Intrinsic value of El Pollo Loco Holdings - LOCO

Previous Close

$10.40

  Intrinsic Value

$21.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+110%

Previous close

$10.40

 
Intrinsic value

$21.79

 
Up/down potential

+110%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LOCO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.04
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  380
  415
  452
  491
  530
  572
  615
  660
  706
  755
  805
  857
  912
  969
  1,028
  1,089
  1,153
  1,220
  1,290
  1,363
  1,439
  1,518
  1,601
  1,688
  1,779
  1,874
  1,973
  2,077
  2,187
  2,301
  2,420
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  356
  386
  416
  448
  481
  515
  551
  588
  627
  667
  684
  727
  772
  819
  869
  920
  973
  1,029
  1,087
  1,147
  1,211
  1,277
  1,346
  1,419
  1,494
  1,574
  1,657
  1,744
  1,835
  1,930
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  345
  356
  386
  416
  448
  481
  515
  551
  588
  627
  667
  684
  727
  772
  819
  869
  920
  973
  1,029
  1,087
  1,147
  1,211
  1,277
  1,346
  1,419
  1,494
  1,574
  1,657
  1,744
  1,835
  1,930
Operating income, $m
  35
  59
  67
  74
  83
  91
  100
  109
  118
  128
  138
  174
  185
  196
  208
  221
  234
  247
  261
  276
  291
  307
  324
  342
  360
  380
  400
  421
  443
  466
  490
EBITDA, $m
  51
  91
  99
  108
  117
  126
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  200
  213
  226
  239
  254
  268
  284
  300
  316
  334
  352
  371
  391
  412
  434
  457
  481
  506
  532
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  56
  62
  69
  77
  84
  92
  101
  109
  118
  127
  162
  172
  182
  193
  205
  216
  229
  242
  255
  269
  284
  299
  315
  332
  349
  368
  387
  407
  428
  450
Tax expense, $m
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
Net income, $m
  18
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  67
  73
  80
  86
  93
  118
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  312
  329

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  471
  513
  558
  606
  655
  706
  759
  815
  872
  932
  994
  1,059
  1,126
  1,196
  1,269
  1,345
  1,424
  1,506
  1,592
  1,682
  1,776
  1,874
  1,977
  2,084
  2,196
  2,313
  2,436
  2,565
  2,699
  2,840
  2,988
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  469
  513
  558
  606
  655
  706
  759
  815
  872
  932
  994
  1,059
  1,126
  1,196
  1,269
  1,345
  1,424
  1,506
  1,592
  1,682
  1,776
  1,874
  1,977
  2,084
  2,196
  2,313
  2,436
  2,565
  2,699
  2,840
  2,988
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.810
  0.809
  0.810
  0.810
  0.809
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.809
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
Average production assets, $m
  174
  190
  207
  224
  242
  261
  281
  302
  323
  345
  368
  392
  417
  443
  470
  498
  527
  558
  589
  623
  657
  694
  732
  771
  813
  856
  902
  949
  999
  1,051
  1,106
Working capital, $m
  -31
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -211
Total debt, $m
  104
  123
  143
  164
  185
  208
  231
  256
  281
  307
  334
  363
  392
  423
  455
  488
  523
  559
  597
  636
  678
  721
  766
  813
  862
  914
  967
  1,024
  1,083
  1,145
  1,210
Total liabilities, $m
  206
  225
  245
  266
  287
  310
  333
  358
  383
  409
  436
  465
  494
  525
  557
  590
  625
  661
  699
  738
  780
  823
  868
  915
  964
  1,016
  1,069
  1,126
  1,185
  1,247
  1,312
Total equity, $m
  265
  288
  313
  340
  367
  396
  426
  457
  489
  523
  558
  594
  632
  671
  712
  754
  799
  845
  893
  944
  996
  1,051
  1,109
  1,169
  1,232
  1,298
  1,367
  1,439
  1,514
  1,593
  1,676
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  471
  513
  558
  606
  654
  706
  759
  815
  872
  932
  994
  1,059
  1,126
  1,196
  1,269
  1,344
  1,424
  1,506
  1,592
  1,682
  1,776
  1,874
  1,977
  2,084
  2,196
  2,314
  2,436
  2,565
  2,699
  2,840
  2,988
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.392
  0.430
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  18
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  67
  73
  80
  86
  93
  118
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  312
  329
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
Funds from operations, $m
  45
  73
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
  221
  233
  246
  259
  273
  287
  303
  318
  335
  352
  370
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  49
  76
  81
  87
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  228
  240
  253
  267
  281
  296
  311
  327
  344
  362
  381
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -35
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
Free cash flow, $m
  14
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  88
  94
  100
  100
  106
  113
  120
  128
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  246
  259
  272
  286
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -4
  72
  77
  83
  89
  94
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  273
  287
  302
  318
  334
  351
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  49
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  126
  133
  141
  150
  158
  167
  177
  186
  197
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
Discount rate, %
 
