Intrinsic value of Lincoln Electric Holdings - LECO

Previous Close

$97.87

  Intrinsic Value

$71.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-27%

Previous close

$97.87

 
Intrinsic value

$71.15

 
Up/down potential

-27%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LECO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.29
  17.80
  16.52
  15.37
  14.33
  13.40
  12.56
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.62
  8.25
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
Revenue, $m
  2,275
  2,680
  3,123
  3,603
  4,119
  4,671
  5,257
  5,878
  6,531
  7,218
  7,937
  8,688
  9,471
  10,287
  11,136
  12,019
  12,937
  13,891
  14,882
  15,912
  16,982
  18,096
  19,254
  20,459
  21,714
  23,022
  24,384
  25,805
  27,288
  28,835
  30,450
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,483
  2,889
  3,330
  3,804
  4,310
  4,848
  5,418
  6,018
  6,648
  7,308
  7,974
  8,693
  9,442
  10,221
  11,031
  11,873
  12,749
  13,658
  14,604
  15,586
  16,608
  17,671
  18,778
  19,929
  21,129
  22,380
  23,684
  25,045
  26,465
  27,947
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,986
  2,483
  2,889
  3,330
  3,804
  4,310
  4,848
  5,418
  6,018
  6,648
  7,308
  7,974
  8,693
  9,442
  10,221
  11,031
  11,873
  12,749
  13,658
  14,604
  15,586
  16,608
  17,671
  18,778
  19,929
  21,129
  22,380
  23,684
  25,045
  26,465
  27,947
Operating income, $m
  288
  197
  233
  273
  315
  361
  409
  460
  514
  570
  629
  714
  779
  846
  915
  988
  1,063
  1,142
  1,223
  1,308
  1,396
  1,487
  1,583
  1,682
  1,785
  1,892
  2,004
  2,121
  2,243
  2,370
  2,503
EBITDA, $m
  353
  275
  320
  369
  422
  479
  539
  602
  669
  740
  813
  890
  970
  1,054
  1,141
  1,232
  1,326
  1,423
  1,525
  1,630
  1,740
  1,854
  1,973
  2,096
  2,225
  2,359
  2,499
  2,644
  2,796
  2,955
  3,120
Interest expense (income), $m
  19
  25
  33
  42
  51
  61
  72
  83
  95
  108
  121
  135
  150
  165
  181
  198
  215
  233
  251
  270
  291
  311
  333
  356
  379
  403
  429
  455
  483
  512
  542
Earnings before tax, $m
  277
  172
  200
  231
  264
  300
  337
  377
  418
  462
  508
  579
  628
  680
  734
  790
  849
  909
  972
  1,037
  1,105
  1,176
  1,250
  1,326
  1,406
  1,489
  1,576
  1,666
  1,760
  1,858
  1,961
Tax expense, $m
  79
  46
  54
  62
  71
  81
  91
  102
  113
  125
  137
  156
  170
  184
  198
  213
  229
  245
  262
  280
  298
  318
  337
  358
  380
  402
  425
  450
  475
  502
  530
Net income, $m
  198
  125
  146
  169
  193
  219
  246
  275
  305
  337
  371
  422
  459
  497
  536
  577
  619
  664
  710
  757
  807
  859
  912
  968
  1,026
  1,087
  1,150
  1,216
  1,285
  1,357
  1,432

