Intrinsic value of Lexington Realty Trust - LXP

Previous Close

$9.05

  Intrinsic Value

$10.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+17%

Previous close

$9.05

 
Intrinsic value

$10.55

 
Up/down potential

+17%

 
Rating

hold

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as LXP.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LXP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  400
  409
  420
  431
  444
  459
  474
  491
  510
  529
  550
  572
  596
  621
  648
  677
  707
  738
  772
  807
  845
  884
  926
  970
  1,016
  1,065
  1,116
  1,170
  1,226
  1,286
Variable operating expenses, $m
  227
  233
  238
  245
  252
  260
  269
  279
  289
  300
  307
  320
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  413
  432
  451
  472
  494
  518
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  686
  719
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  227
  233
  238
  245
  252
  260
  269
  279
  289
  300
  307
  320
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  413
  432
  451
  472
  494
  518
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  686
  719
Operating income, $m
  172
  176
  181
  186
  192
  198
  205
  213
  221
  229
  243
  252
  263
  274
  286
  298
  312
  326
  340
  356
  373
  390
  408
  428
  448
  469
  492
  516
  541
  567
EBITDA, $m
  538
  551
  565
  581
  598
  618
  639
  662
  686
  712
  741
  771
  803
  837
  873
  911
  951
  994
  1,039
  1,087
  1,138
  1,191
  1,247
  1,306
  1,368
  1,433
  1,502
  1,575
  1,651
  1,731
Interest expense (income), $m
  88
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  11
  11
  11
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  158
  163
  167
  173
  178
  185
  192
  199
  207
  216
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  285
  299
  313
  328
  344
  360
  378
  396
  416
  436
  458
  481
  504
  530
  556
Tax expense, $m
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  62
  65
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  84
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
Net income, $m
  115
  119
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  158
  167
  175
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
  334
  351
  368
  387
  406

