Intrinsic value of Lumber Liquidators Holdings - LL

Previous Close

$18.21

  Intrinsic Value

$84.31

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+363%

Previous close

$18.21

 
Intrinsic value

$84.31

 
Up/down potential

+363%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of LL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  1,102
  1,178
  1,257
  1,339
  1,424
  1,513
  1,606
  1,702
  1,803
  1,908
  2,017
  2,131
  2,250
  2,375
  2,505
  2,641
  2,783
  2,932
  3,088
  3,251
  3,422
  3,601
  3,789
  3,985
  4,191
  4,407
  4,633
  4,871
  5,119
  5,380
Variable operating expenses, $m
  242
  259
  276
  294
  313
  332
  353
  374
  396
  419
  442
  467
  493
  520
  549
  578
  610
  642
  676
  712
  750
  789
  830
  873
  918
  965
  1,015
  1,067
  1,121
  1,178
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  882
  901
  921
  941
  962
  983
  1,005
  1,027
  1,050
  1,073
  1,096
  1,121
  1,145
  1,170
  1,196
  1,222
  1,249
  1,277
  1,305
  1,334
  1,363
  1,393
  1,424
  1,455
  1,487
  1,520
  1,553
  1,587
  1,622
  1,658
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,124
  1,160
  1,197
  1,235
  1,275
  1,315
  1,358
  1,401
  1,446
  1,492
  1,538
  1,588
  1,638
  1,690
  1,745
  1,800
  1,859
  1,919
  1,981
  2,046
  2,113
  2,182
  2,254
  2,328
  2,405
  2,485
  2,568
  2,654
  2,743
  2,836
Operating income, $m
  -22
  18
  59
  103
  149
  197
  248
  301
  357
  416
  479
  544
  612
  684
  760
  840
  924
  1,013
  1,107
  1,206
  1,310
  1,419
  1,535
  1,657
  1,786
  1,922
  2,065
  2,217
  2,376
  2,544
EBITDA, $m
  -9
  32
  75
  120
  166
  216
  267
  322
  379
  439
  502
  568
  638
  711
  789
  870
  956
  1,047
  1,142
  1,243
  1,349
  1,460
  1,578
  1,703
  1,834
  1,972
  2,118
  2,272
  2,434
  2,606
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
Earnings before tax, $m
  -23
  16
  57
  100
  145
  192
  242
  294
  349
  407
  468
  532
  599
  670
  744
  823
  906
  993
  1,085
  1,182
  1,284
  1,392
  1,506
  1,626
  1,752
  1,886
  2,027
  2,175
  2,332
  2,498
Tax expense, $m
  0
  4
  15
  27
  39
  52
  65
  79
  94
  110
  126
  144
  162
  181
  201
  222
  245
  268
  293
  319
  347
  376
  407
  439
  473
  509
  547
  587
  630
  674
Net income, $m
  -23
  12
  42
  73
  106
  140
  177
  215
  255
  297
  342
  388
  437
  489
  543
  601
  661
  725
  792
  863
  937
  1,016
  1,099
  1,187
  1,279
  1,377
  1,480
  1,588
  1,703
  1,823

