Intrinsic value of Live Ventures - LIVE

Previous Close

$14.60

  Intrinsic Value

$1,500

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$14.60

 
Intrinsic value

$1,500

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LIVE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  139.39
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  79
  126
  195
  292
  424
  598
  822
  1,103
  1,449
  1,864
  2,354
  2,924
  3,574
  4,308
  5,126
  6,028
  7,011
  8,077
  9,221
  10,444
  11,742
  13,114
  14,559
  16,075
  17,663
  19,321
  21,049
  22,850
  24,723
  26,671
  28,696
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  91
  141
  211
  306
  432
  593
  797
  1,046
  1,346
  1,700
  2,111
  2,581
  3,111
  3,701
  4,352
  5,062
  5,831
  6,658
  7,540
  8,477
  9,468
  10,511
  11,606
  12,752
  13,949
  15,198
  16,498
  17,850
  19,256
  20,718
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
Total operating expenses, $m
  77
  113
  163
  234
  329
  456
  617
  822
  1,072
  1,372
  1,727
  2,139
  2,609
  3,140
  3,731
  4,382
  5,093
  5,863
  6,691
  7,574
  8,511
  9,503
  10,547
  11,643
  12,790
  13,988
  15,238
  16,539
  17,892
  19,299
  20,762
Operating income, $m
  2
  14
  32
  59
  95
  142
  204
  282
  377
  492
  628
  785
  965
  1,169
  1,395
  1,645
  1,918
  2,213
  2,531
  2,870
  3,230
  3,610
  4,011
  4,432
  4,872
  5,332
  5,812
  6,311
  6,831
  7,372
  7,933
EBITDA, $m
  5
  14
  33
  60
  97
  145
  208
  287
  384
  501
  639
  800
  983
  1,190
  1,421
  1,675
  1,953
  2,254
  2,577
  2,922
  3,288
  3,676
  4,084
  4,512
  4,961
  5,429
  5,917
  6,426
  6,955
  7,505
  8,077
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  14
  19
  25
  32
  41
  51
  63
  76
  90
  106
  124
  142
  163
  184
  207
  232
  257
  284
  312
  342
  372
  404
  437
  472
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  13
  31
  56
  90
  136
  194
  268
  358
  467
  595
  744
  914
  1,106
  1,320
  1,555
  1,812
  2,090
  2,388
  2,707
  3,045
  3,403
  3,780
  4,175
  4,588
  5,020
  5,470
  5,939
  6,427
  6,934
  7,462
Tax expense, $m
  -13
  3
  8
  15
  24
  37
  52
  72
  97
  126
  161
  201
  247
  299
  356
  420
  489
  564
  645
  731
  822
  919
  1,020
  1,127
  1,239
  1,355
  1,477
  1,604
  1,735
  1,872
  2,015
Net income, $m
  18
  9
  22
  41
  66
  99
  142
  195
  261
  341
  435
  543
  667
  807
  963
  1,135
  1,323
  1,526
  1,743
  1,976
  2,223
  2,484
  2,759
  3,047
  3,349
  3,665
  3,993
  4,336
  4,692
  5,062
  5,447

