Intrinsic value of Kohl's Corporation - KSS

Previous Close

$47.51

  Intrinsic Value

$85.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+81%

Previous close

$47.51

 
Intrinsic value

$85.84

 
Up/down potential

+81%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of KSS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  19,477
  19,925
  20,437
  21,012
  21,649
  22,348
  23,109
  23,933
  24,820
  25,773
  26,792
  27,879
  29,037
  30,267
  31,573
  32,957
  34,421
  35,970
  37,607
  39,335
  41,158
  43,081
  45,107
  47,243
  49,492
  51,860
  54,353
  56,975
  59,735
  62,637
Variable operating expenses, $m
  8,375
  8,568
  8,788
  9,035
  9,309
  9,610
  9,937
  10,291
  10,673
  11,082
  11,521
  11,988
  12,486
  13,015
  13,576
  14,171
  14,801
  15,467
  16,171
  16,914
  17,698
  18,525
  19,396
  20,314
  21,282
  22,300
  23,372
  24,499
  25,686
  26,934
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  9,883
  10,100
  10,322
  10,549
  10,782
  11,019
  11,261
  11,509
  11,762
  12,021
  12,285
  12,556
  12,832
  13,114
  13,403
  13,697
  13,999
  14,307
  14,622
  14,943
  15,272
  15,608
  15,951
  16,302
  16,661
  17,027
  17,402
  17,785
  18,176
  18,576
Total operating expenses, $m
  18,258
  18,668
  19,110
  19,584
  20,091
  20,629
  21,198
  21,800
  22,435
  23,103
  23,806
  24,544
  25,318
  26,129
  26,979
  27,868
  28,800
  29,774
  30,793
  31,857
  32,970
  34,133
  35,347
  36,616
  37,943
  39,327
  40,774
  42,284
  43,862
  45,510
Operating income, $m
  1,219
  1,257
  1,327
  1,427
  1,558
  1,719
  1,911
  2,133
  2,385
  2,670
  2,986
  3,336
  3,719
  4,138
  4,594
  5,088
  5,621
  6,196
  6,814
  7,478
  8,188
  8,948
  9,760
  10,626
  11,550
  12,533
  13,579
  14,691
  15,873
  17,127
EBITDA, $m
  2,232
  2,293
  2,389
  2,520
  2,684
  2,882
  3,113
  3,377
  3,676
  4,010
  4,379
  4,785
  5,229
  5,712
  6,236
  6,802
  7,411
  8,067
  8,770
  9,523
  10,328
  11,188
  12,106
  13,083
  14,123
  15,229
  16,405
  17,654
  18,979
  20,384
Interest expense (income), $m
  299
  298
  308
  321
  335
  351
  368
  387
  408
  431
  455
  482
  510
  540
  572
  605
  641
  679
  720
  762
  808
  855
  905
  958
  1,014
  1,073
  1,135
  1,200
  1,269
  1,341
  1,417
Earnings before tax, $m
  921
  949
  1,006
  1,093
  1,208
  1,351
  1,524
  1,724
  1,955
  2,214
  2,504
  2,826
  3,180
  3,567
  3,989
  4,446
  4,942
  5,476
  6,052
  6,670
  7,333
  8,043
  8,802
  9,612
  10,477
  11,398
  12,379
  13,422
  14,532
  15,710
Tax expense, $m
  249
  256
  272
  295
  326
  365
  411
  466
  528
  598
  676
  763
  858
  963
  1,077
  1,201
  1,334
  1,479
  1,634
  1,801
  1,980
  2,172
  2,376
  2,595
  2,829
  3,077
  3,342
  3,624
  3,924
  4,242
Net income, $m
  672
  693
  734
  798
  882
  987
  1,112
  1,259
  1,427
  1,616
  1,828
  2,063
  2,321
  2,604
  2,912
  3,246
  3,608
  3,998
  4,418
  4,869
  5,353
  5,871
  6,425
  7,017
  7,648
  8,320
  9,037
  9,798
  10,608
  11,468