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  379
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,943
  1,842
  2,146
  2,476
  2,831
  3,210
  3,613
  4,040
  4,489
  4,961
  5,455
  5,971
  6,509
  7,070
  7,654
  8,261
  8,891
  9,547
  10,228
  10,936
  11,672
  12,437
  13,233
  14,061
  14,924
  15,823
  16,759
  17,736
  18,754
  19,818
  20,928
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,564
  1,842
  2,146
  2,476
  2,831
  3,210
  3,613
  4,040
  4,489
  4,961
  5,455
  5,971
  6,509
  7,070
  7,654
  8,261
  8,891
  9,547
  10,228
  10,936
  11,672
  12,437
  13,233
  14,061
  14,924
  15,823
  16,759
  17,736
  18,754
  19,818
  20,928
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
Average production assets, $m
  517
  608
  709
  818
  935
  1,060
  1,193
  1,334
  1,483
  1,638
  1,802
  1,972
  2,150
  2,335
  2,528
  2,728
  2,937
  3,153
  3,378
  3,612
  3,855
  4,108
  4,371
  4,644
  4,929
  5,226
  5,535
  5,858
  6,194
  6,545
  6,912
Working capital, $m
  656
  330
  384
  443
  507
  574
  647
  723
  803
  888
  976
  1,069
  1,165
  1,265
  1,370
  1,478
  1,591
  1,709
  1,830
  1,957
  2,089
  2,226
  2,368
  2,516
  2,671
  2,832
  2,999
  3,174
  3,356
  3,547
  3,745
Total debt, $m
  706
  922
  1,161
  1,420
  1,699
  1,997
  2,314
  2,649
  3,002
  3,373
  3,762
  4,167
  4,590
  5,031
  5,490
  5,967
  6,463
  6,978
  7,513
  8,070
  8,648
  9,249
  9,875
  10,526
  11,204
  11,910
  12,647
  13,414
  14,215
  15,051
  15,923
Total liabilities, $m
  1,232
  1,448
  1,687
  1,946
  2,225
  2,523
  2,840
  3,175
  3,528
  3,899
  4,288
  4,693
  5,116
  5,557
  6,016
  6,493
  6,989
  7,504
  8,039
  8,596
  9,174
  9,775
  10,401
  11,052
  11,730
  12,436
  13,173
  13,940
  14,741
  15,577
  16,449
Total equity, $m
  711
  394
  459
  530
  606
  687
  773
  864
  961
  1,062
  1,167
  1,278
  1,393
  1,513
  1,638
  1,768
  1,903
  2,043
  2,189
  2,340
  2,498
  2,661
  2,832
  3,009
  3,194
  3,386
  3,586
  3,795
  4,013
  4,241
  4,479
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,943
  1,842
  2,146
  2,476
  2,831
  3,210
  3,613
  4,039
  4,489
  4,961
  5,455
  5,971
  6,509
  7,070
  7,654
  8,261
  8,892
  9,547
  10,228
  10,936
  11,672
  12,436
  13,233
  14,061
  14,924
  15,822
  16,759
  17,735
  18,754
  19,818
  20,928
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.993
  2.340
  2.530
  2.680
  2.800
  2.910
  2.990
  3.060
  3.130
  3.180
  3.220
  3.260
  3.300
  3.330
  3.350
  3.380
  3.400
  3.420
  3.430
  3.450
  3.460
  3.480
  3.490
  3.500
  3.510
  3.520
  3.530
  3.530
  3.540
  3.550
  3.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  198
  125
  146
  169
  193
  219
  246
  275
  305
  337
  371
  422
  459
  497
  536
  577
  619
  664
  710
  757
  807
  859
  912
  968
  1,026
  1,087
  1,150
  1,216
  1,285
  1,357
  1,432
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  65
  78
  86
  96
  107
  118
  130
  142
  156
  169
  184
  176
  192
  208
  226
  244
  262
  282
  302
  322
  344
  367
  390
  415
  440
  467
  494
  523
  553
  584
  617
Funds from operations, $m
  321
  203
  233
  265
  300
  337
  376
  417
  461
  507
  555
  599
  651
  705
  762
  821
  882
  945
  1,011
  1,080
  1,151
  1,225
  1,302
  1,383
  1,466
  1,554
  1,644
  1,739
  1,838
  1,941
  2,049
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  50
  54
  59
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  182
  190
  199
Cash from operations, $m
  303
  153
  178
  206
  236
  269
  304
  341
  381
  422
  466
  506
  554
  605
  657
  712
  769
  828
  889
  953
  1,019
  1,088
  1,160
  1,235
  1,312
  1,393
  1,477
  1,564
  1,656
  1,751
  1,850
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -46
  -54
  -63
  -73
  -83
  -95
  -107
  -119
  -132
  -146
  -161
  -176
  -192
  -208
  -226
  -244
  -262
  -282
  -302
  -322
  -344
  -367
  -390
  -415
  -440
  -467
  -494
  -523
  -553
  -584
New CAPEX, $m
  -50
  -91
  -100
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -253
  -263
  -274
  -285
  -297
  -309
  -323
  -336
  -351
  -367
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -160
  -137
  -154
  -172
  -190
  -208
  -228
  -248
  -267
  -288
  -309
  -331
  -354
  -377
  -401
  -426
  -452
  -478
  -507
  -536
  -565
  -597
  -630
  -664
  -700
  -737
  -776
  -817
  -859
  -904
  -951
Free cash flow, $m
  143
  16
  23
  34
  46
  60
  76
  94
  113
  134
  157
  175
  200
  228
  256
  286
  317
  349
  383
  418
  454
  491
  530
  571
  612
  656
  701
  748
  796
  846
  899
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  351
  218
  239
  259
  279
  298
  317
  335
  353
  371
  388
  406
  423
  441
  459
  477
  496
  515
  535
  556
  578
  601
  626
  651
  678
  706
  736
  768
  801
  836
  873
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -317
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  218
  239
  259
  279
  298
  317
  335
  353
  371
  388
  406
  423
  441
  459
  477
  496
  515
  535
  556
  578
  601
  626
  651
  678
  706
  736
  768
  801
  836
  873
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  162
  233
  263
  293
  325
