Intrinsic value of Leju Holdings Limited - LEJU

Previous Close

$1.31

  Intrinsic Value

$0.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-73%

Previous close

$1.31

 
Intrinsic value

$0.35

 
Up/down potential

-73%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as LEJU.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LEJU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  370
  379
  389
  399
  412
  425
  439
  455
  472
  490
  509
  530
  552
  575
  600
  627
  654
  684
  715
  748
  782
  819
  858
  898
  941
  986
  1,033
  1,083
  1,136
  1,191
Variable operating expenses, $m
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  89
  92
  96
  99
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  480
  491
  502
  513
  524
  536
  547
  559
  572
  584
  597
  610
  624
  637
  651
  666
  680
  695
  711
  726
  742
  759
  775
  792
  810
  828
  846
  864
  883
  903
Total operating expenses, $m
  557
  569
  582
  595
  608
  623
  636
  651
  668
  683
  692
  709
  727
  745
  764
  783
  803
  823
  845
  866
  889
  913
  936
  960
  986
  1,013
  1,040
  1,067
  1,096
  1,126
Operating income, $m
  -187
  -190
  -193
  -195
  -197
  -197
  -197
  -197
  -195
  -193
  -183
  -180
  -175
  -170
  -164
  -157
  -149
  -140
  -130
  -119
  -107
  -93
  -79
  -63
  -45
  -27
  -6
  16
  39
  65
EBITDA, $m
  -170
  -174
  -176
  -178
  -179
  -180
  -179
  -178
  -176
  -174
  -171
  -166
  -161
  -155
  -149
  -141
  -132
  -123
  -112
  -100
  -87
  -73
  -57
  -40
  -22
  -2
  20
  43
  68
  94
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
Earnings before tax, $m
  -187
  -190
  -194
  -196
  -198
  -199
  -199
  -199
  -198
  -196
  -187
  -183
  -180
  -175
  -169
  -163
  -156
  -147
  -138
  -128
  -117
  -104
  -91
  -76
  -60
  -42
  -23
  -2
  20
  44
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  5
  12
Net income, $m
  -187
  -190
  -194
  -196
  -198
  -199
  -199
  -199
  -198
  -196
  -187
  -183
  -180
  -175
  -169
  -163
  -156
  -147
  -138
  -128
  -117
  -104
  -91
  -76
  -60
  -42
  -23
  -2
  15
  32

