Intrinsic value of Lattice Semiconductor - LSCC

Previous Close

$5.84

  Intrinsic Value

$3.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-45%

Previous close

$5.84

 
Intrinsic value

$3.21

 
Up/down potential

-45%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LSCC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.62
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
Revenue, $m
  421
  458
  496
  535
  577
  619
  664
  710
  758
  808
  860
  914
  970
  1,029
  1,090
  1,154
  1,220
  1,289
  1,362
  1,438
  1,517
  1,599
  1,686
  1,776
  1,871
  1,970
  2,073
  2,182
  2,296
  2,415
Variable operating expenses, $m
  204
  219
  235
  251
  268
  285
  304
  323
  342
  363
  352
  374
  397
  421
  446
  472
  500
  528
  558
  589
  621
  655
  690
  727
  766
  806
  849
  893
  940
  989
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  254
  260
  266
  272
  278
  284
  290
  296
  303
  310
  316
  323
  330
  338
  345
  353
  360
  368
  377
  385
  393
  402
  411
  420
  429
  438
  448
  458
  468
  478
Total operating expenses, $m
  458
  479
  501
  523
  546
  569
  594
  619
  645
  673
  668
  697
  727
  759
  791
  825
  860
  896
  935
  974
  1,014
  1,057
  1,101
  1,147
  1,195
  1,244
  1,297
  1,351
  1,408
  1,467
Operating income, $m
  -38
  -22
  -5
  13
  31
  50
  70
  91
  113
  136
  192
  216
  243
  270
  299
  329
  360
  393
  428
  464
  502
  543
  585
  629
  676
  725
  776
  831
  888
  948
EBITDA, $m
  29
  48
  68
  89
  111
  134
  157
  182
  208
  235
  263
  293
  323
  356
  389
  425
  462
  501
  541
  584
  629
  676
  725
  777
  832
  889
  949
  1,013
  1,079
  1,149
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  132
  139
Earnings before tax, $m
  -55
  -42
  -27
  -12
  4
  20
  38
  56
  75
  94
  147
  169
  191
  215
  240
  266
  294
  322
  353
  384
  418
  453
  490
  529
  570
  613
  658
  706
  756
  809
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  5
  10
  15
  20
  25
  40
  46
  52
  58
  65
  72
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  143
  154
  165
  178
  191
  204
  218
Net income, $m
  -55
  -42
  -27
  -12
  3
  15
  27
  41
  54
  69
  107
  123
  140
  157
  175
  194
  214
  235
  257
  281
  305
  331
  358
  386
  416
  447
  480
  515
  552
  590