  358
  393
  429
  466
  505
  545
  581
  624
  668
  715
  763
  813
  864
  918
  974
  1,032
  1,093
  1,156
  1,222
  1,290
  1,362
  1,437
  1,515
  1,597
  1,682
  1,772
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  221
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -238
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  377
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  550
  197
  222
  249
  277
  306
  337
  370
  404
  439
  470
  508
  548
  590
  633
  678
  724
  772
  823
  875
  929
  986
  1,045
  1,106
  1,170
  1,237
  1,306
  1,379
  1,455
  1,534
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  527
  181
  194
  205
  215
  222
  228
  231
  232
  230
  223
  217
  208
  198
  186
  172
  158
  142
  127
  111
  96
  82
  68
  56
  46
  36
  28
  21
  16
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. is a manufacturer of welding, cutting and brazing products. The Company operates through three segments: Americas Welding, International Welding and The Harris Products Group. The Americas Welding segment includes welding operations in North and South America. The International Welding segment primarily includes welding operations in Europe, Africa, Asia and Australia. The Harris Products Group includes the Company's global cutting, soldering and brazing businesses, as well as the retail business in the United States. Its welding products include arc welding power sources, wire feeding systems, robotic welding packages, integrated automation systems, fume extraction equipment, consumable electrodes, fluxes and welding accessories, and specialty welding consumables and fabrication. Its product offerings also include computer numeric controlled plasma and oxy-fuel cutting systems, and regulators and torches used in oxy-fuel welding, cutting and brazing.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lincoln Electric Holdings (LECO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.5
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 190
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 99%
Total Debt to Equity 99.3%
Interest Coverage 16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Total Capital 14.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Return On Equity 24.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
EBITDA Margin 15.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Operating Margin 12.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Effective Tax Rate 28.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.8%
Payout Ratio 43.9%

LECO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LECO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2275 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lincoln Electric Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lincoln Electric Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LECO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LECO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lincoln Electric Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lincoln Electric Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LECO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LECO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for Lincoln Electric Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lincoln Electric Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LECO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LECO are equal to 22.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lincoln Electric Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LECO is equal to 12.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $711 million for Lincoln Electric Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 65.953 million for Lincoln Electric Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lincoln Electric Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Oct-27-17 07:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Lincoln Electric meets 3Q profit forecasts   [07:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lincoln Electric Earns Relative Strength Rating Upgrade; Hits Key Threshold   [Oct-25-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Dow Sprints To Record High; New Breakouts Emerge In Industrials   [Oct-24-17 01:42PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Lincoln Electric Board Approves 11.4% Dividend Increase   [Oct-17-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lincoln Electric tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-25-17 09:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Lincoln Electric Board Declares Dividend   [Jul-20-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 14th   [Jun-14-17 10:23AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 8th   [Jun-08-17 10:49AM  Zacks]
▶ Lincoln Electric Board Declares Dividend   [04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lincoln Electric beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-18-17 07:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lincoln Electric Board Declares Dividend   [Feb-22-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of LECO
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