,272
  -1,359
  -1,448
  -1,541

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,180
  1,475
  1,888
  2,374
  2,936
  3,576
  4,295
  5,094
  5,973
  6,929
  7,963
  9,072
  10,255
  11,509
  12,833
  14,226
  15,687
  17,216
  18,812
  20,475
  22,207
  24,008
  25,881
  27,828
  29,851
  31,953
  34,138
  36,409
  38,772
  41,230
  43,788
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,129
  1,475
  1,888
  2,374
  2,936
  3,576
  4,295
  5,094
  5,973
  6,929
  7,963
  9,072
  10,255
  11,509
  12,833
  14,226
  15,687
  17,216
  18,812
  20,475
  22,207
  24,008
  25,881
  27,828
  29,851
  31,953
  34,138
  36,409
  38,772
  41,230
  43,788
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.208
  1.207
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
Average production assets, $m
  432
  565
  723
  909
  1,124
  1,369
  1,645
  1,951
  2,287
  2,654
  3,049
  3,474
  3,927
  4,407
  4,914
  5,448
  6,007
  6,593
  7,204
  7,841
  8,504
  9,194
  9,911
  10,656
  11,431
  12,236
  13,073
  13,942
  14,847
  15,788
  16,768
Working capital, $m
  468
  550
  705
  886
  1,096
  1,335
  1,603
  1,902
  2,229
  2,587
  2,972
  3,386
  3,828
  4,296
  4,790
  5,310
  5,856
  6,426
  7,022
  7,643
  8,289
  8,962
  9,661
  10,387
  11,142
  11,927
  12,743
  13,591
  14,472
  15,390
  16,345
Total debt, $m
  339
  574
  861
  1,197
  1,586
  2,028
  2,526
  3,079
  3,687
  4,349
  5,065
  5,832
  6,650
  7,518
  8,434
  9,399
  10,410
  11,467
  12,572
  13,723
  14,921
  16,168
  17,464
  18,811
  20,211
  21,665
  23,177
  24,749
  26,384
  28,085
  29,856
Total liabilities, $m
  785
  1,020
  1,307
  1,643
  2,032
  2,474
  2,972
  3,525
  4,133
  4,795
  5,511
  6,278
  7,096
  7,964
  8,880
  9,845
  10,856
  11,913
  13,018
  14,169
  15,367
  16,614
  17,910
  19,257
  20,657
  22,111
  23,623
  25,195
  26,830
  28,531
  30,302
Total equity, $m
  395
  454
  582
  731
  904
  1,101
  1,323
  1,569
  1,840
  2,134
  2,453
  2,794
  3,158
  3,545
  3,953
  4,382
  4,832
  5,303
  5,794
  6,306
  6,840
  7,395
  7,971
  8,571
  9,194
  9,841
  10,514
  11,214
  11,942
  12,699
  13,487
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,180
  1,474
  1,889
  2,374
  2,936
  3,575
  4,295
  5,094
  5,973
  6,929
  7,964
  9,072
  10,254
  11,509
  12,833
  14,227
  15,688
  17,216
  18,812
  20,475
  22,207
  24,009
  25,881
  27,828
  29,851
  31,952
  34,137
  36,409
  38,772
  41,230
  43,789
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.858
  1.260
  1.480
  1.640
  1.750
  1.840
  1.910
  1.960
  2.000
  2.040
  2.060
  2.090
  2.110
  2.120
  2.130
  2.140
  2.150
  2.160
  2.170
  2.180
  2.180
  2.190
  2.190
  2.190
  2.200
  2.200
  2.200
  2.210
  2.210
  2.210
  2.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.305
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  -20
  -33
  -48
  -67
  -88
  -113
  -140
  -170
  -204
  -240
  -279
  -321
  -366
  -414
  -464
  -517
  -573
  -630
  -691
  -754
  -820
  -888
  -959
  -1,033
  -1,110
  -1,190
  -1,272
  -1,359
  -1,448
  -1,541
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  54
  69
  87
  107
  130
  157
  186
  218
  253
  290
  331
  374
  420
  468
  519
  572
  628
  686
  747
  810
  876
  944
  1,015
  1,089
  1,165
  1,245
  1,328
  1,414
  1,504
  1,597
Funds from operations, $m
  76
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  51
  53
  53
  54
  55
  55
  55
  56
  56
  56
  56
  56
  56
  56
  56
  56
  55
  55
  55
  56
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  129
  154
  181
  210
  239
  269
  298
  328
  357
  386
  414
  441
  468
  494
  520
  545
  571
  596
  621
  646
  672
  699
  727
  755
  785
  816
  848
  882
  918
  955
Cash from operations, $m
  90
  -95
  -118
  -143
  -170
  -197
  -225
  -253
  -280
  -308
  -336
  -362
  -389
  -415
  -440
  -465
  -490
  -515
  -540
  -565
  -591
  -617
  -643
  -671
  -699
  -729
  -760
  -792
  -826
  -862
  -899
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -41
  -54
  -69
  -87
  -107
  -130
  -157
  -186
  -218
  -253
  -290
  -331
  -374
  -420
  -468
  -519
  -572
  -628
  -686
  -747
  -810
  -876
  -944
  -1,015
  -1,089
  -1,165
  -1,245
  -1,328
  -1,414
  -1,504
New CAPEX, $m
  -53
  -133
  -158
  -186
  -215
  -245
  -275
  -306
  -336
  -366
  -396
  -425
  -453
  -480
  -507
  -534
  -560
  -585
  -611
  -637
  -663
  -690
  -717
  -745
  -775
  -805
  -837
  -870
  -905
  -941
  -980
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -174
  -212
  -255
  -302
  -352
  -405
  -463
  -522
  -584
  -649
  -715
  -784
  -854
  -927
  -1,002
  -1,079
  -1,157
  -1,239
  -1,323
  -1,410
  -1,500
  -1,593
  -1,689
  -1,790
  -1,894
  -2,002
  -2,115
  -2,233
  -2,355
  -2,484
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  -269
  -330
  -398
  -471
  -549
  -630
  -715
  -803
  -892
  -984
  -1,078
  -1,173
  -1,269
  -1,367
  -1,467
  -1,569
  -1,673
  -1,779
  -1,888
  -2,001
  -2,116
  -2,236
  -2,360
  -2,489
  -2,623
  -2,762
  -2,907
  -3,059
  -3,217
  -3,383
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  239
  286
  336
  389
  443
  498
  553
  608
  662
  715
  767
  818
  868
  916
  964
  1,011
  1,058
  1,104
  1,151
  1,198
  1,247
  1,296
  1,347
  1,400
  1,455
  1,512
  1,572
  1,635
  1,701
  1,771
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  126
  160
  198
  240
  285
  334
  386
  441
  498
  559
  621
  686
  753
  822
  893
  967
  1,043
  1,122
  1,203
  1,288
  1,375
  1,465
  1,559
  1,656
  1,757
  1,862
  1,972
  2,086
  2,205
  2,329
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  365
  446
  534
  629
  728
  832
  939
  1,049
  1,160
  1,274
  1,388
  1,504
  1,621
  1,738
  1,857
  1,978
  2,101
  2,226
  2,354
  2,486
  2,622
  2,761
  2,906
  3,056
  3,212
  3,374
  3,544
  3,721
  3,906
  4,100
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  97
  116
  136
  157
  179
  202
  224
  246
  268
  290
  311
  331
  351
  371
  390
  410
  428
  447
  466
  485
  505
  525
  546
  567
  589
  612
  637
  662
  689
  717
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  67
  -126
  -160
  -198
  -240
  -285
  -334
  -386
  -441
  -498
  -559
  -621
  -686
  -753
  -822
  -893
  -967
  -1,043
  -1,122
  -1,203
  -1,288
  -1,375
  -1,465
  -1,559
  -1,656
  -1,757
  -1,862
  -1,972
  -2,086
  -2,205
  -2,329
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  18
  -44
  -62
  -83
  -106
  -133
  -162
  -195
  -230
  -269
  -310
  -354
  -401
  -451
  -503
  -558
  -615
  -675
  -737
  -802
  -870
  -940
  -1,013
  -1,089
  -1,168
  -1,250
  -1,335
  -1,424
  -1,516
  -1,612
Discount rate, %
 
