Intrinsic value of Littelfuse, Inc. - LFUS

Previous Close

$199.02

  Intrinsic Value

$446.14

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+124%

Previous close

$199.02

 
Intrinsic value

$446.14

 
Up/down potential

+124%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of LFUS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  32.00
  29.30
  26.87
  24.68
  22.71
  20.94
  19.35
  17.91
  16.62
  15.46
  14.41
  13.47
  12.63
  11.86
  11.18
  10.56
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.65
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
Revenue, $m
  2,268
  2,932
  3,720
  4,638
  5,692
  6,884
  8,216
  9,688
  11,298
  13,045
  14,925
  16,936
  19,074
  21,337
  23,722
  26,227
  28,850
  31,592
  34,452
  37,431
  40,531
  43,755
  47,106
  50,589
  54,208
  57,969
  61,878
  65,944
  70,173
  74,574
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,824
  2,323
  2,916
  3,606
  4,398
  5,295
  6,296
  7,403
  8,613
  9,927
  11,222
  12,733
  14,341
  16,042
  17,835
  19,719
  21,691
  23,752
  25,902
  28,142
  30,473
  32,897
  35,417
  38,035
  40,756
  43,584
  46,523
  49,580
  52,760
  56,068
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,824
  2,323
  2,916
  3,606
  4,398
  5,295
  6,296
  7,403
  8,613
  9,927
  11,222
  12,733
  14,341
  16,042
  17,835
  19,719
  21,691
  23,752
  25,902
  28,142
  30,473
  32,897
  35,417
  38,035
  40,756
  43,584
  46,523
  49,580
  52,760
  56,068
Operating income, $m
  444
  609
  804
  1,032
  1,294
  1,589
  1,920
  2,285
  2,685
  3,118
  3,704
  4,203
  4,733
  5,295
  5,887
  6,508
  7,159
  7,840
  8,549
  9,288
  10,058
  10,858
  11,689
  12,554
  13,452
  14,385
  15,355
  16,364
  17,413
  18,506
EBITDA, $m
  647
  837
  1,062
  1,324
  1,625
  1,965
  2,345
  2,765
  3,225
  3,724
  4,260
  4,834
  5,445
  6,090
  6,771
  7,486
  8,235
  9,018
  9,834
  10,684
  11,569
  12,489
  13,446
  14,440
  15,473
  16,547
  17,662
  18,823
  20,030
  21,286
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  38
  57
  80
  108
  141
  178
  220
  267
  319
  376
  438
  505
  576
  651
  731
  816
  904
  997
  1,094
  1,195
  1,301
  1,410
  1,524
  1,643
  1,766
  1,894
  2,027
  2,165
  2,309
  2,459
Earnings before tax, $m
  406
  552
  724
  924
  1,153
  1,411
  1,700
  2,018
  2,365
  2,742
  3,266
  3,698
  4,158
  4,643
  5,155
  5,692
  6,255
  6,842
  7,455
  8,093
  8,757
  9,448
  10,165
  10,911
  11,686
  12,491
  13,328
  14,199
  15,104
  16,047
Tax expense, $m
  110
  149
  195
  249
  311
  381
  459
  545
  639
  740
  882
  998
  1,123
  1,254
  1,392
  1,537
  1,689
  1,847
  2,013
  2,185
  2,364
  2,551
  2,745
  2,946
  3,155
  3,373
  3,599
  3,834
  4,078
  4,333
Net income, $m
  297
  403
  528
  674
  842
  1,030
  1,241
  1,473
  1,727
  2,002
  2,384
  2,700
  3,035
  3,390
  3,763
  4,155
  4,566
  4,995
  5,442
  5,908
  6,393
  6,897
  7,421
  7,965
  8,531
  9,118
  9,730
  10,365
  11,026
  11,714

