Intrinsic value of Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings Series A - LTRPA

Previous Close

$15.25

  Intrinsic Value

$17.77

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+17%

Previous close

$15.25

 
Intrinsic value

$17.77

 
Up/down potential

+17%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of LTRPA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.40
  2.66
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
Revenue, $m
  1,607
  1,649
  1,697
  1,750
  1,807
  1,870
  1,938
  2,011
  2,089
  2,172
  2,261
  2,355
  2,456
  2,562
  2,675
  2,795
  2,921
  3,054
  3,195
  3,344
  3,500
  3,666
  3,839
  4,023
  4,215
  4,418
  4,632
  4,856
  5,092
  5,341
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,573
  1,604
  1,638
  1,676
  1,718
  1,763
  1,812
  1,865
  1,921
  1,982
  1,636
  1,705
  1,777
  1,855
  1,936
  2,023
  2,114
  2,211
  2,313
  2,420
  2,533
  2,653
  2,779
  2,911
  3,051
  3,198
  3,352
  3,515
  3,686
  3,865
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,573
  1,604
  1,638
  1,676
  1,718
  1,763
  1,812
  1,865
  1,921
  1,982
  1,636
  1,705
  1,777
  1,855
  1,936
  2,023
  2,114
  2,211
  2,313
  2,420
  2,533
  2,653
  2,779
  2,911
  3,051
  3,198
  3,352
  3,515
  3,686
  3,865
Operating income, $m
  34
  46
  59
  73
  89
  107
  125
  146
  167
  190
  625
  651
  678
  708
  739
  772
  807
  844
  883
  924
  967
  1,013
  1,061
  1,111
  1,164
  1,221
  1,280
  1,342
  1,407
  1,475
EBITDA, $m
  976
  1,002
  1,031
  1,063
  1,098
  1,137
  1,178
  1,222
  1,269
  1,320
  1,374
  1,432
  1,493
  1,557
  1,626
  1,699
  1,775
  1,856
  1,942
  2,032
  2,127
  2,228
  2,333
  2,445
  2,562
  2,685
  2,815
  2,951
  3,095
  3,246
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  38
  20
  27
  35
  43
  52
  62
  73
  84
  97
  110
  124
  139
  155
  172
  190
  209
  229
  250
  273
  296
  321
  347
  375
  404
  435
  467
  501
  536
  574
Earnings before tax, $m
  -4
  25
  32
  39
  46
  54
  63
  73
  83
  93
  514
  526
  539
  553
  567
  582
  598
  615
  632
  651
  671
  691
  713
  736
  760
  786
  813
  841
  870
  901
Tax expense, $m
  0
  7
  9
  10
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  139
  142
  146
  149
  153
  157
  161
  166
  171
  176
  181
  187
  193
  199
  205
  212
  219
  227
  235
  243
Net income, $m
  -4
  19
  23
  28
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  68
  376
  384
  394
  403
  414
  425
  436
  449
  462
  475
  490
  505
  521
  537
  555
  574
  593
  614
  635
  658

