Intrinsic value of KapStone Paper&Packaging - KS

Previous Close

$34.75

  Intrinsic Value

$17.16

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-51%

Previous close

$34.75

 
Intrinsic value

$17.16

 
Up/down potential

-51%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of KapStone Paper&Packaging (KS) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.33
  11.70
  11.03
  10.43
  9.88
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
Revenue, $m
  3,077
  3,437
  3,816
  4,214
  4,631
  5,066
  5,519
  5,992
  6,483
  6,995
  7,526
  8,078
  8,652
  9,248
  9,868
  10,513
  11,183
  11,881
  12,608
  13,365
  14,154
  14,977
  15,836
  16,732
  17,668
  18,646
  19,668
  20,737
  21,854
  23,024
  24,248
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,178
  3,521
  3,880
  4,257
  4,650
  5,060
  5,488
  5,932
  6,394
  6,874
  7,303
  7,822
  8,361
  8,921
  9,504
  10,110
  10,741
  11,398
  12,083
  12,796
  13,540
  14,317
  15,127
  15,973
  16,857
  17,781
  18,747
  19,758
  20,815
  21,921
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,907
  3,178
  3,521
  3,880
  4,257
  4,650
  5,060
  5,488
  5,932
  6,394
  6,874
  7,303
  7,822
  8,361
  8,921
  9,504
  10,110
  10,741
  11,398
  12,083
  12,796
  13,540
  14,317
  15,127
  15,973
  16,857
  17,781
  18,747
  19,758
  20,815
  21,921
Operating income, $m
  170
  259
  296
  334
  374
  415
  459
  504
  551
  600
  651
  775
  830
  887
  947
  1,009
  1,073
  1,140
  1,210
  1,282
  1,358
  1,437
  1,519
  1,605
  1,695
  1,789
  1,887
  1,990
  2,097
  2,209
  2,326
EBITDA, $m
  352
  475
  527
  582
  640
  700
  763
  828
  896
  966
  1,040
  1,116
  1,195
  1,278
  1,363
  1,452
  1,545
  1,642
  1,742
  1,847
  1,956
  2,069
  2,188
  2,312
  2,441
  2,576
  2,717
  2,865
  3,020
  3,181
  3,350
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  52
  62
  72
  82
  94
  105
  117
  130
  143
  157
  171
  186
  201
  217
  234
  251
  269
  287
  307
  327
  348
  370
  393
  417
  442
  468
  496
  524
  554
  585
Earnings before tax, $m
  128
  207
  234
  262
  291
  322
  354
  387
  422
  457
  495
  604
  644
  686
  730
  775
  822
  871
  922
  975
  1,031
  1,089
  1,149
  1,212
  1,278
  1,347
  1,419
  1,494
  1,573
  1,655
  1,741
Tax expense, $m
  42
  56
  63
  71
  79
  87
  96
  104
  114
  124
  134
  163
  174
  185
  197
  209
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
  294
  310
  327
  345
  364
  383
  403
  425
  447
  470
Net income, $m
  86
  151
  171
  191
  213
  235
  258
  283
  308
  334
  361
  441
  470
  501
  533
  566
  600
  636
  673
  712
  753
  795
  839
  885
  933
  983
  1,036
  1,091
  1,148
  1,208
  1,271

