Intrinsic value of Liquidity Services - LQDT

Previous Close

$5.40

  Intrinsic Value

$0.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

Previous close

$5.40

 
Intrinsic value

$0.70

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LQDT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.56
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  270
  275
  282
  289
  297
  306
  316
  327
  338
  351
  364
  379
  394
  411
  428
  446
  466
  487
  509
  532
  556
  582
  609
  638
  668
  700
  733
  769
  806
  845
  886
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  246
  251
  258
  265
  273
  281
  291
  301
  312
  324
  332
  345
  360
  375
  391
  408
  427
  446
  466
  487
  510
  534
  559
  585
  613
  643
  673
  706
  740
  776
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  98
  100
  103
  105
  108
  111
  114
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  132
  135
  138
  142
  145
  149
Total operating expenses, $m
  310
  319
  326
  334
  343
  353
  363
  375
  388
  401
  415
  425
  440
  458
  475
  494
  513
  535
  557
  580
  603
  629
  656
  684
  713
  745
  778
  811
  848
  885
  925
Operating income, $m
  -40
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -46
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -48
  -48
  -48
  -48
  -48
  -48
  -47
  -47
  -46
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -43
  -42
  -41
  -39
EBITDA, $m
  -34
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -43
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -43
  -43
  -42
  -41
  -40
  -39
  -37
  -36
  -34
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Earnings before tax, $m
  -40
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -51
  -47
  -48
  -48
  -49
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -49
  -49
  -48
  -47
  -47
  -46
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -39
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -51
  -47
  -48
  -48
  -49
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -49
  -49
  -48
  -47
  -47
  -46

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  215
  123
  126
  130
  133
  137
  142
  146
  152
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  344
  361
  379
  397
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  121
  123
  126
  130
  133
  137
  142
  146
  152
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  344
  361
  379
  397
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.231
  2.236
  2.238
  2.223
  2.233
  2.234
  2.225
  2.240
  2.224
  2.236
  2.233
  2.229
  2.226
  2.234
  2.229
  2.230
  2.230
  2.234
  2.232
  2.235
  2.233
  2.230
  2.231
  2.231
  2.234
  2.229
  2.228
  2.235
  2.233
  2.230
  2.232
Average production assets, $m
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Working capital, $m
  68
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
Total debt, $m
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  33
  38
  43
  48
  54
  60
  66
  73
  80
  87
  95
  103
  112
  121
  131
  141
  152
  163
  175
  187
Total liabilities, $m
  83
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
Total equity, $m
  133
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  216
  124
  127
  130
  133
  137
  142
  146
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
  397
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.040
  0.090
  0.140
  0.190
  0.250
  0.310
  0.370
  0.430
  0.490
  0.550
  0.610
  0.660
  0.720
  0.780
  0.830
  0.890
  0.940
  0.990
  1.040
  1.080
  1.130
  1.170
  1.210
  1.260
  1.290
  1.330
  1.370
  1.400
  1.430
  1.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -39
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -51
  -47
  -48
  -48
  -49
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -49
  -49
  -48
  -47
  -47
  -46
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Funds from operations, $m
  -49
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -44
  -45
  -45
  -46
  -46
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -46
  -46
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -43
  -42
  -41
  -40
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  -32
  -37
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -43
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -44
  -44
  -43
  -43
  -42
  -41
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -36
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
Free cash flow, $m
  -40
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -46
  -47
  -47
  -48
  -48
  -49
  -49
  -49
  -49
  -49
  -49
  -49
  -49
  -49
  -49
  -48
  -48
  -47
  -46
  -45
  -44
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  51
  52
  53
  49
  50
  51
  51
  52
  52
  53
  53
  54
  54
  54
  54
  54
  54
  54
  54
  53
  53
  52
  51
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  46
  47
  48
  50
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  53
  55
  56
  56
  58
  58
  59
  60
  61
  61
  62
  62
  63
  63
  64
  64
  64
  64
  64
  63
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -40
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  30
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -51
  -52
  -52
  -53
  -53
  -54
  -54
  -54
  -54
  -54
  -54
  -54
  -54
  -53
  -53
  -52
  -51
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  57
  -38
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -40
  -41
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -41
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -37
  -36
  -35
  -33
  -31
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  55
  -34
  -33
  -32
  -31
  -29
  -28
  -26
  -24
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -16
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  53.2
  28.2
  14.9
  7.9
  4.2
  2.2
  1.2
  0.6
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Liquidity Services, Inc. operates a network of e-commerce marketplaces that enable buyers and sellers to transact in an automated environment. The Company employs e-commerce marketplace solutions to manage, value and sell inventory and equipment for business and government clients. The Company's marketplaces provide professional buyers access to a global supply of new, surplus and scrap assets presented with digital images and other relevant product information. Additionally, the Company enables its corporate and government sellers to enhance their financial return on assets offered for sale by providing a liquid marketplace and value-added services. The Company's range of services include program management, valuation, asset management, reconciliation, Return to Vendor and Returns Management Authorization (RTV and RMA), refurbishment and recycling, fulfillment, marketing and sales, warehousing and transportation, buyer customer support, and compliance and risk mitigation.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Liquidity Services (LQDT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.4
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -16.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.5%
Return On Total Capital -26.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Return On Equity -26.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.4%
EBITDA Margin -12.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.3%
Operating Margin -14.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -14.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.5%
Net Profit Margin -14.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20%
Effective Tax Rate 2.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

LQDT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LQDT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $270 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Liquidity Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Liquidity Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LQDT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LQDT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Liquidity Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Liquidity Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LQDT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $71 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LQDT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Liquidity Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Liquidity Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LQDT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LQDT are equal to 6.3%.

Life of production assets of 10.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Liquidity Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LQDT is equal to -9.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $133 million for Liquidity Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.561 million for Liquidity Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Liquidity Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Liquidity Services Stock Plunged Today   [Dec-06-17 02:07PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Liquidity Services Sees Losses Widen   [09:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Liquidity Services reports 4Q loss   [04:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Liquidity Services Auction Watch   [Nov-28-17 01:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is It Too Late To Buy Liquidity Services Inc (LQDT)?   [Nov-10-17 07:55PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Should You Buy Liquidity Services Inc (LQDT) Now?   [Sep-22-17 05:46PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Liquidity Services reports 3Q loss   [Aug-04-17 12:59AM  Associated Press]
▶ Weaker Volumes Hurt Liquidity Services   [Aug-03-17 02:54PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 10 Tips for Sourcing Inventory in the Secondary Market   [Aug-02-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Liquidity Services Auction Watch   [Jul-19-17 04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Liquidity Services & Maynards Featured Auction   [Jun-09-17 01:23AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Liquidity Services Auction Watch   [Jun-01-17 02:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Five Graduation Gift Ideas for 2017 from Liquidation.com   [May-30-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Liquidity Services reports 2Q loss   [07:00AM  Associated Press]
▶ Liquidity Services Celebrates Earth Day 2017   [Apr-21-17 11:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Liquidity Services Auction Watch   [Mar-30-17 12:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Liquidity Services Auction Watch   [Feb-28-17 02:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Liquidity Services Expands in the U.K.   [Feb-17-17 03:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Liquidity Services reports 1Q loss   [07:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Liquidity Services, Inc. (LQDT)?   [Dec-11-16 07:17AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Liquidity Services Inc. Stock Popped Today   [Dec-02-16 05:02PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Liquidity Services Auction Watch   [Nov-29-16 09:50AM  Business Wire]
▶ Liquidity Services Auction Watch   [Nov-21-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of LQDT
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