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  421
  430
  441
  454
  468
  483
  499
  517
  536
  557
  579
  602
  627
  654
  682
  712
  744
  777
  812
  850
  889
  931
  974
  1,021
  1,069
  1,120
  1,174
  1,231
  1,290
  1,353
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  421
  430
  441
  454
  468
  483
  499
  517
  536
  557
  579
  602
  627
  654
  682
  712
  744
  777
  812
  850
  889
  931
  974
  1,021
  1,069
  1,120
  1,174
  1,231
  1,290
  1,353
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.879
  0.881
  0.882
  0.879
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.881
  0.880
  0.879
  0.880
  0.880
  0.879
  0.880
  0.881
  0.879
  0.880
  0.881
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.881
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.881
  0.880
Average production assets, $m
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  182
  191
Working capital, $m
  -71
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -227
Total debt, $m
  4
  8
  13
  18
  24
  30
  38
  45
  54
  62
  72
  82
  93
  104
  117
  130
  143
  158
  173
  189
  206
  224
  243
  263
  284
  306
  330
  354
  380
  407
Total liabilities, $m
  182
  186
  191
  197
  203
  209
  216
  224
  232
  241
  251
  261
  272
  283
  295
  308
  322
  336
  352
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  533
  559
  586
Total equity, $m
  239
  244
  250
  257
  265
  274
  283
  293
  304
  316
  328
  341
  356
  371
  387
  404
  422
  441
  461
  482
  504
  528
  553
  579
  606
  635
  666
  698
  732
  767
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  421
  430
  441
  454
  468
  483
  499
  517
  536
  557
  579
  602
  628
  654
  682
  712
  744
  777
  813
  850
  889
  931
  975
  1,021
  1,069
  1,120
  1,174
  1,231
  1,291
  1,353
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.030
  0.050
  0.070
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.180
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -187
  -190
  -194
  -196
  -198
  -199
  -199
  -199
  -198
  -196
  -187
  -183
  -180
  -175
  -169
  -163
  -156
  -147
  -138
  -128
  -117
  -104
  -91
  -76
  -60
  -42
  -23
  -2
  15
  32
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
Funds from operations, $m
  -170
  -174
  -177
  -179
  -180
  -181
  -181
  -180
  -179
  -177
  -174
  -170
  -166
  -160
  -154
  -147
  -139
  -130
  -120
  -109
  -97
  -84
  -69
  -53
  -36
  -17
  3
  25
  43
  62
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
Cash from operations, $m
  -169
  -172
  -175
  -177
  -178
  -178
  -178
  -177
  -176
  -173
  -170
  -166
  -162
  -156
  -150
  -142
  -134
  -125
  -114
  -103
  -91
  -77
  -62
  -46
  -28
  -9
  12
  34
  53
  73
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
Free cash flow, $m
  -179
  -183
  -186
  -188
  -190
  -191
  -191
  -191
  -190
  -188
  -186
  -182
  -178
  -174
  -168
  -162
  -154
  -146
  -137
  -126
  -115
  -102
  -88
  -73
  -57
  -39
  -20
  1
  18
  35
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  191
  196
  200
  203
  205
  207
  208
  209
  209
  208
  199
  197
  194
  190
  185
  180
  174
  166
  158
  149
  139
  128
  115
  102
  87
  71
  53
  34
  19
  3
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  195
  200
  205
  208
  211
  214
  215
  217
  217
  217
  209
  207
  205
  202
  197
  193
  188
  180
  173
  165
  156
  146
  134
  122
  108
  93
  76
  59
  45
  30
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  63
  66
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -191
  -196
  -200
  -203
  -205
  -207
  -208
  -209
  -209
  -208
  -199
  -197
  -194
  -190
  -185
  -180
  -174
  -166
  -158
  -149
  -139
  -128
  -115
  -102
  -87
  -71
  -53
  -34
  -34
  -36
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -149
  -179
  -181
  -183
  -184
  -184
  -184
  -183
  -181
  -179
  -176
  -172
  -168
  -162
  -156
  -149
  -140
  -131
  -121
  -110
  -98
  -84
  -70
  -53
  -36
  -17
  3
  25
  29
  30
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -143
  -164
  -158
  -151
  -143
  -134
  -124
  -114
  -104
  -94
  -84
  -73
  -64
  -54
  -46
  -38
  -31
  -24
  -19
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  46.1
  21.2
  9.8
  4.5
  2.1
  1.0
  0.5
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Leju Holdings Limited is an online to offline (O2O), real estate services provider in China. The Company offers real estate e-commerce, online advertising and online listing services through its online platform, which consists of local Websites covering over 260 cities and various mobile applications. The Company integrates its online platform with offline services to facilitate residential property transactions. In addition to its own Websites, the Company operates various real estate and home furnishing Websites of SINA Corporation (SINA). Its O2O services for new residential properties include selling discount coupons and facilitating online property viewing, physical property visits, marketing events and pre-sale customer support. It sells advertising primarily on the SINA new residential properties and home furnishing Websites, which are operated by the Company.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Leju Holdings Limited (LEJU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -17.8
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -73.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -25.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Total Capital -2.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Equity -2.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 89.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 89.6%
EBITDA Margin 0.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Operating Margin -2.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Net Profit Margin -1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

LEJU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LEJU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $363 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Leju Holdings Limited. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Leju Holdings Limited. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LEJU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LEJU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Leju Holdings Limited, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Leju Holdings Limited.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LEJU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 20.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $470 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LEJU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Leju Holdings Limited.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Leju Holdings Limited. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LEJU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LEJU are equal to 16%.

Life of production assets of 6.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Leju Holdings Limited operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LEJU is equal to -19.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $260.302871 million for Leju Holdings Limited - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 135.762 million for Leju Holdings Limited is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Leju Holdings Limited at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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