  4.70
  4.94
  5.18
  5.44
  5.71
  6.00
  6.30
  6.61
  6.94
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.77
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.09
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.71
  17.55
  18.42
  19.35
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  47
  47
  48
  49
  50
  50
  49
  49
  47
  46
  41
  39
  36
  34
  31
  28
  25
  22
  20
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. specializes in fire-grilling citrus-marinated chicken and operates in the limited service restaurant (LSR) segment. The Company's menu features its signature product, citrus-marinated fire-grilled chicken, and a range of Mexican-inspired entrees that it creates from chicken. Every day in every restaurant, the Company marinates and fire-grills its chicken over open flames, and hand-slices whole tomatoes, avocados, serrano peppers and cilantro to make its salsas, guacamole and cilantro dressings from scratch. The Company also offers burritos, salads, tostadas, bowls, stuffed quesadillas and chicken entrees. The Company's entrees include Chicken Avocado Burrito, Under 500 Calorie entrees, Ultimate Pollo Bowl, and Stuffed Chicken Avocado Quesadilla. As of December 28, 2016, the Company had 460 restaurants, consisting of 201 Company-operated and 259 franchised restaurants. The Company also offers additional proteins, such as shrimp, carnitas and beef.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  El Pollo Loco Holdings (LOCO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.2
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 33.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 19.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 21.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 39.2%
Total Debt to Equity 39.2%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 4.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Equity 7.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.4%
EBITDA Margin 13.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Operating Margin 9.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 41.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 129.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

LOCO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LOCO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $380 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by El Pollo Loco Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of El Pollo Loco Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LOCO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.7%, whose default value for LOCO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of El Pollo Loco Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of El Pollo Loco Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LOCO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LOCO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for El Pollo Loco Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for El Pollo Loco Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LOCO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LOCO are equal to 45.7%.

Life of production assets of 26.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in El Pollo Loco Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LOCO is equal to -8.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $265 million for El Pollo Loco Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.652 million for El Pollo Loco Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of El Pollo Loco Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
FRGI Fiesta Restaur 20.10 24.83  buy
BOJA Bojangles' 12.70 14.36  hold
JACK Jack in the Bo 103.03 11.15  str.sell
CMG Chipotle Mexic 313.39 433.31  buy
TACO Del Taco Resta 12.10 13.52  hold
WING Wingstop 41.45 4.36  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ El Pollo Loco reports 3Q loss   [05:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why El Pollo Loco Holdings Stock Dropped Today   [Nov-03-17 07:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ El Pollo Loco Launches Four New Handcrafted Bowls   [Oct-09-17 09:02AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ El Pollo Loco Launches New Fire-Grilled Chicken Burritos   [Sep-04-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ El Pollo Loco beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-05-17 01:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ El Pollo Loco Q2 Earnings Fall Short   [Aug-04-17 11:45AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ El Pollo Loco Launches New Taco Platters   [Jul-24-17 09:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ El Pollo Loco to Present at Investor Conferences in June   [May-24-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ El Pollo Loco beats 1Q profit forecasts   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Shake Shack Dives On Same-Store Sales; Wingstop, Del Taco, El Pollo Loco Top   [May-04-17 04:48PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Retail And E-Commerce News And Stocks To Watch   [03:19PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ El Pollo Loco CEO to retire   [Mar-10-17 03:45PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ El Pollo Loco CEO to retire   [03:45PM  American City Business Journals]
Financial statements of LOCO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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