Intrinsic value of Live Ventures - LIVE

Previous Close

$8.22

  Intrinsic Value

$266.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$8.22

 
Intrinsic value

$266.97

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of LIVE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  35.40
  32.36
  29.62
  27.16
  24.95
  22.95
  21.16
  19.54
  18.09
  16.78
  15.60
  14.54
  13.59
  12.73
  11.95
  11.26
  10.63
  10.07
  9.56
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
Revenue, $m
  206
  273
  353
  449
  561
  690
  836
  999
  1,180
  1,378
  1,593
  1,825
  2,073
  2,337
  2,616
  2,910
  3,220
  3,544
  3,883
  4,237
  4,605
  4,988
  5,387
  5,802
  6,232
  6,680
  7,145
  7,629
  8,132
  8,655
Variable operating expenses, $m
  160
  210
  271
  344
  428
  526
  636
  760
  896
  1,046
  1,204
  1,379
  1,567
  1,766
  1,977
  2,200
  2,434
  2,679
  2,935
  3,203
  3,481
  3,771
  4,072
  4,386
  4,711
  5,050
  5,401
  5,767
  6,147
  6,542
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
Total operating expenses, $m
  175
  226
  287
  360
  445
  543
  653
  778
  914
  1,065
  1,223
  1,398
  1,587
  1,786
  1,998
  2,221
  2,456
  2,701
  2,958
  3,226
  3,505
  3,795
  4,097
  4,411
  4,737
  5,076
  5,428
  5,795
  6,175
  6,571
Operating income, $m
  31
  47
  66
  89
  116
  147
  182
  222
  266
  314
  370
  426
  486
  550
  618
  689
  764
  843
  925
  1,011
  1,100
  1,193
  1,290
  1,391
  1,495
  1,604
  1,717
  1,834
  1,956
  2,083
EBITDA, $m
  40
  57
  79
  104
  134
  168
  207
  250
  298
  351
  408
  470
  536
  607
  681
  760
  842
  929
  1,019
  1,114
  1,212
  1,315
  1,421
  1,532
  1,647
  1,766
  1,891
  2,020
  2,154
  2,294
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  12
  18
  24
  33
  42
  53
  66
  81
  97
  115
  135
  157
  180
  205
  231
  259
  288
  319
  352
  386
  421
  458
  496
  536
  578
  621
  665
  712
  760
  811
Earnings before tax, $m
  18
  29
  42
  57
  74
  94
  116
  141
  169
  198
  235
  269
  306
  345
  387
  430
  476
  523
  573
  625
  679
  735
  794
  855
  918
  983
  1,051
  1,122
  1,196
  1,273
Tax expense, $m
  5
  8
  11
  15
  20
  25
  31
  38
  45
  54
  63
  73
  83
  93
  104
  116
  128
  141
  155
  169
  183
  199
  214
  231
  248
  265
  284
  303
  323
  344
Net income, $m
  13
  21
  30
  41
  54
  69
  85
  103
  123
  145
  171
  197
  224
  252
  282
  314
  347
  382
  419
  456
  496
  537
  580
  624
  670
  718
  768
  819
  873
  929

