Intrinsic value of Kronos Worldwide - KRO

Previous Close

$26.17

  Intrinsic Value

$0.85

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

  Value-price divergence*

-209%

Previous close

$26.17

 
Intrinsic value

$0.85

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-209%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KRO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.11
  23.90
  22.01
  20.31
  18.78
  17.40
  16.16
  15.04
  14.04
  13.14
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.34
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
Revenue, $m
  1,364
  1,690
  2,062
  2,481
  2,947
  3,459
  4,018
  4,623
  5,272
  5,964
  6,699
  7,476
  8,293
  9,150
  10,047
  10,984
  11,961
  12,978
  14,036
  15,136
  16,279
  17,467
  18,701
  19,984
  21,318
  22,706
  24,149
  25,652
  27,216
  28,846
  30,545
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,692
  2,064
  2,483
  2,950
  3,463
  4,022
  4,627
  5,277
  5,970
  6,706
  7,483
  8,301
  9,159
  10,057
  10,995
  11,973
  12,991
  14,050
  15,151
  16,295
  17,484
  18,720
  20,004
  21,340
  22,728
  24,173
  25,677
  27,243
  28,875
  30,576
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,283
  1,692
  2,064
  2,483
  2,950
  3,463
  4,022
  4,627
  5,277
  5,970
  6,706
  7,483
  8,301
  9,159
  10,057
  10,995
  11,973
  12,991
  14,050
  15,151
  16,295
  17,484
  18,720
  20,004
  21,340
  22,728
  24,173
  25,677
  27,243
  28,875
  30,576
Operating income, $m
  81
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
EBITDA, $m
  122
  49
  60
  72
  86
  101
  117
  135
  154
  174
  196
  218
  242
  267
  293
  321
  349
  379
  410
  442
  475
  510
  546
  583
  622
  663
  705
  749
  794
  842
  892
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  18
  28
  39
  52
  66
  81
  98
  117
  136
  157
  180
  203
  228
  254
  281
  310
  340
  370
  402
  436
  471
  507
  544
  583
  624
  666
  710
  755
  803
  852
Earnings before tax, $m
  61
  -19
  -30
  -41
  -55
  -69
  -85
  -103
  -122
  -142
  -164
  -187
  -212
  -237
  -264
  -292
  -322
  -352
  -384
  -418
  -452
  -488
  -525
  -564
  -604
  -646
  -690
  -735
  -782
  -832
  -883
Tax expense, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  43
  -19
  -30
  -41
  -55
  -69
  -85
  -103
  -122
  -142
  -164
  -187
  -212
  -237
  -264
  -292
  -322
  -352
  -384
  -418
  -452
  -488
  -525
  -564
  -604
  -646
  -690
  -735
  -782
  -832
  -883