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  53
  83
  129
  192
  279
  394
  541
  726
  954
  1,227
  1,550
  1,925
  2,353
  2,836
  3,375
  3,968
  4,616
  5,317
  6,071
  6,875
  7,730
  8,633
  9,584
  10,583
  11,628
  12,719
  13,857
  15,043
  16,276
  17,558
  18,891
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  52
  83
  129
  192
  279
  394
  541
  726
  954
  1,227
  1,550
  1,925
  2,353
  2,836
  3,375
  3,968
  4,616
  5,317
  6,071
  6,875
  7,730
  8,633
  9,584
  10,583
  11,628
  12,719
  13,857
  15,043
  16,276
  17,558
  18,891
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.519
  1.518
  1.512
  1.521
  1.520
  1.518
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
  1.519
Average production assets, $m
  2
  3
  5
  7
  11
  15
  21
  28
  36
  47
  59
  73
  89
  108
  128
  151
  175
  202
  231
  261
  294
  328
  364
  402
  442
  483
  526
  571
  618
  667
  717
Working capital, $m
  11
  19
  30
  44
  64
  91
  125
  168
  220
  283
  358
  444
  543
  655
  779
  916
  1,066
  1,228
  1,402
  1,587
  1,785
  1,993
  2,213
  2,443
  2,685
  2,937
  3,200
  3,473
  3,758
  4,054
  4,362
Total debt, $m
  17
  33
  57
  91
  138
  200
  279
  379
  501
  648
  822
  1,024
  1,254
  1,514
  1,804
  2,123
  2,471
  2,849
  3,254
  3,687
  4,147
  4,633
  5,144
  5,682
  6,244
  6,831
  7,443
  8,081
  8,744
  9,434
  10,151
Total liabilities, $m
  29
  45
  69
  103
  150
  212
  291
  391
  513
  660
  834
  1,036
  1,266
  1,526
  1,816
  2,135
  2,483
  2,861
  3,266
  3,699
  4,159
  4,645
  5,156
  5,694
  6,256
  6,843
  7,455
  8,093
  8,756
  9,446
  10,163
Total equity, $m
  24
  38
  59
  89
  129
  182
  250
  336
  441
  567
  716
  889
  1,087
  1,310
  1,559
  1,833
  2,133
  2,456
  2,805
  3,176
  3,571
  3,989
  4,428
  4,889
  5,372
  5,876
  6,402
  6,950
  7,520
  8,112
  8,728
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  53
  83
  128
  192
  279
  394
  541
  727
  954
  1,227
  1,550
  1,925
  2,353
  2,836
  3,375
  3,968
  4,616
  5,317
  6,071
  6,875
  7,730
  8,634
  9,584
  10,583
  11,628
  12,719
  13,857
  15,043
  16,276
  17,558
  18,891
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.708
  0.850
  0.960
  1.030
  1.070
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.442
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  18
  9
  22
  41
  66
  99
  142
  195
  261
  341
  435
  543
  667
  807
  963
  1,135
  1,323
  1,526
  1,743
  1,976
  2,223
  2,484
  2,759
  3,047
  3,349
  3,665
  3,993
  4,336
  4,692
  5,062
  5,447
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  46
  52
  59
  66
  73
  80
  88
  97
  105
  114
  124
  133
  143
Funds from operations, $m
  4
  10
  23
  42
  68
  102
  146
  201
  269
  350
  446
  558
  685
  829
  989
  1,165
  1,358
  1,566
  1,790
  2,028
  2,282
  2,550
  2,832
  3,128
  3,438
  3,761
  4,099
  4,450
  4,815
  5,195
  5,590
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  7
  10
  15
  20
  26
  34
  43
  52
  63
  75
  87
  99
  112
  124
  137
  150
  162
  174
  186
  197
  209
  220
  231
  241
  252
  263
  274
  285
  296
  308
Cash from operations, $m
  6
  3
  13
  27
  48
  75
  112
  158
  216
  287
  372
  471
  586
  717
  865
  1,028
  1,208
  1,404
  1,616
  1,843
  2,085
  2,341
  2,612
  2,897
  3,196
  3,509
  3,836
  4,176
  4,531
  4,899
  5,283
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -88
  -97
  -105
  -114
  -124
  -133
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -11
  -15
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -55
  -62
  -69
  -77
  -84
  -93
  -102
  -111
  -120
  -129
  -140
  -150
  -161
  -173
  -184
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  1
  10
  24
  43
  69
  103
  147
  202
  269
  350
  445
  555
  681
  823
  980
  1,153
  1,342
  1,547
  1,766
  2,000
  2,248
  2,511
  2,787
  3,076
  3,379
  3,696
  4,026
  4,370
  4,727
  5,099
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  17
  24
  34
  47
  62
  79
  100
  122
  147
  174
  202
  231
  260
  290
  319
  348
  377
  405
  433
  460
  486
  512
  537
  562
  587
  612
  638
  663
  690
  717
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -7
  22
  24
  34
  47
  62
  79
  100
  122
  147
  174
  202
  231
  260
  290
  319
  348
  377
  405
  433
  460
  486
  512
  537
  562
  587
  612
  638
  663
  690
  717
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  23
  35
  58
  90
  131
  183
  247
  324
  417
  524
  647
  786
  941
  1,112
  1,299
  1,502
  1,720
  1,952
  2,199
  2,460
  2,734
  3,022
  3,324
  3,639
  3,967
  4,308
  4,664
  5,033
  5,417
  5,816
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -18
  -14
  -21
  -29
  -40
  -53
  -68
  -86
  -105
  -126
  -149
  -173
  -198
  -223
  -249
  -274
  -299
  -324
  -348
  -372
  -395
  -417
  -439
  -461
  -483
  -504
  -526
  -548
  -570
  -592
  -616
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  9
  14
  29
  50
  78
  114
  161
  219
  290
  375
  474
  588
  718
  864
  1,025
  1,203
  1,396
  1,604
  1,827
  2,065
  2,317
  2,583
  2,863
  3,156
  3,462
  3,782
  4,116
  4,463
  4,825
  5,200
Discount rate, %
 
