Intrinsic value of L Brands, Inc. - LB

Previous Close

$26.50

  Intrinsic Value

$20.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-23%

Previous close

$26.50

 
Intrinsic value

$20.52

 
Up/down potential

-23%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  13,390
  14,180
  15,004
  15,863
  16,761
  17,698
  18,677
  19,700
  20,769
  21,888
  23,059
  24,284
  25,567
  26,911
  28,318
  29,792
  31,337
  32,956
  34,653
  36,433
  38,298
  40,255
  42,308
  44,461
  46,719
  49,089
  51,575
  54,183
  56,921
  59,794
Variable operating expenses, $m
  11,250
  11,904
  12,585
  13,296
  14,038
  14,813
  15,623
  16,469
  17,354
  18,279
  19,072
  20,085
  21,146
  22,257
  23,421
  24,640
  25,918
  27,257
  28,661
  30,132
  31,676
  33,294
  34,992
  36,772
  38,640
  40,600
  42,656
  44,814
  47,078
  49,454
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  11,250
  11,904
  12,585
  13,296
  14,038
  14,813
  15,623
  16,469
  17,354
  18,279
  19,072
  20,085
  21,146
  22,257
  23,421
  24,640
  25,918
  27,257
  28,661
  30,132
  31,676
  33,294
  34,992
  36,772
  38,640
  40,600
  42,656
  44,814
  47,078
  49,454
Operating income, $m
  2,140
  2,276
  2,419
  2,567
  2,722
  2,884
  3,054
  3,231
  3,416
  3,609
  3,988
  4,199
  4,421
  4,654
  4,897
  5,152
  5,419
  5,699
  5,992
  6,300
  6,623
  6,961
  7,316
  7,688
  8,079
  8,489
  8,919
  9,370
  9,843
  10,340
EBITDA, $m
  2,806
  2,971
  3,144
  3,324
  3,512
  3,709
  3,914
  4,128
  4,352
  4,587
  4,832
  5,089
  5,358
  5,639
  5,934
  6,243
  6,567
  6,906
  7,262
  7,634
  8,025
  8,435
  8,866
  9,317
  9,790
  10,287
  10,807
  11,354
  11,928
  12,530
Interest expense (income), $m
  387
  406
  327
  359
  392
  427
  464
  502
  542
  583
  627
  672
  720
  769
  822
  876
  933
  993
  1,056
  1,122
  1,191
  1,263
  1,339
  1,419
  1,502
  1,590
  1,681
  1,778
  1,879
  1,985
  2,096
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,734
  1,949
  2,060
  2,175
  2,295
  2,421
  2,552
  2,689
  2,833
  2,983
  3,315
  3,480
  3,652
  3,832
  4,021
  4,218
  4,426
  4,643
  4,870
  5,109
  5,360
  5,622
  5,897
  6,186
  6,489
  6,807
  7,141
  7,491
  7,858
  8,244
Tax expense, $m
  468
  526
  556
  587
  620
  654
  689
  726
  765
  805
  895
  940
  986
  1,035
  1,086
  1,139
  1,195
  1,254
  1,315
  1,379
  1,447
  1,518
  1,592
  1,670
  1,752
  1,838
  1,928
  2,023
  2,122
  2,226
Net income, $m
  1,266
  1,423
  1,504
  1,588
  1,676
  1,767
  1,863
  1,963
  2,068
  2,177
  2,420
  2,540
  2,666
  2,797
  2,935
  3,079
  3,231
  3,389
  3,555
  3,730
  3,912
  4,104
  4,305
  4,516
  4,737
  4,969
  5,213
  5,468
  5,737
  6,018