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  -1,625
  -1,663
  -1,705
  -1,753
  -1,807
  -1,865
  -1,928
  -1,997
  -2,071
  -2,151
  -2,236
  -2,327
  -2,423
  -2,526
  -2,635
  -2,750
  -2,872
  -3,002
  -3,138
  -3,283
  -3,435
  -3,595
  -3,764
  -3,942
  -4,130
  -4,328
  -4,536
  -4,755
  -4,985
  -5,227
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  -1,625
  -1,663
  -1,705
  -1,753
  -1,807
  -1,865
  -1,928
  -1,997
  -2,071
  -2,151
  -2,236
  -2,327
  -2,423
  -2,526
  -2,635
  -2,750
  -2,872
  -3,002
  -3,138
  -3,283
  -3,435
  -3,595
  -3,764
  -3,942
  -4,130
  -4,328
  -4,536
  -4,755
  -4,985
  -5,227
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
  -0.246
Average production assets, $m
  3,621
  3,704
  3,799
  3,906
  4,024
  4,154
  4,296
  4,449
  4,614
  4,791
  4,980
  5,182
  5,398
  5,626
  5,869
  6,126
  6,399
  6,686
  6,991
  7,312
  7,651
  8,008
  8,385
  8,782
  9,200
  9,640
  10,104
  10,591
  11,104
  11,644
Working capital, $m
  -2,259
  -2,311
  -2,370
  -2,437
  -2,511
  -2,592
  -2,680
  -2,775
  -2,878
  -2,989
  -3,107
  -3,233
  -3,367
  -3,510
  -3,661
  -3,822
  -3,992
  -4,171
  -4,361
  -4,562
  -4,773
  -4,996
  -5,231
  -5,479
  -5,739
  -6,014
  -6,303
  -6,607
  -6,927
  -7,264
Total debt, $m
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  13
  13
  13
  13
  12
  12
Total liabilities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Total equity, $m
  -1,624
  -1,661
  -1,704
  -1,752
  -1,805
  -1,863
  -1,927
  -1,995
  -2,069
  -2,149
  -2,234
  -2,324
  -2,421
  -2,523
  -2,632
  -2,748
  -2,870
  -2,999
  -3,135
  -3,279
  -3,431
  -3,592
  -3,760
  -3,939
  -4,126
  -4,323
  -4,531
  -4,750
  -4,980
  -5,222
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  -1,626
  -1,663
  -1,706
  -1,754
  -1,807
  -1,865
  -1,929
  -1,997
  -2,071
  -2,151
  -2,236
  -2,326
  -2,423
  -2,526
  -2,635
  -2,751
  -2,873
  -3,002
  -3,138
  -3,282
  -3,434
  -3,596
  -3,764
  -3,943
  -4,130
  -4,327
  -4,536
  -4,755
  -4,985
  -5,227
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  115
  119
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  158
  167
  175
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
  334
  351
  368
  387
  406
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  366
  374
  384
  394
  406
  419
  433
  449
  465
  483
  498
  518
  540
  563
  587
  613
  640
  669
  699
  731
  765
  801
  839
  878
  920
  964
  1,010
  1,059
  1,110
  1,164
Funds from operations, $m
  481
  493
  506
  520
  537
  554
  573
  594
  617
  641
  665
  693
  722
  753
  786
  821
  858
  897
  938
  982
  1,028
  1,077
  1,128
  1,182
  1,238
  1,298
  1,361
  1,427
  1,497
  1,570
Change in working capital, $m
  -44
  -52
  -59
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -223
  -235
  -248
  -261
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -337
Cash from operations, $m
  526
  545
  565
  587
  610
  635
  662
  690
  720
  751
  784
  819
  856
  896
  937
  981
  1,028
  1,077
  1,128
  1,182
  1,239
  1,300
  1,363
  1,429
  1,499
  1,573
  1,650
  1,732
  1,817
  1,907
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -355
  -362
  -370
  -380
  -391
  -402
  -415
  -430
  -445
  -461
  -479
  -498
  -518
  -540
  -563
  -587
  -613
  -640
  -669
  -699
  -731
  -765
  -801
  -839
  -878
  -920
  -964
  -1,010
  -1,059
  -1,110
New CAPEX, $m
  -74
  -83
  -95
  -107
  -118
  -130
  -141
  -153
  -165
  -177
  -189
  -202
  -215
  -229
  -243
  -257
  -272
  -288
  -304
  -321
  -339
  -357
  -377
  -397
  -418
  -440
  -463
  -488
  -513
  -540
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -429
  -445
  -465
  -487
  -509
  -532
  -556
  -583
  -610
  -638
  -668
  -700
  -733
  -769
  -806
  -844
  -885
  -928
  -973
  -1,020
  -1,070
  -1,122
  -1,178
  -1,236
  -1,296
  -1,360
  -1,427
  -1,498
  -1,572
  -1,650
Free cash flow, $m
  97
  100
  100
  100
  101
  103
  105
  107
  110
  113
  115
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -35
  -37
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -242
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -36
  -37
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -242
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  61
  62
  57
  52
  48
  45
  41
  38
  36
  33
  30
  28
  26
  25
  23
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
  17
  17
  16
  16
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  35
  37
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  197
  208
  219
  230
  242
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,589
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,685
  100
  100
  100
  101
  103
  105
  107
  110
  113
  115
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  223
  233
  245
  257
Discount rate, %
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,596
  89
  83
  78
  73
  68
  63
  58
  54
  49
  44
  40
  35
  31
  27
  24
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Lexington Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company owns a portfolio of equity and debt investments in single-tenant commercial properties. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had equity ownership interests in approximately 195 consolidated real estate properties, located in 40 states and containing an aggregate of approximately 43.3 million square feet of space, approximately 96.0% of which was leased. The Company conducts its operations either directly or indirectly through property owner subsidiaries and lender subsidiaries, which are single purpose entities; an operating partnership, Lepercq Corporate Income Fund L.P. (LCIF), in which the Company is the sole unit holder of the general partner and the sole unit holder of the limited partner that holds a majority of the limited partner interests; Lexington Realty Advisors, Inc. (LRA), a subsidiary of the Company, and investments in joint ventures.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lexington Realty Trust (LXP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.4
Price to Sales 5
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -31.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -41.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 133.6%
Total Debt to Equity 133.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Equity 6.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 88.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.6%
EBITDA Margin 80.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.2%
Operating Margin 19.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Net Profit Margin 22.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.4%
Effective Tax Rate 1.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Payout Ratio 172.9%

LXP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LXP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $392 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lexington Realty Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Lexington Realty Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LXP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for LXP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lexington Realty Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lexington Realty Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LXP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 56.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LXP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 87.1% for Lexington Realty Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lexington Realty Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LXP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LXP are equal to 905.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lexington Realty Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LXP is equal to -564.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Lexington Realty Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 238 million for Lexington Realty Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lexington Realty Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Lexington Realty: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:21AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lexington Realty: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-08-18 07:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ 12 Stocks That Look Ready to Change Direction   [May-07-18 02:30PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for April 24th   [Apr-24-18 09:52AM  Zacks]
▶ Lexington Realty reports 4Q results   [Feb-27-18 07:13AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lexington Realty Trust Final Dividend Allocation for 2017   [Jan-22-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lexington Realty reports 3Q results   [Nov-07-17 06:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It Time To Buy Lexington Realty Trust (LXP)?   [Sep-11-17 12:21PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 9 Stocks Due For Dividend Increases This Fall   [Aug-28-17 09:22AM  Forbes]
▶ Lexington Realty reports 2Q results   [Aug-08-17 09:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Lexington Realty reports 1Q results   [May-09-17 06:30AM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Top Dividend Stocks in Diversified REITs   [01:23PM  at Motley Fool]
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