Intrinsic value of Macy's Inc - M

Previous Close

$23.31

  Intrinsic Value

$39.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+70%

Previous close

$23.31

 
Intrinsic value

$39.54

 
Up/down potential

+70%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of M stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  25,408
  26,061
  26,794
  27,607
  28,498
  29,469
  30,519
  31,651
  32,866
  34,165
  35,552
  37,028
  38,597
  40,262
  42,026
  43,894
  45,869
  47,956
  50,160
  52,485
  54,937
  57,521
  60,244
  63,112
  66,132
  69,310
  72,655
  76,174
  79,875
  83,767
Variable operating expenses, $m
  24,102
  24,711
  25,393
  26,150
  26,980
  27,884
  28,862
  29,916
  31,048
  32,258
  33,111
  34,486
  35,947
  37,498
  39,141
  40,881
  42,720
  44,664
  46,716
  48,881
  51,165
  53,572
  56,108
  58,779
  61,592
  64,552
  67,667
  70,944
  74,391
  78,016
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  24,102
  24,711
  25,393
  26,150
  26,980
  27,884
  28,862
  29,916
  31,048
  32,258
  33,111
  34,486
  35,947
  37,498
  39,141
  40,881
  42,720
  44,664
  46,716
  48,881
  51,165
  53,572
  56,108
  58,779
  61,592
  64,552
  67,667
  70,944
  74,391
  78,016
Operating income, $m
  1,306
  1,351
  1,401
  1,457
  1,518
  1,585
  1,657
  1,734
  1,818
  1,907
  2,441
  2,542
  2,650
  2,764
  2,885
  3,014
  3,149
  3,292
  3,444
  3,603
  3,772
  3,949
  4,136
  4,333
  4,540
  4,759
  4,988
  5,230
  5,484
  5,751
EBITDA, $m
  2,563
  2,629
  2,703
  2,785
  2,875
  2,972
  3,078
  3,193
  3,315
  3,446
  3,586
  3,735
  3,893
  4,061
  4,239
  4,427
  4,627
  4,837
  5,059
  5,294
  5,541
  5,802
  6,077
  6,366
  6,671
  6,991
  7,329
  7,683
  8,057
  8,449
Interest expense (income), $m
  396
  318
  335
  355
  377
  402
  428
  458
  489
  523
  560
  599
  641
  685
  733
  783
  836
  892
  952
  1,014
  1,081
  1,151
  1,225
  1,302
  1,384
  1,471
  1,562
  1,657
  1,758
  1,864
  1,975
Earnings before tax, $m
  988
  1,015
  1,046
  1,080
  1,116
  1,156
  1,199
  1,245
  1,294
  1,347
  1,842
  1,901
  1,965
  2,032
  2,103
  2,178
  2,257
  2,341
  2,429
  2,523
  2,621
  2,725
  2,834
  2,949
  3,070
  3,197
  3,331
  3,472
  3,620
  3,776
Tax expense, $m
  267
  274
  282
  292
  301
  312
  324
  336
  350
  364
  497
  513
  530
  549
  568
  588
  609
  632
  656
  681
  708
  736
  765
  796
  829
  863
  899
  937
  977
  1,019
Net income, $m
  721
  741
  764
  788
  815
  844
  875
  909
  945
  983
  1,344
  1,388
  1,434
  1,483
  1,535
  1,590
  1,648
  1,709
  1,773
  1,842
  1,913
  1,989
  2,069
  2,153
  2,241
  2,334
  2,432
  2,534
  2,643
  2,756

