Intrinsic value of LivePerson - LPSN

Previous Close

$19.98

  Intrinsic Value

$0.19

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$19.98

 
Intrinsic value

$0.19

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LPSN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
Revenue, $m
  250
  282
  317
  354
  392
  433
  475
  519
  565
  613
  663
  715
  769
  825
  883
  943
  1,006
  1,072
  1,140
  1,211
  1,284
  1,361
  1,441
  1,525
  1,612
  1,703
  1,798
  1,898
  2,001
  2,110
Variable operating expenses, $m
  270
  304
  340
  379
  419
  461
  505
  551
  600
  650
  692
  747
  803
  861
  922
  985
  1,051
  1,120
  1,191
  1,265
  1,342
  1,422
  1,506
  1,593
  1,684
  1,779
  1,878
  1,982
  2,091
  2,204
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  270
  304
  340
  379
  419
  461
  505
  551
  600
  650
  692
  747
  803
  861
  922
  985
  1,051
  1,120
  1,191
  1,265
  1,342
  1,422
  1,506
  1,593
  1,684
  1,779
  1,878
  1,982
  2,091
  2,204
Operating income, $m
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
EBITDA, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
Earnings before tax, $m
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  265
  300
  337
  376
  417
  460
  505
  552
  600
  651
  704
  760
  817
  876
  938
  1,003
  1,069
  1,139
  1,211
  1,287
  1,365
  1,447
  1,532
  1,621
  1,713
  1,810
  1,911
  2,017
  2,127
  2,242
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  265
  300
  337
  376
  417
  460
  505
  552
  600
  651
  704
  760
  817
  876
  938
  1,003
  1,069
  1,139
  1,211
  1,287
  1,365
  1,447
  1,532
  1,621
  1,713
  1,810
  1,911
  2,017
  2,127
  2,242
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.943
  0.940
  0.941
  0.941
  0.940
  0.941
  0.941
  0.940
  0.942
  0.942
  0.942
  0.941
  0.941
  0.942
  0.941
  0.940
  0.941
  0.941
  0.941
  0.941
  0.941
  0.941
  0.941
  0.941
  0.941
  0.941
  0.941
  0.941
  0.941
  0.941
Average production assets, $m
  90
  102
  114
  128
  142
  156
  171
  187
  204
  221
  239
  258
  277
  298
  319
  341
  363
  387
  411
  437
  464
  491
  520
  551
  582
  615
  649
  685
  723
  762
Working capital, $m
  -48
  -54
  -61
  -68
  -76
  -83
  -92
  -100
  -109
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -148
  -159
  -170
  -182
  -194
  -207
  -220
  -234
  -248
  -263
  -278
  -294
  -311
  -329
  -347
  -366
  -386
  -407
Total debt, $m
  13
  27
  41
  57
  73
  90
  108
  127
  146
  167
  188
  210
  232
  256
  281
  306
  333
  361
  389
  419
  451
  483
  517
  552
  589
  628
  668
  710
  754
  800
Total liabilities, $m
  106
  119
  134
  150
  166
  183
  201
  220
  239
  259
  280
  302
  325
  349
  373
  399
  426
  453
  482
  512
  543
  576
  610
  645
  682
  720
  761
  803
  847
  892
Total equity, $m
  160
  181
  203
  226
  251
  277
  304
  332
  361
  392
  424
  457
  492
  528
  565
  604
  644
  686
  729
  775
  822
  871
  922
  976
  1,031
  1,090
  1,150
  1,214
  1,280
  1,350
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  266
  300
  337
  376
  417
  460
  505
  552
  600
  651
  704
  759
  817
  877
  938
  1,003
  1,070
  1,139
  1,211
  1,287
  1,365
  1,447
  1,532
  1,621
  1,713
  1,810
  1,911
  2,017
  2,127
  2,242
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.080
  0.150
  0.200
  0.250
  0.290
  0.330
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  1
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -112
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
Free cash flow, $m
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  40
  43
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  75
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  142
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  53
  57
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  86
  90
  95
  91
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  167
  176
  184
  194
  205
  215
  226
  238
  250
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -204
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.8
  93.9
  91.1
  88.6
  86.2
  83.9
  81.8
  79.8
  77.8
  76.0
  74.5
  73.0
  71.5
  70.1
  68.8
  67.5
  66.2
  64.9
  63.7
  62.5
  61.3
  60.2
  59.1
  58.0
  57.0
  55.9
  54.9
  53.9
  52.9
  52.0

LivePerson, Inc. (Liveperson) is a provider of mobile and online business messaging technologies that power digital communication between brands and consumers. The Company's segments include Business and Consumer. The Business segment enables brands to leverage its cloud-based LiveEngage's intelligence engine. The Consumer segment facilitates online transactions between independent service providers (Experts) and individual consumers (Users) seeking information and knowledge for a fee through mobile and online messaging. The Company's platform, LiveEngage, enables businesses to create a meaningful connection with consumers by offering messaging as a preferred channel of communication. The Company's products and services include LiveEngage, Professional Services and Consumer Offering. As a cloud computing or software-as-a-service (SaaS) provider, LivePerson provides solutions on a hosted basis. LiveEngage enables the combination of real time on-site data and off-site behavioral data.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  LivePerson (LPSN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -44.8
Price to Sales 5.2
Price to Book 8.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 46.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 89.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -11.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Return On Total Capital -17.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.1%
Return On Equity -17.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.1%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.4%
EBITDA Margin -0.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Operating Margin -8.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5%
Pre-Tax Margin -9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.3%
Net Profit Margin -11.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.6%
Effective Tax Rate -30%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -68.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

LPSN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LPSN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $218.876 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by LivePerson. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of LivePerson. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LPSN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LPSN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of LivePerson, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of LivePerson.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LPSN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 108.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LPSN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for LivePerson.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for LivePerson. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LPSN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LPSN are equal to 36.1%.

Life of production assets of 7.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in LivePerson operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LPSN is equal to -19.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $140.063 million for LivePerson - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 60.718 million for LivePerson is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of LivePerson at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ LivePerson and 14% Growth Go Back a Long Way   [Nov-09-18 09:16AM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivePerson: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chatbot maker Conversable acquired by LivePerson   [Oct-02-18 09:01AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Dallas entrepreneur selling business to public New York company   [Oct-01-18 02:13PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ LivePerson Acquires Conversable   [10:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ LivePerson: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-01-18 06:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Analysts Expect Breakeven For LivePerson Inc (NASDAQ:LPSN)   [Jun-27-18 07:37AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Why MBA grads are saying 'no' to Wall Street   [Jun-06-18 01:17PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Why Shares of LivePerson Surged Today   [May-04-18 05:13PM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivePerson Parties Like It's 2015   [May-03-18 08:09PM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivePerson: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why LivePerson Stock Is Surging Today   [01:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivePerson reports 4Q loss   [Feb-20-18 06:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ LivePerson, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [01:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ At $11.6, Is It Time To Buy LivePerson Inc (NASDAQ:LPSN)?   [Jan-03-18 07:38AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Why Shares of LivePerson Jumped Today   [Dec-14-17 12:52PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why LivePerson Shares Got Clobbered Today   [Nov-02-17 01:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivePerson Is Growing Again   [11:36AM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivePerson reports 3Q loss   [06:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ LivePerson CEO on How AI, Bots Are Changing the Workforce   [Oct-23-17 06:54PM  Bloomberg Video]

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