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,181
  4,113
  5,218
  6,505
  7,983
  9,655
  11,523
  13,587
  15,846
  18,296
  20,933
  23,753
  26,752
  29,926
  33,271
  36,784
  40,463
  44,308
  48,319
  52,498
  56,846
  61,367
  66,068
  70,952
  76,028
  81,303
  86,786
  92,488
  98,419
  104,592
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,181
  4,113
  5,218
  6,505
  7,983
  9,655
  11,523
  13,587
  15,846
  18,296
  20,933
  23,753
  26,752
  29,926
  33,271
  36,784
  40,463
  44,308
  48,319
  52,498
  56,846
  61,367
  66,068
  70,952
  76,028
  81,303
  86,786
  92,488
  98,419
  104,592
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
Average production assets, $m
  998
  1,290
  1,637
  2,041
  2,504
  3,029
  3,615
  4,263
  4,971
  5,740
  6,567
  7,452
  8,393
  9,388
  10,438
  11,540
  12,694
  13,900
  15,159
  16,470
  17,834
  19,252
  20,727
  22,259
  23,851
  25,506
  27,227
  29,015
  30,876
  32,813
Working capital, $m
  340
  440
  558
  696
  854
  1,033
  1,232
  1,453
  1,695
  1,957
  2,239
  2,540
  2,861
  3,201
  3,558
  3,934
  4,328
  4,739
  5,168
  5,615
  6,080
  6,563
  7,066
  7,588
  8,131
  8,695
  9,282
  9,892
  10,526
  11,186
Total debt, $m
  1,054
  1,489
  2,005
  2,607
  3,297
  4,078
  4,950
  5,914
  6,969
  8,113
  9,344
  10,661
  12,062
  13,544
  15,106
  16,747
  18,465
  20,261
  22,134
  24,085
  26,116
  28,227
  30,422
  32,703
  35,074
  37,537
  40,098
  42,761
  45,530
  48,413
Total liabilities, $m
  1,485
  1,921
  2,437
  3,038
  3,728
  4,509
  5,381
  6,345
  7,400
  8,544
  9,776
  11,093
  12,493
  13,975
  15,537
  17,178
  18,896
  20,692
  22,565
  24,516
  26,547
  28,659
  30,854
  33,135
  35,505
  37,968
  40,529
  43,192
  45,962
  48,844
Total equity, $m
  1,695
  2,192
  2,781
  3,467
  4,255
  5,146
  6,142
  7,242
  8,446
  9,752
  11,157
  12,660
  14,259
  15,950
  17,733
  19,606
  21,567
  23,616
  25,754
  27,981
  30,299
  32,709
  35,214
  37,817
  40,523
  43,334
  46,257
  49,296
  52,457
  55,747
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,180
  4,113
  5,218
  6,505
  7,983
  9,655
  11,523
  13,587
  15,846
  18,296
  20,933
  23,753
  26,752
  29,925
  33,270
  36,784
  40,463
  44,308
  48,319
  52,497
  56,846
  61,368
  66,068
  70,952
  76,028
  81,302
  86,786
  92,488
  98,419
  104,591
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.620
  0.680
  0.720
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  297
  403
  528
  674
  842
  1,030
  1,241
  1,473
  1,727
  2,002
  2,384
  2,700
  3,035
  3,390
  3,763
  4,155
  4,566
  4,995
  5,442
  5,908
  6,393
  6,897
  7,421
  7,965
  8,531
  9,118
  9,730
  10,365
  11,026
  11,714
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  203
  228
  258
  292
  331
  375
  425
  480
  540
  605
  557
  632
  711
  796
  885
  978
  1,076
  1,178
  1,285
  1,396
  1,511
  1,632
  1,757
  1,886
  2,021
  2,162
  2,307
  2,459
  2,617
  2,781
Funds from operations, $m
  500
  631
  786
  966
  1,173
  1,406
  1,666
  1,953
  2,267
  2,607
  2,940
  3,331
  3,746
  4,185
  4,648
  5,133
  5,642
  6,173
  6,727
  7,304
  7,904
  8,528
  9,177
  9,851
  10,552
  11,280
  12,037
  12,824
  13,643
  14,495
Change in working capital, $m
  82
  100
  118
  138
  158
  179
  200
  221
  242
  262
  282
  302
  321
  339
  358
  376
  394
  411
  429
  447
  465
  484
  503
  522
  543
  564
  586
  610
  634
  660
Cash from operations, $m
  418
  531
  668
  828
  1,015
  1,227
  1,466
  1,732
  2,025
  2,345
  2,658
  3,029
  3,426
  3,846
  4,290
  4,758
  5,248
  5,762
  6,298
  6,857
  7,439
  8,045
  8,674
  9,329
  10,009
  10,716
  11,450
  12,214
  13,008
  13,835
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -64
  -85
  -109
  -139
  -173
  -212
  -257
  -306
  -361
  -421
  -486
  -557
  -632
  -711
  -796
  -885
  -978
  -1,076
  -1,178
  -1,285
  -1,396
  -1,511
  -1,632
  -1,757
  -1,886
  -2,021
  -2,162
  -2,307
  -2,459
  -2,617
New CAPEX, $m
  -241
  -292
  -347
  -404
  -464
  -525
  -586
  -648
  -709
  -769
  -827
  -885
  -941
  -996
  -1,049
  -1,102
  -1,154
  -1,206
  -1,258
  -1,311
  -1,364
  -1,419
  -1,475
  -1,532
  -1,592
  -1,655
  -1,720
  -1,789
  -1,861
  -1,936
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -305
  -377
  -456
  -543
  -637
  -737
  -843
  -954
  -1,070
  -1,190
  -1,313
  -1,442
  -1,573
  -1,707
  -1,845
  -1,987
  -2,132
  -2,282
  -2,436
  -2,596
  -2,760
  -2,930
  -3,107
  -3,289
  -3,478
  -3,676
  -3,882
  -4,096
  -4,320
  -4,553
Free cash flow, $m
  112
  154
  212
  286
  378
  490
  623
  778
  956
  1,155
  1,345
  1,588
  1,853
  2,139
  2,445
  2,771
  3,116
  3,480
  3,862
  4,261
  4,679
  5,115
  5,568
  6,040
  6,530
  7,040
  7,569
  8,118
  8,689
  9,282
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  359
  435
  516
  601
  690
  781
  872
  964
  1,055
  1,144
  1,232
  1,317
  1,401
  1,482
  1,562
  1,641
  1,718
  1,796
  1,873
  1,951
  2,031
  2,112
  2,195
  2,281
  2,370
  2,463
  2,561
  2,663
  2,770
  2,883
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  115
  94
  61
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  474
  529
  577
  613
  690
  781
  872
  964
  1,055
  1,144
  1,232
  1,317
  1,401
  1,482
  1,562
  1,641
  1,718
  1,796
  1,873
  1,951
  2,031
  2,112
  2,195
  2,281
  2,370
  2,463
  2,561
  2,663
  2,770
  2,883
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  587
  683
  788
  899
  1,068
  1,271
  1,496
  1,742
  2,010
  2,299
  2,576
  2,905
  3,254
  3,621
  4,007
  4,412
  4,834
  5,275
  5,735
  6,213
  6,710
  7,226
  7,763
  8,321
  8,901
  9,503
  10,129
  10,781
  11,459
  12,164
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -412
  -497
  -589
  -686
  -788
  -891
  -996
  -1,100
  -1,204
  -1,306
  -1,406
  -1,503
  -1,598
  -1,692
  -1,783
  -1,872
  -1,961
  -2,049
  -2,138
  -2,227
  -2,318
  -2,410
  -2,505
  -2,603
  -2,705
  -2,812
  -2,923
  -3,039
  -3,161
  -3,290
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  194
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  369
  187
  199
  213
  281
  380
  500
  642
  806
  993
  1,171
  1,402
  1,655
  1,930
  2,224
  2,539
  2,873
  3,226
  3,597
  3,986
  4,392
  4,816
  5,258
  5,718
  6,195
  6,691
  7,207
  7,742
  8,297
  8,874
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  354
  171
  174
  175
  217
  276
  338
  401
  463
  521
  556
  598
  629
  648
  653
  645
  625
  594
  554
  506
  454
  400
  345
  291
  241
  195
  155
  120
  91
  67
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.4
  95.8
  95.0
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9