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  20,038
  20,553
  21,131
  21,772
  22,475
  23,240
  24,069
  24,961
  25,919
  26,944
  28,038
  29,202
  30,439
  31,752
  33,144
  34,617
  36,175
  37,820
  39,558
  41,392
  43,325
  45,364
  47,511
  49,773
  52,155
  54,661
  57,299
  60,074
  62,993
  66,062
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  20,038
  20,553
  21,131
  21,772
  22,475
  23,240
  24,069
  24,961
  25,919
  26,944
  28,038
  29,202
  30,439
  31,752
  33,144
  34,617
  36,175
  37,820
  39,558
  41,392
  43,325
  45,364
  47,511
  49,773
  52,155
  54,661
  57,299
  60,074
  62,993
  66,062
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
  1.268
Average production assets, $m
  9,249
  9,486
  9,753
  10,049
  10,373
  10,727
  11,109
  11,521
  11,963
  12,436
  12,941
  13,478
  14,049
  14,655
  15,298
  15,977
  16,696
  17,456
  18,258
  19,104
  19,997
  20,938
  21,929
  22,973
  24,072
  25,229
  26,446
  27,727
  29,074
  30,491
Working capital, $m
  1,067
  1,095
  1,125
  1,159
  1,197
  1,238
  1,282
  1,329
  1,380
  1,435
  1,493
  1,555
  1,621
  1,691
  1,765
  1,844
  1,927
  2,014
  2,107
  2,204
  2,307
  2,416
  2,530
  2,651
  2,778
  2,911
  3,052
  3,199
  3,355
  3,518
Total debt, $m
  6,212
  6,576
  6,985
  7,438
  7,935
  8,476
  9,062
  9,693
  10,370
  11,094
  11,868
  12,691
  13,566
  14,494
  15,478
  16,519
  17,620
  18,784
  20,013
  21,309
  22,676
  24,117
  25,635
  27,235
  28,918
  30,691
  32,555
  34,517
  36,581
  38,751
Total liabilities, $m
  14,167
  14,531
  14,940
  15,393
  15,890
  16,431
  17,017
  17,648
  18,325
  19,049
  19,823
  20,646
  21,521
  22,449
  23,433
  24,474
  25,575
  26,739
  27,968
  29,264
  30,631
  32,072
  33,590
  35,190
  36,873
  38,646
  40,510
  42,472
  44,536
  46,706
Total equity, $m
  5,871
  6,022
  6,191
  6,379
  6,585
  6,809
  7,052
  7,314
  7,594
  7,895
  8,215
  8,556
  8,919
  9,303
  9,711
  10,143
  10,599
  11,081
  11,591
  12,128
  12,694
  13,292
  13,921
  14,584
  15,281
  16,016
  16,789
  17,602
  18,457
  19,356
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  20,038
  20,553
  21,131
  21,772
  22,475
  23,240
  24,069
  24,962
  25,919
  26,944
  28,038
  29,202
  30,440
  31,752
  33,144
  34,617
  36,174
  37,820
  39,559
  41,392
  43,325
  45,364
  47,511
  49,774
  52,154
  54,662
  57,299
  60,074
  62,993
  66,062
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.060
  1.090
  1.130
  1.170
  1.200
  1.240
  1.280
  1.330
  1.370
  1.410
  1.440
  1.480
  1.520
  1.560
  1.590
  1.630
  1.660
  1.700
  1.730
  1.760
  1.790
  1.810
  1.840
  1.870
  1.890
  1.920
  1.940
  1.960
  1.980
  2.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  721
  741
  764
  788
  815
  844
  875
  909
  945
  983
  1,344
  1,388
  1,434
  1,483
  1,535
  1,590
  1,648
  1,709
  1,773
  1,842
  1,913
  1,989
  2,069
  2,153
  2,241
  2,334
  2,432
  2,534
  2,643
  2,756
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,257
  1,278
  1,302
  1,328
  1,356
  1,388
  1,422
  1,458
  1,497
  1,539
  1,145
  1,193
  1,243
  1,297
  1,354
  1,414
  1,478
  1,545
  1,616
  1,691
  1,770
  1,853
  1,941
  2,033
  2,130
  2,233
  2,340
  2,454
  2,573
  2,698
Funds from operations, $m
  1,978
  2,019
  2,065
  2,116
  2,171
  2,232
  2,297
  2,367
  2,442
  2,522
  2,490
  2,581
  2,677
  2,780
  2,889
  3,004
  3,125
  3,254
  3,389
  3,532
  3,683
  3,842
  4,009
  4,186
  4,371
  4,566
  4,772
  4,988
  5,215
  5,455
Change in working capital, $m
  24
  27
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  127
  133
  140
  148
  155
  163
Cash from operations, $m
  1,954
  1,992
  2,034
  2,082
  2,134
  2,191
  2,253
  2,319
  2,391
  2,468
  2,431
  2,519
  2,612
  2,710
  2,815
  2,925
  3,042
  3,166
  3,297
  3,435
  3,580
  3,733
  3,895
  4,065
  4,244
  4,433
  4,631
  4,840
  5,060
  5,291
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -800
  -818
  -839
  -863
  -889
  -918
  -949
  -983
  -1,020
  -1,059
  -1,101
  -1,145
  -1,193
  -1,243
  -1,297
  -1,354
  -1,414
  -1,478
  -1,545
  -1,616
  -1,691
  -1,770
  -1,853
  -1,941
  -2,033
  -2,130
  -2,233
  -2,340
  -2,454
  -2,573
New CAPEX, $m
  -209
  -238
  -267
  -296
  -324
  -353
  -382
  -412
  -442
  -473
  -505
  -537
  -571
  -606
  -642
  -680
  -719
  -760
  -802
  -846
  -893
  -941
  -991
  -1,044
  -1,099
  -1,157
  -1,217
  -1,281
  -1,347
  -1,417
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,009
  -1,056
  -1,106
  -1,159
  -1,213
  -1,271
  -1,331
  -1,395
  -1,462
  -1,532
  -1,606
  -1,682
  -1,764
  -1,849
  -1,939
  -2,034
  -2,133
  -2,238
  -2,347
  -2,462
  -2,584
  -2,711
  -2,844
  -2,985
  -3,132
  -3,287
  -3,450
  -3,621
  -3,801
  -3,990
Free cash flow, $m
  945
  936
  928
  923
  920
  920
  921
  924
  929
  936
  826
  836
  848
  861
  875
  892
  909
  929
  950
  972
  997
  1,023
  1,051
  1,080
  1,112
  1,146
  1,181
  1,219
  1,259
