Intrinsic value of L Brands - LB

Previous Close

$32.02

  Intrinsic Value

$14.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-55%

Previous close

$32.02

 
Intrinsic value

$14.35

 
Up/down potential

-55%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2018), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047
   2048

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  12,885
  13,181
  13,520
  13,900
  14,321
  14,784
  15,287
  15,832
  16,419
  17,050
  17,724
  18,443
  19,209
  20,023
  20,887
  21,802
  22,771
  23,796
  24,878
  26,021
  27,227
  28,499
  29,840
  31,253
  32,741
  34,307
  35,956
  37,691
  39,517
  41,436
Variable operating expenses, $m
  10,832
  11,078
  11,358
  11,672
  12,021
  12,403
  12,820
  13,270
  13,756
  14,277
  14,659
  15,254
  15,887
  16,560
  17,275
  18,032
  18,833
  19,681
  20,576
  21,522
  22,519
  23,571
  24,680
  25,848
  27,079
  28,375
  29,738
  31,173
  32,683
  34,271
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  10,832
  11,078
  11,358
  11,672
  12,021
  12,403
  12,820
  13,270
  13,756
  14,277
  14,659
  15,254
  15,887
  16,560
  17,275
  18,032
  18,833
  19,681
  20,576
  21,522
  22,519
  23,571
  24,680
  25,848
  27,079
  28,375
  29,738
  31,173
  32,683
  34,271
Operating income, $m
  2,052
  2,103
  2,162
  2,228
  2,301
  2,381
  2,468
  2,562
  2,663
  2,772
  3,065
  3,189
  3,322
  3,462
  3,612
  3,770
  3,938
  4,115
  4,302
  4,500
  4,708
  4,928
  5,160
  5,404
  5,662
  5,933
  6,218
  6,518
  6,833
  7,165
EBITDA, $m
  2,694
  2,756
  2,827
  2,907
  2,995
  3,092
  3,197
  3,311
  3,434
  3,566
  3,706
  3,857
  4,017
  4,187
  4,368
  4,559
  4,762
  4,976
  5,203
  5,442
  5,694
  5,960
  6,240
  6,536
  6,847
  7,174
  7,519
  7,882
  8,264
  8,665
Interest expense (income), $m
  387
  406
  306
  318
  332
  347
  365
  383
  404
  426
  450
  475
  503
  532
  563
  596
  631
  669
  708
  750
  794
  840
  889
  941
  995
  1,053
  1,113
  1,177
  1,244
  1,314
  1,389
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,647
  1,797
  1,844
  1,896
  1,953
  2,016
  2,084
  2,158
  2,237
  2,323
  2,589
  2,686
  2,790
  2,899
  3,016
  3,139
  3,269
  3,407
  3,552
  3,706
  3,868
  4,039
  4,219
  4,409
  4,609
  4,819
  5,041
  5,274
  5,519
  5,777
Tax expense, $m
  445
  485
  498
  512
  527
  544
  563
  583
  604
  627
  699
  725
  753
  783
  814
  847
  883
  920
  959
  1,001
  1,044
  1,091
  1,139
  1,190
  1,244
  1,301
  1,361
  1,424
  1,490
  1,560
Net income, $m
  1,202
  1,312
  1,346
  1,384
  1,426
  1,472
  1,522
  1,575
  1,633
  1,695
  1,890
  1,961
  2,036
  2,116
  2,201
  2,291
  2,386
  2,487
  2,593
  2,705
  2,824
  2,949
  3,080
  3,219
  3,365
  3,518
  3,680
  3,850
  4,029
  4,217