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,180
  1,399
  1,707
  2,054
  2,439
  2,864
  3,326
  3,827
  4,364
  4,937
  5,546
  6,189
  6,865
  7,575
  8,317
  9,093
  9,901
  10,743
  11,619
  12,529
  13,476
  14,459
  15,481
  16,543
  17,648
  18,796
  19,991
  21,235
  22,530
  23,879
  25,286
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,129
  1,399
  1,707
  2,054
  2,439
  2,864
  3,326
  3,827
  4,364
  4,937
  5,546
  6,189
  6,865
  7,575
  8,317
  9,093
  9,901
  10,743
  11,619
  12,529
  13,476
  14,459
  15,481
  16,543
  17,648
  18,796
  19,991
  21,235
  22,530
  23,879
  25,286
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
Average production assets, $m
  432
  536
  654
  786
  934
  1,097
  1,274
  1,465
  1,671
  1,891
  2,124
  2,370
  2,629
  2,901
  3,185
  3,482
  3,792
  4,114
  4,449
  4,798
  5,160
  5,537
  5,928
  6,335
  6,758
  7,198
  7,655
  8,132
  8,627
  9,144
  9,683
Working capital, $m
  468
  522
  637
  767
  910
  1,069
  1,242
  1,428
  1,629
  1,843
  2,070
  2,310
  2,563
  2,827
  3,105
  3,394
  3,696
  4,010
  4,337
  4,677
  5,030
  5,397
  5,779
  6,175
  6,587
  7,016
  7,462
  7,926
  8,410
  8,913
  9,438
Total debt, $m
  339
  522
  735
  975
  1,242
  1,536
  1,856
  2,202
  2,574
  2,971
  3,392
  3,836
  4,305
  4,796
  5,310
  5,846
  6,406
  6,988
  7,594
  8,224
  8,879
  9,560
  10,267
  11,002
  11,766
  12,561
  13,388
  14,248
  15,145
  16,078
  17,052
Total liabilities, $m
  785
  968
  1,181
  1,421
  1,688
  1,982
  2,302
  2,648
  3,020
  3,417
  3,838
  4,282
  4,751
  5,242
  5,756
  6,292
  6,852
  7,434
  8,040
  8,670
  9,325
  10,006
  10,713
  11,448
  12,212
  13,007
  13,834
  14,694
  15,591
  16,524
  17,498
Total equity, $m
  395
  431
  526
  633
  751
  882
  1,025
  1,179
  1,344
  1,521
  1,708
  1,906
  2,114
  2,333
  2,562
  2,801
  3,050
  3,309
  3,579
  3,859
  4,151
  4,453
  4,768
  5,095
  5,436
  5,789
  6,157
  6,540
  6,939
  7,355
  7,788
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,180
  1,399
  1,707
  2,054
  2,439
  2,864
  3,327
  3,827
  4,364
  4,938
  5,546
  6,188
  6,865
  7,575
  8,318
  9,093
  9,902
  10,743
  11,619
  12,529
  13,476
  14,459
  15,481
  16,543
  17,648
  18,796
  19,991
  21,234
  22,530
  23,879
  25,286
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.858
  1.210
  1.400
  1.540
  1.650
  1.740
  1.810
  1.870
  1.910
  1.950
  1.990
  2.010
  2.040
  2.060
  2.070
  2.090
  2.100
  2.110
  2.120
  2.130
  2.140
  2.150
  2.150
  2.160
  2.160
  2.170
  2.170
  2.180
  2.180
  2.190
  2.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.305
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  -19
  -30
  -41
  -55
  -69
  -85
  -103
  -122
  -142
  -164
  -187
  -212
  -237
  -264
  -292
  -322
  -352
  -384
  -418
  -452
  -488
  -525
  -564
  -604
  -646
  -690
  -735
  -782
  -832
  -883
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  51
  62
  75
  89
  104
  121
  140
  159
  180
  202
  226
  250
  276
  303
  332
  361
  392
  424
  457
  491
  527
  565
  603
  644
  685
  729
  774
  822
  871
  922
Funds from operations, $m
  76
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  38
  38
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  101
  115
  129
  144
  158
  173
  187
  201
  214
  227
  240
  253
  265
  277
  289
  302
  314
  327
  340
  353
  367
  381
  396
  412
  429
  446
  464
  483
  504
  525
Cash from operations, $m
  90
  -69
  -82
  -96
  -110
  -123
  -137
  -150
  -163
  -176
  -189
  -201
  -214
  -226
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -301
  -314
  -328
  -342
  -357
  -373
  -389
  -407
  -425
  -444
  -464
  -486
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -41
  -51
  -62
  -75
  -89
  -104
  -121
  -140
  -159
  -180
  -202
  -226
  -250
  -276
  -303
  -332
  -361
  -392
  -424
  -457
  -491
  -527
  -565
  -603
  -644
  -685
  -729
  -774
  -822
  -871
New CAPEX, $m
  -53
  -104
  -118
  -133
  -148
  -163
  -177
  -192
  -206
  -220
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -272
  -284
  -297
  -310
  -322
  -335
  -349
  -362
  -377
  -391
  -407
  -423
  -440
  -458
  -476
  -496
  -517
  -539
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -145
  -169
  -195
  -223
  -252
  -281
  -313
  -346
  -379
  -413
  -448
  -485
  -522
  -560
  -600
  -642
  -683
  -727
  -773
  -819
  -868
  -918
  -972
  -1,026
  -1,084
  -1,143
  -1,205
  -1,270
  -1,339
  -1,410
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  -214
  -251
  -291
  -332
  -375
  -418
  -463
  -509
  -555
  -602
  -650
  -699
  -748
  -799
  -851
  -904
  -958
  -1,015
  -1,073
  -1,133
  -1,196
  -1,261
  -1,329
  -1,399
  -1,473
  -1,550
  -1,630
  -1,715
  -1,803
  -1,895
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  187
  213
  240
  267
  294
  320
  346
  372
  397
  421
  445
  468
  491
  514
  537
  559
  583
  606
  630
  655
  681
  707
  735
  764
  795
  827
  861
  896
  934
  973
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  102
  125
  148
  173
  200
  228
  257
  287
  319
  352
  385
  420
  456
  493
  531
  571
  612
  654
  698
  744
  791
  840
  891
  945
  1,000
  1,058
  1,118
  1,181
  1,247
  1,316
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  289
  338
  388
  440
  494
  548
  603
  659
  716
  773
  830
  888
  947
  1,007
  1,068
  1,130
  1,195
  1,260
  1,328
  1,399
  1,472
  1,547
  1,626
  1,709
  1,795
  1,885
  1,979
  2,077
  2,181
  2,289
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  75
  86
  97
  108
  119
  130
  140
  151
  161
  171
  180
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  286
  298
  309
  322
  335
  349
  363
  378
  394
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  67
  -102
  -125
  -148
  -173
  -200
  -228
  -257
  -287
  -319
  -352
  -385
  -420
  -456
  -493
  -531
  -571
  -612
  -654
  -698
  -744
  -791
  -840
  -891
  -945
  -1,000
  -1,058
  -1,118
  -1,181
  -1,247
  -1,316
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  20
  -38
  -51
  -65
  -81
  -98
  -117
  -137
  -158
  -181
  -205
  -230
  -257
  -285
  -314
  -344
  -376
  -409
  -443
  -478
  -515
  -554
  -594
  -635
  -678
  -723
  -770
  -818
  -869
  -922
Discount rate, %
 
