Intrinsic value of LivaNova - LIVN

Previous Close

$97.47

  Intrinsic Value

$2.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

Previous close

$97.47

 
Intrinsic value

$2.55

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LIVN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.40
  11.66
  10.99
  10.39
  9.86
  9.37
  8.93
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
Revenue, $m
  1,138
  1,270
  1,410
  1,557
  1,710
  1,870
  2,037
  2,211
  2,392
  2,581
  2,776
  2,980
  3,191
  3,410
  3,639
  3,876
  4,123
  4,380
  4,648
  4,926
  5,217
  5,520
  5,836
  6,167
  6,511
  6,871
  7,248
  7,641
  8,053
  8,484
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,084
  1,195
  1,312
  1,434
  1,563
  1,697
  1,837
  1,982
  2,134
  2,291
  2,323
  2,493
  2,670
  2,853
  3,044
  3,243
  3,449
  3,664
  3,888
  4,122
  4,365
  4,618
  4,883
  5,159
  5,448
  5,749
  6,064
  6,393
  6,738
  7,098
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,084
  1,195
  1,312
  1,434
  1,563
  1,697
  1,837
  1,982
  2,134
  2,291
  2,323
  2,493
  2,670
  2,853
  3,044
  3,243
  3,449
  3,664
  3,888
  4,122
  4,365
  4,618
  4,883
  5,159
  5,448
  5,749
  6,064
  6,393
  6,738
  7,098
Operating income, $m
  54
  76
  98
  122
  147
  174
  201
  229
  259
  290
  454
  487
  521
  557
  594
  633
  674
  716
  759
  805
  852
  902
  953
  1,007
  1,064
  1,123
  1,184
  1,248
  1,316
  1,386
EBITDA, $m
  239
  267
  296
  327
  359
  393
  428
  464
  502
  542
  583
  626
  670
  716
  764
  814
  866
  920
  976
  1,035
  1,096
  1,159
  1,226
  1,295
  1,367
  1,443
  1,522
  1,605
  1,691
  1,782
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  8
  13
  19
  24
  30
  36
  42
  49
  56
  63
  70
  78
  86
  95
  103
  112
  122
  131
  141
  152
  163
  175
  186
  199
  212
  226
  240
  255
  270
  286
Earnings before tax, $m
  45
  62
  80
  98
  117
  138
  159
  180
  203
  227
  383
  409
  435
  463
  491
  521
  552
  584
  618
  653
  689
  727
  767
  808
  852
  897
  944
  994
  1,045
  1,099
Tax expense, $m
  12
  17
  22
  26
  32
  37
  43
  49
  55
  61
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
Net income, $m
  33
  45
  58
  72
  86
  100
  116
  132
  148
  165
  280
  298
  318
  338
  359
  380
  403
  426
  451
  477
  503
  531
  560
  590
  622
  655
  689
  725
  763
  803