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,256
  3,603
  4,000
  4,417
  4,854
  5,310
  5,785
  6,281
  6,796
  7,332
  7,889
  8,467
  9,069
  9,694
  10,344
  11,019
  11,722
  12,454
  13,216
  14,010
  14,837
  15,700
  16,600
  17,539
  18,520
  19,545
  20,617
  21,737
  22,908
  24,134
  25,417
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,227
  3,603
  4,000
  4,417
  4,854
  5,310
  5,785
  6,281
  6,796
  7,332
  7,889
  8,467
  9,069
  9,694
  10,344
  11,019
  11,722
  12,454
  13,216
  14,010
  14,837
  15,700
  16,600
  17,539
  18,520
  19,545
  20,617
  21,737
  22,908
  24,134
  25,417
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
Average production assets, $m
  1,753
  1,959
  2,175
  2,402
  2,639
  2,887
  3,146
  3,415
  3,696
  3,987
  4,290
  4,604
  4,931
  5,271
  5,625
  5,992
  6,374
  6,772
  7,187
  7,618
  8,068
  8,537
  9,027
  9,537
  10,071
  10,628
  11,211
  11,820
  12,457
  13,124
  13,821
Working capital, $m
  428
  447
  496
  548
  602
  659
  718
  779
  843
  909
  978
  1,050
  1,125
  1,202
  1,283
  1,367
  1,454
  1,545
  1,639
  1,737
  1,840
  1,947
  2,059
  2,175
  2,297
  2,424
  2,557
  2,696
  2,841
  2,993
  3,152
Total debt, $m
  1,485
  1,759
  2,049
  2,353
  2,671
  3,004
  3,351
  3,712
  4,087
  4,478
  4,884
  5,306
  5,744
  6,200
  6,674
  7,166
  7,679
  8,212
  8,767
  9,346
  9,949
  10,578
  11,234
  11,919
  12,634
  13,382
  14,162
  14,979
  15,833
  16,727
  17,662
Total liabilities, $m
  2,352
  2,626
  2,916
  3,220
  3,538
  3,871
  4,218
  4,579
  4,954
  5,345
  5,751
  6,173
  6,611
  7,067
  7,541
  8,033
  8,546
  9,079
  9,634
  10,213
  10,816
  11,445
  12,101
  12,786
  13,501
  14,249
  15,029
  15,846
  16,700
  17,594
  18,529
Total equity, $m
  904
  976
  1,084
  1,197
  1,315
  1,439
  1,568
  1,702
  1,842
  1,987
  2,138
  2,295
  2,458
  2,627
  2,803
  2,986
  3,177
  3,375
  3,582
  3,797
  4,021
  4,255
  4,499
  4,753
  5,019
  5,297
  5,587
  5,891
  6,208
  6,540
  6,888
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,256
  3,602
  4,000
  4,417
  4,853
  5,310
  5,786
  6,281
  6,796
  7,332
  7,889
  8,468
  9,069
  9,694
  10,344
  11,019
  11,723
  12,454
  13,216
  14,010
  14,837
  15,700
  16,600
  17,539
  18,520
  19,546
  20,616
  21,737
  22,908
  24,134
  25,417
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.643
  1.800
  1.890
  1.970
  2.030
  2.090
  2.140
  2.180
  2.220
  2.250
  2.280
  2.310
  2.340
  2.360
  2.380
  2.400
  2.420
  2.430
  2.450
  2.460
  2.470
  2.490
  2.500
  2.510
  2.520
  2.530
  2.530
  2.540
  2.550
  2.560
  2.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  86
  151
  171
  191
  213
  235
  258
  283
  308
  334
  361
  441
  470
  501
  533
  566
  600
  636
  673
  712
  753
  795
  839
  885
  933
  983
  1,036
  1,091
  1,148
  1,208
  1,271
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  182
  216
  232
  249
  266
  284
  304
  324
  344
  366
  388
  341
  365
  390
  417
  444
  472
  502
  532
  564
  598
  632
  669
  706
  746
  787
  830
  876
  923
  972
  1,024
Funds from operations, $m
  294
  367
  403
  440
  479
  519
  562
  606
  652
  700
  750
  782
  836
  891
  949
  1,010
  1,072
  1,138
  1,206
  1,276
  1,350
  1,427
  1,508
  1,591
  1,679
  1,770
  1,866
  1,966
  2,071
  2,180
  2,295
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
Cash from operations, $m
  282
  320
  353
  388
  425
  463
  503
  545
  588
  633
  680
  710
  761
  814
  869
  926
  985
  1,047
  1,111
  1,178
  1,248
  1,320
  1,396
  1,475
  1,557
  1,643
  1,733
  1,827
  1,925
  2,028
  2,136
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -130
  -145
  -161
  -178
  -196
  -214
  -233
  -253
  -274
  -295
  -318
  -341
  -365
  -390
  -417
  -444
  -472
  -502
  -532
  -564
  -598
  -632
  -669
  -706
  -746
  -787
  -830
  -876
  -923
  -972
New CAPEX, $m
  -129
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -269
  -280
  -291
  -303
  -315
  -327
  -340
  -353
  -367
  -382
  -398
  -414
  -432
  -450
  -469
  -489
  -511
  -534
  -557
  -583
  -609
  -637
  -667
  -698
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -152
  -336
  -361
  -388
  -415
  -444
  -473
  -502
  -533
  -565
  -598
  -633
  -668
  -705
  -743
  -784
  -826
  -870
  -916
  -964
  -1,014
  -1,067
  -1,121
  -1,180
  -1,240
  -1,303
  -1,370
  -1,439
  -1,513
  -1,590
  -1,670
Free cash flow, $m
  130
  -16
  -8
  0
  9
  19
  30
  42
  55
  68
  82
  78
  93
  109
  125
  142
  159
  177
  195
  214
  233
  253
  274
  295
  317
  340
  363
  388
  413
  439
  466
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -67
  274
  290
  304
  318
  332
  347
  361
  376
  391
  406
  422
  438
  456
  474
  493
  512
  533
  555
  579
  603
  629
  656
  685
  715
  747
  781
  817
  854
  894
  935
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -69
  274
  290
  304
  318
  332
  347
  361
  376
  391
  406
  422
  438
  456
  474
  493
  512
  533
  555
  579
  603
  629
  656
  685
  715
  747
  781
  817
  854
  894
  935
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  62
  259
  282
  304
  328
  352
  377
  403
  431
  459
  488
  500
  531
  564
  599
  634
  672
  710
  751
  793
  837
  882
  930
  980
  1,033
  1,087
  1,144
  1,204
  1,267
  1,332
  1,401
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -59
  -101
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -234
  -244
  -255
  -266
  -278
  -290
  -304
  -317
  -332
  -348
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  186
  174
  191
  209
  228
  248
  269
  291
  314
  337
  343
  368
  395
  423
  451
  481
  512
  544
  578
  612
  649
  686
  726
  767
  809
  854
  901
  949
  1,000
  1,053
Discount rate, %
 
