Intrinsic value of Lee Enterprises - LEE

Previous Close

$2.49

  Intrinsic Value

$2.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-8%

Previous close

$2.49

 
Intrinsic value

$2.29

 
Up/down potential

-8%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of LEE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  578
  592
  607
  624
  643
  664
  686
  711
  737
  765
  795
  828
  862
  899
  937
  979
  1,022
  1,068
  1,117
  1,168
  1,222
  1,279
  1,339
  1,403
  1,469
  1,540
  1,614
  1,692
  1,774
  1,860
Variable operating expenses, $m
  450
  460
  471
  483
  496
  511
  527
  545
  563
  583
  567
  590
  614
  640
  668
  697
  728
  761
  796
  832
  871
  911
  954
  999
  1,047
  1,097
  1,150
  1,205
  1,264
  1,325
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
Total operating expenses, $m
  492
  503
  515
  528
  542
  558
  575
  594
  613
  634
  619
  643
  668
  696
  725
  755
  787
  822
  858
  895
  936
  977
  1,022
  1,068
  1,118
  1,169
  1,224
  1,280
  1,341
  1,404
Operating income, $m
  86
  89
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  124
  131
  177
  185
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
  259
  272
  287
  302
  317
  334
  352
  370
  390
  411
  433
  456
EBITDA, $m
  150
  154
  158
  163
  168
  174
  181
  188
  195
  204
  213
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  281
  295
  309
  325
  342
  359
  378
  398
  418
  440
  463
  487
  513
  540
Interest expense (income), $m
  59
  54
  40
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  118
  123
  129
  134
  141
  147
  154
  162
  170
  178
  187
  197
  207
  217
  229
  241
  253
  266
  280
  295
Tax expense, $m
  9
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
Net income, $m
  23
  36
  38
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  194
  205
  215

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  633
  648
  665
  683
  704
  727
  751
  778
  807
  838
  871
  907
  944
  984
  1,027
  1,072
  1,119
  1,170
  1,223
  1,279
  1,338
  1,401
  1,467
  1,536
  1,609
  1,686
  1,768
  1,853
  1,943
  2,037
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  633
  648
  665
  683
  704
  727
  751
  778
  807
  838
  871
  907
  944
  984
  1,027
  1,072
  1,119
  1,170
  1,223
  1,279
  1,338
  1,401
  1,467
  1,536
  1,609
  1,686
  1,768
  1,853
  1,943
  2,037
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.913
  0.914
  0.913
  0.914
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.914
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.914
  0.912
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
Average production assets, $m
  324
  331
  340
  349
  360
  372
  384
  398
  413
  429
  445
  464
  483
  503
  525
  548
  572
  598
  625
  654
  684
  716
  750
  785
  823
  862
  904
  947
  993
  1,041
Working capital, $m
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
Total debt, $m
  384
  397
  412
  428
  447
  468
  490
  514
  540
  568
  598
  629
  663
  699
  738
  778
  821
  866
  914
  965
  1,018
  1,074
  1,134
  1,196
  1,262
  1,331
  1,404
  1,481
  1,562
  1,647
Total liabilities, $m
  570
  583
  598
  615
  634
  654
  676
  700
  726
  754
  784
  816
  850
  886
  924
  965
  1,007
  1,053
  1,101
  1,151
  1,205
  1,261
  1,320
  1,383
  1,449
  1,518
  1,591
  1,668
  1,748
  1,833
Total equity, $m
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  633
  648
  664
  683
  704
  727
  751
  778
  807
  838
  871
  907
  944
  984
  1,027
  1,072
  1,119
  1,170
  1,223
  1,279
  1,339
  1,401
  1,467
  1,537
  1,610
  1,687
  1,768
  1,853
  1,942
  2,037
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.060
  6.120
  6.190
  6.270
  6.350
  6.430
  6.520
  6.600
  6.690
  6.770
  6.860
  6.940
  7.020
  7.100
  7.180
  7.260
  7.330
  7.410
  7.470
  7.540
  7.610
  7.670
  7.730
  7.790
  7.840
  7.890
  7.940
  7.990
  8.040
  8.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  23
  36
  38
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  194
  205
  215
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  64
  65
  66
  66
  67
  68
  69
  70
  72
  73
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
Funds from operations, $m
  88
  101
  103
  106
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  128
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  183
  192
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  258
  271
  285
  299
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  88
  101
  104
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  128
  123
  128
  133
  139
  146
  152
  160
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  213
  223
  235
  246
  259
  272
  286
  301
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -32
  -33
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
Free cash flow, $m
  56
  68
  68
  69
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  173
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -143
  13
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  132
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  45
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  172
  180
  190
  200
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -156
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -110
  79
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  100
  104
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  136
  142
  150
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
Discount rate, %
  13.80
  14.49
  15.21
  15.98
  16.77
  17.61
  18.49
  19.42
  20.39
  21.41
  22.48
  23.60
  24.78
  26.02
  27.32
  28.69
  30.12
  31.63
  33.21
  34.87
  36.62
  38.45
  40.37
  42.39
  44.51
  46.73
  49.07
  51.52
  54.10
  56.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -97
  61
  53
  47
  40
  34
  28
  23
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Lee Enterprises, Incorporated is a provider of local news and information, and a platform for print and digital advertising. The Company's products included 46 daily and 34 Sunday newspapers, 300 weekly newspapers, and classified and niche publications, as of September 25, 2016. The Company also provides a range of digital products, including video, digital couponing, behavioral targeting, audience retargeting, banner advertisements and social networking. It provides digital marketing services to small and midsized businesses (SMBs), including search engine marketing (SEM), social media, audience extension, business profiles, and Website hosting and design. It offers small business solutions, including search engine optimization (SEO), local online marketing, social media marketing, video advertising and Website design. The markets it caters to are located primarily in the Midwest, Mountain West and West regions of the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lee Enterprises (LEE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 5.2
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book -1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -42.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -540.2%
Total Debt to Equity -572.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Return On Total Capital 6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity -24.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.9%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 95.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 95.5%
EBITDA Margin 24.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.3%
Operating Margin 16.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Effective Tax Rate 27.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