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,816
  3,145
  3,490
  3,853
  4,233
  4,630
  5,043
  5,474
  5,922
  6,388
  6,872
  7,375
  7,898
  8,442
  9,006
  9,594
  10,205
  10,842
  11,504
  12,194
  12,914
  13,664
  14,447
  15,264
  16,117
  17,008
  17,940
  18,914
  19,933
  21,000
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,816
  3,145
  3,490
  3,853
  4,233
  4,630
  5,043
  5,474
  5,922
  6,388
  6,872
  7,375
  7,898
  8,442
  9,006
  9,594
  10,205
  10,842
  11,504
  12,194
  12,914
  13,664
  14,447
  15,264
  16,117
  17,008
  17,940
  18,914
  19,933
  21,000
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
Average production assets, $m
  913
  1,019
  1,131
  1,248
  1,372
  1,500
  1,634
  1,774
  1,919
  2,070
  2,227
  2,390
  2,559
  2,735
  2,918
  3,109
  3,307
  3,513
  3,727
  3,951
  4,184
  4,427
  4,681
  4,946
  5,222
  5,511
  5,813
  6,128
  6,459
  6,804
Working capital, $m
  511
  570
  633
  699
  768
  840
  915
  993
  1,074
  1,159
  1,247
  1,338
  1,433
  1,531
  1,634
  1,740
  1,851
  1,967
  2,087
  2,212
  2,342
  2,479
  2,621
  2,769
  2,924
  3,085
  3,254
  3,431
  3,616
  3,809
Total debt, $m
  232
  322
  417
  517
  621
  731
  844
  963
  1,086
  1,214
  1,347
  1,486
  1,629
  1,779
  1,934
  2,096
  2,264
  2,439
  2,621
  2,811
  3,009
  3,215
  3,430
  3,655
  3,890
  4,135
  4,391
  4,659
  4,939
  5,232
Total liabilities, $m
  774
  865
  960
  1,060
  1,164
  1,273
  1,387
  1,505
  1,629
  1,757
  1,890
  2,028
  2,172
  2,321
  2,477
  2,638
  2,806
  2,981
  3,164
  3,353
  3,551
  3,758
  3,973
  4,198
  4,432
  4,677
  4,934
  5,201
  5,482
  5,775
Total equity, $m
  2,042
  2,280
  2,531
  2,794
  3,069
  3,356
  3,656
  3,969
  4,293
  4,631
  4,982
  5,347
  5,726
  6,120
  6,530
  6,956
  7,399
  7,860
  8,340
  8,841
  9,362
  9,906
  10,474
  11,066
  11,685
  12,331
  13,007
  13,713
  14,452
  15,225
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,816
  3,145
  3,491
  3,854
  4,233
  4,629
  5,043
  5,474
  5,922
  6,388
  6,872
  7,375
  7,898
  8,441
  9,007
  9,594
  10,205
  10,841
  11,504
  12,194
  12,913
  13,664
  14,447
  15,264
  16,117
  17,008
  17,941
  18,914
  19,934
  21,000
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.110
  0.140
  0.160
  0.190
  0.200
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  45
  58
  72
  86
  100
  116
  132
  148
  165
  280
  298
  318
  338
  359
  380
  403
  426
  451
  477
  503
  531
  560
  590
  622
  655
  689
  725
  763
  803
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  185
  191
  198
  205
  212
  219
  227
  235
  244
  252
  129
  139
  149
  159
  170
  181
  192
  204
  217
  230
  243
  257
  272
  288
  304
  320
  338
  356
  375
  396
Funds from operations, $m
  218
  237
  256
  276
  297
  320
  343
  367
  392
  418
  409
  437
  466
  497
  528
  561
  595
  631
  668
  706
  746
  788
  832
  878
  925
  975
  1,027
  1,082
  1,139
  1,198
Change in working capital, $m
  56
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  102
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
Cash from operations, $m
  162
  177
  193
  210
  229
  248
  268
  289
  310
  333
  321
  346
  372
  398
  426
  454
  484
  515
  548
  581
  616
  652
  690
  729
  771
  813
  858
  905
  954
  1,005
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -170
  -181
  -192
  -204
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -257
  -272
  -288
  -304
  -320
  -338
  -356
  -375
New CAPEX, $m
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -243
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -289
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -345
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -148
  -159
  -171
  -184
  -196
  -209
  -221
  -235
  -248
  -263
  -277
  -292
  -308
  -325
  -342
  -360
  -379
  -398
  -419
  -441
  -463
  -486
  -511
  -537
  -564
  -593
  -622
  -654
  -686
  -720
Free cash flow, $m
  13
  18
  22
  27
  33
  39
  46
  54
  62
  71
  44
  53
  63
  73
  84
  94
  106
  117
  129
  141
  153
  166
  179
  193
  207
  221
  236
  251
  267
  284
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  86
  90
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  149
  155
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  225
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  193
  193
  192
  191
  190
  187
  184
  181
  177
  172
  71
  67
  61
  56
  51
  46
  40
  35
  29
  24
  18
  13
  8
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  279
  283
  287
  291
  294
  296
  298
  299
  300
  300
  204
  205
  205
  205
  206
  208
  208
  210
  211
  214
  216
  219
  223
  227
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  293
  301
  309
  318
  327
  336
  344
  353
  362
  371
  249
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  314
  327
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  441
  466
  492
  519
  548
  577
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -227
  -238
  -251
  -263
  -275
  -288
  -300
  -312
  -325
  -338
  -351
  -365
  -379
  -394
  -410
  -426
  -443
  -461
  -480
  -500
  -522
  -544
  -568
  -592
  -619
  -646
  -676
  -706
  -739
  -773
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  66
  62
  59
  55
  52
  48
  44
  41
  37
  33
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -177
  -180
  -183
  -187
  -191
  -196
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  63
  57
  51
  45
  40
  35
  30
  26
  21
  18
  -49
  -45
  -42
  -39
  -35
  -32
  -28
  -25
  -22
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.1
  92.7
  89.8
  87.3
  85.1
  83.1
  81.4
  79.9
  78.6
  77.4
  76.9
  76.5
  76.2
  75.9
  75.7
  75.5
  75.3
  75.2
  75.1
  75.0
  74.9
  74.9
  74.9
  74.8
  74.8
  74.8
  74.8
  74.8
  74.8
  74.8