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,313
  8,504
  8,722
  8,968
  9,240
  9,538
  9,863
  10,214
  10,593
  11,000
  11,435
  11,899
  12,393
  12,918
  13,475
  14,066
  14,691
  15,352
  16,050
  16,788
  17,566
  18,387
  19,252
  20,163
  21,123
  22,134
  23,197
  24,317
  25,495
  26,733
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,313
  8,504
  8,722
  8,968
  9,240
  9,538
  9,863
  10,214
  10,593
  11,000
  11,435
  11,899
  12,393
  12,918
  13,475
  14,066
  14,691
  15,352
  16,050
  16,788
  17,566
  18,387
  19,252
  20,163
  21,123
  22,134
  23,197
  24,317
  25,495
  26,733
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
Average production assets, $m
  4,664
  4,772
  4,894
  5,032
  5,184
  5,352
  5,534
  5,731
  5,944
  6,172
  6,416
  6,676
  6,954
  7,248
  7,561
  7,892
  8,243
  8,614
  9,006
  9,420
  9,856
  10,317
  10,802
  11,314
  11,852
  12,419
  13,016
  13,644
  14,305
  15,000
Working capital, $m
  528
  540
  554
  570
  587
  606
  627
  649
  673
  699
  727
  756
  788
  821
  856
  894
  934
  976
  1,020
  1,067
  1,116
  1,168
  1,223
  1,281
  1,342
  1,407
  1,474
  1,545
  1,620
  1,699
Total debt, $m
  4,373
  4,545
  4,742
  4,963
  5,208
  5,476
  5,769
  6,085
  6,426
  6,792
  7,183
  7,601
  8,046
  8,518
  9,020
  9,551
  10,114
  10,709
  11,337
  12,001
  12,701
  13,440
  14,219
  15,039
  15,903
  16,812
  17,770
  18,777
  19,837
  20,952
Total liabilities, $m
  7,481
  7,653
  7,850
  8,071
  8,316
  8,584
  8,877
  9,193
  9,534
  9,900
  10,291
  10,709
  11,154
  11,626
  12,128
  12,659
  13,222
  13,817
  14,445
  15,109
  15,809
  16,548
  17,327
  18,147
  19,011
  19,920
  20,878
  21,885
  22,945
  24,060
Total equity, $m
  831
  850
  872
  897
  924
  954
  986
  1,021
  1,059
  1,100
  1,143
  1,190
  1,239
  1,292
  1,348
  1,407
  1,469
  1,535
  1,605
  1,679
  1,757
  1,839
  1,925
  2,016
  2,112
  2,213
  2,320
  2,432
  2,549
  2,673
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,312
  8,503
  8,722
  8,968
  9,240
  9,538
  9,863
  10,214
  10,593
  11,000
  11,434
  11,899
  12,393
  12,918
  13,476
  14,066
  14,691
  15,352
  16,050
  16,788
  17,566
  18,387
  19,252
  20,163
  21,123
  22,133
  23,198
  24,317
  25,494
  26,733
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.260
  5.350
  5.440
  5.530
  5.640
  5.740
  5.850
  5.960
  6.070
  6.170
  6.280
  6.390
  6.490
  6.590
  6.690
  6.790
  6.880
  6.980
  7.060
  7.150
  7.230
  7.310
  7.390
  7.460
  7.530
  7.600
  7.660
  7.720
  7.780
  7.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,202
  1,312
  1,346
  1,384
  1,426
  1,472
  1,522
  1,575
  1,633
  1,695
  1,890
  1,961
  2,036
  2,116
  2,201
  2,291
  2,386
  2,487
  2,593
  2,705
  2,824
  2,949
  3,080
  3,219
  3,365
  3,518
  3,680
  3,850
  4,029
  4,217
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  642
  653
  665
  679
  694
  711
  729
  749
  770
  793
  642
  668
  695
  725
  756
  789
  824
  861
  901
  942
  986
  1,032
  1,080
  1,131
  1,185
  1,242
  1,302
  1,364
  1,430
  1,500
Funds from operations, $m
  1,844
  1,965
  2,011
  2,063
  2,120
  2,183
  2,251
  2,324
  2,404
  2,489
  2,532
  2,629
  2,732
  2,841
  2,957
  3,081
  3,211
  3,348
  3,494
  3,647
  3,809
  3,980
  4,160
  4,350
  4,550
  4,760
  4,981
  5,214
  5,459
  5,717
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
Cash from operations, $m
  1,834
  1,953
  1,997
  2,047
  2,103
  2,164
  2,230
  2,302
  2,380
  2,463
  2,504
  2,599
  2,700
  2,808
  2,922
  3,043
  3,171
  3,306
  3,449
  3,601
  3,760
  3,928
  4,105
  4,292
  4,489
  4,696
  4,914
  5,143
  5,385
  5,638
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -458
  -466
  -477
  -489
  -503
  -518
  -535
  -553
  -573
  -594
  -617
  -642
  -668
  -695
  -725
  -756
  -789
  -824
  -861
  -901
  -942
  -986
  -1,032
  -1,080
  -1,131
  -1,185
  -1,242
  -1,302
  -1,364
  -1,430
New CAPEX, $m
  -88
  -107
  -123
  -138
  -153
  -167
  -182
  -197
  -213
  -228
  -244
  -260
  -277
  -295
  -313
  -331
  -351
  -371
  -392
  -414
  -437
  -460
  -485
  -511
  -539
  -567
  -597
  -628
  -661
  -695
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -546
  -573
  -600
  -627
  -656
  -685
  -717
  -750
  -786
  -822
  -861
  -902
  -945
  -990
  -1,038
  -1,087
  -1,140
  -1,195
  -1,253
  -1,315
  -1,379
  -1,446
  -1,517
  -1,591
  -1,670
  -1,752
  -1,839
  -1,930
  -2,025
  -2,125
Free cash flow, $m
  1,288
  1,379
  1,398
  1,420
  1,447
  1,478
  1,513
  1,551
  1,594
  1,640
  1,643
  1,697
  1,756
  1,818
  1,885
  1,956
  2,031
  2,111
  2,196
  2,286
  2,381
  2,482
  2,588
  2,700
  2,819
  2,944
  3,075
  3,213
  3,359
  3,513
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,421
  172
  197
  221
  245
  268
  292
  316
  341
  366
  391
  418
  445
  473
  502
  531
  563
  595
  629
  664
  700
  739
  779
  820
  864
  910
  957
  1,007
  1,060
  1,115
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  382
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1,039
  172
  197
  221
  245
  268
  292
  316
  341
  366
  391
  418
  445
  473
  502
  531
  563
  595
  629
  664
  700
  739
  779
  820
  864
  910
  957
  1,007
  1,060
  1,115
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  250
  1,551
  1,594
  1,641
  1,692
  1,746
  1,805
  1,868
  1,935
  2,006
  2,034
  2,115
  2,200
  2,291
  2,386
  2,487
  2,594
  2,706
  2,825
  2,950
  3,082
  3,221
  3,367
  3,521
  3,683
  3,853
  4,032
  4,221
  4,419
  4,628
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,584
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  101
  103
  105
  108
  111
  115
  118
  122
  127
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  288
  302
  316
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -1,334
  1,532
  1,572
  1,617
  1,665
  1,717
  1,773
  1,833
  1,897
  1,965
  1,991
  2,069
  2,151
  2,238
  2,330
  2,428
  2,531
  2,640
  2,755
  2,876
  3,004
  3,139
  3,280
  3,430
  3,587
  3,752
  3,926
  4,109
  4,301
  4,504
Discount rate, %
  10.00
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1,213
  1,255
  1,149
  1,043
  938
  835
  735
  639
  549
  465
  379
  311
  251
  199
  155
  118
  88
  64
  46
  32
  21
  14
  9
  6
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

