Intrinsic value of Ligand Pharmaceuticals - LGND

Previous Close

$150.56

  Intrinsic Value

$142.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-6%

Previous close

$150.56

 
Intrinsic value

$142.09

 
Up/down potential

-6%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LGND stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  51.39
  50.00
  45.50
  41.45
  37.81
  34.52
  31.57
  28.91
  26.52
  24.37
  22.43
  20.69
  19.12
  17.71
  16.44
  15.29
  14.27
  13.34
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
Revenue, $m
  109
  164
  238
  336
  464
  624
  821
  1,058
  1,339
  1,665
  2,038
  2,460
  2,931
  3,450
  4,017
  4,631
  5,292
  5,998
  6,748
  7,541
  8,376
  9,253
  10,172
  11,131
  12,131
  13,173
  14,258
  15,385
  16,557
  17,775
  19,040
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  32
  44
  59
  79
  103
  134
  170
  213
  264
  321
  379
  451
  531
  618
  713
  815
  923
  1,039
  1,161
  1,289
  1,424
  1,566
  1,714
  1,868
  2,028
  2,195
  2,368
  2,549
  2,736
  2,931
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  65
  32
  44
  59
  79
  103
  134
  170
  213
  264
  321
  379
  451
  531
  618
  713
  815
  923
  1,039
  1,161
  1,289
  1,424
  1,566
  1,714
  1,868
  2,028
  2,195
  2,368
  2,549
  2,736
  2,931
Operating income, $m
  44
  131
  194
  277
  385
  521
  687
  888
  1,125
  1,401
  1,717
  2,082
  2,480
  2,919
  3,398
  3,918
  4,477
  5,074
  5,709
  6,380
  7,087
  7,829
  8,606
  9,417
  10,264
  11,145
  12,063
  13,017
  14,008
  15,038
  16,109
EBITDA, $m
  55
  151
  220
  311
  428
  576
  758
  978
  1,237
  1,539
  1,884
  2,273
  2,708
  3,188
  3,712
  4,279
  4,890
  5,542
  6,235
  6,968
  7,740
  8,550
  9,399
  10,285
  11,210
  12,173
  13,175
  14,217
  15,299
  16,425
  17,594
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  17
  23
  31
  40
  51
  64
  78
  94
  112
  132
  154
  178
  203
  231
  260
  290
  322
  356
  392
  429
  467
  507
  549
  593
  638
  685
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  128
  188
  269
  373
  503
  664
  857
  1,085
  1,351
  1,654
  2,004
  2,385
  2,806
  3,266
  3,764
  4,299
  4,871
  5,478
  6,120
  6,797
  7,506
  8,250
  9,026
  9,835
  10,678
  11,555
  12,467
  13,415
  14,401
  15,424
Tax expense, $m
  10
  34
  51
  73
  101
  136
  179
  231
  293
  365
  447
  541
  644
  758
  882
  1,016
  1,161
  1,315
  1,479
  1,652
  1,835
  2,027
  2,227
  2,437
  2,656
  2,883
  3,120
  3,366
  3,622
  3,888
  4,165
Net income, $m
  -2
  93
  138
  196
  272
  367
  485
  626
  792
  986
  1,207
  1,463
  1,741
  2,049
  2,384
  2,748
  3,138
  3,556
  3,999
  4,468
  4,962
  5,480
  6,022
  6,589
  7,180
  7,795
  8,435
  9,101
  9,793
  10,512
  11,260

