Intrinsic value of Landstar System - LSTR

Previous Close

$123.70

  Intrinsic Value

$267.42

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+116%

Previous close

$123.70

 
Intrinsic value

$267.42

 
Up/down potential

+116%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of LSTR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  35.90
  32.81
  30.03
  27.53
  25.27
  23.25
  21.42
  19.78
  18.30
  16.97
  15.77
  14.70
  13.73
  12.85
  12.07
  11.36
  10.73
  10.15
  9.64
  9.17
  8.76
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
Revenue, $m
  4,955
  6,581
  8,558
  10,913
  13,671
  16,849
  20,459
  24,505
  28,990
  33,910
  39,259
  45,029
  51,210
  57,793
  64,768
  72,127
  79,863
  87,972
  96,450
  105,299
  114,519
  124,117
  134,100
  144,478
  155,263
  166,470
  178,117
  190,223
  202,811
  215,903
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,607
  6,117
  7,953
  10,141
  12,704
  15,656
  19,009
  22,768
  26,934
  31,504
  36,469
  41,829
  47,571
  53,685
  60,165
  67,001
  74,187
  81,719
  89,595
  97,815
  106,380
  115,296
  124,569
  134,209
  144,228
  154,639
  165,458
  176,704
  188,397
  200,558
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,607
  6,117
  7,953
  10,141
  12,704
  15,656
  19,009
  22,768
  26,934
  31,504
  36,469
  41,829
  47,571
  53,685
  60,165
  67,001
  74,187
  81,719
  89,595
  97,815
  106,380
  115,296
  124,569
  134,209
  144,228
  154,639
  165,458
  176,704
  188,397
  200,558
Operating income, $m
  348
  464
  604
  772
  968
  1,194
  1,450
  1,738
  2,056
  2,406
  2,790
  3,200
  3,640
  4,107
  4,603
  5,126
  5,676
  6,252
  6,855
  7,484
  8,139
  8,821
  9,531
  10,268
  11,035
  11,831
  12,659
  13,519
  14,414
  15,345
EBITDA, $m
  404
  537
  698
  890
  1,116
  1,375
  1,669
  2,000
  2,366
  2,767
  3,203
  3,674
  4,179
  4,716
  5,285
  5,885
  6,517
  7,178
  7,870
  8,592
  9,345
  10,128
  10,942
  11,789
  12,669
  13,584
  14,534
  15,522
  16,549
  17,617
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  9
  23
  40
  60
  85
  113
  146
  184
  226
  273
  324
  379
  439
  503
  572
  644
  721
  801
  886
  974
  1,066
  1,162
  1,261
  1,365
  1,473
  1,585
  1,702
  1,823
  1,949
  2,079
Earnings before tax, $m
  339
  441
  565
  712
  883
  1,080
  1,304
  1,554
  1,831
  2,134
  2,467
  2,821
  3,200
  3,604
  4,031
  4,482
  4,955
  5,451
  5,969
  6,510
  7,073
  7,660
  8,269
  8,903
  9,562
  10,246
  10,957
  11,697
  12,465
  13,265
Tax expense, $m
  92
  119
  152
  192
  238
  292
  352
  420
  494
  576
  666
  762
  864
  973
  1,088
  1,210
  1,338
  1,472
  1,612
  1,758
  1,910
  2,068
  2,233
  2,404
  2,582
  2,766
  2,958
  3,158
  3,366
  3,582
Net income, $m
  248
  322
  412
  519
  645
  789
  952
  1,134
  1,336
  1,558
  1,801
  2,059
  2,336
  2,631
  2,943
  3,272
  3,617
  3,979
  4,358
  4,752
  5,164
  5,591
  6,037
  6,499
  6,980
  7,480
  7,999
  8,539
  9,100
  9,684

