Intrinsic value of Laboratory Corporation of America Holdin - LH

Previous Close

$157.45

  Intrinsic Value

$164.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+5%

Previous close

$157.45

 
Intrinsic value

$164.67

 
Up/down potential

+5%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of LH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 15.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  11,560
  11,826
  12,129
  12,471
  12,849
  13,264
  13,715
  14,204
  14,731
  15,296
  15,901
  16,547
  17,234
  17,964
  18,739
  19,560
  20,429
  21,349
  22,320
  23,345
  24,427
  25,569
  26,772
  28,039
  29,374
  30,779
  32,259
  33,815
  35,453
  37,175
Variable operating expenses, $m
  10,069
  10,275
  10,510
  10,774
  11,066
  11,387
  11,736
  12,115
  12,522
  12,960
  12,300
  12,800
  13,331
  13,896
  14,495
  15,131
  15,803
  16,514
  17,265
  18,059
  18,896
  19,779
  20,709
  21,689
  22,722
  23,809
  24,954
  26,158
  27,424
  28,757
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  10,069
  10,275
  10,510
  10,774
  11,066
  11,387
  11,736
  12,115
  12,522
  12,960
  12,300
  12,800
  13,331
  13,896
  14,495
  15,131
  15,803
  16,514
  17,265
  18,059
  18,896
  19,779
  20,709
  21,689
  22,722
  23,809
  24,954
  26,158
  27,424
  28,757
Operating income, $m
  1,491
  1,551
  1,620
  1,697
  1,783
  1,876
  1,979
  2,089
  2,209
  2,337
  3,601
  3,747
  3,903
  4,068
  4,243
  4,429
  4,626
  4,834
  5,054
  5,287
  5,532
  5,790
  6,063
  6,350
  6,652
  6,970
  7,305
  7,658
  8,028
  8,418
EBITDA, $m
  2,937
  3,005
  3,082
  3,169
  3,265
  3,370
  3,485
  3,609
  3,743
  3,887
  4,040
  4,204
  4,379
  4,565
  4,762
  4,970
  5,191
  5,425
  5,671
  5,932
  6,207
  6,497
  6,803
  7,125
  7,464
  7,821
  8,197
  8,592
  9,009
  9,446
Interest expense (income), $m
  211
  327
  337
  349
  362
  377
  394
  412
  432
  453
  476
  501
  528
  556
  586
  618
  652
  688
  726
  767
  809
  854
  902
  952
  1,005
  1,060
  1,119
  1,181
  1,246
  1,314
  1,386
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,163
  1,214
  1,271
  1,335
  1,405
  1,483
  1,567
  1,658
  1,756
  1,861
  3,100
  3,219
  3,347
  3,482
  3,625
  3,777
  3,938
  4,108
  4,288
  4,477
  4,677
  4,888
  5,111
  5,345
  5,591
  5,851
  6,124
  6,412
  6,714
  7,033
Tax expense, $m
  314
  328
  343
  360
  379
  400
  423
  448
  474
  502
  837
  869
  904
  940
  979
  1,020
  1,063
  1,109
  1,158
  1,209
  1,263
  1,320
  1,380
  1,443
  1,510
  1,580
  1,654
  1,731
  1,813
  1,899
Net income, $m
  849
  886
  928
  974
  1,026
  1,082
  1,144
  1,210
  1,282
  1,358
  2,263
  2,350
  2,443
  2,542
  2,646
  2,757
  2,875
  2,999
  3,130
  3,268
  3,414
  3,568
  3,731
  3,902
  4,082
  4,271
  4,471
  4,681
  4,902
  5,134

