Intrinsic value of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc. - LIND

Previous Close

$16.17

  Intrinsic Value

$23.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+45%

Previous close

$16.17

 
Intrinsic value

$23.40

 
Up/down potential

+45%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of LIND stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.70
  11.03
  10.43
  9.88
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
Revenue, $m
  346
  384
  425
  467
  510
  556
  604
  653
  705
  758
  814
  872
  932
  994
  1,059
  1,127
  1,197
  1,270
  1,347
  1,426
  1,509
  1,595
  1,686
  1,780
  1,879
  1,982
  2,089
  2,202
  2,320
  2,443
Variable operating expenses, $m
  227
  252
  278
  305
  334
  364
  394
  426
  460
  495
  528
  565
  604
  645
  687
  730
  776
  824
  873
  925
  978
  1,034
  1,093
  1,154
  1,218
  1,285
  1,354
  1,427
  1,504
  1,584
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  103
  105
  108
  110
  113
  115
  118
  120
  123
  126
  128
  131
  134
  137
  140
  143
  146
  149
  153
  156
  159
Total operating expenses, $m
  312
  339
  367
  396
  427
  459
  491
  525
  561
  598
  633
  673
  714
  758
  802
  848
  896
  947
  999
  1,053
  1,109
  1,168
  1,230
  1,294
  1,361
  1,431
  1,503
  1,580
  1,660
  1,743
Operating income, $m
  34
  46
  58
  71
  84
  98
  113
  128
  144
  160
  181
  199
  218
  237
  257
  279
  301
  324
  348
  373
  400
  427
  456
  486
  518
  551
  585
  622
  660
  700
EBITDA, $m
  59
  73
  88
  103
  119
  136
  154
  172
  192
  212
  233
  254
  277
  300
  325
  350
  377
  405
  434
  464
  496
  529
  563
  599
  637
  677
  718
  762
  807
  855
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  153
Earnings before tax, $m
  22
  31
  41
  51
  61
  72
  84
  96
  108
  121
  138
  152
  166
  182
  198
  214
  232
  250
  269
  289
  310
  331
  354
  378
  403
  429
  456
  485
  515
  547
Tax expense, $m
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  63
  67
  73
  78
  84
  89
  96
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  139
  148
Net income, $m
  16
  23
  30
  37
  45
  53
  61
  70
  79
  88
  100
  111
  122
  133
  144
  157
  169
  182
  196
  211
  226
  242
  258
  276
  294
  313
  333
  354
  376
  399