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,251
  5,390
  5,546
  5,718
  5,907
  6,111
  6,332
  6,570
  6,825
  7,098
  7,388
  7,698
  8,026
  8,374
  8,743
  9,133
  9,546
  9,982
  10,442
  10,928
  11,439
  11,979
  12,547
  13,146
  13,776
  14,439
  15,136
  15,870
  16,642
  17,454
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,251
  5,390
  5,546
  5,718
  5,907
  6,111
  6,332
  6,570
  6,825
  7,098
  7,388
  7,698
  8,026
  8,374
  8,743
  9,133
  9,546
  9,982
  10,442
  10,928
  11,439
  11,979
  12,547
  13,146
  13,776
  14,439
  15,136
  15,870
  16,642
  17,454
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
Average production assets, $m
  5,326
  5,468
  5,626
  5,801
  5,992
  6,199
  6,424
  6,665
  6,924
  7,200
  7,495
  7,808
  8,141
  8,495
  8,869
  9,265
  9,683
  10,126
  10,592
  11,085
  11,604
  12,151
  12,728
  13,335
  13,974
  14,646
  15,354
  16,099
  16,882
  17,705
Working capital, $m
  -169
  -173
  -178
  -184
  -190
  -196
  -203
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -281
  -293
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -351
  -368
  -385
  -403
  -422
  -443
  -464
  -486
  -510
  -535
  -561
Total debt, $m
  376
  502
  643
  798
  967
  1,151
  1,350
  1,564
  1,794
  2,039
  2,301
  2,579
  2,874
  3,188
  3,520
  3,871
  4,242
  4,635
  5,049
  5,486
  5,946
  6,432
  6,943
  7,482
  8,049
  8,646
  9,274
  9,934
  10,629
  11,359
Total liabilities, $m
  4,725
  4,851
  4,992
  5,147
  5,316
  5,500
  5,699
  5,913
  6,143
  6,388
  6,650
  6,928
  7,223
  7,537
  7,869
  8,220
  8,591
  8,984
  9,398
  9,835
  10,295
  10,781
  11,292
  11,831
  12,398
  12,995
  13,623
  14,283
  14,978
  15,708
Total equity, $m
  525
  539
  555
  572
  591
  611
  633
  657
  683
  710
  739
  770
  803
  837
  874
  913
  955
  998
  1,044
  1,093
  1,144
  1,198
  1,255
  1,315
  1,378
  1,444
  1,514
  1,587
  1,664
  1,745
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,250
  5,390
  5,547
  5,719
  5,907
  6,111
  6,332
  6,570
  6,826
  7,098
  7,389
  7,698
  8,026
  8,374
  8,743
  9,133
  9,546
  9,982
  10,442
  10,928
  11,439
  11,979
  12,547
  13,146
  13,776
  14,439
  15,137
  15,870
  16,642
  17,453
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.720
  0.930
  1.160
  1.390
  1.640
  1.880
  2.130
  2.380
  2.630
  2.870
  3.110
  3.350
  3.580
  3.810
  4.030
  4.240
  4.440
  4.640
  4.840
  5.020
  5.200
  5.370
  5.530
  5.690
  5.840
  5.990
  6.130
  6.260
  6.390
  6.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -4
  19
  23
  28
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  68
  376
  384
  394
  403
  414
  425
  436
  449
  462
  475
  490
  505
  521
  537
  555
  574
  593
  614
  635
  658
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  943
  957
  972
  990
  1,009
  1,030
  1,052
  1,076
  1,102
  1,130
  749
  781
  814
  849
  887
  926
  968
  1,013
  1,059
  1,108
  1,160
  1,215
  1,273
  1,333
  1,397
  1,465
  1,535
  1,610
  1,688
  1,771
Funds from operations, $m
  938
  975
  996
  1,018
  1,043
  1,070
  1,098
  1,129
  1,163
  1,198
  1,125
  1,165
  1,208
  1,253
  1,301
  1,351
  1,405
  1,461
  1,521
  1,584
  1,650
  1,720
  1,793
  1,871
  1,953
  2,038
  2,129
  2,224
  2,324
  2,429
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from operations, $m
  942
  980
  1,001
  1,024
  1,049
  1,076
  1,106
  1,137
  1,171
  1,207
  1,134
  1,175
  1,218
  1,264
  1,313
  1,364
  1,418
  1,475
  1,536
  1,599
  1,667
  1,737
  1,812
  1,890
  1,973
  2,060
  2,151
  2,247
  2,348
  2,455
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -520
  -533
  -547
  -563
  -580
  -599
  -620
  -642
  -666
  -692
  -720
  -749
  -781
  -814
  -849
  -887
  -926
  -968
  -1,013
  -1,059
  -1,108
  -1,160
  -1,215
  -1,273
  -1,333
  -1,397
  -1,465
  -1,535
  -1,610
  -1,688
New CAPEX, $m
  -125
  -142
  -158
  -175
  -191
  -208
  -224
  -241
  -259
  -276
  -295
  -314
  -333
  -353
  -374
  -396
  -419
  -442
  -467
  -492
  -519
  -547
  -576
  -607
  -639
  -673
  -708
  -744
  -783
  -823
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -645
  -675
  -705
  -738
  -771
  -807
  -844
  -883
  -925
  -968
  -1,015
  -1,063
  -1,114
  -1,167
  -1,223
  -1,283
  -1,345
  -1,410
  -1,480
  -1,551
  -1,627
  -1,707
  -1,791
  -1,880
  -1,972
  -2,070
  -2,173
  -2,279
  -2,393
  -2,511
Free cash flow, $m
  298
  305
  296
  287
  278
  269
  261
  253
  246
  238
  120
  112
  104
  97
  89
  81
  73
  65
  56
  48
  39
  30
  20
  10
  0
  -10
  -21
  -33
  -45
  -57
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -328
  126
  140
  155
  170
  184
  199
  214
  229
  245
  261
  278
  296
  313
  332
  351
  371
  392
  414
  437
  461
  485
  511
  539
  567
  597
  628
  661
  695
  731
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  456
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  128
  126
  140
  155
  170
  184
  199
  214
  229
  245
  261
  278
  296
  313
  332
  351
  371
  392
  414
  437
  461
  485
  511
  539
  567
  597
  628
  661
  695
  731
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  426
  431
  436
  442
  447
  454
  460
  467
  475
  483
  381
  390
  400
  410
  421
  432
  444
  457
  470
  485
  499
  515
  532
  549
  567
  586
  607
  628
  650
  674
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -456
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  351
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  104
  106
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  184
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  292
  306
  321
  336
Cash available for distribution, $m
  321
  417
  421
  424
  429
  433
  438
  444
  450
  456
  352
  359
  367
  375
  384
  393
  403
  414
  424
  436
  448
  461
  475
  489
  504
  520
  537
  554
  573
  592
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  308
  382
  366
  349
  332
  314
  296
  277
  258
  239
  167
  153
  140
  126
  113
  100
  88
  76
  65
  55
  46
  38
  31
  25
  20
  15
  12
  9
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2
  30.2

Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings, Inc. is a holding company. Through its interests in subsidiaries and other companies, the Company is primarily engaged in the online travel research and online commerce industries. The Company's subsidiaries include TripAdvisor, Inc. (TripAdvisor), which owns and operates a portfolio of online travel brands, and BuySeasons, Inc., which owns and operates BuyCostumes.com and the Celebrate Express (BuySeasons) family of Websites. TripAdvisor is a travel site focusing on helping people around the world to plan and book a trip. TripAdvisor manages its business in two segments: Hotel, including click-based advertising, display-based advertising and subscription-based advertising, and Non-Hotel, including its attractions, restaurants and vacation rental businesses. BuySeasons is an online retailer and supplier of costumes, accessories, seasonal decor and party supplies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings Series A (LTRPA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 54.4
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -34.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 69.1%
Total Debt to Equity 79.1%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Return On Total Capital 1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Return On Equity 2.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
EBITDA Margin 18.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Operating Margin 1.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Effective Tax Rate -2.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -57.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

LTRPA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LTRPA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1569 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings Series A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings Series A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LTRPA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LTRPA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings Series A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings Series A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LTRPA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LTRPA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings Series A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings Series A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LTRPA stock is equal to 6.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LTRPA are equal to 331.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings Series A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LTRPA is equal to -10.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $424 million for Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings Series A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 75 million for Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings Series A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings Series A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Liberty TripAdvisor: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-10-18 05:13AM  Associated Press]
▶ Colorado: The state that gives out the most negative hotel reviews   [Jan-19-18 10:16AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Liberty TripAdvisor reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 03:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ TripAdvisor CEO: Trump immigration ban 'heartless and discriminatory'   [02:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Liberty Media: Better Than Berkshire   [Oct-01-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
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