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  19
  -34
  -42
  -50
  -57
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -73
  -73
  -72
  -70
  -67
  -62
  -57
  -51
  -45
  -39
  -33
  -27
  -22
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -8
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.3
  92.8
  89.5
  86.4
  83.5
  80.8
  78.2
  75.8
  73.5
  71.4
  69.3
  67.4
  65.5
  63.8
  62.1
  60.5
  59.0
  57.5
  56.0
  54.7
  53.3
  52.1
  50.8
  49.6
  48.5
  47.3
  46.2
  45.2
  44.1
  43.1

Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (Kronos) is a producer and marketer of titanium dioxide (TiO2) pigments, a base industrial product that is used in a range of applications. The Company, along with its distributors and agents, sells and provides technical services for its products with sales in Europe and North America. It offers its customers a portfolio of products that include TiO2 pigment grades under the Kronos brand, which provides a range of performance properties. It offers its products to domestic and international paint, plastics, decorative laminate and paper manufacturers. It ships TiO2 to its customers in either a powder or slurry form through rail, truck or ocean carrier. It sells and provides technical services for its products in three end use markets, which include coatings, plastics and paper. It produces TiO2 in two crystalline forms, which include rutile and anatase. Rutile TiO2 is manufactured using both a chloride production process and a sulfate production process.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kronos Worldwide (KRO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 70.5
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 7.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 33.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 82
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 84.8%
Total Debt to Equity 85.8%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Operating Margin 5.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 29.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -135.2%
Payout Ratio 162.8%

KRO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KRO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1364 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kronos Worldwide. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Kronos Worldwide. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KRO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for KRO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kronos Worldwide, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kronos Worldwide.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KRO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KRO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Kronos Worldwide.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kronos Worldwide. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KRO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KRO are equal to 31.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kronos Worldwide operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KRO is equal to 30.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $395 million for Kronos Worldwide - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 115.598 million for Kronos Worldwide is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kronos Worldwide at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.0 billion.

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Financial statements of KRO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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