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,838
  2,441
  3,174
  4,048
  5,071
  6,250
  7,589
  9,089
  10,753
  12,578
  14,562
  16,702
  18,995
  21,437
  24,024
  26,753
  29,623
  32,630
  35,775
  39,057
  42,478
  46,038
  49,740
  53,590
  57,590
  61,747
  66,067
  70,558
  75,226
  80,083
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,838
  2,441
  3,174
  4,048
  5,071
  6,250
  7,589
  9,089
  10,753
  12,578
  14,562
  16,702
  18,995
  21,437
  24,024
  26,753
  29,623
  32,630
  35,775
  39,057
  42,478
  46,038
  49,740
  53,590
  57,590
  61,747
  66,067
  70,558
  75,226
  80,083
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
  2.696
Average production assets, $m
  396
  527
  685
  873
  1,094
  1,348
  1,637
  1,960
  2,319
  2,713
  3,141
  3,602
  4,097
  4,623
  5,181
  5,770
  6,389
  7,038
  7,716
  8,424
  9,162
  9,929
  10,728
  11,558
  12,421
  13,318
  14,249
  15,218
  16,225
  17,272
Working capital, $m
  278
  369
  479
  611
  766
  944
  1,146
  1,372
  1,623
  1,899
  2,199
  2,522
  2,868
  3,236
  3,627
  4,039
  4,472
  4,926
  5,401
  5,897
  6,413
  6,951
  7,510
  8,091
  8,695
  9,322
  9,975
  10,653
  11,357
  12,091
Total debt, $m
  420
  733
  1,113
  1,566
  2,097
  2,709
  3,404
  4,183
  5,046
  5,994
  7,023
  8,134
  9,324
  10,591
  11,934
  13,351
  14,840
  16,401
  18,033
  19,736
  21,511
  23,359
  25,281
  27,279
  29,355
  31,512
  33,754
  36,085
  38,508
  41,028
Total liabilities, $m
  954
  1,267
  1,647
  2,101
  2,632
  3,244
  3,938
  4,717
  5,581
  6,528
  7,558
  8,668
  9,858
  11,126
  12,468
  13,885
  15,374
  16,935
  18,567
  20,271
  22,046
  23,894
  25,815
  27,813
  29,889
  32,047
  34,289
  36,619
  39,043
  41,563
Total equity, $m
  884
  1,174
  1,527
  1,947
  2,439
  3,006
  3,650
  4,372
  5,172
  6,050
  7,004
  8,034
  9,137
  10,311
  11,555
  12,868
  14,249
  15,695
  17,208
  18,787
  20,432
  22,144
  23,925
  25,777
  27,701
  29,700
  31,778
  33,938
  36,184
  38,520
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,838
  2,441
  3,174
  4,048
  5,071
  6,250
  7,588
  9,089
  10,753
  12,578
  14,562
  16,702
  18,995
  21,437
  24,023
  26,753
  29,623
  32,630
  35,775
  39,058
  42,478
  46,038
  49,740
  53,590
  57,590
  61,747
  66,067
  70,557
  75,227
  80,083
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.470
  0.620
  0.730
  0.800
  0.860
  0.900
  0.930
  0.960
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  248
  322
  412
  519
  645
  789
  952
  1,134
  1,336
  1,558
  1,801
  2,059
  2,336
  2,631
  2,943
  3,272
  3,617
  3,979
  4,358
  4,752
  5,164
  5,591
  6,037
  6,499
  6,980
  7,480
  7,999
  8,539
  9,100
  9,684
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  56
  73
  94
  119
  148
  181
  219
  262
  309
  361
  413
  474
  539
  608
  682
  759
  841
  926
  1,015
  1,108
  1,205
  1,306
  1,412
  1,521
  1,634
  1,752
  1,875
  2,002
  2,135
  2,273
Funds from operations, $m
  304
  395
  506
  638
  793
  970
  1,171
  1,396
  1,645
  1,918
  2,214
  2,533
  2,875
  3,239
  3,625
  4,031
  4,458
  4,905
  5,373
  5,861
  6,369
  6,898
  7,448
  8,020
  8,614
  9,232
  9,874
  10,541
  11,235
  11,956
Change in working capital, $m
  73
  91
  111
  132
  154
  178
  202
  227
  251
  276
  300
  323
  346
  369
  391
  412
  433
  454
  475
  496
  516
  537
  559
  581
  604
  628
  652
  678
  705
  733
Cash from operations, $m
  230
  304
  396
  506
  638
  792
  969
  1,170
  1,394
  1,643
  1,914
  2,210
  2,529
  2,871
  3,234
  3,619
  4,025
  4,451
  4,898
  5,365
  5,853
  6,361
  6,889
  7,439
  8,010
  8,604
  9,222
  9,863
  10,530
  11,223
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -52
  -69
  -90
  -115
  -144
  -177
  -215
  -258
  -305
  -357
  -413
  -474
  -539
  -608
  -682
  -759
  -841
  -926
  -1,015
  -1,108
  -1,205
  -1,306
  -1,412
  -1,521
  -1,634
  -1,752
  -1,875
  -2,002
  -2,135
New CAPEX, $m
  -104
  -130
  -158
  -188
  -221
  -254
  -289
  -324
  -359
  -394
  -428
  -462
  -494
  -527
  -558
  -589
  -619
  -649
  -678
  -708
  -738
  -768
  -799
  -830
  -863
  -897
  -932
  -969
  -1,007
  -1,047
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -142
  -182
  -227
  -278
  -336
  -398
  -466
  -539
  -617
  -699
  -785
  -875
  -968
  -1,066
  -1,166
  -1,271
  -1,378
  -1,490
  -1,604
  -1,723
  -1,846
  -1,973
  -2,105
  -2,242
  -2,384
  -2,531
  -2,684
  -2,844
  -3,009
  -3,182
Free cash flow, $m
  88
  122
  168
  228
  303
  394
  503
  631
  778
  944
  1,129
  1,335
  1,561
  1,805
  2,068
  2,348
  2,646
  2,962
  3,294
  3,642
  4,007
  4,387
  4,784
  5,197
  5,627
  6,073
  6,537
  7,020
  7,520
  8,041
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  252
  313
  380
  453
  531
  612
  695
  779
  863
  947
  1,030
  1,111
  1,190
  1,267
  1,343
  1,417
  1,489
  1,561
  1,632
  1,703
  1,775
  1,848
