Intrinsic value of lululemon athletica - LULU

Previous Close

$140.13

  Intrinsic Value

$99.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-29%

Previous close

$140.13

 
Intrinsic value

$99.38

 
Up/down potential

-29%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LULU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 17.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  24.90
  22.91
  21.12
  19.51
  18.06
  16.75
  15.58
  14.52
  13.57
  12.71
  11.94
  11.24
  10.62
  10.06
  9.55
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  3,309
  4,067
  4,926
  5,887
  6,950
  8,114
  9,377
  10,739
  12,196
  13,746
  15,387
  17,117
  18,935
  20,839
  22,830
  24,907
  27,071
  29,323
  31,665
  34,099
  36,629
  39,258
  41,990
  44,831
  47,784
  50,856
  54,052
  57,380
  60,847
  64,460
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,713
  3,334
  4,037
  4,824
  5,695
  6,648
  7,683
  8,798
  9,992
  11,261
  12,603
  14,020
  15,509
  17,069
  18,699
  20,401
  22,173
  24,017
  25,936
  27,930
  30,002
  32,155
  34,393
  36,719
  39,138
  41,654
  44,272
  46,998
  49,838
  52,797
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,713
  3,334
  4,037
  4,824
  5,695
  6,648
  7,683
  8,798
  9,992
  11,261
  12,603
  14,020
  15,509
  17,069
  18,699
  20,401
  22,173
  24,017
  25,936
  27,930
  30,002
  32,155
  34,393
  36,719
  39,138
  41,654
  44,272
  46,998
  49,838
  52,797
Operating income, $m
  596
  733
  889
  1,063
  1,255
  1,466
  1,694
  1,941
  2,204
  2,485
  2,784
  3,097
  3,426
  3,771
  4,131
  4,506
  4,898
  5,305
  5,729
  6,170
  6,627
  7,103
  7,597
  8,111
  8,646
  9,201
  9,780
  10,382
  11,009
  11,663
EBITDA, $m
  714
  877
  1,063
  1,270
  1,499
  1,750
  2,023
  2,317
  2,631
  2,965
  3,319
  3,693
  4,085
  4,496
  4,925
  5,373
  5,840
  6,326
  6,831
  7,356
  7,902
  8,469
  9,059
  9,671
  10,308
  10,971
  11,661
  12,379
  13,127
  13,906
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  0
  5
  12
  19
  27
  35
  45
  55
  66
  78
  91
  104
  119
  133
  149
  165
  182
  200
  219
  238
  258
  278
  300
  322
  346
  370
  395
  421
  448
  477
Earnings before tax, $m
  596
  728
  877
  1,044
  1,228
  1,430
  1,649
  1,885
  2,138
  2,406
  2,693
  2,993
  3,307
  3,637
  3,982
  4,341
  4,716
  5,105
  5,511
  5,932
  6,370
  6,825
  7,297
  7,789
  8,300
  8,832
  9,385
  9,961
  10,561
  11,186
Tax expense, $m
  161
  197
  237
  282
  332
  386
  445
  509
  577
  650
  727
  808
  893
  982
  1,075
  1,172
  1,273
  1,378
  1,488
  1,602
  1,720
  1,843
  1,970
  2,103
  2,241
  2,385
  2,534
  2,689
  2,851
  3,020
Net income, $m
  435
  531
  640
  762
  897
  1,044
  1,204
  1,376
  1,561
  1,757
  1,966
  2,185
  2,414
  2,655
  2,907
  3,169
  3,442
  3,727
  4,023
  4,330
  4,650
  4,982
  5,327
  5,686
  6,059
  6,447
  6,851
  7,271
  7,709
  8,166