L Brands, Inc. operates specialty retail business. The Company is focused on women's intimate and other apparel, personal care, beauty and home fragrance categories. Its segments include Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works, and Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works International. It sells its merchandise through company-owned specialty retail stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Greater China, which are mall-based; through Websites, and through international franchise, license and wholesale partners. It operates in the retail brands, which include Victoria's Secret, PINK, Bath & Body Works and La Senza. La Senza is a specialty retailer of women's intimate apparel. It sells its La Senza products at over 120 La Senza stores in Canada. Henri Bendel sells handbags, jewelry and other accessory products through New York and 28 other stores. Mast Global is a merchandise sourcing and production function serving the Company and its international partners.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  L Brands (LB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.9
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book -12.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 36.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 54
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -781.9%
Total Debt to Equity -786.8%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 17.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Return On Total Capital 22.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Return On Equity -234.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -622.1%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.9%
EBITDA Margin 20.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Operating Margin 15.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Effective Tax Rate 31.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
Payout Ratio 109.5%

LB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $12632 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by L Brands. The default revenue input number comes from 2018 income statement of L Brands. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10%, whose default value for LB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of L Brands, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of L Brands.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7% for L Brands.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for L Brands. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LB stock is equal to 0.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LB are equal to 36.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in L Brands operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LB is equal to 4.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-753 million for L Brands - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 282 million for L Brands is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of L Brands at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.0 billion.

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