Intrinsic value of Quaker Chemical - KWR

Previous Close

$195.92

  Intrinsic Value

$78.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

Previous close

$195.92

 
Intrinsic value

$78.84

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of KWR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  905
  993
  1,085
  1,181
  1,282
  1,386
  1,494
  1,607
  1,724
  1,845
  1,972
  2,103
  2,240
  2,382
  2,530
  2,684
  2,844
  3,012
  3,186
  3,368
  3,558
  3,757
  3,964
  4,181
  4,408
  4,645
  4,893
  5,153
  5,425
  5,710
Variable operating expenses, $m
  799
  875
  955
  1,039
  1,125
  1,215
  1,309
  1,407
  1,508
  1,613
  1,707
  1,821
  1,939
  2,062
  2,190
  2,323
  2,462
  2,607
  2,758
  2,916
  3,081
  3,253
  3,432
  3,620
  3,816
  4,022
  4,237
  4,461
  4,697
  4,943
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  799
  875
  955
  1,039
  1,125
  1,215
  1,309
  1,407
  1,508
  1,613
  1,707
  1,821
  1,939
  2,062
  2,190
  2,323
  2,462
  2,607
  2,758
  2,916
  3,081
  3,253
  3,432
  3,620
  3,816
  4,022
  4,237
  4,461
  4,697
  4,943
Operating income, $m
  106
  118
  130
  143
  156
  170
  185
  200
  216
  232
  265
  282
  301
  320
  340
  360
  382
  404
  428
  452
  478
  504
  532
  561
  592
  623
  657
  692
  728
  766
EBITDA, $m
  136
  150
  164
  178
  193
  209
  225
  242
  260
  278
  297
  317
  338
  359
  381
  405
  429
  454
  480
  508
  536
  566
  598
  630
  665
  700
  738
  777
  818
  861
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
Earnings before tax, $m
  102
  112
  122
  133
  144
  156
  168
  181
  194
  208
  238
  253
  268
  284
  301
  318
  336
  355
  375
  395
  417
  439
  463
  487
  513
  539
  567
  597
  627
  660
Tax expense, $m
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
Net income, $m
  74
  82
  89
  97
  105
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  174
  184
  196
  207
  220
  232
  245
  259
  274
  289
  304
  321
  338
  356
  374
  394
  414
  436
  458
  482