Littelfuse, Inc. is a supplier of circuit protection products for the electronics, automotive and industrial markets. The Company operates through three segments. The Electronics segment provides circuit protection components for overcurrent and overvoltage protection, as well as sensor components and modules to manufacturers of a range of electronic products. The Automotive segment provides circuit protection and sensor products to the worldwide automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and parts distributors of passenger automobiles, trucks, buses, and off-road equipment. The Industrial Segment provides circuit protection products for industrial and commercial customers. The Company also offers electronic reed switches and sensors, automotive sensors for comfort and safety systems and a range of electromechanical and electronic switch and control devices for commercial and specialty vehicles.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Littelfuse, Inc. (LFUS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 43.3
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book 5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25
Price to Free Cash Flow 33.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 47
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 55%
Total Debt to Equity 55.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Total Capital 9.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Equity 13.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.4%
EBITDA Margin 16.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Operating Margin 12.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Net Profit Margin 9.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Payout Ratio 26.9%

LFUS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LFUS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1718 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Littelfuse, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Littelfuse, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LFUS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 32% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LFUS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Littelfuse, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Littelfuse, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LFUS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LFUS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Littelfuse, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Littelfuse, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LFUS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LFUS are equal to 44%.

Life of production assets of 11.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Littelfuse, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LFUS is equal to 15%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1478.211 million for Littelfuse, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.694 million for Littelfuse, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Littelfuse, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.

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