Intrinsic value of Lancaster Colony - LANC

Previous Close

$180.60

  Intrinsic Value

$70.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

Previous close

$180.60

 
Intrinsic value

$70.08

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LANC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,226
  1,254
  1,286
  1,322
  1,363
  1,407
  1,454
  1,506
  1,562
  1,622
  1,686
  1,755
  1,828
  1,905
  1,987
  2,074
  2,166
  2,264
  2,367
  2,476
  2,590
  2,712
  2,839
  2,973
  3,115
  3,264
  3,421
  3,586
  3,760
  3,942
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,035
  1,059
  1,085
  1,115
  1,148
  1,185
  1,224
  1,267
  1,313
  1,363
  1,393
  1,449
  1,510
  1,574
  1,641
  1,713
  1,790
  1,870
  1,955
  2,045
  2,140
  2,240
  2,345
  2,456
  2,573
  2,696
  2,826
  2,962
  3,106
  3,256
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,035
  1,059
  1,085
  1,115
  1,148
  1,185
  1,224
  1,267
  1,313
  1,363
  1,393
  1,449
  1,510
  1,574
  1,641
  1,713
  1,790
  1,870
  1,955
  2,045
  2,140
  2,240
  2,345
  2,456
  2,573
  2,696
  2,826
  2,962
  3,106
  3,256
Operating income, $m
  190
  195
  201
  207
  214
  222
  230
  239
  249
  259
  293
  305
  318
  331
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  686
EBITDA, $m
  232
  237
  243
  250
  258
  266
  275
  285
  295
  307
  319
  332
  346
  360
  376
  392
  410
  428
  447
  468
  490
  513
  537
  562
  589
  617
  647
  678
  711
  745
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
Earnings before tax, $m
  190
  195
  201
  207
  213
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  291
  302
  314
  328
  341
  356
  371
  388
  405
  423
  443
  463
  484
  507
  531
  556
  582
  610
  639
  670
Tax expense, $m
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
Net income, $m
  139
  143
  146
  151
  156
  161
  167
  173
  180
  188
  212
  221
  230
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  354
  370
  387
  406
  425
  445
  467
  489

