Intrinsic value of Alliant Energy Corporation - LNT

Previous Close

$51.49

  Intrinsic Value

$41.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-19%

Previous close

$51.49

 
Intrinsic value

$41.73

 
Up/down potential

-19%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of LNT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 12.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,606
  3,689
  3,783
  3,890
  4,008
  4,137
  4,278
  4,431
  4,595
  4,771
  4,960
  5,161
  5,376
  5,603
  5,845
  6,101
  6,372
  6,659
  6,962
  7,282
  7,619
  7,975
  8,351
  8,746
  9,162
  9,601
  10,062
  10,548
  11,058
  11,596
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,863
  2,900
  2,943
  2,991
  3,044
  3,102
  3,165
  3,233
  3,307
  3,386
  2,224
  2,315
  2,411
  2,513
  2,621
  2,736
  2,858
  2,986
  3,122
  3,266
  3,417
  3,577
  3,745
  3,922
  4,109
  4,306
  4,513
  4,730
  4,959
  5,200
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,863
  2,900
  2,943
  2,991
  3,044
  3,102
  3,165
  3,233
  3,307
  3,386
  2,224
  2,315
  2,411
  2,513
  2,621
  2,736
  2,858
  2,986
  3,122
  3,266
  3,417
  3,577
  3,745
  3,922
  4,109
  4,306
  4,513
  4,730
  4,959
  5,200
Operating income, $m
  742
  788
  840
  899
  964
  1,036
  1,113
  1,197
  1,288
  1,385
  2,736
  2,847
  2,965
  3,090
  3,224
  3,365
  3,515
  3,673
  3,840
  4,016
  4,202
  4,399
  4,606
  4,824
  5,053
  5,295
  5,550
  5,817
  6,099
  6,395
EBITDA, $m
  2,505
  2,563
  2,629
  2,703
  2,785
  2,874
  2,972
  3,078
  3,192
  3,315
  3,446
  3,586
  3,735
  3,893
  4,061
  4,239
  4,427
  4,627
  4,837
  5,059
  5,294
  5,541
  5,802
  6,077
  6,366
  6,670
  6,991
  7,328
  7,683
  8,057
Interest expense (income), $m
  192
  321
  333
  347
  363
  380
  400
  421
  445
  470
  497
  527
  558
  591
  627
  664
  705
  747
  792
  839
  890
  943
  999
  1,058
  1,120
  1,185
  1,254
  1,327
  1,404
  1,484
  1,569
Earnings before tax, $m
  421
  455
  493
  536
  584
  636
  692
  753
  818
  888
  2,209
  2,289
  2,374
  2,464
  2,559
  2,660
  2,768
  2,881
  3,000
  3,126
  3,260
  3,400
  3,548
  3,704
  3,868
  4,041
  4,222
  4,414
  4,615
  4,827
Tax expense, $m
  114
  123
  133
  145
  158
  172
  187
  203
  221
  240
  596
  618
  641
  665
  691
  718
  747
  778
  810
  844
  880
  918
  958
  1,000
  1,044
  1,091
  1,140
  1,192
  1,246
  1,303
Net income, $m
  308
  332
  360
  392
  426
  464
  505
  549
  597
  648
  1,613
  1,671
  1,733
  1,798
  1,868
  1,942
  2,020
  2,103
  2,190
  2,282
  2,380
  2,482
  2,590
  2,704
  2,824
  2,950
  3,082
  3,222
  3,369
  3,523