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  529
  587
  648
  712
  779
  849
  922
  997
  1,076
  1,158
  1,242
  1,331
  1,422
  1,518
  1,617
  1,720
  1,827
  1,939
  2,056
  2,177
  2,304
  2,436
  2,574
  2,718
  2,868
  3,025
  3,190
  3,361
  3,541
  3,730
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  529
  587
  648
  712
  779
  849
  922
  997
  1,076
  1,158
  1,242
  1,331
  1,422
  1,518
  1,617
  1,720
  1,827
  1,939
  2,056
  2,177
  2,304
  2,436
  2,574
  2,718
  2,868
  3,025
  3,190
  3,361
  3,541
  3,730
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.654
  0.654
  0.656
  0.656
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
Average production assets, $m
  317
  352
  389
  427
  467
  509
  553
  598
  645
  695
  745
  798
  853
  911
  970
  1,032
  1,096
  1,164
  1,233
  1,306
  1,382
  1,461
  1,544
  1,631
  1,721
  1,815
  1,914
  2,017
  2,125
  2,238
Working capital, $m
  -144
  -160
  -177
  -195
  -213
  -232
  -252
  -272
  -294
  -316
  -339
  -363
  -389
  -415
  -442
  -470
  -499
  -530
  -561
  -595
  -629
  -665
  -703
  -742
  -783
  -826
  -871
  -918
  -967
  -1,019
Total debt, $m
  232
  276
  322
  370
  421
  474
  529
  586
  645
  707
  771
  837
  907
  979
  1,054
  1,131
  1,212
  1,297
  1,385
  1,476
  1,572
  1,672
  1,776
  1,885
  1,998
  2,117
  2,241
  2,371
  2,506
  2,649
Total liabilities, $m
  399
  443
  489
  538
  588
  641
  696
  753
  812
  874
  938
  1,005
  1,074
  1,146
  1,221
  1,299
  1,380
  1,464
  1,552
  1,644
  1,739
  1,839
  1,943
  2,052
  2,165
  2,284
  2,408
  2,538
  2,674
  2,816
Total equity, $m
  130
  144
  159
  174
  191
  208
  226
  244
  264
  284
  304
  326
  349
  372
  396
  421
  448
  475
  504
  533
  564
  597
  631
  666
  703
  741
  781
  824
  868
  914
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  529
  587
  648
  712
  779
  849
  922
  997
  1,076
  1,158
  1,242
  1,331
  1,423
  1,518
  1,617
  1,720
  1,828
  1,939
  2,056
  2,177
  2,303
  2,436
  2,574
  2,718
  2,868
  3,025
  3,189
  3,362
  3,542
  3,730
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.790
  1.920
  2.030
  2.120
  2.210
  2.280
  2.340
  2.400
  2.450
  2.490
  2.530
  2.570
  2.600
  2.630
  2.660
  2.680
  2.710
  2.730
  2.750
  2.770
  2.790
  2.800
  2.820
  2.830
  2.840
  2.860
  2.870
  2.880
  2.890
  2.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  23
  30
  37
  45
  53
  61
  70
  79
  88
  100
  111
  122
  133
  144
  157
  169
  182
  196
  211
  226
  242
  258
  276
  294
  313
  333
  354
  376
  399
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  51
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  155
Funds from operations, $m
  41
  50
  60
  70
  80
  91
  103
  114
  127
  140
  152
  166
  181
  196
  212
  228
  245
  263
  282
  302
  322
  343
  366
  389
  413
  439
  466
  494
  524
  555
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
Cash from operations, $m
  56
  66
  77
  87
  99
  110
  122
  135
  148
  162
  175
  190
  206
  222
  239
  256
  275
  294
  314
  335
  357
  379
  403
  428
  455
  482
  511
  541
  573
  606
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -225
  -236
  -248
  -261
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  9
  15
  22
  29
  36
  43
  51
  60
  68
  76
  86
  95
  105
  116
  127
  139
  151
  163
  176
  190
  204
  219
  235
  251
  268
  286
  305
  325
  345
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  45
  53
  62
  70
  79
  89
  98
  108
  119
  130
  140
  152
  165
  177
  191
  205
  220
  235
  251
  268
  285
  304
  323
  343
  365
  387
  410
  435
  461
  488
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  32
  39
  47
  55
  63
  71
  80
  90
  100
  110
  120
  131
  142
  154
  167
  180
  193
  208
  223
  238
  254
  271
  289
  308
  328
  348
  370
  393
  416
  441
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  30
  36
  41
  45
  49
  52
  54
  56
  57
  58
  57
  56
  54
  52
  49
  46
  42
  38
  34
  30
  26
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. provides expedition cruising and adventure travel services. The company provides itineraries that feature up-close encounters with wildlife and nature, history, and culture, as well as promote guest interactivity. It operates expeditions on intimately-scaled ships and allows interaction between guests, crew, and the teams of scientists, naturalists, researchers, and photographers that participate in the expeditions. The company operates a fleet of six expedition ships and four seasonal charter vessels. Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. has a strategic alliance with The National Geographic Society. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc. (LIND)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

LIND stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LIND stock intrinsic value calculation we used $310 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LIND stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LIND is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LIND stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $83 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LIND stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.1% for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LIND stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LIND are equal to 91.6%.

Life of production assets of 14.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LIND is equal to -41.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $116.044 million for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.742 million for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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