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  13,658
  13,973
  14,332
  14,735
  15,182
  15,672
  16,205
  16,783
  17,406
  18,074
  18,788
  19,551
  20,363
  21,225
  22,141
  23,111
  24,138
  25,225
  26,372
  27,584
  28,863
  30,211
  31,632
  33,130
  34,707
  36,367
  38,115
  39,955
  41,890
  43,925
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  13,658
  13,973
  14,332
  14,735
  15,182
  15,672
  16,205
  16,783
  17,406
  18,074
  18,788
  19,551
  20,363
  21,225
  22,141
  23,111
  24,138
  25,225
  26,372
  27,584
  28,863
  30,211
  31,632
  33,130
  34,707
  36,367
  38,115
  39,955
  41,890
  43,925
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
  1.426
Average production assets, $m
  8,102
  8,289
  8,502
  8,741
  9,006
  9,297
  9,613
  9,956
  10,325
  10,722
  11,145
  11,598
  12,079
  12,591
  13,134
  13,710
  14,319
  14,964
  15,644
  16,363
  17,122
  17,922
  18,765
  19,653
  20,589
  21,574
  22,611
  23,702
  24,850
  26,057
Working capital, $m
  1,519
  1,554
  1,594
  1,639
  1,689
  1,743
  1,802
  1,867
  1,936
  2,010
  2,090
  2,175
  2,265
  2,361
  2,463
  2,571
  2,685
  2,806
  2,933
  3,068
  3,210
  3,360
  3,518
  3,685
  3,860
  4,045
  4,239
  4,444
  4,659
  4,886
Total debt, $m
  4,671
  4,858
  5,071
  5,311
  5,577
  5,869
  6,186
  6,530
  6,900
  7,298
  7,723
  8,177
  8,660
  9,173
  9,718
  10,295
  10,906
  11,553
  12,235
  12,956
  13,717
  14,519
  15,365
  16,256
  17,195
  18,183
  19,223
  20,317
  21,468
  22,679
Total liabilities, $m
  8,127
  8,314
  8,527
  8,767
  9,033
  9,325
  9,642
  9,986
  10,356
  10,754
  11,179
  11,633
  12,116
  12,629
  13,174
  13,751
  14,362
  15,009
  15,691
  16,412
  17,173
  17,975
  18,821
  19,712
  20,651
  21,639
  22,679
  23,773
  24,924
  26,135
Total equity, $m
  5,532
  5,659
  5,804
  5,968
  6,149
  6,347
  6,563
  6,797
  7,049
  7,320
  7,609
  7,918
  8,247
  8,596
  8,967
  9,360
  9,776
  10,216
  10,681
  11,171
  11,689
  12,235
  12,811
  13,418
  14,056
  14,729
  15,437
  16,182
  16,965
  17,790
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  13,659
  13,973
  14,331
  14,735
  15,182
  15,672
  16,205
  16,783
  17,405
  18,074
  18,788
  19,551
  20,363
  21,225
  22,141
  23,111
  24,138
  25,225
  26,372
  27,583
  28,862
  30,210
  31,632
  33,130
  34,707
  36,368
  38,116
  39,955
  41,889
  43,925
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.840
  0.860
  0.870
  0.890
  0.910
  0.920
  0.940
  0.960
  0.980
  1.000
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  672
  693
  734
  798
  882
  987
  1,112
  1,259
  1,427
  1,616
  1,828
  2,063
  2,321
  2,604
  2,912
  3,246
  3,608
  3,998
  4,418
  4,869
  5,353
  5,871
  6,425
  7,017
  7,648
  8,320
  9,037
  9,798
  10,608
  11,468
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,013
  1,036
  1,063
  1,093
  1,126
  1,162
  1,202
  1,245
  1,291
  1,340
  1,393
  1,450
  1,510
  1,574
  1,642
  1,714
  1,790
  1,870
  1,956
  2,045
  2,140
  2,240
  2,346
  2,457
  2,574
  2,697
  2,826
  2,963
  3,106
  3,257
Funds from operations, $m
  1,685
  1,729
  1,797
  1,890
  2,007
  2,149
  2,314
  2,503
  2,717
  2,957
  3,221
  3,513
  3,831
  4,178
  4,553
  4,960
  5,397
  5,868
  6,373
  6,914
  7,493
  8,111
  8,771
  9,473
  10,222
  11,017
  11,863
  12,761
  13,714
  14,725
Change in working capital, $m
  30
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  175
  185
  194
  205
  215
  226
Cash from operations, $m
  1,655
  1,694
  1,757
  1,845
  1,958
  2,094
  2,255
  2,439
  2,648
  2,882
  3,142
  3,428
  3,741
  4,082
  4,452
  4,852
  5,283
  5,747
  6,246
  6,780
  7,351
  7,961
  8,613
  9,307
  10,046
  10,832
  11,668
  12,556
  13,499
  14,499
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -992
  -1,013
  -1,036
  -1,063
  -1,093
  -1,126
  -1,162
  -1,202
  -1,245
  -1,291
  -1,340
  -1,393
  -1,450
  -1,510
  -1,574
  -1,642
  -1,714
  -1,790
  -1,870
  -1,956
  -2,045
  -2,140
  -2,240
  -2,346
  -2,457
  -2,574
  -2,697
  -2,826
  -2,963
  -3,106
New CAPEX, $m
  -164
  -186
  -213
  -239
  -265
  -291
  -317
  -343
  -369
  -396
  -424
  -452
  -482
  -512
  -543
  -576
  -609
  -644
  -681
  -719
  -758
  -800
  -843
  -888
  -936
  -985
  -1,037
  -1,091
  -1,148
  -1,207
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,156
  -1,199
  -1,249
  -1,302
  -1,358
  -1,417
  -1,479
  -1,545
  -1,614
  -1,687
  -1,764
  -1,845
  -1,932
  -2,022
  -2,117
  -2,218
  -2,323
  -2,434
  -2,551
  -2,675
  -2,803
  -2,940
  -3,083
  -3,234
  -3,393
  -3,559
  -3,734
  -3,917
  -4,111
  -4,313
Free cash flow, $m
  499
  495
  508
  543
  600
  678
  776
  895
  1,034
  1,195
  1,378
  1,582
  1,809
  2,060
  2,335
  2,634
  2,960
  3,313
  3,694
  4,105
  4,547
  5,021
  5,529
  6,073
  6,654
  7,274
  7,935
  8,639