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  16,514
  16,894
  17,328
  17,815
  18,355
  18,948
  19,593
  20,292
  21,044
  21,852
  22,716
  23,638
  24,619
  25,663
  26,770
  27,943
  29,185
  30,498
  31,885
  33,351
  34,896
  36,527
  38,245
  40,056
  41,963
  43,970
  46,084
  48,307
  50,647
  53,108
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  16,514
  16,894
  17,328
  17,815
  18,355
  18,948
  19,593
  20,292
  21,044
  21,852
  22,716
  23,638
  24,619
  25,663
  26,770
  27,943
  29,185
  30,498
  31,885
  33,351
  34,896
  36,527
  38,245
  40,056
  41,963
  43,970
  46,084
  48,307
  50,647
  53,108
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
Average production assets, $m
  7,606
  7,781
  7,981
  8,206
  8,454
  8,727
  9,025
  9,346
  9,693
  10,065
  10,463
  10,888
  11,340
  11,820
  12,330
  12,870
  13,442
  14,047
  14,686
  15,361
  16,073
  16,824
  17,616
  18,450
  19,328
  20,253
  21,226
  22,250
  23,328
  24,461
Working capital, $m
  555
  568
  582
  599
  617
  637
  658
  682
  707
  734
  763
  794
  827
  862
  899
  939
  981
  1,025
  1,071
  1,121
  1,173
  1,227
  1,285
  1,346
  1,410
  1,477
  1,548
  1,623
  1,702
  1,784
Total debt, $m
  6,242
  6,458
  6,705
  6,983
  7,290
  7,627
  7,994
  8,392
  8,820
  9,280
  9,771
  10,296
  10,854
  11,448
  12,078
  12,745
  13,452
  14,199
  14,989
  15,822
  16,702
  17,630
  18,607
  19,638
  20,723
  21,865
  23,067
  24,333
  25,664
  27,064
Total liabilities, $m
  9,396
  9,612
  9,860
  10,137
  10,444
  10,781
  11,149
  11,546
  11,974
  12,434
  12,925
  13,450
  14,008
  14,602
  15,232
  15,899
  16,606
  17,353
  18,143
  18,976
  19,856
  20,784
  21,761
  22,792
  23,877
  25,019
  26,222
  27,487
  28,818
  30,218
Total equity, $m
  7,117
  7,281
  7,468
  7,678
  7,911
  8,167
  8,445
  8,746
  9,070
  9,418
  9,791
  10,188
  10,611
  11,061
  11,538
  12,043
  12,579
  13,145
  13,743
  14,374
  15,040
  15,743
  16,484
  17,264
  18,086
  18,951
  19,862
  20,821
  21,829
  22,889
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  16,513
  16,893
  17,328
  17,815
  18,355
  18,948
  19,594
  20,292
  21,044
  21,852
  22,716
  23,638
  24,619
  25,663
  26,770
  27,942
  29,185
  30,498
  31,886
  33,350
  34,896
  36,527
  38,245
  40,056
  41,963
  43,970
  46,084
  48,308
  50,647
  53,107
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  849
  886
  928
  974
  1,026
  1,082
  1,144
  1,210
  1,282
  1,358
  2,263
  2,350
  2,443
  2,542
  2,646
  2,757
  2,875
  2,999
  3,130
  3,268
  3,414
  3,568
  3,731
  3,902
  4,082
  4,271
  4,471
  4,681
  4,902
  5,134
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,447
  1,454
  1,462
  1,472
  1,482
  1,494
  1,506
  1,520
  1,534
  1,550
  440
  457
  476
  497
  518
  541
  565
  590
  617
  645
  675
  707
  740
  775
  812
  851
  892
  935
  980
  1,028
Funds from operations, $m
  2,296
  2,340
  2,390
  2,446
  2,508
  2,576
  2,650
  2,730
  2,816
  2,908
  2,702
  2,808
  2,920
  3,038
  3,165
  3,298
  3,440
  3,589
  3,747
  3,914
  4,090
  4,275
  4,471
  4,677
  4,894
  5,122
  5,363
  5,616
  5,882
  6,162
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
Cash from operations, $m
  2,285
  2,327
  2,376
  2,430
  2,490
  2,556
  2,628
  2,707
  2,791
  2,881
  2,673
  2,777
  2,887
  3,003
  3,127
  3,259
  3,398
  3,545
  3,700
  3,865
  4,038
  4,221
  4,413
  4,616
  4,830
  5,055
  5,292
  5,541
  5,803
  6,079
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -313
  -320
  -327
  -335
  -345
  -355
  -367
  -379
  -393
  -407
  -423
  -440
  -457
  -476
  -497
  -518
  -541
  -565
  -590
  -617
  -645
  -675
  -707
  -740
  -775
  -812
  -851
  -892
  -935
  -980
New CAPEX, $m
  -151
  -175
  -200
  -225
  -249
  -273
  -297
  -322
  -347
  -372
  -398
  -425
  -452
  -481
  -510
  -540
  -572
  -605
  -639
  -675
  -712
  -751
  -792
  -834
  -878
  -925
  -973
  -1,024
  -1,078
  -1,133
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -464
  -495
  -527
  -560
  -594
  -628
  -664
  -701
  -740
  -779
  -821
  -865
  -909
  -957
  -1,007
  -1,058
  -1,113
  -1,170
  -1,229
  -1,292
  -1,357
  -1,426
  -1,499
  -1,574
  -1,653
  -1,737
  -1,824
  -1,916
  -2,013
  -2,113
Free cash flow, $m
  1,821
  1,833
  1,849
  1,870
  1,897
  1,928
  1,965
  2,006
  2,051
  2,102
  1,853
  1,912
  1,977
  2,046
  2,121
  2,200
  2,285
  2,375
  2,471
  2,573
  2,680
  2,794
  2,915
  3,042
  3,176
  3,318
  3,467
  3,625
  3,791
  3,965
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  182
  216
