Intrinsic value of Lexington Realty Trust - LXP

Previous Close

$10.46

  Intrinsic Value

$1.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

  Value-price divergence*

+5%

Previous close

$10.46

 
Intrinsic value

$1.44

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+5%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as LXP.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LXP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.23
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  430
  439
  449
  460
  473
  488
  503
  520
  539
  559
  580
  603
  628
  654
  682
  711
  742
  775
  810
  847
  886
  927
  970
  1,016
  1,064
  1,115
  1,168
  1,224
  1,283
  1,345
  1,411
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  268
  275
  282
  290
  298
  308
  318
  330
  342
  355
  369
  384
  400
  417
  435
  454
  474
  496
  518
  542
  567
  594
  622
  651
  682
  715
  749
  785
  823
  863
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  346
  268
  275
  282
  290
  298
  308
  318
  330
  342
  355
  369
  384
  400
  417
  435
  454
  474
  496
  518
  542
  567
  594
  622
  651
  682
  715
  749
  785
  823
  863
Operating income, $m
  84
  170
  174
  179
  184
  189
  195
  202
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  264
  276
  288
  301
  314
  329
  344
  360
  376
  394
  413
  432
  453
  475
  498
  522
  547
EBITDA, $m
  254
  344
  351
  361
  371
  382
  394
  408
  422
  438
  455
  473
  492
  512
  534
  557
  581
  607
  635
  663
  694
  726
  760
  796
  833
  873
  915
  959
  1,005
  1,054
  1,105
Interest expense (income), $m
  88
  82
  84
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  124
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  196
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
Earnings before tax, $m
  90
  88
  90
  93
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
Tax expense, $m
  1
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
Net income, $m
  96
  64
  66
  68
  69
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  87
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,441
  3,427
  3,505
  3,595
  3,697
  3,809
  3,932
  4,066
  4,210
  4,367
  4,534
  4,713
  4,905
  5,108
  5,325
  5,555
  5,798
  6,056
  6,328
  6,616
  6,920
  7,241
  7,579
  7,936
  8,311
  8,707
  9,124
  9,562
  10,024
  10,509
  11,020
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,354
  3,427
  3,505
  3,595
  3,697
  3,809
  3,932
  4,066
  4,210
  4,367
  4,534
  4,713
  4,905
  5,108
  5,325
  5,555
  5,798
  6,056
  6,328
  6,616
  6,920
  7,241
  7,579
  7,936
  8,311
  8,707
  9,124
  9,562
  10,024
  10,509
  11,020
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
Average production assets, $m
  3,213
  3,277
  3,353
  3,439
  3,535
  3,643
  3,760
  3,888
  4,027
  4,176
  4,337
  4,508
  4,691
  4,886
  5,093
  5,313
  5,545
  5,792
  6,052
  6,328
  6,619
  6,925
  7,249
  7,590
  7,949
  8,328
  8,726
  9,145
  9,587
  10,051
  10,539
Working capital, $m
  0
  -89
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -98
  -102
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -285
Total debt, $m
  1,861
  1,907
  1,955
  2,010
  2,072
  2,140
  2,215
  2,297
  2,386
  2,481
  2,583
  2,693
  2,810
  2,934
  3,067
  3,207
  3,356
  3,513
  3,680
  3,855
  4,041
  4,237
  4,444
  4,662
  4,891
  5,133
  5,388
  5,656
  5,937
  6,234
  6,546
Total liabilities, $m
  2,049
  2,094
  2,142
  2,197
  2,259
  2,327
  2,402
  2,484
  2,573
  2,668
  2,770
  2,880
  2,997
  3,121
  3,254
  3,394
  3,543
  3,700
  3,867
  4,042
  4,228
  4,424
  4,631
  4,849
  5,078
  5,320
  5,575
  5,843
  6,124
  6,421
  6,733
Total equity, $m
  1,393
  1,333
  1,364
  1,399
  1,438
  1,482
  1,529
  1,581
  1,638
  1,699
  1,764
  1,834
  1,908
  1,987
  2,071
  2,161
  2,255
  2,356
  2,462
  2,574
  2,692
  2,817
  2,948
  3,087
  3,233
  3,387
  3,549
  3,720
  3,899
  4,088
  4,287
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,442
  3,427
  3,506
  3,596
  3,697
  3,809
  3,931
  4,065
  4,211
  4,367
  4,534
  4,714
  4,905
  5,108
  5,325
  5,555
  5,798
  6,056
  6,329
  6,616
  6,920
  7,241
  7,579
  7,936
  8,311
  8,707
  9,124
  9,563
  10,023
  10,509
  11,020
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.336
  1.430
  1.430
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.470
  1.470
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  96
  64
  66
  68
  69
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  170
  173
  177
  182
  187
  193
  199
  206
  213
  221
  229
  239
  248
  259
  269
  281
  293
  306
  320
  335
  350
  366
  384
  402
  421
  441
  462
  484
  507
  532
  558
Funds from operations, $m
  231
  238
  243
  250
  257
  264
  273
  282
  292
  303
  314
  326
  340
  353
  368
  384
  401
  418
  437
  456
  477
  499
  522
  547
  572
  599
  628
  658
  689
  722
  757
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
Cash from operations, $m
  235
  240
  245
  252
  259
  267
  276
  285
  296
  307
  318
  331
  344
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  507
  531
  556
  582
  609
  638
  669
  701
  735
  770
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -170
  -173
  -177
  -182
  -187
  -193
  -199
  -206
  -213
  -221
  -229
  -239
  -248
  -259
  -269
  -281
  -293
  -306
  -320
  -335
  -350
  -366
  -384
  -402
  -421
  -441
  -462
  -484
  -507
  -532
New CAPEX, $m
  -304
  -64
  -75
  -86
  -97
  -107
  -118
  -128
  -139
  -149
  -160
  -171
  -183
  -195
  -207
  -220
  -233
  -246
  -261
  -275
  -291
  -307
  -324
  -341
  -359
  -378
  -398
  -419
  -441
  -464
  -488
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -234
  -248
  -263
  -279
  -294
  -311
  -327
  -345
  -362
  -381
  -400
  -422
  -443
  -466
  -489
  -514
  -539
  -567
  -595
  -626
  -657
  -690
  -725
  -761
  -799
  -839
  -881
  -925
  -971
  -1,020
Free cash flow, $m
  225
  5
  -4
  -12
  -20
  -27
  -34
  -42
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -92
  -99
  -107
  -115
  -123
  -132
  -140
  -150
  -159
  -169
  -179
  -190
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -237
  -250
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -33
  46
  48
  55
  62
  68
  75
  82
  89
  95
  102
  110
  117
  124
  132
  140
  149
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  312
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -66
  46
  48
  55
  62
  68
  75
  82
  89
  95
  102
  110
  117
  124
  132
  140
  149
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  312
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  159
  51
  45
  43
  42
  41
  41
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  41
  41
  42
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  47
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -179
  -189
  -199
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  87
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  111
  14
  8
  3
  -2
  -7
  -12
  -16
  -21
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -137
Discount rate, %
 