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  15,745
  16,108
  16,522
  16,986
  17,501
  18,066
  18,682
  19,348
  20,065
  20,835
  21,659
  22,538
  23,474
  24,469
  25,524
  26,643
  27,827
  29,079
  30,402
  31,799
  33,273
  34,827
  36,466
  38,192
  40,010
  41,924
  43,939
  46,060
  48,290
  50,637
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  15,745
  16,108
  16,522
  16,986
  17,501
  18,066
  18,682
  19,348
  20,065
  20,835
  21,659
  22,538
  23,474
  24,469
  25,524
  26,643
  27,827
  29,079
  30,402
  31,799
  33,273
  34,827
  36,466
  38,192
  40,010
  41,924
  43,939
  46,060
  48,290
  50,637
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
Average production assets, $m
  12,086
  12,364
  12,682
  13,039
  13,434
  13,868
  14,340
  14,851
  15,402
  15,993
  16,626
  17,300
  18,019
  18,782
  19,593
  20,451
  21,360
  22,321
  23,337
  24,409
  25,540
  26,734
  27,991
  29,316
  30,712
  32,182
  33,728
  35,356
  37,068
  38,869
Working capital, $m
  -187
  -192
  -197
  -202
  -208
  -215
  -222
  -230
  -239
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -280
  -291
  -304
  -317
  -331
  -346
  -362
  -379
  -396
  -415
  -434
  -455
  -476
  -499
  -523
  -548
  -575
  -603
Total debt, $m
  6,173
  6,427
  6,718
  7,045
  7,407
  7,804
  8,237
  8,705
  9,209
  9,751
  10,330
  10,948
  11,606
  12,305
  13,047
  13,834
  14,666
  15,546
  16,476
  17,458
  18,494
  19,587
  20,739
  21,953
  23,231
  24,577
  25,993
  27,484
  29,052
  30,701
Total liabilities, $m
  11,069
  11,324
  11,615
  11,941
  12,303
  12,701
  13,133
  13,601
  14,106
  14,647
  15,226
  15,844
  16,502
  17,201
  17,943
  18,730
  19,562
  20,442
  21,372
  22,355
  23,391
  24,483
  25,635
  26,849
  28,127
  29,473
  30,889
  32,380
  33,948
  35,598
Total equity, $m
  4,676
  4,784
  4,907
  5,045
  5,198
  5,366
  5,548
  5,746
  5,959
  6,188
  6,433
  6,694
  6,972
  7,267
  7,581
  7,913
  8,265
  8,636
  9,029
  9,444
  9,882
  10,344
  10,830
  11,343
  11,883
  12,452
  13,050
  13,680
  14,342
  15,039
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  15,745
  16,108
  16,522
  16,986
  17,501
  18,067
  18,681
  19,347
  20,065
  20,835
  21,659
  22,538
  23,474
  24,468
  25,524
  26,643
  27,827
  29,078
  30,401
  31,799
  33,273
  34,827
  36,465
  38,192
  40,010
  41,925
  43,939
  46,060
  48,290
  50,637
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.320
  1.340
  1.370
  1.400
  1.430
  1.450
  1.480
  1.510
  1.550
  1.580
  1.610
  1.640
  1.660
  1.690
  1.720
  1.750
  1.770
  1.800
  1.820
  1.850
  1.870
  1.890
  1.910
  1.940
  1.950
  1.970
  1.990
  2.010
  2.030
  2.040
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  308
  332
  360
  392
  426
  464
  505
  549
  597
  648
  1,613
  1,671
  1,733
  1,798
  1,868
  1,942
  2,020
  2,103
  2,190
  2,282
  2,380
  2,482
  2,590
  2,704
  2,824
  2,950
  3,082
  3,222
  3,369
  3,523
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,763
  1,775
  1,788
  1,803
  1,820
  1,839
  1,859
  1,881
  1,904
  1,930
  710
  739
  770
  803
  837
  874
  913
  954
  997
  1,043
  1,091
  1,142
  1,196
  1,253
  1,312
  1,375
  1,441
  1,511
  1,584
  1,661
Funds from operations, $m
  2,070
  2,107
  2,148
  2,195
  2,246
  2,303
  2,364
  2,430
  2,502
  2,578
  2,323
  2,410
  2,503
  2,601
  2,706
  2,816
  2,933
  3,057
  3,188
  3,325
  3,471
  3,624
  3,786
  3,957
  4,136
  4,325
  4,524
  4,733
  4,953
  5,185
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Cash from operations, $m
  2,074
  2,111
  2,153
  2,201
  2,253
  2,310
  2,371
  2,438
  2,510
  2,587
  2,333
  2,421
  2,514
  2,613
  2,718
  2,829
  2,947
  3,072
  3,203
  3,342
  3,489
  3,643
  3,806
  3,977
  4,158
  4,348
  4,548
  4,758
  4,980
  5,212
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -506
  -517
  -528
  -542
  -557
  -574
  -593
  -613
  -635
  -658
  -683
  -710
  -739
  -770
  -803
  -837
  -874
  -913
  -954
  -997
  -1,043
  -1,091
  -1,142
  -1,196
  -1,253
  -1,312
  -1,375
  -1,441
  -1,511
  -1,584
New CAPEX, $m
  -238
  -278
  -318
  -357
  -395
  -434
  -472
  -511
  -551
  -591
  -632
  -675
  -718
  -764
  -810
  -859
  -909
  -961
  -1,016
  -1,072
  -1,131
  -1,193
  -1,258
  -1,325
  -1,396
  -1,469
  -1,547
  -1,628
  -1,712
  -1,801
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -744
  -795
  -846
  -899
  -952
  -1,008
  -1,065
  -1,124
  -1,186
  -1,249
  -1,315
  -1,385
  -1,457
  -1,534
  -1,613
  -1,696
  -1,783
  -1,874
  -1,970
  -2,069
  -2,174
  -2,284
  -2,400
  -2,521
  -2,649
  -2,781
  -2,922
  -3,069
  -3,223
  -3,385
Free cash flow, $m
  1,330
  1,316
  1,307
  1,302
  1,300
  1,302
  1,306
  1,314
  1,325
  1,338
  1,017
  1,035
  1,056
  1,079
  1,105
  1,134
  1,164
  1,198
  1,234
  1,273
  1,314
  1,358
  1,406
  1,456
  1,509
  1,566
  1,626
  1,689
  1,756
  1,827