  247
  277
  307
  337
  367
  397
  428
  460
  492
  525
  559
  594
  630
  668
  707
  747
  790
  834
  880
  928
  978
  1,030
  1,085
  1,142
  1,202
  1,265
  1,331
  1,400
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  182
  216
  247
  277
  307
  337
  367
  397
  428
  460
  492
  525
  559
  594
  630
  668
  707
  747
  790
  834
  880
  928
  978
  1,030
  1,085
  1,142
  1,202
  1,265
  1,331
  1,400
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2,003
  2,049
  2,096
  2,147
  2,204
  2,265
  2,332
  2,403
  2,480
  2,561
  2,344
  2,437
  2,535
  2,640
  2,751
  2,868
  2,992
  3,123
  3,261
  3,406
  3,560
  3,722
  3,892
  4,072
  4,261
  4,460
  4,670
  4,890
  5,122
  5,366
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -146
  -164
  -187
  -210
  -233
  -255
  -278
  -301
  -324
  -348
  -372
  -397
  -423
  -450
  -477
  -506
  -535
  -566
  -598
  -631
  -666
  -703
  -741
  -780
  -822
  -865
  -911
  -958
  -1,008
  -1,061
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,857
  1,885
  1,909
  1,937
  1,971
  2,010
  2,054
  2,102
  2,155
  2,213
  1,972
  2,040
  2,112
  2,190
  2,274
  2,362
  2,456
  2,557
  2,663
  2,775
  2,894
  3,019
  3,152
  3,292
  3,439
  3,595
  3,759
  3,932
  4,113
  4,305
Discount rate, %
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,737
  1,639
  1,532
  1,425
  1,318
  1,211
  1,106
  1,002
  900
  801
  611
  535
  463
  395
  333
  277
  226
  182
  144
  111
  85
  63
  46
  33
  23
  15
  10
  6
  4
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings is a life sciences company that is integrated in guiding patient care, providing clinical laboratory and end-to-end drug development services. The Company operates as a healthcare diagnostics company. The Company operates through two segments: LabCorp Diagnostics (LCD) and Covance Drug Development (CDD). The LCD segment is an independent clinical laboratory business, which offers menu of frequently requested and specialty testing through an integrated network of primary and specialty laboratories across the United States. The CDD segment offers drug development services, and provides a range of drug research and development (R&D) and market access services to biopharmaceutical companies and medical device companies across the world. It serves a range of customers, including managed care organizations (MCOs), biopharmaceutical companies, governmental agencies, physicians and other healthcare providers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Laboratory Corporation of America Holdin (LH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.1
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 18
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 96.3%
Total Debt to Equity 106.2%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Equity 14%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
EBITDA Margin 18.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Operating Margin 13.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Net Profit Margin 7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Effective Tax Rate 33.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

LH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $11333 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Laboratory Corporation of America Holdin. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Laboratory Corporation of America Holdin. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for LH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Laboratory Corporation of America Holdin, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Laboratory Corporation of America Holdin.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Laboratory Corporation of America Holdin.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Laboratory Corporation of America Holdin. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LH are equal to 65.8%.

Life of production assets of 23.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Laboratory Corporation of America Holdin operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LH is equal to 4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6971.4 million for Laboratory Corporation of America Holdin - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 98.601 million for Laboratory Corporation of America Holdin is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Laboratory Corporation of America Holdin at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $15.5 billion.

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