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  141
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  602
  693
  1,008
  1,426
  1,965
  2,643
  3,478
  4,483
  5,673
  7,055
  8,638
  10,425
  12,418
  14,617
  17,020
  19,623
  22,423
  25,414
  28,592
  31,952
  35,492
  39,209
  43,100
  47,165
  51,404
  55,819
  60,413
  65,191
  70,156
  75,316
  80,678
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  461
  693
  1,008
  1,426
  1,965
  2,643
  3,478
  4,483
  5,673
  7,055
  8,638
  10,425
  12,418
  14,617
  17,020
  19,623
  22,423
  25,414
  28,592
  31,952
  35,492
  39,209
  43,100
  47,165
  51,404
  55,819
  60,413
  65,191
  70,156
  75,316
  80,678
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.236
  0.237
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
Average production assets, $m
  145
  217
  315
  446
  615
  827
  1,088
  1,403
  1,775
  2,208
  2,703
  3,262
  3,886
  4,574
  5,326
  6,141
  7,017
  7,953
  8,947
  9,999
  11,107
  12,270
  13,487
  14,759
  16,086
  17,468
  18,906
  20,400
  21,954
  23,569
  25,247
Working capital, $m
  -64
  12
  17
  25
  34
  46
  60
  77
  98
  122
  149
  180
  214
  252
  293
  338
  386
  438
  493
  550
  611
  675
  743
  813
  886
  962
  1,041
  1,123
  1,209
  1,298
  1,390
Total debt, $m
  242
  161
  243
  352
  492
  668
  885
  1,147
  1,456
  1,815
  2,227
  2,691
  3,210
  3,782
  4,406
  5,083
  5,811
  6,589
  7,415
  8,289
  9,209
  10,175
  11,187
  12,244
  13,346
  14,494
  15,688
  16,931
  18,222
  19,563
  20,957
Total liabilities, $m
  260
  180
  262
  371
  511
  687
  904
  1,166
  1,475
  1,834
  2,246
  2,710
  3,229
  3,801
  4,425
  5,102
  5,830
  6,608
  7,434
  8,308
  9,228
  10,194
  11,206
  12,263
  13,365
  14,513
  15,707
  16,950
  18,241
  19,582
  20,976
Total equity, $m
  341
  513
  746
  1,055
  1,454
  1,956
  2,574
  3,318
  4,198
  5,221
  6,392
  7,714
  9,189
  10,817
  12,595
  14,521
  16,593
  18,806
  21,158
  23,645
  26,264
  29,014
  31,894
  34,902
  38,039
  41,306
  44,706
  48,241
  51,915
  55,734
  59,702
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  601
  693
  1,008
  1,426
  1,965
  2,643
  3,478
  4,484
  5,673
  7,055
  8,638
  10,424
  12,418
  14,618
  17,020
  19,623
  22,423
  25,414
  28,592
  31,953
  35,492
  39,208
  43,100
  47,165
  51,404
  55,819
  60,413
  65,191
  70,156
  75,316
  80,678
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.710
  0.310
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -2
  93
  138
  196
  272
  367
  485
  626
  792
  986
  1,207
  1,463
  1,741
  2,049
  2,384
  2,748
  3,138
  3,556
  3,999
  4,468
  4,962
  5,480
  6,022
  6,589
  7,180
  7,795
  8,435
  9,101
  9,793
  10,512
  11,260
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  20
  26
  33
  43
  56
  71
  90
  112
  137
  166
  192
  229
  269
  313
  361
  413
  468
  526
  588
  653
  722
  793
  868
  946
  1,028
  1,112
  1,200
  1,291
  1,386
  1,485
Funds from operations, $m
  52
  113
  163
  230
  316
  423
  556
  715
  904
  1,123
  1,374
  1,655
  1,970
  2,318
  2,698
  3,109
  3,551
  4,024
  4,525
  5,056
  5,615
  6,201
  6,816
  7,457
  8,126
  8,823
  9,548
  10,301
  11,085
  11,899
  12,745
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  4
  5
  7
  9
  12
  14
  17
  20
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  92
Cash from operations, $m
  63
  109
  158
  223
  306
  412
  541
  698
  883
  1,099
  1,346
  1,624
  1,936
  2,280
  2,656
  3,064
  3,503
  3,972
  4,471
  4,998
  5,554
  6,137
  6,748
  7,387
  8,053
  8,747
  9,468
  10,219
  10,999
  11,810
  12,652
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -13
  -19
  -26
  -36
  -49
  -64
  -83
  -104
  -130
  -159
  -192
  -229
  -269
  -313
  -361
  -413
  -468
  -526
  -588
  -653
  -722
  -793
  -868
  -946
  -1,028
  -1,112
  -1,200
  -1,291
  -1,386
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -72
  -99
  -131
  -169
  -212
  -261
  -315
  -372
  -433
  -495
  -559
  -624
  -688
  -752
  -815
  -876
  -936
  -994
  -1,052
  -1,108
  -1,163
  -1,218
  -1,272
  -1,327
  -1,382
  -1,438
  -1,495
  -1,554
  -1,615
  -1,678
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -143
  -81
  -112
  -150
  -195
  -248
  -310
  -379
  -455
  -537
  -625
  -718
  -816
  -917
  -1,021
  -1,128
  -1,237
  -1,349
  -1,462
  -1,578
  -1,696
  -1,816
  -1,940
  -2,065
  -2,195
  -2,328
  -2,466
  -2,607
  -2,754
  -2,906
  -3,064
Free cash flow, $m
  -80
  28
  46
  73
  111
  163
  232
  319
  429
  562
  721
  905
  1,120
  1,363
  1,635
  1,936
  2,266
  2,623
  3,008
  3,420
  3,858
  4,321
  4,809
  5,322
  5,858
  6,419
  7,003
  7,612
  8,245
  8,904
  9,588
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  60
  82
  109
  140
  176
  217
  261
  309
  359
  412
  465
  518
  572
  625
  677
  728
  778
  826
  874
  920
  966
  1,012
  1,057
  1,102
  1,148
  1,194
  1,242
  1,291
  1,342
  1,394
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  79
  96
  113
  127