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,624
  1,997
  2,418
  2,890
  3,412
  3,983
  4,604
  5,272
  5,987
  6,748
  7,554
  8,403
  9,295
  10,230
  11,208
  12,227
  13,290
  14,395
  15,545
  16,740
  17,982
  19,273
  20,614
  22,008
  23,458
  24,966
  26,535
  28,169
  29,871
  31,644
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,624
  1,997
  2,418
  2,890
  3,412
  3,983
  4,604
  5,272
  5,987
  6,748
  7,554
  8,403
  9,295
  10,230
  11,208
  12,227
  13,290
  14,395
  15,545
  16,740
  17,982
  19,273
  20,614
  22,008
  23,458
  24,966
  26,535
  28,169
  29,871
  31,644
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.038
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
  2.037
Average production assets, $m
  576
  708
  857
  1,024
  1,209
  1,412
  1,632
  1,869
  2,122
  2,392
  2,677
  2,978
  3,295
  3,626
  3,972
  4,334
  4,710
  5,102
  5,510
  5,933
  6,373
  6,831
  7,306
  7,801
  8,314
  8,849
  9,405
  9,984
  10,587
  11,216
Working capital, $m
  192
  236
  286
  341
  403
  471
  544
  623
  707
  797
  892
  993
  1,098
  1,209
  1,324
  1,445
  1,570
  1,701
  1,837
  1,978
  2,124
  2,277
  2,435
  2,600
  2,771
  2,950
  3,135
  3,328
  3,529
  3,739
Total debt, $m
  100
  215
  346
  491
  653
  829
  1,021
  1,227
  1,448
  1,684
  1,933
  2,195
  2,471
  2,760
  3,062
  3,377
  3,705
  4,047
  4,402
  4,771
  5,155
  5,554
  5,968
  6,399
  6,847
  7,313
  7,798
  8,303
  8,829
  9,377
Total liabilities, $m
  502
  617
  747
  893
  1,054
  1,231
  1,422
  1,629
  1,850
  2,085
  2,334
  2,597
  2,872
  3,161
  3,463
  3,778
  4,106
  4,448
  4,803
  5,173
  5,556
  5,955
  6,370
  6,801
  7,248
  7,714
  8,199
  8,704
  9,230
  9,778
Total equity, $m
  1,122
  1,380
  1,671
  1,997
  2,357
  2,752
  3,181
  3,643
  4,137
  4,663
  5,220
  5,807
  6,423
  7,069
  7,745
  8,449
  9,183
  9,947
  10,741
  11,567
  12,425
  13,317
  14,244
  15,208
  16,209
  17,251
  18,336
  19,465
  20,641
  21,866
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,624
  1,997
  2,418
  2,890
  3,411
  3,983
  4,603
  5,272
  5,987
  6,748
  7,554
  8,404
  9,295
  10,230
  11,208
  12,227
  13,289
  14,395
  15,544
  16,740
  17,981
  19,272
  20,614
  22,009
  23,457
  24,965
  26,535
  28,169
  29,871
  31,644
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.090
  0.160
  0.210
  0.250
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  435
  531
  640
  762
  897
  1,044
  1,204
  1,376
  1,561
  1,757
  1,966
  2,185
  2,414
  2,655
  2,907
  3,169
  3,442
  3,727
  4,023
  4,330
  4,650
  4,982
  5,327
  5,686
  6,059
  6,447
  6,851
  7,271
  7,709
  8,166
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  118
  144
  174
  207
  244
  285
  329
  376
  427
  481
  535
  596
  659
  725
  794
  867
  942
  1,020
  1,102
  1,187
  1,275
  1,366
  1,461
  1,560
  1,663
  1,770
  1,881
  1,997
  2,117
  2,243
Funds from operations, $m
  553
  675
  814
  969
  1,141
  1,329
  1,533
  1,753
  1,987
  2,237
  2,501
  2,780
  3,073
  3,380
  3,701
  4,036
  4,384
  4,747
  5,125
  5,517
  5,925
  6,348
  6,788
  7,246
  7,722
  8,217
  8,732
  9,268
  9,827
  10,409
Change in working capital, $m
  38
  44
  50
  56
  62
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  152
  158
  165
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
Cash from operations, $m
  515
  631
  764
  914
  1,079
  1,261
  1,460
  1,674
  1,903
  2,148
  2,406
  2,680
  2,968
  3,270
  3,586
  3,915
  4,259
  4,617
  4,989
  5,376
  5,778
  6,196
  6,630
  7,081
  7,551
  8,039
  8,547
  9,075
  9,626
  10,199
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -92
  -115
  -142
  -171
  -205
  -242
  -282
  -326
  -374
  -424
  -478
  -535
  -596
  -659
  -725
  -794
  -867
  -942
  -1,020
  -1,102
  -1,187
  -1,275
  -1,366
  -1,461
  -1,560
  -1,663
  -1,770
  -1,881
  -1,997
  -2,117
New CAPEX, $m
  -115
  -132
  -149
  -167
  -185
  -203
  -220
  -237
  -253
  -270
  -286
  -301
  -316
  -331
  -346
  -361
  -377
  -392
  -408
  -424
  -440
  -457
  -475
  -494
  -514
  -534
  -556
  -579
  -603
  -629
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -207
  -247
  -291
  -338
  -390
  -445
  -502
  -563
  -627
  -694
  -764
  -836
  -912
  -990
  -1,071
  -1,155
  -1,244
  -1,334
  -1,428
  -1,526
  -1,627
  -1,732
  -1,841
  -1,955
  -2,074
  -2,197
  -2,326
  -2,460
  -2,600
  -2,746
Free cash flow, $m
  308
  384
  473
  575
  690
  817
  957
  1,110
  1,276
  1,453
  1,642
  1,843
  2,056
  2,280
  2,514
  2,759
  3,016
  3,283
  3,561
  3,850
  4,151
  4,464
  4,788
  5,126
  5,477
  5,841
  6,221
  6,615
  7,026
  7,453
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  100
  115
  130
  146
  161
  177
  192
  207
  221
  235
  249
  262
  276
  289
  302
  315
  328
  342
  355
  369
  384
  399
  414
  431
  448
  466
  485
  505
  526
  548
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  100
  115
  130
  146
  161
  177
  192
  207
  221
  235
  249
  262
  276
  289
  302
  315
  328
  342
  355
  369
  384
  399
  414
  431
  448
  466
  485
  505
  526
  548
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  408
  499
  604
  721
  851
  994
  1,149
  1,317
  1,497
  1,689
  1,891
  2,106
  2,332
  2,568
  2,816
  3,075
  3,344
  3,624
  3,916
  4,220
  4,535
  4,862
  5,203
  5,557
  5,925
  6,307
  6,705
  7,120
  7,552
  8,001
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -223
  -257
  -291
  -326
  -361
  -395
  -429
  -462
  -494
  -526
  -557
  -587
  -617
  -646
  -675
  -705
  -734
  -764
  -794
  -826
  -858
  -892
  -927
  -963
  -1,002
  -1,042
  -1,084
  -1,129
  -1,176
  -1,226
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  698
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  882
  242
  312
  395
  490
  599
  720
  855
  1,003
  1,163
  1,335
  1,519
  1,715
  1,922
  2,141
  2,370
  2,610
  2,861
  3,122
  3,394
  3,677
  3,971
  4,276
  4,593
  4,923
  5,265
  5,621
  5,991
  6,376
  6,776
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  846
  222
  272
  325
  380
  435
  487
  534
  576
  610
  634
  648
  652
  645
  628
  602
  568
  527
  481
  431
  380
  329
  280
  234
  192
  154
  121
  93
  70
  51
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

