Intrinsic value of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings - LIND

Previous Close

$13.06

  Intrinsic Value

$20.98

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+61%

Previous close

$13.06

 
Intrinsic value

$20.98

 
Up/down potential

+61%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of LIND stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.00
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  333
  410
  497
  594
  701
  819
  947
  1,085
  1,233
  1,390
  1,557
  1,732
  1,917
  2,110
  2,312
  2,523
  2,743
  2,971
  3,209
  3,456
  3,713
  3,980
  4,257
  4,546
  4,846
  5,157
  5,482
  5,820
  6,172
  6,538
Variable operating expenses, $m
  314
  385
  466
  557
  657
  767
  886
  1,015
  1,153
  1,299
  1,451
  1,615
  1,787
  1,967
  2,155
  2,352
  2,557
  2,770
  2,991
  3,222
  3,461
  3,710
  3,968
  4,237
  4,517
  4,807
  5,110
  5,425
  5,753
  6,095
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  314
  385
  466
  557
  657
  767
  886
  1,015
  1,153
  1,299
  1,451
  1,615
  1,787
  1,967
  2,155
  2,352
  2,557
  2,770
  2,991
  3,222
  3,461
  3,710
  3,968
  4,237
  4,517
  4,807
  5,110
  5,425
  5,753
  6,095
Operating income, $m
  19
  25
  31
  37
  44
  52
  61
  71
  81
  91
  106
  118
  130
  143
  157
  171
  186
  202
  218
  235
  252
  270
  289
  309
  329
  350
  372
  395
  419
  444
EBITDA, $m
  43
  53
  64
  76
  90
  105
  122
  139
  158
  179
  200
  223
  246
  271
  297
  324
  352
  382
  412
  444
  477
  511
  547
  584
  623
  663
  704
  748
  793
  840
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  10
  14
  20
  26
  33
  40
  49
  58
  67
  78
  89
  100
  113
  126
  139
  153
  168
  184
  200
  216
  234
  252
  271
  290
  310
  331
  353
  376
  400
  425
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
Tax expense, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
Net income, $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  530
  651
  790
  944
  1,115
  1,303
  1,506
  1,726
  1,961
  2,210
  2,475
  2,754
  3,048
  3,355
  3,676
  4,011
  4,360
  4,724
  5,102
  5,495
  5,903
  6,328
  6,769
  7,227
  7,704
  8,199
  8,715
  9,252
  9,812
  10,395
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  530
  651
  790
  944
  1,115
  1,303
  1,506
  1,726
  1,961
  2,210
  2,475
  2,754
  3,048
  3,355
  3,676
  4,011
  4,360
  4,724
  5,102
  5,495
  5,903
  6,328
  6,769
  7,227
  7,704
  8,199
  8,715
  9,252
  9,812
  10,395
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.628
  0.630
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
Average production assets, $m
  293
  360
  437
  522
  617
  720
  833
  954
  1,084
  1,222
  1,368
  1,523
  1,685
  1,855
  2,032
  2,218
  2,411
  2,612
  2,821
  3,038
  3,264
  3,498
  3,742
  3,996
  4,259
  4,533
  4,819
  5,116
  5,425
  5,747
Working capital, $m
  -143
  -176
  -213
  -255
  -301
  -352
  -406
  -466
  -529
  -596
  -668
  -743
  -822
  -905
  -992
  -1,082
  -1,177
  -1,275
  -1,377
  -1,483
  -1,593
  -1,707
  -1,826
  -1,950
  -2,079
  -2,213
  -2,352
  -2,497
  -2,648
  -2,805
Total debt, $m
  245
  336
  439
  555
  683
  824
  976
  1,140
  1,316
  1,504
  1,702
  1,911
  2,131
  2,361
  2,601
  2,852
  3,114
  3,386
  3,669
  3,964
  4,269
  4,587
  4,918
  5,261
  5,618
  5,989
  6,376
  6,778
  7,197
  7,634
Total liabilities, $m
  397
  488
  591
  707
  835
  976
  1,128
  1,293
  1,468
  1,656
  1,854
  2,063
  2,283
  2,513
  2,753
  3,004
  3,266
  3,538
  3,821
  4,116
  4,422
  4,739
  5,070
  5,413
  5,770
  6,141
  6,528
  6,930
  7,349
  7,786
Total equity, $m
  133
  164
  198
  237
  280
  327
  378
  433
  492
  555
  621
  691
  765
  842
  923
  1,007
  1,094
  1,186
  1,281
  1,379
  1,482
  1,588
  1,699
  1,814
  1,934
  2,058
  2,188
  2,322
  2,463
  2,609
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  530
  652
  789
  944
  1,115
  1,303
  1,506
  1,726
  1,960
  2,211
  2,475
  2,754
  3,048
  3,355
  3,676
  4,011
  4,360
  4,724
  5,102
  5,495
  5,904
  6,327
  6,769
  7,227
  7,704
  8,199
  8,716
  9,252
  9,812
  10,395
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.840
  2.050
  2.220
  2.340
  2.440
  2.520
  2.580
  2.630
  2.670
  2.710
  2.740
  2.760
  2.790
  2.800
  2.820
  2.830
  2.850
  2.860
  2.870
  2.870
  2.880
  2.890
  2.890
  2.900
  2.910
  2.910
  2.910
  2.920
  2.920
  2.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  28
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  69
  78
  87
  94
  105
  116
  128
  140
  153