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  440
  470
  502
  535
  569
  604
  641
  680
  720
  762
  805
  851
  898
  948
  1,000
  1,054
  1,111
  1,171
  1,233
  1,298
  1,366
  1,438
  1,512
  1,591
  1,673
  1,759
  1,850
  1,944
  2,044
  2,148
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  440
  470
  502
  535
  569
  604
  641
  680
  720
  762
  805
  851
  898
  948
  1,000
  1,054
  1,111
  1,171
  1,233
  1,298
  1,366
  1,438
  1,512
  1,591
  1,673
  1,759
  1,850
  1,944
  2,044
  2,148
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.505
  2.506
  2.504
  2.503
  2.503
  2.505
  2.505
  2.503
  2.504
  2.504
  2.506
  2.504
  2.506
  2.505
  2.505
  2.506
  2.505
  2.504
  2.504
  2.505
  2.505
  2.504
  2.506
  2.505
  2.505
  2.505
  2.504
  2.506
  2.504
  2.505
Average production assets, $m
  126
  134
  143
  153
  162
  173
  183
  194
  206
  217
  230
  243
  257
  271
  286
  301
  317
  334
  352
  371
  390
  411
  432
  454
  478
  502
  528
  555
  584
  613
Working capital, $m
  208
  223
  238
  253
  269
  286
  304
  322
  341
  361
  381
  403
  425
  449
  473
  499
  526
  554
  584
  614
  647
  681
  716
  753
  792
  833
  876
  921
  968
  1,017
Total debt, $m
  30
  46
  62
  79
  97
  115
  134
  154
  175
  197
  219
  243
  268
  293
  320
  348
  378
  409
  441
  475
  510
  547
  586
  626
  669
  713
  760
  809
  861
  915
Total liabilities, $m
  228
  244
  260
  277
  295
  313
  332
  352
  373
  394
  417
  441
  465
  491
  518
  546
  576
  606
  639
  672
  708
  745
  783
  824
  867
  911
  958
  1,007
  1,059
  1,113
Total equity, $m
  212
  227
  242
  258
  274
  291
  309
  328
  347
  367
  388
  410
  433
  457
  482
  508
  536
  564
  594
  626
  658
  693
  729
  767
  806
  848
  892
  937
  985
  1,035
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  440
  471
  502
  535
  569
  604
  641
  680
  720
  761
  805
  851
  898
  948
  1,000
  1,054
  1,112
  1,170
  1,233
  1,298
  1,366
  1,438
  1,512
  1,591
  1,673
  1,759
  1,850
  1,944
  2,044
  2,148
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.140
  0.200
  0.260
  0.310
  0.350
  0.400
  0.430
  0.470
  0.500
  0.540
  0.570
  0.590
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -23
  12
  42
  73
  106
  140
  177
  215
  255
  297
  342
  388
  437
  489
  543
  601
  661
  725
  792
  863
  937
  1,016
  1,099
  1,187
  1,279
  1,377
  1,480
  1,588
  1,703
  1,823
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  26
  57
  89
  123
  159
  196
  235
  276
  320
  365
  413
  463
  516
  572
  631
  693
  758
  827
  900
  976
  1,057
  1,142
  1,232
  1,327
  1,427
  1,532
  1,644
  1,761
  1,885
Change in working capital, $m
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
Cash from operations, $m
  -23
  12
  42
  74
  107
  142
  178
  217
  257
  300
  344
  391
  440
  493
  547
  605
  666
  730
  798
  869
  944
  1,023
  1,107
  1,195
  1,288
  1,386
  1,490
  1,599
  1,714
  1,835
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
Free cash flow, $m
  -43
  -9
  20
  50
  82
  115
  151
  188
  226
  267
  310
  355
  403
  453
  505
  561
  620
  681
  746
  815
  888
  964
  1,044
  1,129
  1,219
  1,314
  1,414
  1,519
  1,630
  1,747
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  37
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  52
  19
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  9
  36
  67
  100
  134
  170
  207
  247
  289
  332
  379
  427
  478
  532
  589
  649
  712
  779
  849
  923
  1,001
  1,083
  1,170
  1,262
  1,358
  1,460
  1,568
  1,681
  1,801
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -37
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -28
  -5
  21
  51
  83
  117
  152
  189
  228
  269
  311
  357
  404
  454
  507
  563
  622
  683
  749
  817
  890
  966
  1,047
  1,132
  1,222
  1,317
  1,417
  1,522
  1,634
  1,751
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -27
  -5
  18
  42
  64
  85
  103
  118
  131
  141
  148
  152
  154
  153
  149
  143
  135
  126
  115
  104
  92
  80
  69
  58
  48
  38
  30
  24
  18
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  93.2
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7
  92.7

Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. is a multi-channel specialty retailer of hardwood flooring, and hardwood flooring enhancements and accessories. The Company offers hardwood species, engineered hardwood, laminate and resilient vinyl flooring direct to the consumer. Its product categories include Solid and Engineered Hardwood; Laminate; Bamboo, Cork, Vinyl Plank and Other, Moldings and Accessories, and Non-Merchandise Services. It features the renewable flooring products, bamboo and cork, and provides a selection of flooring enhancements and accessories, including moldings, noise-reducing underlay, adhesives and flooring tools. It operates in a holding company structure with Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. serving as its parent company and certain direct and indirect subsidiaries, including Lumber Liquidators, Inc., Lumber Liquidators Services, LLC, Lumber Liquidators Production, LLC, and Lumber Liquidators Canada ULC, conducting its operations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lumber Liquidators Holdings (LL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -7.5
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -18.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -59.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -20.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 17.3%
Total Debt to Equity 17.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -14.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Return On Total Capital -24.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Return On Equity -27.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.6%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
EBITDA Margin -7.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Operating Margin -9.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Net Profit Margin -7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 26.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

LL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1029 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lumber Liquidators Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Lumber Liquidators Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lumber Liquidators Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lumber Liquidators Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 22%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $863 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Lumber Liquidators Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lumber Liquidators Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LL stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LL are equal to 11.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lumber Liquidators Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LL is equal to 18.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $198 million for Lumber Liquidators Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28 million for Lumber Liquidators Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lumber Liquidators Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Lumber Liquidators Holdings Shares Fell 20% in July   [Aug-10-18 02:02PM  Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Lumber Liquidators Shares Plunge as Higher Costs Weigh on Margins   [Jul-31-18 07:44PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Lumber Liquidators: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lumber Liquidators Q2 Earnings Preview   [Jul-30-18 03:27PM  Benzinga]
▶ Eight Stocks That Are Poised to Change Direction   [Jun-18-18 03:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Lumber Liquidators Marks Milestone of 400 Stores   [Jun-04-18 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ The '60 Minutes' Effect On Stocks   [May-07-18 07:23AM  Benzinga]
▶ Lumber Liquidators: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Bad weather's economic impact   [Mar-07-18 01:40PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Why Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc. Stock Fell Tuesday   [Feb-27-18 12:39PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Lumber Liquidators beats 4Q profit forecasts   [06:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Top Stocks to Buy in February   [Feb-06-18 03:19PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Lumber Liquidators Down 5% in Last 5 Days   [Jan-31-18 01:57PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Why Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. Surged 99% in 2017   [Jan-11-18 02:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Lumber Liquidators Clears Technical Benchmark, Hitting 80-Plus RS Rating   [Dec-08-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Lumber Liquidators Sees RS Rating Climb To 72   [Dec-01-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
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