Intrinsic value of Lithia Motors Cl A - LAD

Previous Close

$87.46

  Intrinsic Value

$79.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-9%

Previous close

$87.46

 
Intrinsic value

$79.54

 
Up/down potential

-9%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of LAD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.50
  23.45
  21.61
  19.94
  18.45
  17.11
  15.89
  14.81
  13.82
  12.94
  12.15
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
Revenue, $m
  12,659
  15,627
  19,003
  22,793
  26,999
  31,617
  36,642
  42,067
  47,883
  54,080
  60,649
  67,583
  74,875
  82,521
  90,517
  98,863
  107,562
  116,617
  126,037
  135,829
  146,005
  156,581
  167,571
  178,994
  190,871
  203,223
  216,076
  229,456
  243,390
  257,910
Variable operating expenses, $m
  12,014
  14,821
  18,014
  21,598
  25,574
  29,941
  34,693
  39,823
  45,322
  51,182
  57,350
  63,907
  70,803
  78,032
  85,593
  93,486
  101,711
  110,274
  119,181
  128,440
  138,063
  148,063
  158,456
  169,258
  180,488
  192,169
  204,323
  216,974
  230,151
  243,881
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  104
  107
  109
  111
  114
  116
  119
  121
  124
  127
  130
  132
  135
  138
  141
  144
  148
  151
  154
  158
  161
  165
  168
  172
  176
  180
  184
  188
  192
  196
Total operating expenses, $m
  12,118
  14,928
  18,123
  21,709
  25,688
  30,057
  34,812
  39,944
  45,446
  51,309
  57,480
  64,039
  70,938
  78,170
  85,734
  93,630
  101,859
  110,425
  119,335
  128,598
  138,224
  148,228
  158,624
  169,430
  180,664
  192,349
  204,507
  217,162
  230,343
  244,077
Operating income, $m
  540
  699
  880
  1,084
  1,311
  1,559
  1,830
  2,123
  2,436
  2,771
  3,169
  3,544
  3,937
  4,350
  4,782
  5,233
  5,703
  6,192
  6,702
  7,231
  7,781
  8,353
  8,947
  9,564
  10,207
  10,875
  11,570
  12,294
  13,047
  13,833
EBITDA, $m
  646
  820
  1,018
  1,240
  1,487
  1,759
  2,054
  2,373
  2,715
  3,080
  3,467
  3,875
  4,305
  4,755
  5,226
  5,718
  6,231
  6,765
  7,320
  7,897
  8,497
  9,121
  9,769
  10,443
  11,143
  11,872
  12,630
  13,419
  14,242
  15,098
Interest expense (income), $m
  50
  160
  210
  267
  332
  405
  486
  575
  672
  777
  889
  1,008
  1,135
  1,269
  1,409
  1,557
  1,711
  1,872
  2,039
  2,214
  2,396
  2,584
  2,781
  2,984
  3,196
  3,417
  3,645
  3,884
  4,131
  4,389
  4,658
Earnings before tax, $m
  380
  489
  613
  752
  905
  1,073
  1,255
  1,450
  1,659
  1,882
  2,161
  2,409
  2,669
  2,941
  3,226
  3,522
  3,831
  4,153
  4,488
  4,835
  5,196
  5,572
  5,962
  6,368
  6,790
  7,229
  7,686
  8,162
  8,658
  9,175
Tax expense, $m
  103
  132
  166
  203
  244
  290
  339
  392
  448
  508
  583
  650
  721
  794
  871
  951
  1,034
  1,121
  1,212
  1,305
  1,403
  1,504
  1,610
  1,719
  1,833
  1,952
  2,075
  2,204
  2,338
  2,477
Net income, $m
  277
  357
  448
  549
  661
  783
  916
  1,059
  1,211
  1,374
  1,578
  1,758
  1,948
  2,147
  2,355
  2,571
  2,797
  3,032
  3,276
  3,530
  3,793
  4,068
  4,352
  4,649
  4,957
  5,277
  5,611
  5,958
  6,320
  6,698