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  174
  231
  299
  380
  475
  584
  707
  846
  998
  1,166
  1,348
  1,544
  1,754
  1,977
  2,213
  2,462
  2,724
  2,998
  3,285
  3,584
  3,896
  4,220
  4,558
  4,908
  5,273
  5,652
  6,045
  6,454
  6,880
  7,322
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  174
  231
  299
  380
  475
  584
  707
  846
  998
  1,166
  1,348
  1,544
  1,754
  1,977
  2,213
  2,462
  2,724
  2,998
  3,285
  3,584
  3,896
  4,220
  4,558
  4,908
  5,273
  5,652
  6,045
  6,454
  6,880
  7,322
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.184
  1.182
  1.181
  1.182
  1.181
  1.182
  1.182
  1.181
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
Average production assets, $m
  40
  52
  68
  86
  108
  132
  161
  192
  227
  265
  306
  350
  398
  449
  502
  559
  618
  680
  746
  813
  884
  958
  1,034
  1,114
  1,197
  1,283
  1,372
  1,465
  1,561
  1,662
Working capital, $m
  46
  61
  79
  101
  126
  155
  187
  224
  264
  309
  357
  409
  464
  523
  586
  652
  721
  794
  870
  949
  1,032
  1,117
  1,207
  1,300
  1,396
  1,496
  1,601
  1,709
  1,822
  1,939
Total debt, $m
  111
  153
  203
  263
  333
  414
  505
  607
  720
  844
  979
  1,123
  1,278
  1,443
  1,618
  1,802
  1,996
  2,198
  2,410
  2,631
  2,862
  3,101
  3,351
  3,610
  3,879
  4,159
  4,450
  4,752
  5,066
  5,393
Total liabilities, $m
  129
  170
  221
  281
  351
  431
  523
  625
  738
  862
  996
  1,141
  1,296
  1,461
  1,635
  1,820
  2,013
  2,216
  2,428
  2,649
  2,879
  3,119
  3,368
  3,627
  3,897
  4,176
  4,467
  4,770
  5,084
  5,411
Total equity, $m
  45
  60
  78
  99
  124
  152
  185
  221
  261
  304
  352
  403
  458
  516
  578
  643
  711
  783
  857
  935
  1,017
  1,102
  1,190
  1,281
  1,376
  1,475
  1,578
  1,685
  1,796
  1,911
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  174
  230
  299
  380
  475
  583
  708
  846
  999
  1,166
  1,348
  1,544
  1,754
  1,977
  2,213
  2,463
  2,724
  2,999
  3,285
  3,584
  3,896
  4,221
  4,558
  4,908
  5,273
  5,651
  6,045
  6,455
  6,880
  7,322
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.450
  2.540
  2.610
  2.650
  2.690
  2.720
  2.740
  2.750
  2.760
  2.770
  2.780
  2.790
  2.790
  2.800
  2.800
  2.800
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  21
  30
  41
  54
  69
  85
  103
  123
  145
  171
  197
  224
  252
  282
  314
  347
  382
  419
  456
  496
  537
  580
  624
  670
  718
  768
  819
  873
  929
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  33
  38
  39
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  78
  86
  94
  103
  112
  121
  131
  141
  151
  162
  174
  185
  198
  210
Funds from operations, $m
  23
  32
  43
  56
  72
  89
  109
  131
  156
  182
  210
  241
  274
  309
  346
  385
  426
  468
  513
  559
  608
  658
  710
  765
  821
  880
  941
  1,005
  1,071
  1,140
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
Cash from operations, $m
  11
  17
  25
  35
  47
  61
  77
  95
  115
  138
  162
  189
  218
  250
  283
  319
  356
  396
  437
  480
  525
  572
  621
  672
  725
  780
  837
  896
  958
  1,022
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -33
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -131
  -141
  -151
  -162
  -174
  -185
  -198
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -100
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -59
  -67
  -74
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -111
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -151
  -162
  -174
  -186
  -198
  -211
  -224
  -237
  -251
  -267
  -282
  -298
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  -1
  3
  8
  14
  22
  32
  43
  56
  71
  87
  106
  126
  149
  173
  199
  226
  255
  286
  318
  352
  387
  423
  461
  501
  542
  585
  630
  676
  724
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  34
  42
  50
  60
  70
  81
  91
  102
  113
  124
  134
  145
  155
  165
  175
  184
  193
  203
  212
  221
  230
  240
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  302
  314
  327
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  34
  42
  50
  60
  70
  81
  91
  102
  113
  124
  134
  145
  155
  165
  175
  184
  193
  203
  212
  221
  230
  240
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  302
  314
  327
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  30
  41
  53
  68
  84
  103
  123
  145
  169
  195
  222
  251
  281
  314
  348
  383
  420
  458
  498
  539
  582
  626
  673
  721
  771
  822
  876
  932
  991
  1,051
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  18
  26
  36
  47
  60
  74
  91
  109
  129
  151
  174
  200
  227
  255
  286
  318
  351
  386
  423
  461
  501
  542
  585
  629
  675
  723
  773
  825
  880
  936
Discount rate, %
  10.10
  10.61
  11.14
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.05
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.31
  25.52
  26.80
  28.14
  29.55
  31.02
  32.57
  34.20
  35.91
  37.71
  39.59
  41.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  17
  21
  26
  30
  33
  36
  37
  38
  37
  35
  33
  29
  26
  22
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Live Ventures Incorporated is a holding company for diversified businesses. The Company's segments include Manufacturing Segment, Marketplace Platform Segment and Services Segment. The Manufacturing Segment consists of Marquis Industries, Inc. The Marketplace Platform segment consists of livedeal.com and Modern Everyday, Inc. The Services Segment consists of the local exchange carrier billings business and velocity local. It operates LiveDeal.com, a real-time deal engine that connects restaurants across the United States and consumers through an online mobile platform. It is focused on the residential, commercial and hospitality end-markets. As of September 30, 2016, the Company operated its business through 13 divisions, each specializing in a distinct area of the business, such as Best Buy flooring Source, Marquis Carpet, Best Buy Hard surface, A-O Industries, Quantum Textiles and B and H Tufters.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Live Ventures (LIVE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 1.3
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 4.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 139.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 62.5%
Total Debt to Equity 70.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 46%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.8%
Return On Total Capital 51.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.1%
Return On Equity 120%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.5%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.1%
EBITDA Margin 11.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.1%
Operating Margin 2.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -34.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.8%
Net Profit Margin 22.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.4%
Effective Tax Rate -260%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -89%
Payout Ratio 0%

LIVE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LIVE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $152.060932 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Live Ventures. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Live Ventures. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LIVE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 35.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.1%, whose default value for LIVE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Live Ventures, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Live Ventures.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LIVE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $15 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LIVE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 16% for Live Ventures.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Live Ventures. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LIVE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LIVE are equal to 19.2%.

Life of production assets of 7.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Live Ventures operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LIVE is equal to 22.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $33.584308 million for Live Ventures - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 1.86 million for Live Ventures is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Live Ventures at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Live Ventures Inc to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-14-18 02:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ IIROC Trading Resumption - LIVE   [Jun-12-18 04:06PM  CNW Group]
▶ Live Ventures Inc to Host Earnings Call   [12:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Live Ventures Announces Fiscal Year-End 2017 Results   [Dec-27-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Live Ventures Featured in Las Vegas Review Journal   [Jul-31-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Live Ventures, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Live Ventures, Inc. : June 29, 2017   [Jun-29-17 03:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Live Ventures to Defend Against Lawsuit   [08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Live Ventures, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of February 1, 2017   [Feb-01-17 09:45AM  Accesswire]

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