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  17
  -39
  -51
  -63
  -74
  -85
  -94
  -101
  -106
  -109
  -109
  -108
  -104
  -98
  -91
  -83
  -73
  -64
  -55
  -46
  -37
  -30
  -23
  -18
  -13
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.2
  90.7
  86.6
  82.8
  79.3
  76.0
  73.1
  70.3
  67.7
  65.3
  63.1
  61.0
  59.0
  57.2
  55.4
  53.8
  52.2
  50.7
  49.2
  47.9
  46.6
  45.3
  44.1
  42.9
  41.8
  40.7
  39.7
  38.7
  37.7
  36.8

Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (Kronos) is a producer and marketer of titanium dioxide (TiO2) pigments, a base industrial product that is used in a range of applications. The Company, along with its distributors and agents, sells and provides technical services for its products with sales in Europe and North America. It offers its customers a portfolio of products that include TiO2 pigment grades under the Kronos brand, which provides a range of performance properties. It offers its products to domestic and international paint, plastics, decorative laminate and paper manufacturers. It ships TiO2 to its customers in either a powder or slurry form through rail, truck or ocean carrier. It sells and provides technical services for its products in three end use markets, which include coatings, plastics and paper. It produces TiO2 in two crystalline forms, which include rutile and anatase. Rutile TiO2 is manufactured using both a chloride production process and a sulfate production process.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kronos Worldwide (KRO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 64
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 74.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 84.8%
Total Debt to Equity 85.8%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Operating Margin 5.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 29.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -135.2%
Payout Ratio 162.8%

KRO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KRO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1364 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kronos Worldwide. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Kronos Worldwide. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KRO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 30.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for KRO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kronos Worldwide, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kronos Worldwide.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KRO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KRO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Kronos Worldwide.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kronos Worldwide. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KRO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KRO are equal to 31.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kronos Worldwide operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KRO is equal to 30.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $395 million for Kronos Worldwide - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 118.743 million for Kronos Worldwide is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kronos Worldwide at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.

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▶ Kronos Worldwide posts 3Q profit   [Nov-08-17 07:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ KRONOS WORLDWIDE, INC. ANNOUNCES QUARTERLY DIVIDEND   [Oct-25-17 04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ What is Behind Kronos Worldwide Incs (KRO) Superior ROE?   [Oct-17-17 12:51PM  Simply Wall St.]
Financial statements of KRO
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