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,877
  7,255
  8,822
  10,582
  12,534
  14,678
  17,011
  19,530
  22,230
  25,107
  28,157
  31,376
  34,761
  38,311
  42,023
  45,898
  49,936
  54,140
  58,513
  63,059
  67,783
  72,693
  77,795
  83,098
  88,612
  94,347
  100,314
  106,525
  112,994
  119,735
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,877
  7,255
  8,822
  10,582
  12,534
  14,678
  17,011
  19,530
  22,230
  25,107
  28,157
  31,376
  34,761
  38,311
  42,023
  45,898
  49,936
  54,140
  58,513
  63,059
  67,783
  72,693
  77,795
  83,098
  88,612
  94,347
  100,314
  106,525
  112,994
  119,735
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
  2.154
Average production assets, $m
  1,658
  2,047
  2,489
  2,986
  3,537
  4,142
  4,800
  5,511
  6,273
  7,084
  7,945
  8,853
  9,809
  10,810
  11,858
  12,951
  14,091
  15,277
  16,511
  17,794
  19,127
  20,512
  21,952
  23,448
  25,004
  26,622
  28,306
  30,059
  31,884
  33,786
Working capital, $m
  2,962
  3,657
  4,447
  5,334
  6,318
  7,398
  8,574
  9,844
  11,205
  12,655
  14,192
  15,815
  17,521
  19,310
  21,181
  23,134
  25,170
  27,288
  29,493
  31,784
  34,165
  36,640
  39,212
  41,885
  44,664
  47,554
  50,562
  53,693
  56,953
  60,351
Total debt, $m
  3,886
  4,946
  6,151
  7,504
  9,005
  10,654
  12,448
  14,385
  16,461
  18,674
  21,019
  23,494
  26,098
  28,827
  31,682
  34,662
  37,767
  41,000
  44,363
  47,859
  51,492
  55,267
  59,191
  63,269
  67,509
  71,919
  76,508
  81,284
  86,259
  91,443
Total liabilities, $m
  4,519
  5,579
  6,784
  8,137
  9,639
  11,288
  13,082
  15,018
  17,095
  19,307
  21,652
  24,128
  26,731
  29,461
  32,315
  35,295
  38,401
  41,634
  44,996
  48,492
  52,125
  55,901
  59,824
  63,903
  68,143
  72,553
  77,141
  81,918
  86,893
  92,076
Total equity, $m
  1,358
  1,676
  2,038
  2,444
  2,895
  3,391
  3,930
  4,511
  5,135
  5,800
  6,504
  7,248
  8,030
  8,850
  9,707
  10,602
  11,535
  12,506
  13,516
  14,567
  15,658
  16,792
  17,971
  19,196
  20,469
  21,794
  23,172
  24,607
  26,102
  27,659
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,877
  7,255
  8,822
  10,581
  12,534
  14,679
  17,012
  19,529
  22,230
  25,107
  28,156
  31,376
  34,761
  38,311
  42,022
  45,897
  49,936
  54,140
  58,512
  63,059
  67,783
  72,693
  77,795
  83,099
  88,612
  94,347
  100,313
  106,525
  112,995
  119,735
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.860
  2.950
  3.020
  3.070
  3.110
  3.140
  3.170
  3.190
  3.210
  3.220
  3.230
  3.240
  3.250
  3.260
  3.260
  3.270
  3.270
  3.280
  3.280
  3.290
  3.290
  3.290
  3.290
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  277
  357
  448
  549
  661
  783
  916
  1,059
  1,211
  1,374
  1,578
  1,758
  1,948
  2,147
  2,355
  2,571
  2,797
  3,032
  3,276
  3,530
  3,793
  4,068
  4,352
  4,649
  4,957
  5,277
  5,611
  5,958
  6,320
  6,698
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  106
  121
  138
  156
  177
  199
  224
  251
  279
  310
  298
  332
  367
  405
  444
  485
  528
  572
  618
  666
  716
  768
  822
  878
  936
  997
  1,060
  1,126
  1,194
  1,265
Funds from operations, $m
  384
  478
  585
  705
  838
  983
  1,140
  1,309
  1,491
  1,683
  1,875
  2,090
  2,316
  2,552
  2,799
  3,056
  3,325
  3,604
  3,894
  4,196
  4,510
  4,836
  5,175
  5,527
  5,893
  6,274
  6,671
  7,084
  7,515
  7,963
Change in working capital, $m
  602
  695
  790
  887
  984
  1,081
  1,176
  1,269
  1,361
  1,450
  1,537
  1,623
  1,706
  1,789
  1,871
  1,953
  2,035
  2,119
  2,204
  2,291
  2,381
  2,475
  2,572
  2,673
  2,779
  2,890
  3,008
  3,131
  3,261
  3,398
Cash from operations, $m
  -218
  -216
  -205
  -182
  -146
  -98
  -36
  40
  130
  233
  338
  467
  609
  763
  928
  1,103
  1,289
  1,485
  1,690
  1,905
  2,128
  2,361
  2,603
  2,854
  3,114
  3,384
  3,664
  3,953
  4,254
  4,566
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -62
  -77
  -93
  -112
  -132
  -155
  -180
  -206
  -235
  -265
  -298
  -332
  -367
  -405
  -444
  -485
  -528
  -572
  -618
  -666
  -716
  -768
  -822
  -878
  -936
  -997
  -1,060
  -1,126
  -1,194
New CAPEX, $m
  -341
  -389
  -442
  -497
  -551
  -605
  -658
  -711
  -762
  -812
  -861
  -908
  -955
  -1,002
  -1,047
  -1,093
  -1,140
  -1,186
  -1,234
  -1,283
  -1,333
  -1,385
  -1,440
  -1,496
  -1,556
  -1,618
  -1,684
  -1,753
  -1,825
  -1,902
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -390
  -451
  -519
  -590
  -663
  -737
  -813
  -891
  -968
  -1,047
  -1,126
  -1,206
  -1,287
  -1,369
  -1,452
  -1,537
  -1,625
  -1,714
  -1,806
  -1,901
  -1,999
  -2,101
  -2,208
  -2,318
  -2,434
  -2,554
  -2,681
  -2,813
  -2,951
  -3,096
Free cash flow, $m
  -608
  -667
  -724
  -771
  -809
  -835
  -849
  -850
  -838
  -814
  -788
  -739
  -678
  -606
  -525
  -434
  -335
  -229
  -116
  4
  129
  259
  395
  535
  680
  829
  983
  1,141
  1,303
  1,469
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  919
  1,060
  1,205
  1,353
  1,501
  1,649