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  229
  255
  291
  327
  362
  397
  433
  468
  504
  541
  579
  618
  658
  699
  742
  786
  832
  880
  930
  982
  1,036
  1,093
  1,152
  1,214
  1,278
  1,346
  1,417
  1,491
  1,568
  1,649
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  229
  255
  291
  327
  362
  397
  433
  468
  504
  541
  579
  618
  658
  699
  742
  786
  832
  880
  930
  982
  1,036
  1,093
  1,152
  1,214
  1,278
  1,346
  1,417
  1,491
  1,568
  1,649
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,559
  1,571
  1,598
  1,629
  1,662
  1,699
  1,739
  1,782
  1,829
  1,879
  1,596
  1,653
  1,714
  1,779
  1,847
  1,920
  1,997
  2,078
  2,164
  2,255
  2,350
  2,451
  2,557
  2,669
  2,787
  2,912
  3,042
  3,180
  3,325
  3,477
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -91
  -108
  -123
  -138
  -153
  -168
  -183
  -198
  -213
  -229
  -245
  -261
  -278
  -295
  -313
  -332
  -352
  -372
  -393
  -415
  -438
  -462
  -487
  -513
  -540
  -569
  -598
  -630
  -663
  -697
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,468
  1,463
  1,475
  1,490
  1,509
  1,531
  1,556
  1,585
  1,616
  1,650
  1,352
  1,392
  1,436
  1,483
  1,534
  1,588
  1,645
  1,706
  1,771
  1,840
  1,912
  1,989
  2,071
  2,157
  2,247
  2,343
  2,444
  2,550
  2,662
  2,780
Discount rate, %
  9.30
  9.77
  10.25
  10.77
  11.30
  11.87
  12.46
  13.09
  13.74
  14.43
  15.15
  15.91
  16.70
  17.54
  18.41
  19.33
  20.30
  21.32
  22.38
  23.50
  24.68
  25.91
  27.20
  28.57
  29.99
  31.49
  33.07
  34.72
  36.46
  38.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,343
  1,215
  1,101
  990
  883
  781
  684
  592
  507
  429
  286
  237
  193
  154
  122
  94
  71
  53
  38
  27
  19
  13
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Alliant Energy Corporation operates as a regulated investor-owned public utility holding company. The Company's segments include Utility and Non-regulated, Parent and Other. The Utility segment includes the operations of Interstate Power and Light Company (IPL) and Wisconsin Power and Light Company (WPL), which serve retail customers in Iowa and Wisconsin. The Utility segment includes utility electric operations, utility gas operations and utility other, which includes steam operations and the unallocated portions of the utility business. Its Non-regulated, Parent and Other segment includes the operations of Alliant Energy Resources, LLC and its subsidiaries; Alliant Energy Corporate Services, Inc. (Corporate Services); the Alliant Energy parent company, and any Alliant Energy parent company consolidating adjustments. IPL and WPL own a portfolio of electric generating units located in Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota with a fuel mix, including coal, natural gas and renewable resources.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alliant Energy Corporation (LNT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.7
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -41.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 18.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 106.2%
Total Debt to Equity 112.4%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 31.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Operating Margin 16.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Net Profit Margin 11.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Effective Tax Rate 13.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Payout Ratio 69.9%

LNT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LNT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3535 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alliant Energy Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Alliant Energy Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LNT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.3%, whose default value for LNT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alliant Energy Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alliant Energy Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LNT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LNT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Alliant Energy Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alliant Energy Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LNT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LNT are equal to 335.2%.

Life of production assets of 23.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alliant Energy Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LNT is equal to -5.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4585.7 million for Alliant Energy Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 236.076 million for Alliant Energy Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alliant Energy Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $12.2 billion.

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