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,639
  9,148
  9,680
  10,234
  10,813
  11,418
  12,049
  12,709
  13,400
  14,122
  14,877
  15,667
  16,495
  17,362
  18,269
  19,221
  20,217
  21,262
  22,357
  23,505
  24,709
  25,971
  27,295
  28,684
  30,141
  31,670
  33,274
  34,957
  36,723
  38,577
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,639
  9,148
  9,680
  10,234
  10,813
  11,418
  12,049
  12,709
  13,400
  14,122
  14,877
  15,667
  16,495
  17,362
  18,269
  19,221
  20,217
  21,262
  22,357
  23,505
  24,709
  25,971
  27,295
  28,684
  30,141
  31,670
  33,274
  34,957
  36,723
  38,577
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
Average production assets, $m
  3,923
  4,155
  4,396
  4,648
  4,911
  5,185
  5,472
  5,772
  6,085
  6,413
  6,756
  7,115
  7,491
  7,885
  8,297
  8,729
  9,182
  9,656
  10,153
  10,675
  11,221
  11,795
  12,396
  13,027
  13,689
  14,383
  15,111
  15,876
  16,678
  17,520
Working capital, $m
  -174
  -184
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -332
  -350
  -368
  -387
  -407
  -428
  -450
  -474
  -498
  -523
  -550
  -578
  -607
  -638
  -670
  -704
  -740
  -777
Total debt, $m
  4,667
  5,126
  5,604
  6,103
  6,624
  7,168
  7,736
  8,331
  8,952
  9,601
  10,281
  10,993
  11,738
  12,518
  13,335
  14,191
  15,088
  16,028
  17,013
  18,046
  19,130
  20,266
  21,458
  22,708
  24,019
  25,395
  26,839
  28,353
  29,943
  31,611
Total liabilities, $m
  7,775
  8,234
  8,712
  9,211
  9,732
  10,276
  10,844
  11,439
  12,060
  12,709
  13,389
  14,101
  14,846
  15,626
  16,443
  17,299
  18,196
  19,136
  20,121
  21,154
  22,238
  23,374
  24,566
  25,816
  27,127
  28,503
  29,947
  31,461
  33,051
  34,719
Total equity, $m
  864
  915
  968
  1,023
  1,081
  1,142
  1,205
  1,271
  1,340
  1,412
  1,488
  1,567
  1,650
  1,736
  1,827
  1,922
  2,022
  2,126
  2,236
  2,350
  2,471
  2,597
  2,730
  2,868
  3,014
  3,167
  3,327
  3,496
  3,672
  3,858
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,639
  9,149
  9,680
  10,234
  10,813
  11,418
  12,049
  12,710
  13,400
  14,121
  14,877
  15,668
  16,496
  17,362
  18,270
  19,221
  20,218
  21,262
  22,357
  23,504
  24,709
  25,971
  27,296
  28,684
  30,141
  31,670
  33,274
  34,957
  36,723
  38,577
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.400
  5.600
  5.790
  5.960
  6.130
  6.280
  6.420
  6.550
  6.680
  6.800
  6.910
  7.020
  7.120
  7.210
  7.300
  7.380
  7.460
  7.540
  7.610
  7.680
  7.740
  7.800
  7.860
  7.920
  7.970
  8.020
  8.070
  8.110
  8.150
  8.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,266
  1,423
  1,504
  1,588
  1,676
  1,767
  1,863
  1,963
  2,068
  2,177
  2,420
  2,540
  2,666
  2,797
  2,935
  3,079
  3,231
  3,389
  3,555
  3,730
  3,912
  4,104
  4,305
  4,516
  4,737
  4,969
  5,213
  5,468
  5,737
  6,018
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  666
  695
  725
  757
  790
  824
  860
  897
  937
  978
  845
  889
  936
  986
  1,037
  1,091
  1,148
  1,207
  1,269
  1,334
  1,403
  1,474
  1,550
  1,628
  1,711
  1,798
  1,889
  1,984
  2,085
  2,190
Funds from operations, $m
  1,932
  2,118
  2,229
  2,345
  2,465
  2,591
  2,723
  2,860
  3,004
  3,155
  3,265
  3,430
  3,602
  3,783
  3,972
  4,171
  4,378
  4,596
  4,825
  5,064
  5,315
  5,578
  5,855
  6,144
  6,448
  6,767
  7,102
  7,453
  7,821
  8,208
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
Cash from operations, $m
  1,942
  2,129
  2,240
  2,356
  2,477
  2,603
  2,736
  2,874
  3,018
  3,169
  3,280
  3,446
  3,619
  3,800
  3,990
  4,190
  4,398
  4,617
  4,847
  5,087
  5,339
  5,604
  5,881
  6,172
  6,478
  6,798
  7,134
  7,487
  7,857
  8,245
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -462
  -490
  -519
  -550
  -581
  -614
  -648
  -684
  -722
  -761
  -802
  -845
  -889
  -936
  -986
  -1,037
  -1,091
  -1,148
  -1,207
  -1,269
  -1,334
  -1,403
  -1,474
  -1,550
  -1,628
  -1,711
  -1,798
  -1,889
  -1,984
  -2,085
New CAPEX, $m
  -227
  -231
  -241
  -252
  -263
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -313
  -328
  -343
  -359
  -376
  -394
  -412
  -432
  -453
  -474
  -497
  -521
  -547
  -573
  -601
  -631
  -662
  -694
  -728
  -764
  -802
  -842
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -689
  -721
  -760
  -802
  -844
  -889
  -935
  -984
  -1,035
  -1,089
  -1,145
  -1,204
  -1,265
  -1,330
  -1,398
  -1,469
  -1,544
  -1,622
  -1,704
  -1,790
  -1,881
  -1,976
  -2,075
  -2,181
  -2,290
  -2,405
  -2,526
  -2,653
  -2,786
  -2,927
Free cash flow, $m
  1,253
  1,407
  1,479
  1,554
  1,633
  1,715
  1,801
  1,890
  1,983
  2,081
  2,135
  2,242
  2,354
  2,470
  2,593
  2,721
  2,855
  2,995
  3,142
  3,297
  3,458
  3,628
  3,806
  3,992
  4,188
  4,393
  4,608
  4,834
  5,070
  5,319
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,127
  459
  478
  499
  521
  544
  568
  594
  621
  650
  680
  711
  745
  780
  817
  856
  897
  940
  986
  1,033
  1,083
  1,136
  1,192
  1,250
  1,311
  1,376
  1,444
  1,515
  1,590
  1,668
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  351
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -776
  459
  478
  499
  521
  544
  568
  594
  621
  650
  680
  711
  745
  780
  817
  856
  897
  940
  986
  1,033
  1,083
  1,136
  1,192
  1,250
  1,311
  1,376
  1,444
  1,515
  1,590
  1,668
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  477
  1,865
  1,957
  2,054
  2,154
  2,259
  2,369
  2,484
  2,604
  2,731
  2,815
  2,953
  3,098
  3,250
  3,410
  3,577
  3,752
  3,935
  4,128
  4,330
  4,542
  4,764
  4,997
  5,242
  5,499
  5,768
  6,051
  6,348
  6,660
  6,987
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,617
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -185
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -1,140
  1,815
  1,904
  1,998
  2,096
  2,199
  2,306
  2,418
  2,535
  2,658
  2,740
  2,874
  3,016
  3,164
  3,319
  3,481
  3,652
  3,831
  4,018
  4,215
  4,421
  4,638
  4,865
  5,103
  5,353
  5,616
  5,891
  6,180
  6,483
  6,802
Discount rate, %
  9.70
  10.19
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.38
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.03
  39.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1,039
  1,495
  1,404
  1,305
  1,201
  1,091
  980
  869
  760
  654
  546
  456
  374
  301
  238
  184
  140
  103
  75
  53
  36
  24
  16
  10
  6
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