lululemon athletica inc. is a designer, distributor and retailer of athletic apparel. The Company operates through two segments: Company-operated stores and Direct to consumer. It is also engaged in the sale from outlets, showrooms, sales from temporary locations, sales to wholesale accounts, warehouse sales, and license and supply arrangements. Its direct to consumer segment generates revenue from its lululemon and ivivva e-commerce Websites, www.lululemon.com and www.ivivva.com, and other country and region specific Websites. It offers a range of apparel and accessories for women, men and female youth. The Company's apparel assortment includes items, such as pants, shorts, tops, and jackets designed for healthy lifestyle and athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, most other sweaty pursuits, and athletic wear for female youth. The Company also offers fitness-related accessories, including an array of items, such as bags, socks, underwear, yoga mats and water bottles.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  lululemon athletica (LULU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 67.9
Price to Sales 8.8
Price to Book 15.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 53.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 87.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 86
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 20.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Return On Total Capital 25.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Return On Equity 25.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.1%
EBITDA Margin 22%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Operating Margin 18%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 18%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Net Profit Margin 12.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Effective Tax Rate 28.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

LULU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LULU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2649.181 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by lululemon athletica. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of lululemon athletica. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LULU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 24.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LULU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of lululemon athletica, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of lululemon athletica.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LULU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LULU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for lululemon athletica.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for lululemon athletica. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LULU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LULU are equal to 17.4%.

Life of production assets of 4.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in lululemon athletica operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LULU is equal to 5.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1596.96 million for lululemon athletica - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 125.914 million for lululemon athletica is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of lululemon athletica at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $17.6 billion.

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