  5.30
  5.57
  5.84
  6.14
  6.44
  6.76
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.52
  9.99
  10.49
  11.02
  11.57
  12.15
  12.76
  13.39
  14.06
  14.77
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.95
  18.85
  19.79
  20.78
  21.82
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  8
  12
  24
  39
  57
  77
  100
  123
  147
  170
  191
  208
  220
  228
  229
  226
  217
  204
  187
  167
  146
  125
  104
  85
  67
  52
  39
  28
  20
  14
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2
  85.2

Live Ventures Incorporated is a holding company for diversified businesses. The Company's segments include Manufacturing Segment, Marketplace Platform Segment and Services Segment. The Manufacturing Segment consists of Marquis Industries, Inc. The Marketplace Platform segment consists of livedeal.com and Modern Everyday, Inc. The Services Segment consists of the local exchange carrier billings business and velocity local. It operates LiveDeal.com, a real-time deal engine that connects restaurants across the United States and consumers through an online mobile platform. It is focused on the residential, commercial and hospitality end-markets. As of September 30, 2016, the Company operated its business through 13 divisions, each specializing in a distinct area of the business, such as Best Buy flooring Source, Marquis Carpet, Best Buy Hard surface, A-O Industries, Quantum Textiles and B and H Tufters.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Live Ventures (LIVE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 2.3
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 139.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 62.5%
Total Debt to Equity 70.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 46%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.8%
Return On Total Capital 51.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.1%
Return On Equity 120%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.5%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.1%
EBITDA Margin 11.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.1%
Operating Margin 2.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -34.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.8%
Net Profit Margin 22.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.4%
Effective Tax Rate -260%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -89%
Payout Ratio 0%

LIVE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LIVE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $79 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Live Ventures. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Live Ventures. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LIVE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.3%, whose default value for LIVE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Live Ventures, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Live Ventures.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LIVE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $21 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LIVE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Live Ventures.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Live Ventures. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LIVE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LIVE are equal to 2.5%.

Life of production assets of 0.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Live Ventures operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LIVE is equal to 15.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $24 million for Live Ventures - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 2.011 million for Live Ventures is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Live Ventures at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Live Ventures Featured in Las Vegas Review Journal   [Jul-31-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Live Ventures, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Live Ventures, Inc. : June 29, 2017   [Jun-29-17 03:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Live Ventures to Defend Against Lawsuit   [08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Live Ventures, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of February 1, 2017   [Feb-01-17 09:45AM  Accesswire]
▶ Live Ventures Incorporated Completes Reverse Stock Split   [Dec-09-16 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ A Look at Five Stocks on the Move on Monday   [Aug-15-16 01:24PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of LIVE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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