  1,301
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  329
  364
  409
  453
  497
  541
  586
  631
  677
  725
  773
  823
  875
  928
  984
  1,041
  1,101
  1,164
  1,229
  1,296
  1,367
  1,441
  1,518
  1,599
  1,684
  1,772
  1,865
  1,962
  2,064
  2,170
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  329
  364
  409
  453
  497
  541
  586
  631
  677
  725
  773
  823
  875
  928
  984
  1,041
  1,101
  1,164
  1,229
  1,296
  1,367
  1,441
  1,518
  1,599
  1,684
  1,772
  1,865
  1,962
  2,064
  2,170
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,274
  1,300
  1,337
  1,376
  1,417
  1,461
  1,507
  1,555
  1,607
  1,661
  1,599
  1,659
  1,723
  1,789
  1,859
  1,933
  2,011
  2,092
  2,178
  2,269
  2,364
  2,464
  2,569
  2,680
  2,796
  2,918
  3,046
  3,181
  3,323
  3,472
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -126
  -151
  -169
  -188
  -206
  -224
  -243
  -262
  -281
  -300
  -320
  -341
  -363
  -385
  -408
  -432
  -456
  -482
  -509
  -537
  -567
  -597
  -629
  -663
  -698
  -734
  -773
  -813
  -855
  -899
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,148
  1,149
  1,167
  1,188
  1,211
  1,237
  1,264
  1,294
  1,326
  1,360
  1,279
  1,318
  1,360
  1,404
  1,452
  1,501
  1,554
  1,610
  1,669
  1,732
  1,797
  1,867
  1,940
  2,017
  2,098
  2,183
  2,273
  2,368
  2,467
  2,572
Discount rate, %
  5.30
  5.57
  5.84
  6.14
  6.44
  6.76
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.52
  9.99
  10.49
  11.02
  11.57
  12.15
  12.76
  13.39
  14.06
  14.77
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.95
  18.85
  19.79
  20.78
  21.82
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,090
  1,031
  985
  936
  887
  835
  782
  728
  673
  617
  514
  465
  417
  370
  325
  282
  242
  204
  171
  140
  113
  90
  70
  54
  41
  30
  21
  15
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Macy's, Inc. is an omnichannel retail company operating stores, Websites and mobile applications under various brands, such as Macy's, Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury. The Company sells a range of merchandise, including apparel and accessories (men's, women's and children's), cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods. Its subsidiaries provide various support functions to its retail operations. Its bank subsidiary, FDS Bank, provides credit processing, certain collections, customer service and credit marketing services in respect of all credit card accounts that are owned either by Department Stores National Bank (DSNB), which is a subsidiary of Citibank N.A., or FDS Bank. The private label brands offered by the Company include Alfani, American Rag, Aqua, Bar III, Belgique, Charter Club, Club Room, Epic Threads, first impressions, Giani Bernini, Greg Norman for Tasso Elba, Holiday Lane, Home Design, Hotel Collection, John Ashford, Karen Scott, Thalia Sodi and lune+aster.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Macy's Inc (M)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.5
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -18.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 151.8%
Total Debt to Equity 158.9%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Total Capital 5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Equity 14.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.5%
EBITDA Margin 9.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Operating Margin 5.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Effective Tax Rate 35.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.1%
Payout Ratio 74.2%

M stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the M stock intrinsic value calculation we used $24837 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Macy's Inc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Macy's Inc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our M stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.3%, whose default value for M is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Macy's Inc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Macy's Inc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of M stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for M stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Macy's Inc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Macy's Inc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the M stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for M are equal to 36.4%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Macy's Inc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for M is equal to 4.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5745 million for Macy's Inc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 307.465 million for Macy's Inc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Macy's Inc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.2 billion.

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