L Brands, Inc. operates specialty retail business. The Company is focused on women's intimate and other apparel, personal care, beauty and home fragrance categories. Its segments include Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works, and Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works International. It sells its merchandise through company-owned specialty retail stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Greater China, which are mall-based; through Websites, and through international franchise, license and wholesale partners. It operates in the retail brands, which include Victoria's Secret, PINK, Bath & Body Works and La Senza. La Senza is a specialty retailer of women's intimate apparel. It sells its La Senza products at over 120 La Senza stores in Canada. Henri Bendel sells handbags, jewelry and other accessory products through New York and 28 other stores. Mast Global is a merchandise sourcing and production function serving the Company and its international partners.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  L Brands, Inc. (LB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 6.5
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book -10.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 36.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 54
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -781.9%
Total Debt to Equity -786.8%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 17.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Return On Total Capital 22.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Return On Equity -234.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -622.1%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.9%
EBITDA Margin 20.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Operating Margin 15.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Effective Tax Rate 31.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
Payout Ratio 109.5%

LB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $12632 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by L Brands, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of L Brands, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.7%, whose default value for LB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of L Brands, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of L Brands, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7% for L Brands, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for L Brands, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LB are equal to 29.3%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in L Brands, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LB is equal to -1.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-753 million for L Brands, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 275.019 million for L Brands, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of L Brands, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.3 billion.

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