LivaNova PLC is a medical device company focused on the development and delivery of therapeutic solutions. The Company's segments include Cardiac Surgery, Cardiac Rhythm Management, Neuromodulation and Other. The Cardiac Surgery segment is engaged in the development, production and sale of cardiovascular surgery products. Cardiac Surgery products include oxygenators, heart-lung machines, autotransfusion, mechanical heart valves and tissue heart valves. The Cardiac Rhythm Management segment is engaged in the development, manufacturing and marketing of products for the diagnosis, treatment, and management of heart rhythm disorders and heart failure. Cardiac Rhythm Management products include high-voltage defibrillators Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy device (CRT-D) and low-voltage pacemakers. The Neuromodulation segment is engaged in the design, development and marketing of neuromodulation therapy for the treatment of drug-resistant epilepsy and treatment resistant depression.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  LivaNova (LIVN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

LIVN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LIVN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1012.277 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by LivaNova. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of LivaNova. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LIVN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LIVN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of LivaNova, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of LivaNova.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LIVN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LIVN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for LivaNova.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for LivaNova. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LIVN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LIVN are equal to 80.2%.

Life of production assets of 17.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in LivaNova operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LIVN is equal to 44.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1815.314 million for LivaNova - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.592 million for LivaNova is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of LivaNova at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ LivaNova PLC (LIVN)Hedge Funds Are Snapping Up   [Dec-10-18 12:28PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Why L Brands, Devon Energy, and LivaNova Slumped Today   [Nov-20-18 04:49PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Here's Why LivaNova Dropped Today   [01:10PM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivaNova Reports Third Quarter 2018 Results   [06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ LivaNova Reports Second Quarter 2018 Results   [06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Livanova PLC to Host Earnings Call   [06:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ LivaNova Welcomes William Kozy to Board of Directors   [Jun-13-18 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Here's Why LivaNova Rose as Much as 13% Today   [May-31-18 03:32PM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivaNova: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 09:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ LivaNova Reports First Quarter 2018 Results   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ LivaNova Completes Acquisition of TandemLife   [Apr-04-18 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ LivaNova reports 4Q loss   [Feb-28-18 08:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Livanova PLC to Host Earnings Call   [06:50AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ LivaNova to Present at the Barclays and Cowen Conferences   [Feb-15-18 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ LivaNova to Acquire TandemLife   [Feb-14-18 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ 4 Growth Stocks to Pick From a Choppy MedTech Market   [Dec-14-17 03:05PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ LivaNova to Acquire ImThera Medical, Inc.   [Dec-05-17 03:01AM  Business Wire]
▶ LivaNova posts 3Q profit   [Nov-02-17 08:25AM  Associated Press]

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