  1,794
  1,937
  2,076
  2,212
  2,345
  2,476
  2,603
  2,729
  2,855
  2,980
  3,106
  3,233
  3,363
  3,496
  3,633
  3,775
  3,924
  4,078
  4,240
  4,410
  4,589
  4,777
  4,975
  5,184
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  919
  1,060
  1,205
  1,353
  1,501
  1,649
  1,794
  1,937
  2,076
  2,212
  2,345
  2,476
  2,603
  2,729
  2,855
  2,980
  3,106
  3,233
  3,363
  3,496
  3,633
  3,775
  3,924
  4,078
  4,240
  4,410
  4,589
  4,777
  4,975
  5,184
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  311
  392
  482
  582
  692
  813
  945
  1,086
  1,238
  1,399
  1,557
  1,737
  1,926
  2,123
  2,330
  2,546
  2,770
  3,004
  3,247
  3,499
  3,762
  4,035
  4,319
  4,613
  4,920
  5,239
  5,571
  5,917
  6,277
  6,653
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -274
  -318
  -362
  -406
  -451
  -495
  -539
  -582
  -624
  -665
  -705
  -744
  -782
  -820
  -858
  -895
  -933
  -971
  -1,010
  -1,050
  -1,091
  -1,134
  -1,179
  -1,225
  -1,274
  -1,325
  -1,378
  -1,435
  -1,494
  -1,557
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  37
  74
  120
  175
  241
  318
  406
  505
  614
  734
  853
  993
  1,144
  1,304
  1,473
  1,651
  1,837
  2,033
  2,237
  2,449
  2,671
  2,901
  3,140
  3,388
  3,646
  3,915
  4,193
  4,482
  4,783
  5,096
Discount rate, %
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.84
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.47
  21.50
  22.57
  23.70
  24.88
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
  30.25
  31.76
  33.35
  35.02
  36.77
  38.60
  40.53
  42.56
  44.69
  46.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  33
  59
  84
  107
  126
  141
  150
  153
  151
  144
  131
  117
  102
  85
  70
  55
  42
  31
  22
  15
  10
  7
  4
  3
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Lithia Motors, Inc. is an operator of automotive franchises and a retailer of new and used vehicles and related services. As of February 28, 2017, it offered 30 brands of new vehicles and all brands of used vehicles in 154 stores in the United States and online at Lithia.com, DCHauto.com and CarboneCars.com. It operates through three segments: Domestic, Import and Luxury. Its Domestic segment consists of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured by Chrysler, General Motors and Ford. Its Import segment consists of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured primarily by Honda, Toyota, Subaru, Nissan and Volkswagen. Its Luxury segment consists of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured primarily by BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus. The franchises in each segment also sell used vehicles, parts and automotive services, and automotive finance and insurance products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lithia Motors Cl A (LAD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.2
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -157.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 21.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 84.4%
Total Debt to Equity 262.6%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Total Capital 6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Equity 22.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.4%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
EBITDA Margin 4.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Net Profit Margin 2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Effective Tax Rate 30.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.2%
Payout Ratio 12.2%

LAD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LAD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $10086.51 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lithia Motors Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Lithia Motors Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LAD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.4%, whose default value for LAD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lithia Motors Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lithia Motors Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LAD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $102 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LAD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Lithia Motors Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lithia Motors Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LAD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LAD are equal to 13.1%.

Life of production assets of 26.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lithia Motors Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LAD is equal to 23.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1083.218 million for Lithia Motors Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.206 million for Lithia Motors Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lithia Motors Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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