  135
  133
  119
  88
  37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  139
  178
  222
  267
  311
  350
  380
  397
  396
  412
  465
  518
  572
  625
  677
  728
  778
  826
  874
  920
  966
  1,012
  1,057
  1,102
  1,148
  1,194
  1,242
  1,291
  1,342
  1,394
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -79
  167
  224
  295
  378
  474
  582
  699
  826
  959
  1,133
  1,370
  1,638
  1,935
  2,260
  2,613
  2,994
  3,401
  3,835
  4,294
  4,778
  5,287
  5,821
  6,378
  6,960
  7,567
  8,198
  8,854
  9,536
  10,245
  10,982
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -104
  -172
  -233
  -309
  -399
  -502
  -618
  -744
  -880
  -1,023
  -1,171
  -1,323
  -1,475
  -1,627
  -1,778
  -1,926
  -2,071
  -2,213
  -2,352
  -2,487
  -2,620
  -2,750
  -2,879
  -3,008
  -3,137
  -3,267
  -3,400
  -3,535
  -3,674
  -3,818
  -3,968
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  -9
  -14
  -21
  -28
  -36
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -39
  48
  163
  307
  482
  687
  922
  1,188
  1,483
  1,807
  2,159
  2,537
  2,941
  3,370
  3,823
  4,299
  4,798
  5,319
  5,862
  6,427
  7,014
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  -8
  -13
  -17
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -20
  23
  70
  117
  162
  202
  234
  258
  273
  278
  274
  262
  244
  221
  195
  167
  140
  114
  91
  70
  53
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.6
  95.7
  94.2
  93.0
  92.1
  91.5
  91.0
  90.8
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (Ligand) is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing and acquiring technologies that help pharmaceutical companies discover and develop medicines. The Company is involved in the development and licensing of biopharmaceutical assets. The Company employs research technologies, such as nuclear receptor assays, high throughput computer screening, formulation science, liver targeted pro-drug technologies and antibody discovery technologies to assist companies in their work toward obtaining prescription drug approvals. As of December 31, 2016, it had partnerships and license agreements with over 85 pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, and over 140 various programs under license with it were in various stages of commercialization and development. It has contributed research and technologies for approved medicines that treat cancer, osteoporosis, fungal infections and low blood platelets, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1574.1
Price to Sales 28.9
Price to Book 9.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 50
Price to Free Cash Flow 73.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 51.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 400%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 38%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 8.5%
Total Debt to Equity 71%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Return On Total Capital -0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Return On Equity -0.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 94.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 90.3%
EBITDA Margin 19.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.1%
Operating Margin 40.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
Net Profit Margin -1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 112%
Effective Tax Rate 125%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -141.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

LGND stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LGND stock intrinsic value calculation we used $109 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ligand Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ligand Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LGND stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 50% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LGND is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ligand Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ligand Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LGND stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 22%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LGND stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ligand Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ligand Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LGND stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LGND are equal to 132.6%.

Life of production assets of 17 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ligand Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LGND is equal to 7.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $341 million for Ligand Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.398 million for Ligand Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ligand Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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Financial statements of LGND
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