  166
  180
  195
  210
  225
  241
  258
  276
  294
  313
  332
  353
  374
  396
Funds from operations, $m
  30
  35
  41
  47
  54
  62
  70
  78
  88
  97
  107
  118
  129
  141
  153
  166
  179
  193
  208
  223
  238
  255
  271
  289
  307
  326
  346
  367
  388
  410
Change in working capital, $m
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
Cash from operations, $m
  59
  68
  78
  89
  100
  112
  125
  138
  151
  165
  178
  193
  208
  224
  240
  256
  274
  291
  310
  329
  349
  369
  390
  413
  436
  460
  485
  512
  539
  568
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -20
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -50
  -57
  -66
  -75
  -84
  -94
  -105
  -116
  -128
  -140
  -153
  -166
  -180
  -195
  -210
  -225
  -241
  -258
  -276
  -294
  -313
  -332
  -353
  -374
New CAPEX, $m
  -58
  -67
  -76
  -85
  -95
  -104
  -113
  -121
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -253
  -264
  -274
  -285
  -297
  -309
  -322
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -87
  -101
  -115
  -131
  -147
  -163
  -178
  -196
  -213
  -230
  -248
  -267
  -286
  -306
  -325
  -346
  -367
  -389
  -412
  -436
  -460
  -485
  -511
  -540
  -568
  -598
  -629
  -662
  -696
Free cash flow, $m
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  79
  91
  103
  116
  128
  140
  152
  164
  176
  187
  198
  209
  220
  230
  241
  251
  262
  272
  283
  294
  306
  318
  330
  343
  357
  371
  386
  402
  419
  437
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  20
  23
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  49
  53
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  99
  114
  130
  147
  162
  178
  194
  210
  225
  240
  252
  267
  281
  294
  309
  322
  337
  350
  365
  379
  395
  411
  427
  445
  463
  482
  502
  523
  546
  569
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  83
  95
  107
  120
  132
  145
  157
  169
  180
  192
  200
  211
  221
  232
  243
  253
  264
  274
  285
  297
  308
  320
  333
  346
  360
  374
  390
  406
  422
  440
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  56
  65
  73
  81
  89
  98
  106
  114
  122
  129
  133
  141
  148
  155
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  198
  206
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  260
  271
  282
  294
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  54
  59
  63
  67
  69
  71
  71
  71
  70
  68
  63
  60
  56
  52
  48
  43
  38
  34
  29
  25
  21
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.8
  93.9
  91.3
  88.8
  86.6
  84.5
  82.7
  80.9
  79.3
  77.8
  76.5
  75.3
  74.1
  73.0
  72.0
  71.0
  70.1
  69.2
  68.4
  67.6
  66.8
  66.1
  65.3
  64.7
  64.0
  63.4
  62.7
  62.1
  61.5
  60.9

Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. provides expedition cruising and adventure travel services. The company provides itineraries that feature up-close encounters with wildlife and nature, history, and culture, as well as promote guest interactivity. It operates expeditions on intimately-scaled ships and allows interaction between guests, crew, and the teams of scientists, naturalists, researchers, and photographers that participate in the expeditions. The company operates a fleet of six expedition ships and four seasonal charter vessels. Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. has a strategic alliance with The National Geographic Society. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lindblad Expeditions Holdings (LIND)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

LIND stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LIND stock intrinsic value calculation we used $266.504 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lindblad Expeditions Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LIND stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LIND is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LIND stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LIND stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LIND stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LIND are equal to 87.9%.

Life of production assets of 14.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lindblad Expeditions Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LIND is equal to -42.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $106.322 million for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.787 million for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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