LEE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LEE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $566.943 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lee Enterprises. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Lee Enterprises. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LEE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.8%, whose default value for LEE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lee Enterprises, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lee Enterprises.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LEE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $41 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LEE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.3% for Lee Enterprises.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lee Enterprises. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LEE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LEE are equal to 56%.

Life of production assets of 12.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lee Enterprises operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LEE is equal to -1.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-92.235 million for Lee Enterprises - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 57.08 million for Lee Enterprises is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lee Enterprises at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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TRNC tronc 16.12 25.95  str.buy
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AHC A. H. Belo Ser 4.54 1.04  str.sell
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Lee announces early repayment of 1st Lien Term Loan   [Nov-16-18 05:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lee Enterprises, Incorporated to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-03-18 08:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Lee selects Timothy R. Millage as Chief Financial Officer   [Aug-01-18 06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ The spiraling down of the daily newspaper: Circulation declines, layoffs continue   [Jul-11-18 07:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Owner of Triad's largest daily newspapers cedes management to Iowa chain   [Jun-27-18 01:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Lee Enterprises in Pact to Manage Berkshire Hathaway Newspapers   [Jun-26-18 08:01PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Post-Dispatch parent to manage Berkshire Hathaway's newspapers   [11:55AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Post-Dispatch lays off 5 newsroom employees   [Jun-19-18 12:10AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Ronald Mayo announces plans to leave Lee Enterprises   [Jun-15-18 06:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lee Enterprises reports second quarter results   [May-03-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Post-Dispatch limits free online articles for non-subscribers   [Mar-28-18 03:06PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Lee Enterprises, Incorporated to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-01-18 08:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Lee Enterprises, Incorporated to Host Earnings Call   [Dec-06-17 07:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Lee Enterprises reports second fiscal quarter earnings   [May-04-17 06:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Lee Enterprises, Inc. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 04:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 2 Potential Value Traps to Avoid   [Feb-07-17 02:13PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Post-Dispatch ups buyout offer to 20 employees   [Feb-03-17 05:40PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Post-Dispatch ups buyout offer to 20 employees   [05:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Phyllis Sewell Proved an Accidental Role Model for Female Executives   [Jan-06-17 11:30PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Phyllis Sewell Proved an Accidental Role Model for Women   [10:00AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Is Lee Enterprises, Incorporated (LEE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 04:19PM  at Insider Monkey]

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