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  661
  718
  778
  840
  905
  972
  1,042
  1,115
  1,190
  1,268
  1,350
  1,435
  1,523
  1,615
  1,711
  1,811
  1,915
  2,024
  2,138
  2,257
  2,381
  2,510
  2,646
  2,788
  2,937
  3,092
  3,255
  3,425
  3,604
  3,791
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  661
  718
  778
  840
  905
  972
  1,042
  1,115
  1,190
  1,268
  1,350
  1,435
  1,523
  1,615
  1,711
  1,811
  1,915
  2,024
  2,138
  2,257
  2,381
  2,510
  2,646
  2,788
  2,937
  3,092
  3,255
  3,425
  3,604
  3,791
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.637
  0.638
  0.638
  0.637
  0.638
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
Average production assets, $m
  242
  263
  285
  308
  332
  356
  382
  408
  436
  465
  494
  526
  558
  592
  627
  663
  702
  741
  783
  827
  872
  920
  969
  1,021
  1,076
  1,133
  1,192
  1,255
  1,320
  1,389
Working capital, $m
  76
  82
  89
  96
  104
  111
  119
  128
  136
  145
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  208
  220
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  303
  320
  337
  355
  373
  393
  413
  435
Total debt, $m
  339
  378
  419
  462
  506
  552
  600
  650
  702
  756
  812
  870
  931
  994
  1,060
  1,129
  1,200
  1,275
  1,353
  1,435
  1,520
  1,609
  1,702
  1,800
  1,902
  2,009
  2,120
  2,238
  2,360
  2,489
Total liabilities, $m
  454
  494
  535
  577
  622
  668
  716
  766
  818
  871
  927
  986
  1,046
  1,110
  1,176
  1,244
  1,316
  1,391
  1,469
  1,550
  1,636
  1,725
  1,818
  1,915
  2,017
  2,124
  2,236
  2,353
  2,476
  2,604
Total equity, $m
  207
  225
  244
  263
  283
  304
  326
  349
  372
  397
  423
  449
  477
  506
  536
  567
  600
  634
  669
  706
  745
  786
  828
  873
  919
  968
  1,019
  1,072
  1,128
  1,187
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  661
  719
  779
  840
  905
  972
  1,042
  1,115
  1,190
  1,268
  1,350
  1,435
  1,523
  1,616
  1,712
  1,811
  1,916
  2,025
  2,138
  2,256
  2,381
  2,511
  2,646
  2,788
  2,936
  3,092
  3,255
  3,425
  3,604
  3,791
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.640
  1.680
  1.720
  1.760
  1.790
  1.820
  1.840
  1.860
  1.880
  1.900
  1.920
  1.940
  1.950
  1.970
  1.980
  1.990
  2.000
  2.010
  2.020
  2.030
  2.040
  2.050
  2.060
  2.060
  2.070
  2.080
  2.080
  2.090
  2.090
  2.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -55
  -42
  -27
  -12
  3
  15
  27
  41
  54
  69
  107
  123
  140
  157
  175
  194
  214
  235
  257
  281
  305
  331
  358
  386
  416
  447
  480
  515
  552
  590
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  120
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  191
  201
Funds from operations, $m
  12
  28
  46
  64
  83
  98
  115
  132
  149
  168
  179
  199
  220
  243
  266
  290
  316
  343
  371
  400
  431
  464
  498
  534
  572
  611
  653
  697
  743
  792
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
Cash from operations, $m
  5
  22
  39
  57
  75
  91
  107
  123
  141
  159
  170
  190
  210
  232
  255
  279
  304
  330
  358
  387
  417
  449
  482
  518
  555
  594
  634
  677
  723
  770
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -260
Free cash flow, $m
  -47
  -34
  -21
  -7
  7
  18
  29
  41
  54
  67
  72
  87
  102
  118
  134
  151
  170
  189
  209
  230
  252
  275
  300
  325
  352
  381
  411
  442
  475
  510
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  73
  60
  46
  32
  17
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  110
  99
  87
  75
  61
  52
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  63
  65
  66
  67
  69
  70
  77
  91
  106
  121
  128
  145
  163
  181
  200
  220
  241
  264
  287
  311
  337
  364
  393
  423
  454
  487
  522
  559
  598
  639
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -73
  -60
  -46
  -32
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  18
  5
  20
  36
  49
  49
  56
  69
  82
  97
  103
  119
  135
  152
  170
  189
  209
  229
  251
  274
  298
  324
  350
  378
  408
  439
  472
  506
  542
  580
Discount rate, %
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  17
  4
  16
  27
  33
  30
  31
  34
  36
  36
  33
  33
  31
  29
  27
  24
  21
  18
  15
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  89.9
  82.8
  78.1
  75.3
  73.8
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
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Lattice Semiconductor Corporation is a United States-based company, which develops semiconductor technologies that it monetizes through products, solutions and licenses. The Company operates through two segments: the core Lattice (Core) business, which includes intellectual property (IP) and semiconductor devices, and Qterics, a discrete software-as-a-service business unit in the Lattice legal entity structure. The Company is a provider of customizable smart connectivity solutions based on its low power field programmable gate array (FPGA), video application specific standard product (ASSP), 60 gigahertz millimeter wave, and IP products to the consumer, communications, industrial, computing and automotive markets across the world. Its products include iCE40 Ultra/UltraLite, iCE40 LP/HX/LM, MachXO3, MachXO2, MachXO, HDMI Transmitters, HDMI Receivers, USB Type-C Port Controllers, Port Processors, Analog to HDMI/MHL Converters, MHL Transmitters, UltraGig 6400 and 802.11ad Chipsets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -13.2
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 111.5%
Total Debt to Equity 124.1%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Return On Total Capital -8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Return On Equity -18.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.5%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.1%
EBITDA Margin 8.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Operating Margin -6.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Net Profit Margin -12.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.8%
Effective Tax Rate -23.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

LSCC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LSCC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $385.961 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lattice Semiconductor. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Lattice Semiconductor. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LSCC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for LSCC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lattice Semiconductor, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lattice Semiconductor.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LSCC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 49.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $249 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LSCC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Lattice Semiconductor.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lattice Semiconductor. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LSCC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LSCC are equal to 57.5%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lattice Semiconductor operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LSCC is equal to 18%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $217.693 million for Lattice Semiconductor - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 126.759 million for Lattice Semiconductor is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lattice Semiconductor at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ You should be worried about tech stocks, and heres why   [Nov-11-18 01:21PM  MarketWatch]
▶ See Lattice sensAI On-Device AI Solutions at VISION 2018   [Nov-06-18 02:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Lattice Semiconductor Stock Was Slammed Friday   [Oct-26-18 02:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Lattice: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Oct-25-18 05:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chipmakers Lead S&P 500 Rally: 5 Stocks to Buy   [Sep-17-18 08:37AM  Zacks]
▶ Broadcom (AVGO) Jumps: Stock Rises 7.7%   [Sep-10-18 08:57AM  Zacks]
▶ 5 Top-Ranked Tech Stocks Trading Under $10 With Room to Run   [Aug-29-18 02:23PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Lattice Semiconductor seeks new CFO   [Aug-28-18 05:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Stocks to Watch: Lattice Semiconductor, Gartner, Heico   [06:29AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Lattice names ex-AMD exec as new CEO   [Aug-27-18 05:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Lattice Semiconductor Names New CEO   [04:52PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ AMD exec named CEO of Lattice Semi   [04:15PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Lattice: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-26-18 05:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] T. Rowe Buys Lattice Semi, Maxim Integrated   [Jul-10-18 04:10PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Lattice: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 05:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ Lattice Semiconductor CEO to retire this week   [Mar-12-18 06:39PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Lattice strikes deal with activist investor, expands board   [Mar-07-18 06:18PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Lattice reports 4Q loss   [Feb-13-18 04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Activist investor buys 6% stake in Lattice Semiconductor   [Feb-05-18 08:13PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Lattice reports 3Q loss   [Nov-07-17 04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Lattice Semiconductor Schedules Q3 2017 Conference Call   [Oct-26-17 05:30AM  Business Wire]

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