Intrinsic value of LivePerson - LPSN

Previous Close

$23.25

  Intrinsic Value

$0.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$23.25

 
Intrinsic value

$0.21

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LPSN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  223
  229
  234
  241
  248
  256
  265
  274
  285
  296
  307
  320
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  413
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  542
  568
  595
  623
  653
  685
  718
Variable operating expenses, $m
  243
  248
  254
  261
  269
  277
  286
  296
  307
  318
  321
  334
  348
  363
  378
  395
  412
  431
  451
  471
  493
  516
  540
  566
  593
  621
  651
  683
  716
  750
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  243
  248
  254
  261
  269
  277
  286
  296
  307
  318
  321
  334
  348
  363
  378
  395
  412
  431
  451
  471
  493
  516
  540
  566
  593
  621
  651
  683
  716
  750
Operating income, $m
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
EBITDA, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  238
  243
  249
  256
  264
  273
  282
  292
  303
  314
  327
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  526
  550
  576
  604
  633
  663
  695
  729
  764
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  238
  243
  249
  256
  264
  273
  282
  292
  303
  314
  327
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  526
  550
  576
  604
  633
  663
  695
  729
  764
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.937
  0.942
  0.940
  0.941
  0.939
  0.938
  0.940
  0.938
  0.941
  0.943
  0.939
  0.941
  0.941
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.941
  0.939
  0.940
  0.940
  0.939
  0.940
  0.941
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
Average production assets, $m
  129
  132
  135
  139
  143
  148
  153
  158
  164
  171
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  285
  299
  313
  328
  343
  360
  377
  395
  415
Working capital, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
Total debt, $m
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  16
  19
  23
  28
  32
  37
  43
  48
  54
  61
  67
  74
  82
  90
  98
  107
  116
  126
  137
  148
  159
  171
  184
  197
  211
Total liabilities, $m
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  109
  112
  116
  121
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
Total equity, $m
  143
  146
  150
  154
  159
  164
  170
  176
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
  381
  399
  418
  439
  460
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  238
  243
  249
  256
  264
  273
  282
  292
  303
  314
  327
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  525
  550
  576
  604
  633
  663
  695
  729
  764
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.030
  0.040
  0.060
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.170
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.240
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
Funds from operations, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  28
  29
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  74
  78
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.3
  96.7
  95.0
  93.4
  91.7
  90.1
  88.5
  86.9
  85.4
  83.8
  82.8
  81.7
  80.6
  79.5
  78.4
  77.3
  76.3
  75.2
  74.1
  73.0
  72.0
  70.9
  69.9
  68.8
  67.8
  66.8
  65.8
  64.7
  63.8
  62.8

LivePerson, Inc. (Liveperson) is a provider of mobile and online business messaging technologies that power digital communication between brands and consumers. The Company's segments include Business and Consumer. The Business segment enables brands to leverage its cloud-based LiveEngage's intelligence engine. The Consumer segment facilitates online transactions between independent service providers (Experts) and individual consumers (Users) seeking information and knowledge for a fee through mobile and online messaging. The Company's platform, LiveEngage, enables businesses to create a meaningful connection with consumers by offering messaging as a preferred channel of communication. The Company's products and services include LiveEngage, Professional Services and Consumer Offering. As a cloud computing or software-as-a-service (SaaS) provider, LivePerson provides solutions on a hosted basis. LiveEngage enables the combination of real time on-site data and off-site behavioral data.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  LivePerson (LPSN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -52.1
Price to Sales 6.1
Price to Book 9.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 54.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 104.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -11.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Return On Total Capital -17.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.1%
Return On Equity -17.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.1%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.4%
EBITDA Margin -0.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Operating Margin -8.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5%
Pre-Tax Margin -9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.3%
Net Profit Margin -11.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.6%
Effective Tax Rate -30%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -68.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

LPSN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LPSN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $219 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by LivePerson. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of LivePerson. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LPSN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LPSN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of LivePerson, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of LivePerson.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LPSN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 108.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LPSN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for LivePerson.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for LivePerson. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LPSN stock is equal to 4.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LPSN are equal to 57.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in LivePerson operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LPSN is equal to -2.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $140 million for LivePerson - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56 million for LivePerson is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of LivePerson at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Analysts Expect Breakeven For LivePerson Inc (NASDAQ:LPSN)   [Jun-27-18 07:37AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Why MBA grads are saying 'no' to Wall Street   [Jun-06-18 01:17PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Why Shares of LivePerson Surged Today   [May-04-18 05:13PM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivePerson Parties Like It's 2015   [May-03-18 08:09PM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivePerson: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why LivePerson Stock Is Surging Today   [01:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivePerson reports 4Q loss   [Feb-20-18 06:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ LivePerson, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [01:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ At $11.6, Is It Time To Buy LivePerson Inc (NASDAQ:LPSN)?   [Jan-03-18 07:38AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Why Shares of LivePerson Jumped Today   [Dec-14-17 12:52PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why LivePerson Shares Got Clobbered Today   [Nov-02-17 01:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivePerson Is Growing Again   [11:36AM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivePerson reports 3Q loss   [06:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ LivePerson CEO on How AI, Bots Are Changing the Workforce   [Oct-23-17 06:54PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Why Shares of LivePerson Jumped Today   [Jul-27-17 12:33PM  Motley Fool]
▶ LivePerson reports 2Q loss   [Jul-26-17 11:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why LivePerson, Inc. Stock Surged 35% in May   [Jun-19-17 08:30AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LivePerson, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 04:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Can The Uptrend Continue for LivePerson (LPSN)?   [Jun-06-17 04:34AM  Zacks]
▶ LivePerson reports 1Q loss   [May-10-17 04:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ RBS to enhance customer service with "hybrid bots"   [May-03-17 08:49AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LivePerson, Inc. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 04:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to LivePerson, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:03PM  Capital Cube]
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