  9.10
  9.56
  10.03
  10.53
  11.06
  11.61
  12.19
  12.80
  13.44
  14.12
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.16
  18.02
  18.92
  19.86
  20.86
  21.90
  23.00
  24.15
  25.35
  26.62
  27.95
  29.35
  30.82
  32.36
  33.97
  35.67
  37.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  171
  145
  143
  140
  135
  128
  120
  111
  101
  90
  75
  65
  55
  46
  38
  30
  24
  18
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

KapStone Paper and Packaging Corporation is a producer of containerboard and the kraft paper in North America. The Company operates through two segments: Paper and Packaging, and Distribution. The Paper and Packaging segment manufactures and sells a range of containerboard, corrugated products and specialty paper for industrial and consumer markets. The Distribution segment, which operates under the Victory and Golden State Container trade names, provides its customers packaging solutions and services and distributes corrugated packaging materials and other specialty packaging products, which include stretch film, void fill, carton sealing tape and other specialty tapes. The Company produces a range of products ranging from basic corrugated shipping containers to specialized packaging. The Company also produces packaging for fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  KapStone Paper&Packaging (KS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 39
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 164.3%
Total Debt to Equity 164.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 3.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Equity 9.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
EBITDA Margin 10.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Operating Margin 5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 2.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Effective Tax Rate 32.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.8%
Payout Ratio 45.3%

KS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3077 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by KapStone Paper&Packaging. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of KapStone Paper&Packaging. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.1%, whose default value for KS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of KapStone Paper&Packaging, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of KapStone Paper&Packaging.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for KapStone Paper&Packaging.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for KapStone Paper&Packaging. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KS are equal to 57%.

Life of production assets of 13.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in KapStone Paper&Packaging operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KS is equal to 13%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $904 million for KapStone Paper&Packaging - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 97.84 million for KapStone Paper&Packaging is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of KapStone Paper&Packaging at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ These 3 Stocks Are Up 50% Already in 2018   [Feb-08-18 08:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ KapStone tops Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-07-18 07:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [04:55PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: Kapstone Paper & Packaging   [Jan-11-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Quants, Technicians Agree on KapStone Paper and Packaging   [Jan-09-18 03:53PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ KapStone misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Oct-25-17 07:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ KapStone Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ KapStone meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-26-17 10:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ KapStone Reports Second Quarter Results   [04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ North Charleston Mill Incident   [10:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ KapStone misses Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-26-17 06:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ KapStone Reports First Quarter Results   [04:15PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of KS
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