  1,922
  1,998
  2,076
  2,157
  2,242
  2,331
  2,423
  2,520
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  252
  313
  380
  453
  531
  612
  695
  779
  863
  947
  1,030
  1,111
  1,190
  1,267
  1,343
  1,417
  1,489
  1,561
  1,632
  1,703
  1,775
  1,848
  1,922
  1,998
  2,076
  2,157
  2,242
  2,331
  2,423
  2,520
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  340
  435
  549
  681
  833
  1,006
  1,198
  1,410
  1,641
  1,891
  2,159
  2,446
  2,751
  3,072
  3,410
  3,765
  4,136
  4,523
  4,926
  5,345
  5,782
  6,235
  6,706
  7,195
  7,703
  8,231
  8,780
  9,350
  9,944
  10,561
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -233
  -290
  -353
  -420
  -492
  -567
  -644
  -722
  -800
  -878
  -954
  -1,029
  -1,103
  -1,174
  -1,244
  -1,313
  -1,380
  -1,447
  -1,513
  -1,579
  -1,645
  -1,712
  -1,781
  -1,851
  -1,924
  -2,000
  -2,078
  -2,160
  -2,246
  -2,336
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  106
  145
  196
  261
  341
  439
  554
  688
  841
  1,013
  1,205
  1,417
  1,648
  1,898
  2,166
  2,452
  2,756
  3,076
  3,413
  3,767
  4,137
  4,522
  4,925
  5,343
  5,779
  6,231
  6,702
  7,190
  7,698
  8,225
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  102
  133
  171
  215
  265
  318
  374
  430
  483
  531
  572
  605
  627
  637
  636
  623
  600
  566
  526
  479
  428
  375
  323
  272
  225
  182
  144
  111
  84
  62
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Landstar System, Inc. (Landstar) is an asset-light provider of integrated transportation management solutions. The Company offers services to its customers across multiple transportation modes, with the ability to arrange for individual shipments of freight to enterprise solutions to manage customer's transportation needs. It operates in two segments: the Transportation Logistics segment and the Insurance segment. The Transportation Logistics segment provides a range of integrated transportation management solutions. Transportation services offered by it include truckload and less-than-truckload transportation, rail intermodal, air cargo, ocean cargo, expedited ground and air delivery of time-critical freight, heavy-haul or specialized, the United States-Canada and the United States-Mexico cross-border, project cargo and customs brokerage. The insurance segment consists of Signature Insurance Company, which is an offshore insurance subsidiary, and Risk Management Claim Services, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Landstar System (LSTR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 37.8
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 9.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 31
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 360%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 30.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 17.3%
Total Debt to Equity 32.2%
Interest Coverage 56
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Total Capital 20.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Return On Equity 27.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Asset Turnover 3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
EBITDA Margin 8.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Operating Margin 7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Net Profit Margin 4.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
Payout Ratio 10.2%

LSTR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LSTR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3646.364 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Landstar System. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Landstar System. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LSTR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 35.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LSTR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Landstar System, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Landstar System.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LSTR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LSTR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Landstar System.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Landstar System. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LSTR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LSTR are equal to 8%.

Life of production assets of 7.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Landstar System operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LSTR is equal to 5.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $650.672 million for Landstar System - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.991 million for Landstar System is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Landstar System at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.2 billion.

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