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  102
  12
  6
  2
  -1
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Lexington Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company owns a portfolio of equity and debt investments in single-tenant commercial properties. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had equity ownership interests in approximately 195 consolidated real estate properties, located in 40 states and containing an aggregate of approximately 43.3 million square feet of space, approximately 96.0% of which was leased. The Company conducts its operations either directly or indirectly through property owner subsidiaries and lender subsidiaries, which are single purpose entities; an operating partnership, Lepercq Corporate Income Fund L.P. (LCIF), in which the Company is the sole unit holder of the general partner and the sole unit holder of the limited partner that holds a majority of the limited partner interests; Lexington Realty Advisors, Inc. (LRA), a subsidiary of the Company, and investments in joint ventures.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lexington Realty Trust (LXP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.9
Price to Sales 5.8
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -36.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -41.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 133.6%
Total Debt to Equity 133.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Equity 6.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 88.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.6%
EBITDA Margin 80.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.2%
Operating Margin 19.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Net Profit Margin 22.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.4%
Effective Tax Rate 1.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Payout Ratio 172.9%

LXP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LXP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $430 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lexington Realty Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lexington Realty Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LXP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for LXP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lexington Realty Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lexington Realty Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LXP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LXP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.4% for Lexington Realty Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lexington Realty Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LXP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LXP are equal to 747.2%.

Life of production assets of 18.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lexington Realty Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LXP is equal to -20.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1393 million for Lexington Realty Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 241.87 million for Lexington Realty Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lexington Realty Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is It Time To Buy Lexington Realty Trust (LXP)?   [Sep-11-17 12:21PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 9 Stocks Due For Dividend Increases This Fall   [Aug-28-17 09:22AM  Forbes]
▶ Lexington Realty reports 2Q results   [Aug-08-17 09:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Lexington Realty reports 1Q results   [May-09-17 06:30AM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Top Dividend Stocks in Diversified REITs   [01:23PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Lexington Realty reports 4Q results   [06:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lexington Realty Trust Final Dividend Allocation for 2016   [Jan-18-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ REIT Pivots That Paid Off   [Jan-16-17 07:00AM  at Forbes]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting On Lexington Realty Trust (LXP)   [Dec-05-16 07:02AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of LXP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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