Intrinsic value of LTC Properties - LTC

Previous Close

$46.25

  Intrinsic Value

$4.68

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$46.25

 
Intrinsic value

$4.68

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as LTC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LTC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.12
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  264
  277
  291
  305
  321
  337
  354
  371
  390
  409
  430
  451
  474
  498
  522
  549
  576
  605
  635
  667
  700
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
  164
  173
  181
  190
  200
  210
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
  281
  295
  310
  325
  342
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  81
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
  164
  173
  181
  190
  200
  210
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
  281
  295
  310
  325
  342
Operating income, $m
  80
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
  281
  295
  310
  325
  341
  358
EBITDA, $m
  116
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  176
  185
  194
  203
  214
  224
  236
  247
  260
  273
  286
  301
  316
  331
  348
  365
  384
  403
  423
  444
  466
  490
  514
Interest expense (income), $m
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
Earnings before tax, $m
  85
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  134
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
Tax expense, $m
  0
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  68
Net income, $m
  85
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,395
  1,454
  1,527
  1,603
  1,683
  1,767
  1,856
  1,948
  2,046
  2,148
  2,255
  2,368
  2,487
  2,611
  2,741
  2,879
  3,022
  3,174
  3,332
  3,499
  3,674
  3,857
  4,050
  4,253
  4,466
  4,689
  4,923
  5,169
  5,428
  5,699
  5,984
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,387
  1,454
  1,527
  1,603
  1,683
  1,767
  1,856
  1,948
  2,046
  2,148
  2,255
  2,368
  2,487
  2,611
  2,741
  2,879
  3,022
  3,174
  3,332
  3,499
  3,674
  3,857
  4,050
  4,253
  4,466
  4,689
  4,923
  5,169
  5,428
  5,699
  5,984
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
Average production assets, $m
  987
  1,036
  1,088
  1,143
  1,200
  1,260
  1,323
  1,389
  1,458
  1,531
  1,608
  1,688
  1,773
  1,861
  1,954
  2,052
  2,155
  2,262
  2,375
  2,494
  2,619
  2,750
  2,887
  3,032
  3,183
  3,343
  3,510
  3,685
  3,869
  4,063
  4,266
Working capital, $m
  0
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
Total debt, $m
  609
  640
  675
  711
  748
  788
  830
  874
  920
  968
  1,019
  1,072
  1,128
  1,186
  1,248
  1,313
  1,381
  1,452
  1,527
  1,605
  1,688
  1,775
  1,866
  1,961
  2,062
  2,167
  2,278
  2,394
  2,516
  2,644
  2,779
Total liabilities, $m
  655
  686
  721
  757
  794
  834
  876
  920
  966
  1,014
  1,065
  1,118
  1,174
  1,232
  1,294
  1,359
  1,427
  1,498
  1,573
  1,651
  1,734
  1,821
  1,912
  2,007
  2,108
  2,213
  2,324
  2,440
  2,562
  2,690
  2,825
Total equity, $m
  740
  768
  806
  846
  889
  933
  980
  1,029
  1,080
  1,134
  1,191
  1,250
  1,313
  1,379
  1,447
  1,520
  1,596
  1,676
  1,759
  1,847
  1,940
  2,037
  2,139
  2,246
  2,358
  2,476
  2,599
  2,729
  2,866
  3,009
  3,160
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,395
  1,454
  1,527
  1,603
  1,683
  1,767
  1,856
  1,949
  2,046
  2,148
  2,256
  2,368
  2,487
  2,611
  2,741
  2,879
  3,023
  3,174
  3,332
  3,498
  3,674
  3,858
  4,051
  4,253
  4,466
  4,689
  4,923
  5,169
  5,428
  5,699
  5,985
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.823
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  85
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  156
Funds from operations, $m
  98
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  135
  141
  148
  156
  163
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  219
  229
  241
  253
  265
  279
  292
  307
  322
  338
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  106
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  199
  209
  220
  230
  242
  254
  267
  280
  294
  308
  324
  340
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
New CAPEX, $m
  -124
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -140
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -237
  -249
  -263
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -334
  -351
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  37
  31
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  79
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  114
  31
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  80
  29
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -81
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  2
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  2
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

LTC Properties Inc. is a healthcare real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company invests in senior housing and healthcare properties through sale-leaseback transactions, mortgage financing and structured finance solutions, including mezzanine lending. It invests in various properties, including Skilled nursing facilities (SNF), Assisted living facilities (ALF), Independent living facilities (ILF), Memory care facilities (MC) and Range of care facilities (ROC). SNF provides restorative, rehabilitative and nursing care. Many skilled nursing facilities provide ancillary services that include occupational, speech, physical, respiratory and IV therapies, as well as sub-acute care services, which are paid either by the patient, the patient's family, private health insurance, or through the federal Medicare or state Medicaid programs. ALF serves people requiring assistance with activities of daily living, but do not require the constant supervision skilled nursing facilities provide.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  LTC Properties (LTC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.3
Price to Sales 11.2
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -100.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -48.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 82.3%
Total Debt to Equity 82.3%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Total Capital 6.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Equity 12.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 89.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 90.4%
Operating Margin 50%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 52.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.8%
Net Profit Margin 52.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 100%

LTC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LTC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $162 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by LTC Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of LTC Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LTC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for LTC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of LTC Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of LTC Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LTC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 48.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LTC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for LTC Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for LTC Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LTC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LTC are equal to 609.3%.

Life of production assets of 27.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in LTC Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LTC is equal to -4.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $740 million for LTC Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.501 million for LTC Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of LTC Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ LTC reports 2Q results   [Aug-09-17 10:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ LTC Reports 2017 Second Quarter Results   [04:15PM  Business Wire]
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Financial statements of LTC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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