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  663
  678
  696
  715
  737
  761
  787
  815
  845
  877
  912
  949
  988
  1,030
  1,075
  1,122
  1,172
  1,224
  1,280
  1,339
  1,401
  1,466
  1,535
  1,608
  1,685
  1,765
  1,850
  1,939
  2,033
  2,132
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  663
  678
  696
  715
  737
  761
  787
  815
  845
  877
  912
  949
  988
  1,030
  1,075
  1,122
  1,172
  1,224
  1,280
  1,339
  1,401
  1,466
  1,535
  1,608
  1,685
  1,765
  1,850
  1,939
  2,033
  2,132
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.849
  1.850
  1.848
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.848
  1.848
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.850
  1.850
  1.848
  1.848
  1.848
  1.850
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.850
  1.850
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
Average production assets, $m
  284
  291
  298
  307
  316
  326
  337
  349
  362
  376
  391
  407
  424
  442
  461
  481
  503
  525
  549
  574
  601
  629
  659
  690
  723
  757
  794
  832
  872
  915
Working capital, $m
  83
  85
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
Total debt, $m
  3
  6
  10
  14
  19
  24
  29
  36
  42
  49
  57
  65
  73
  82
  92
  102
  113
  124
  136
  149
  162
  176
  191
  207
  223
  241
  259
  278
  299
  320
Total liabilities, $m
  143
  147
  150
  154
  159
  164
  170
  176
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  223
  232
  242
  253
  264
  277
  289
  303
  317
  332
  347
  364
  381
  400
  419
  439
  461
Total equity, $m
  520
  532
  545
  561
  578
  596
  617
  639
  662
  688
  715
  744
  775
  808
  843
  880
  919
  960
  1,004
  1,050
  1,098
  1,150
  1,204
  1,261
  1,321
  1,384
  1,451
  1,521
  1,594
  1,672
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  663
  679
  695
  715
  737
  760
  787
  815
  844
  877
  912
  949
  988
  1,031
  1,075
  1,122
  1,172
  1,224
  1,281
  1,339
  1,401
  1,467
  1,536
  1,608
  1,685
  1,765
  1,851
  1,940
  2,033
  2,133
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  139
  143
  146
  151
  156
  161
  167
  173
  180
  188
  212
  221
  230
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  354
  370
  387
  406
  425
  445
  467
  489
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  42
  42
  43
  43
  44
  45
  46
  46
  47
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
Funds from operations, $m
  180
  184
  189
  194
  199
  205
  212
  219
  227
  235
  238
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  304
  317
  331
  346
  362
  379
  396
  415
  434
  455
  477
  499
  523
  548
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  179
  182
  186
  191
  196
  202
  209
  215
  223
  231
  233
  242
  252
  263
  274
  285
  298
  311
  324
  339
  354
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  536
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
Free cash flow, $m
  155
  157
  160
  163
  167
  172
  176
  182
  187
  193
  194
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  278
  290
  304
  317
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  159
  161
  164
  168
  172
  177
  182
  188
  194
  200
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  245
  256
  267
  278
  291
  304
  318
  332
  348
  364
  381
  399
  417
  437
  458
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  214
  149
  150
  152
  155
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  174
  180
  186
  193
  201
  208
  217
  225
  235
  245
  255
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  332
  347
  364
  381
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  206
  136
  131
  125
  120
  115
  109
  104
  98
  92
  83
  77
  71
  65
  59
  53
  47
  42
  36
  31
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Lancaster Colony Corporation is a manufacturer and marketer of specialty food products for the retail and foodservice channels. The Company's food products include Salad dressings and sauces, Vegetable dips and fruit dips, Frozen garlic breads, Frozen Parkerhouse style yeast rolls and dinner rolls, Premium dry egg noodles, Frozen specialty noodles, Croutons and salad toppings, Flatbread wraps and pizza crusts, and Caviar. Its brands include Marzetti, Marzetti Simply Dressed, Cardini's, Girard's, Katherine's Kitchen, New York BRAND Bakery, Mamma Bella's, Sister Schubert's, Mary B's, Inn Maid, Amish Kitchen, Reames, Aunt Vi's, Flatout and Romanoff. It manufactures and sells other products pursuant to brand license agreements, including Olive Garden dressing, Jack Daniel's mustards and Hungry Girl flatbreads. A portion of its sales are dressing packets, frozen specialty noodles, pasta and flatbreads sold to industrial customers for use as ingredients or components in their products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lancaster Colony (LANC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 43.1
Price to Sales 4.1
Price to Book 8.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 34.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 42.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 58.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 17%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Return On Total Capital 21.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Return On Equity 21.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25%
EBITDA Margin 16.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Operating Margin 14.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Net Profit Margin 9.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Effective Tax Rate 34.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
Payout Ratio 51.3%

LANC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LANC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1201.842 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lancaster Colony. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Lancaster Colony. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LANC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LANC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lancaster Colony, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lancaster Colony.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LANC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LANC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Lancaster Colony.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lancaster Colony. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LANC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LANC are equal to 23.2%.

Life of production assets of 15.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lancaster Colony operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LANC is equal to 6.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $575.977 million for Lancaster Colony - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.478 million for Lancaster Colony is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lancaster Colony at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Former P&G executive hired as president of Marzetti foods   [Nov-02-18 10:46AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Lancaster Colony: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Oct-25-18 07:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mini-bagel innovator gets gobbled up by Lancaster Colony   [Oct-23-18 11:16AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Lancaster Colony Acquires Bantam Bagels, LLC   [Oct-22-18 04:02PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Lancaster Colony: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-23-18 07:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lancaster Colony Continues Higher Cash Dividend   [May-24-18 10:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Lancaster Colony: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 09:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lancaster Colony Continues Higher Cash Dividend   [Feb-28-18 01:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Marzetti owner still hungry for acquisitions, if the deals are right   [Feb-12-18 03:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Garlic bread and salad dressing maker sees tax change benefits   [Jan-25-18 11:40AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Lancaster Colony posts 2Q profit   [07:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Nike Inc Leads 5 Dividend Stocks Boosting Payouts   [Nov-17-17 01:38PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Lancaster Colony posts 1Q profit   [Oct-26-17 08:30AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 2nd   [Oct-02-17 08:15AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for September 21st   [Sep-21-17 08:07AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for September 15th   [Sep-15-17 08:16AM  Zacks]
▶ Lancaster Colony posts 4Q profit   [Aug-17-17 10:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Lancaster Colony CEO on what Amazon's purchase of Whole Foods means for the industry   [Jul-06-17 01:35PM  American City Business Journals]

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