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  797
  875
  956
  1,041
  1,129
  1,221
  1,316
  1,416
  1,519
  1,626
  1,737
  1,853
  1,973
  2,098
  2,229
  2,364
  2,506
  2,653
  2,807
  2,968
  3,135
  3,310
  3,493
  3,684
  3,884
  4,093
  4,311
  4,540
  4,780
  5,031
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  797
  875
  956
  1,041
  1,129
  1,221
  1,316
  1,416
  1,519
  1,626
  1,737
  1,853
  1,973
  2,098
  2,229
  2,364
  2,506
  2,653
  2,807
  2,968
  3,135
  3,310
  3,493
  3,684
  3,884
  4,093
  4,311
  4,540
  4,780
  5,031
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.136
  1.135
  1.135
  1.134
  1.136
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
  1.135
Average production assets, $m
  181
  199
  217
  236
  256
  277
  299
  321
  345
  369
  394
  421
  448
  476
  506
  537
  569
  602
  637
  674
  712
  751
  793
  836
  882
  929
  979
  1,031
  1,085
  1,142
Working capital, $m
  184
  202
  220
  240
  260
  281
  303
  326
  350
  375
  400
  427
  455
  483
  514
  545
  577
  611
  647
  684
  722
  763
  805
  849
  895
  943
  993
  1,046
  1,101
  1,159
Total debt, $m
  100
  134
  169
  206
  245
  285
  327
  370
  415
  462
  510
  561
  614
  668
  725
  785
  846
  911
  978
  1,048
  1,121
  1,198
  1,278
  1,361
  1,449
  1,540
  1,635
  1,735
  1,840
  1,950
Total liabilities, $m
  348
  382
  418
  455
  493
  534
  575
  619
  664
  710
  759
  810
  862
  917
  974
  1,033
  1,095
  1,160
  1,227
  1,297
  1,370
  1,446
  1,526
  1,610
  1,697
  1,788
  1,884
  1,984
  2,089
  2,198
Total equity, $m
  449
  493
  538
  586
  636
  687
  741
  797
  855
  915
  978
  1,043
  1,111
  1,181
  1,255
  1,331
  1,411
  1,494
  1,580
  1,671
  1,765
  1,864
  1,966
  2,074
  2,187
  2,304
  2,427
  2,556
  2,691
  2,832
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  797
  875
  956
  1,041
  1,129
  1,221
  1,316
  1,416
  1,519
  1,625
  1,737
  1,853
  1,973
  2,098
  2,229
  2,364
  2,506
  2,654
  2,807
  2,968
  3,135
  3,310
  3,492
  3,684
  3,884
  4,092
  4,311
  4,540
  4,780
  5,030
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.220
  0.270
  0.310
  0.350
  0.390
  0.410
  0.440
  0.460
  0.490
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  74
  82
  89
  97
  105
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  174
  184
  196
  207
  220
  232
  245
  259
  274
  289
  304
  321
  338
  356
  374
  394
  414
  436
  458
  482
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
Funds from operations, $m
  105
  114
  123
  132
  142
  153
  163
  174
  186
  198
  206
  219
  233
  247
  261
  277
  292
  309
  326
  344
  363
  383
  403
  425
  447
  471
  495
  521
  548
  576
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
Cash from operations, $m
  88
  96
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  152
  162
  173
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  245
  260
  275
  291
  307
  324
  342
  361
  381
  401
  422
  445
  468
  493
  518
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -147
Free cash flow, $m
  57
  63
  69
  76
  82
  89
  97
  104
  112
  120
  125
  134
  143
  152
  162
  173
  183
  195
  206
  218
  231
  244
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  335
  353
  371
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  90
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  138
  148
  157
  167
  173
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  304
  320
  337
  355
  374
  393
  414
  435
  458
  481
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  49
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  99
  107
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  156
  166
  176
  187
  198
  210
  222
  235
  248
  261
  276
  291
  306
  323
  340
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  47
  49
  51
  54
  55
  56
  57
  57
  57
  56
  53
  51
  49
  46
  43
  40
  36
  32
  29
  25
  22
  18
  15
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Quaker Chemical Corporation is a provider of process fluids, chemical specialties, and technical expertise to a range of industries, including steel, aluminum, mining, aerospace, tube and pipe, cans and others. The Company's segments include North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), Asia/Pacific and South America. It develops, produces, and markets a range of formulated chemical specialty products and offers chemical management services. Its products and services include rolling lubricants (used by manufacturers of steel in the hot and cold rolling of steel and by manufacturers of aluminum in the hot rolling of aluminum); machining and grinding compounds (used by metalworking customers in cutting, shaping, and grinding metal parts, which require special treatment to enable them to tolerate the manufacturing process, achieve closer tolerance, and improve tool life), and hydraulic fluids (used by steel, metalworking, and other customers to operate hydraulic equipment).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Quaker Chemical (KWR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 42.7
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 6.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 35.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 40.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 89
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 16.1%
Total Debt to Equity 16.4%
Interest Coverage 43
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Total Capital 13.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Return On Equity 15.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
EBITDA Margin 14.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Operating Margin 11.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Net Profit Margin 8.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Effective Tax Rate 27.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
Payout Ratio 29.5%

KWR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KWR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $820.082 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Quaker Chemical. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Quaker Chemical. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KWR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KWR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Quaker Chemical, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Quaker Chemical.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KWR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KWR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for Quaker Chemical.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Quaker Chemical. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KWR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KWR are equal to 20%.

Life of production assets of 12.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Quaker Chemical operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KWR is equal to 20.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $406.918 million for Quaker Chemical - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.331 million for Quaker Chemical is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Quaker Chemical at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Quaker gains conditional EU okay to buy Houghton   [Dec-11-18 11:02AM  Reuters]
▶ Is Dana Incorporated (DAN) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-09-18 01:12PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Quaker Chemical Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-14-18 02:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Quaker Chemical: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Quaker Chemical Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-19-18 01:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Quaker Chemical Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Jul-31-18 06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Quaker Chemical: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 18th   [Jul-18-18 07:30AM  Zacks]
▶ Quaker Chemical Updates Timing on Houghton Combination   [Jul-09-18 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Top Growth Stocks This Week   [May-25-18 12:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Quaker Chemical Announces 4.2% Increase In Cash Dividend   [May-09-18 02:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Quaker Chemical: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-30-18 05:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Growth Stocks To Buy Today   [Apr-23-18 12:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Product Solutions to Suppress Dust and Reduce Downtime   [Apr-12-18 01:03PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Top Growth Stocks To Buy Now   [Mar-17-18 12:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Quaker Chemical Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Mar-01-18 06:45AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Quaker Chemical reports 4Q loss   [05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Quaker Chemical Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-27-18 02:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Quaker Acquires Remaining Stake of India Joint Venture   [Dec-26-17 08:28AM  Market Realist]
▶ Quaker Chemical Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-15-17 01:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Quaker Chemical Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Oct-27-17 06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Quaker Chemical beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Oct-26-17 07:28PM  Associated Press]

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