  9,388
  10,186
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  157
  187
  214
  240
  266
  292
  318
  344
  370
  397
  425
  454
  483
  513
  545
  577
  611
  646
  683
  721
  761
  802
  846
  891
  938
  988
  1,040
  1,094
  1,151
  1,211
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  157
  187
  214
  240
  266
  292
  318
  344
  370
  397
  425
  454
  483
  513
  545
  577
  611
  646
  683
  721
  761
  802
  846
  891
  938
  988
  1,040
  1,094
  1,151
  1,211
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  656
  681
  722
  783
  866
  969
  1,093
  1,238
  1,405
  1,593
  1,803
  2,036
  2,292
  2,573
  2,879
  3,212
  3,571
  3,959
  4,377
  4,826
  5,308
  5,824
  6,375
  6,964
  7,592
  8,262
  8,975
  9,733
  10,540
  11,397
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -113
  -127
  -145
  -163
  -181
  -199
  -216
  -234
  -252
  -271
  -289
  -309
  -329
  -349
  -371
  -393
  -416
  -440
  -465
  -491
  -518
  -546
  -576
  -606
  -639
  -673
  -708
  -745
  -784
  -824
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  543
  554
  576
  620
  685
  771
  877
  1,004
  1,153
  1,322
  1,514
  1,727
  1,964
  2,224
  2,509
  2,819
  3,155
  3,520
  3,913
  4,336
  4,790
  5,278
  5,799
  6,357
  6,954
  7,589
  8,267
  8,988
  9,756
  10,572
Discount rate, %
  4.60
  4.83
  5.07
  5.33
  5.59
  5.87
  6.16
  6.47
  6.80
  7.14
  7.49
  7.87
  8.26
  8.67
  9.11
  9.56
  10.04
  10.54
  11.07
  11.62
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.13
  14.84
  15.58
  16.36
  17.17
  18.03
  18.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  519
  504
  497
  504
  522
  547
  577
  608
  638
  664
  684
  696
  700
  694
  679
  654
  620
  579
  532
  481
  427
  372
  318
  267
  219
  176
  138
  106
  80
  58
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Kohl's Corporation (Kohl's) is an operator of department stores. The Company operates approximately 1,154 Kohl's department stores, a Website (www.Kohls.com), approximately 12 FILA outlets, and approximately three Off-Aisle clearance centers. The Company's stores and Website sell moderately-priced private label and national brand apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty and home products. The Company's Website includes merchandise that is available in its stores, as well as merchandise that is available only online. The Company's merchandise mix includes both national brands and private brands that are available only at Kohl's. The Company's private brands include Apt. 9, Croft & Barrow, Jumping Beans, SO and Sonoma Goods for Life. The Company's exclusive brands include Food Network, Jennifer Lopez, Marc Anthony, Rock & Republic and Simply Vera Vera Wang.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kohl's Corporation (KSS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.9
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 11.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 86.5%
Total Debt to Equity 89.1%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Total Capital 5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Equity 10.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
EBITDA Margin 11.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Operating Margin 6.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate 36.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Payout Ratio 64.4%

KSS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KSS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $19095 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kohl's Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Kohl's Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KSS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.6%, whose default value for KSS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kohl's Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kohl's Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KSS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 43%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $9670 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KSS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.6% for Kohl's Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kohl's Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KSS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KSS are equal to 41.6%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kohl's Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KSS is equal to 7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5419 million for Kohl's Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 165.196 million for Kohl's Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kohl's Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.8 billion.

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